Evelyn Reynolds

The producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for September, in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
However, excluding food and energy, the index rose just 0.1%, below the 0.2% estimate.
Retail sales increased 0.2% in September, a bit softer than the 0.3% forecast. However, sales excluding autos rose 0.3%, in line with the estimate.

Core wholesale prices rose less than expected in September, indicating a potential cooling in pipeline inflation pressures, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
The producer price index, a measure of what producers get for final demand goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% on the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

However, excluding food and energy, the index rose just 0.1%, below the 0.2% estimate. Both core and headline PPI had decreased 0.1% in August. Headline PPI was up 2.7% from a year ago, while core rose 2.6%.
In an era of tariff-driven cost pressures for imports, goods prices drove the PPI increase, rising 0.9% on the month, while services prices were flat. The jump in goods prices was the biggest since February 2024, according to BLS data.
Final demand energy prices jumped 3.5% for the month, while food rose 1.1%. Of the energy increase, much of that was tied to an 11.8% surge in gasoline.
On the services side, transportation and warehousing prices rose 0.8%, while airline passenger fees surged 4%.
The September PPI release, like most other major official data points, was delayed due to the government shutdown. The BLS may not release October PPI data, as it already has canceled the October consumer price index report. November’s CPI is due out Dec. 18. The PPI release is usually timed around the CPI.

In other economic news Tuesday, the Census Bureau said retail sales increased 0.2% in September, a bit softer than the 0.3% forecast. However, sales excluding autos rose 0.3%, in line with the estimate.
Miscellaneous retailers saw a 2.9% increase on the month, while gas stations, owing to the higher prices, increased 2%. Sporting goods, hobby and music stores saw a 2.5% decline while online sales were off 0.7%.
Sales at eating and drinking establishments, an indicator of discretionary spending, increased a solid 0.7% on the month and were up 6.7% from a year ago.
Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, increased 4.3% from a year ago, ahead of the 3% CPI rate for the month.
Correction: September headline PPI was up 2.7% from a year ago. An earlier version misstated the percentage. More

Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update it has been providing.
With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative data like ADP’s has been filling in the blanks on the economic picture.

A ‘Now Hiring’ sign sits in the window of a Denny’s restaurant on Nov. 19, 2025 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday.
Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update it has been providing. That’s an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs a week lost in the last update a week ago.

With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative data like ADP’s has been filling in the blanks on the economic picture.
Government agencies such as the Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but critical reports such as the monthly nonfarm payrolls count won’t come out until December.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve won’t have much of the usual data they use to make forecasts when they meet again Dec. 9-10. However, in recent days, several officials have advocated for additional interest rate cuts, causing the market to recalibrate expectations to now expecting a reduction at next month’s meeting.
“With the next jobs report now scheduled for December 16 and CPI for December 18, there is little on the calendar to derail a cut on December 10,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a client note Sunday.
When the releases do start rolling out, Hatzius said he expects that “alternative indicators show renewed job losses in October” even though the BLS last week reported better-than-expected 119,000 growth in payrolls for September.
The Goldman team expects the Fed to react with a cut in December and two more quarter percentage points reductions in 2026. More

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. was not at risk of entering a recession in 2026 and that Americans would soon benefit from President Donald Trump’s policies.
Bessent acknowledged there were parts of the economy showing signs of struggle, including housing and interest-rate-sensitive sectors.

Scott Bessent, US treasury secretary, arrives to speak during a site expansion groundbreaking ceremony at the Boeing South Carolina (BSC) manufacturing facility in North Charleston, South Carolina, US, on Friday, Nov. 7, 2025.
Sean Rayford | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday the U.S. was not at risk of entering a recession in 2026 and claimed Americans would soon benefit from the Trump administration’s economic policies on trade and taxes.
“I am very, very optimistic on 2026,” Bessent said in an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” “We have set the table for a very strong, noninflationary growth economy.”

Parts of the GOP’s massive spending package — the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act — are still going into effect and have yet to be felt in the economy, Bessent said. The new law makes permanent Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, along with a senior “bonus” to offset Social Security taxes and a bigger state and local tax deduction. The plan also has tax breaks for tip income, overtime pay and auto loans.
Health-care costs are also expected to become more affordable, Bessent added. The secretary said the Trump administration would have more news on that subject this week.
For now, a congressional deadlock tied to the extension of enhanced subsidies on the Affordable Care Act marketplace is expected to push up health-care costs for millions of people.
Bessent acknowledged that there are parts of the economy showing signs of struggle, including housing and interest-rate-sensitive sectors. He cited the services economy as contributing to inflation, claiming that lower energy prices will soon help to drive down prices.
Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, also said on Sunday that economic data from the fourth quarter could show weakness because of the government shutdown. The 43-day congressional stalemate in Washington, D.C., was the longest in U.S. history.

