Evelyn Reynolds

India’s economy expanded by 5.4% in its second fiscal quarter ending September.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast growth of 6.5% for the period, while the Reserve Bank of India expected an expansion of 7%.
Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, said India’s economy will slow but not “collapse” in 2025.

Construction workers in Mumbai, India, on June 5, 2024. 
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

India’s economy expanded by just 5.4% in its second fiscal quarter ending September, well below estimates by economists and close to a two-year low.
The print follows 6.7% growth over the previous quarter and is the lowest reading since the last quarter of 2022. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast growth of 6.5% for the period, while the Reserve Bank of India expected an expansion of 7%.

The country’s statistics agency noted sluggish growth in manufacturing and the mining sector.
The yield on the country’s 10-year sovereign bond quickly sank to 6.74% after the release, from around 6.8%.
The weak GDP reading could potentially affect the country’s interest rate trajectory, with the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee scheduled to meet between Dec. 6-8. Markets watchers had been expecting an eleventh consecutive pause by the RBI, with the repo rate currently at 6.5%.
Harry Chambers, an assistant economist at Capital Economics, said the Friday reading showed that weakness was “broad based.” His firm expects economic activity “to struggle over the coming quarters.”
“That bolsters the case for policy loosening, but the recent jump in inflation means the RBI won’t feel comfortable cutting interest rates for a few more months yet,” he said in research note.

Speaking to CNBC “Squawk Box Asia” before the GDP release, Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, forecast that India’s economy will slow but not “collapse” in 2025.
She said that Natixis has a 2025 growth forecast of 6.4% for India — without clarifying whether this refers to the fiscal or calendar year — but added that the print could also come in as low as 6%, which she qualified as “not a bit problem, but it’s not welcome.”
Separately, the RBI projected that GDP growth for the 2024 fiscal year ending in March 2025 will reach a higher 7.2%.
Asked how India’s economy will fare under President-elect Donald Trump’s second presidency, Herrero said the country is “not really at the center of the reshuffling of the value chain that China has been conducting.”
“If I were the Trump administration, I would start [looking at tariffs for] Vietnam. That’s a much more obvious case,” she noted.
She said that China could make products in India for Indian consumption instead of exporting products globally — and as such, New Delhi could avoid getting hit by tariffs. More

Annual euro zone inflation rose to 2.3% in November, statistics agency Eurostat said Friday.
While it takes price rises back above the European Central Bank’s 2% target, the increase was expected and primarily down to effects from the energy market.

The stalls at the 590th Dresden Striezelmarkt are brightly lit at the opening.
Sebastian Kahnert | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Annual euro zone inflation rose to 2.3% in November, statistics agency Eurostat said Friday, climbing back above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the 2.3% annual rate for the month, up from 2% in October.

Price rises in the bloc have ticked higher for two straight months after dropping to 1.7% in September, as was expected due to the fading deflationary pull from energy prices.
Core inflation, excluding volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, held at 2.7% for a third straight month in November.
The core rate is being propped up by the stickiness of services inflation, which only slid slightly to 3.9% in November from 4% during the previous month.

Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut from the ECB in December, which would mark the institution’s fourth trim of the year.
Speculation that the central bank could be pushed into a larger 50-basis-point cut has faded since last month, after slight improvements in the weak euro area growth outlook and a rebound in inflation.

Inflation came in slightly higher than forecast in October, while ECB policymakers, including executive board member Isabel Schnabel, have stressed the need for caution in monetary easing.
The ECB’s decision will largely be informed by the latest staff macroeconomic projections it will receive just ahead of its upcoming Dec. 12 meeting. The central bank will also be weighing the potential global impact of the recent election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, including whether he will follow through on his threats of universal trade tariffs and how such a step would impact European Union exports.

The euro was little-changed against the U.S. dollar and British pound following the data release.
Kyle Chapman, FX market analyst at Ballinger Group, said in an emailed note that the uptick in headline inflation was solely down to year-on-year energy price volatility, and that the ECB would look favorably on a 0.9 percentage point fall in month-on-month services inflation.  
“With the growth picture looking soft, there is still no doubt that inflation will fall to 2% on a sustainable basis next year,” Chapman said, adding that the market nonetheless appeared to have settled on a 25-basis-point move in December.
“The economy is not falling off a cliff just yet and there is uncertainty about where the neutral rate is, so there is no pressing need to start frontloading cuts,” he noted.
Melanie Debono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the inflation figures, combined with recent data showing record low unemployment and higher negotiated wage growth in the third quarter, will prevent a 50-basis-point cut.
The final monetary policy decision will nevertheless remain a “close call,” with the more dovish members of the ECB pushing hard for a 50-basis-point trim, Debono said. If the central bank does stick with a 25-basis-point move, it will likely follow this step with cuts of the same size at both of its following meetings in January and March, she added. More

The potential positive shock of AI on the U.S.’s fiscal health could help lower the fiscal deficit, according to a study from the Brookings Institution.
The report forecasts AI could lower the U.S. budget deficit by 1.5% of GDP by 2044.
The incoming Trump administration raises questions as to how AI might be implemented in delivering health care services.

Just_super | E+ | Getty Images

Can artificial intelligence be so transformative as to solve one of the U.S. economy’s biggest problems: its skyrocketing fiscal deficit? According to three economists at the Brookings Institution, the answer is yes — AI could prove a positive “critical shock” for the country’s fiscal health. 
A working paper released last month by the Center on Regulation and Markets at Brookings projects that under the most optimistic scenario, AI could reduce the annual U.S. budget deficit by as much as 1.5% of gross domestic product by 2044, or about $900 billion in nominal terms, lowering annual budget deficits by roughly one fifth at the end of the 20-year span.

“The use of AI presents the rare — possibly unique — opportunity to expand access to health care information and services while simultaneously reducing the burden on the conventional health care system,” the paper’s authors, Ben Harris, Neil Mehotra and Eric So, wrote.
While the authors name various channels through which AI can increase productivity, they highlight AI’s potential to dramatically improve health care services and public health. 
Not only could AI make American health care more efficient, it might also “democratize” access to the system by giving people more options for preventative medical care — “changing the ‘who’ and ‘where’ of health care,” the economists wrote.
AI could ease deficit pressure
The economic impacts of a more efficient health care system, and giving individuals more paths to manage their own health, could ease pressure on the government’s yawning fiscal deficit, which topped $1.8 trillion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30. The national debt stands at $36 trillion.
But adopting AI in health care services isn’t a sure thing. Plenty of impediments stand in the way of widely implementing AI, largely tied to regulation and incentives.

Economists’ outlook on AI and health care is “a mix of enthusiasm and despair,” said Ajay Agrawal, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management ,where he researches the economics of artificial intelligence.
“Enthusiasm because there’s probably no sector that stands to benefit more from AI than health care. … But there’s friction due to regulation, due to incentives —  because of the way things are structured and how people are paid for things — and friction due to the associated risks and liabilities,” Agrawal said. 
“So yes, there’s lots of implementation challenges, and at the same time, the prize for succeeding at this is very big,” Agrawal said. 
Health care and the deficit
The federal government spent an estimated $1.8 trillion on health insurance in 2023, or around 7% of GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office. From 2024 to 2033, the CBO forecasts federal subsidies for health care will total $25 trillion, or 8.3% of GDP. 
The problem is that so much health care spending in the U.S. isn’t tied to treatment or patient outcomes. Instead, about a quarter of all spending, public and private, is estimated to go toward administrative functions.
“Nearly every industry in the U.S. has experienced substantial improvements in productivity over the last 50 years, with 1 major exception: health care,” according to a report by McKinsey analysts. 
This is one area where AI could improve operations, according to the Brookings Institution economists. Basic tasks such as appointment scheduling can be automated, while tasks such as patient flow management and preliminary data analysis can also be done by AI programs.
While the three economists acknowledge that the impact of AI on federal spending is still “highly uncertain,” the coauthors believe it could ultimately be more transformative for the economy than past technological leaps, such as the use of personal computers in the 1990s. The current AI shock “feels different. This isn’t your typical technological shock,” Harris told CNBC.
AI is affecting “how people receive health care,” how the drug industry discovers new products and how researchers make medicine more precise, Harris said.
Disease and death rates
In particular, Harris underscored AI’s impact not just on productivity, but also its potential to transform the cost of care and the rates of illness, disease and death. 
“Such changes could have profound impacts on Social Security and public health program outlays,” he and his coauthors wrote.
To be sure, there is also the potential that AI advancements could counterintuitively increase federal spending if the average lifespan increases as a result of the technology. Not only could improved technology lead people to seek more medical care, longer lifespans might also result in a larger retired population.
But the Brookings paper takes a more optimistic tack, predicting one of AI’s largest benefits will result from accelerating the efficacy of preventative care and disease detection. This will create a healthier population that will need less medical intervention, the authors wrote — and might also increase labor force participation rates if a healthier workforce stays employed for more years.
“AI’s ability to improve diagnostic accuracy can not only improve patient outcomes but also reduce wasteful spending on inappropriate treatments,” the economists said. “From a more optimistic perspective, existing AI systems may lower expenditures on all health spending, including Medicare, with cost reductions occurring through several channels—with personalized medicine being a prominent example.”
Evaluating whether AI can ultimately translate into a positive or negative shock on fiscal policy will depend on what stage of the age distribution it affects, Agrawal said. Whether AI is “having its bigger impact on retired people, or around working people,” will answer how the numbers play out, Agrawal said. 
AI proliferating already
So far, diagnostics has shown the most advances and greatest potential in applying AI in health care. Agrawal cited AI’s influence throughout almost all the steps of diagnostic care, from receiving input data, medical imagery such as X-rays and MRIs, as well as doctor notes, charts. 
“In almost every area of diagnosis, AI has, in some cases, already demonstrated what they call ‘superhuman performance’ — better than than most docs,” Agrawal said. 
AI has also shown “significant promise” in better optimizing treatment plans for patients through data analysis. Machine intelligence can develop more effective and less costly plans for individual patients, according to the authors of the paper. 
Agrawal believes it’s too early to say whether public or private health systems will take better advantage of AI. In the U.S., private insurers have generally been more keen on AI technology associated with preventative treatment, he said. There’s been less interest in using AI in diagnostic applications, possibly that might lead to a rise in cases and more treatment, he said. 
“There aren’t clear economic incentives for the private sector to [implement] that,” said Agrawal. “In the public sector, even though there are incentives, there are a lot of frictions associated with privacy on the data side.” 
He believes public-private partnerships will be key in driving the rollout of AI across health care. 
The public health care sector “will need very strong incentives in order to drive change, because otherwise, everybody is in their routine. There’s a lot of resistance to change,” Agrawal said. 
“So to get over that resistance, you need a very strong motivator, and the private sector generally provides a much stronger motivator, either because the users are trying to reduce cost, or the creators of the technology are trying to generate profit,” he continued. 
Large tech companies have already pushed forward in developing large language models specifically for health care services. Google’s AI system, Articulate Medical Intelligence Explore (AMIE), mimics diagnostic dialogue. Its Med-Gemini platform uses AI to aid in diagnosis, treatment planning and clinical decision support. Amazon and Microsoft have their own projects underway to expand the application of AI programs in health services.
Outlook under Trump 
President-elect Donald Trump’s second term could alter the rollout of AI in health care, and ultimately, its economic impact. Trump has vowed to reduce government spending and formed an outside panel called the Department of Government Efficiency designed to “dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies.” Public health funding is one area that could reduced funding, frustrating the ability to roll out AI applications.  
“Now, it is possible that if you do see a retreat in the federal government’s role in providing health care to people, that more efficient AI could help compensate for the cost of that retreat,” said Harris. “If AI means that each dollar goes farther, then I think we’ve timed everything in a sort of lucky way.” 
There’s also the chance that rolling back regulations under a second Trump administration could expedite the implementation of AI across health care. 
“Many people are fearful of reducing regulation because they don’t want technologies that are immature to be brought into the health care system and harm people,” Agrawal said. “And that’s a very legitimate concern. But very often what they fail to also put into their equation is the harm we’re causing people by not bringing” in new technologies, he added. 
“Some areas need a lot more technical development, but there are some domains in diagnosis that are already ready to go, and it’s just regulation that’s preventing them from being used,” Agrawal said.  More

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.2% on the month and showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.3%, both in line with expectations.
Core inflation showed even stronger readings, with an increase at 0.3% on a monthly basis and an annual reading of 2.8%, also as forecast.
Spending rose 0.4% on the month, as forecast, while personal income jumped 0.6%, well above the 0.3% estimate.

Inflation edged higher in October as the Federal Reserve is looking for clues on how much it should lower interest rates, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, a broad measure the Fed prefers as its inflation gauge, increased 0.2% on the month and showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.3%. Both were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast, though the annual rate was higher than the 2.1% level in September.

Excluding food and energy, core inflation showed even stronger readings, with the increase at 0.3% on a monthly basis and an annual reading of 2.8%. Both also met expectations. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above the prior month.
Services prices generated most of the inflation for the month, rising 0.4%, while goods fell 0.1%. Food prices were little changed, while energy was off 0.1%.
Fed policymakers target inflation at a 2% annual rate. PCE inflation has been above that level since March 2021 and peaked around 7.2% in June 2022, prompting the Fed to go an on aggressive rate-hiking campaign.
Stocks were mixed following the release, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up about 100 points, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were both negative. Treasury yields fell.
Despite the rise in headline inflation, traders increased their bets that the Fed would approve another rate cut in December. Odds of a quarter-percentage-point reduction in the central bank’s key borrowing rate were at 66% Wednesday morning, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.

While the inflation rate has dropped significantly since the Fed started tightening, it remains a nettlesome problem for households and figured prominently into the presidential race. Despite its deceleration over the past two years, the cumulative effects of inflation have hit consumers hard, particularly on the lower end of the wage scale.
Consumer spending was still solid in October, though it tailed off a bit from September. Current-dollar expenditures rose 0.4% on the month, as forecast, while personal income jumped 0.6%, well above the 0.3% estimate, the report showed.
The personal saving rate slipped to 4.4%, tied for its lowest since January 2023.
On the inflation side, housing-related costs have continued to boost the numbers, despite expectations that the pace would cool as rents eased. Housing prices rose 0.4% in October.
The Fed follows a broad dashboard of indicators to gauge inflation but uses the PCE figure specifically for its forecasting and as its main policy tool. The data is considered broader than the Labor Department’s consumer price index and adjusts for behavior in consumer spending such as replacing more expensive items for less costly ones.
Officials tend to consider core inflation as a better long-term gauge but use both numbers in considering policy moves.
The release follows consecutive rate cuts by the Fed in September and November totaling three quarters of a percentage point. Though the November reduction happened after the month the report covers, markets had been widely anticipating the move.
Fed officials at their November meeting indicated confidence that inflation was moving toward the 2% target, though members advocated a gradual reduction in interest rates as they acknowledged uncertainty over how much cuts will be needed.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More