Around two-thirds of registered voters say the Trump administration has fallen short on the economy and the cost of living, a recent NBC News poll found.
Americans’ views of the economy largely depend on their income level, according to JPMorgan’s latest Cost of Living Survey.
High-income respondents rated their confidence a 6.2 out of 10 — with 10 being the best — on average, the bank found. More than half of this cohort chose a rating between 7 and 10. In contrast, low-income consumers reported a 4.4 score on average. More

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is the principal Federal agency responsible for measuring labor market activity, working conditions, and price changes in the economy.
Bill Clark | Getty Images

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it was canceling the release of the October consumer price index, leaving the Federal Reserve without a key piece of inflation data to ponder when it next decides on interest rates on Dec. 10.
The CPI data, previously scheduled to be released on Nov. 7, was canceled because the government shutdown made it impossible for the BLS to “retroactively collect” certain parts of survey data, the agency said on its website.

November’s CPI data, previously scheduled to be released on Dec. 10, will now be released on Dec. 18 after the Fed decision, the BLS said.
Bureau data collectors compile the index through several methods, including personal visits and phone calls that were not possible during the shutdown. The BLS also uses online data and household surveys that also would make it difficult to retroactively collect information.
In addition to the Fed announcement, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said another key inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, “is to be rescheduled” though no firm date has been announced. The Fed uses the PCE price index as its main inflation forecasting tool. The gauge had been set for release Nov. 26.
Fed officials have voiced concerns about being in a data fog as they try to formulate monetary policy. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee approved a quarter percentage point rate cut in late October, but minutes from the meeting reflected worries over getting an incomplete picture.
“This is a temporary state of affairs. And we’re going to do our jobs, we’re going to collect every scrap of data we can find, evaluate it, and think carefully about it,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the October meeting. “What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down. … There’s a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving.”

However, New York Fed President John Williams said Friday he thinks the Fed probably has “room for a further adjustment in the near term,” implying the likelihood of a cut sometime soon.
Other Fed officials, such as Governor Christopher Waller, have said policymakers still have enough information to make informed decisions, even with the data drought from the shutdown. More

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack on Thursday gave indications that she thinks the central bank could be nearing the end of what could be a brief rate-cutting cycle.
“Right now, to me, monetary policy is barely restrictive, if at all, and I think we need to make sure that we’re maintaining that somewhat restrictive stance to bring monetary to bring in place,” she told CNBC.

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack on Thursday gave indications that she thinks the central bank could be nearing the end of what could be a brief rate-cutting cycle.
The policymaker told CNBC that she thinks the current level of interest rates is “barely restrictive, if at all” when it comes to the economic impact.

Restrictiveness is a key metric for Fed officials, who are divided ideologically over whether labor market weakness or inflation is a bigger threat. Hammack has been more in the hawkish camp when it comes to inflation, preferring higher rates and more restrictive policy as a bulwark against another surge in prices.
“I think that we need to maintain a modestly, somewhat restrictive stance of policy to make sure that we are continuing to bring inflation back down to our 2% objective,” she told CNBC’s Steve Liesman on “Squawk on the Street.” “Right now, to me, monetary policy is barely restrictive, if at all, and I think we need to make sure that we’re maintaining that somewhat restrictive stance to bring monetary to bring in place.”
Hammack added that she thinks the current federal funds rate, targeted in a range between 3.75%-4%, is “right around a neutral rate,” indicating it does not need to come down much further.
Hammack will be a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee next year.
The Fed next meets Dec. 9-10, and market expectations have swung from a near-certainty that the committee would approve a third consecutive quarter percentage point reduction to now pricing in about a 60% probability that the committee will stand pat, per the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker of futures prices. Minutes from the October meeting, released Wednesday, detailed the sharp divide among committee members.

While focused on inflation, Hammack expressed concern over current price levels, noting that interviews she and her staff have conducted around the Cleveland area indicate labor market pressures as well as inflation concerns that are causing difficulty for households to make ends meet.
“What we hear from the workers is that they’re holding on to their jobs for dear life, if they have them,” she said. “We are in this slow, this low-hiring, low-firing environment. But what I also heard … was that the money that they have coming in is just not stretching as far as it used to. What used to cost $30 now costs $50, and so … that inflationary pressure is still very salient for them.”
Addressing the September nonfarm payrolls report released Thursday, Hammack called the picture “mixed” as it showed both higher-than-expected payrolls growth and a tick up in the unemployment rate.
Correction: Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack will be a member of the FOMC next year. An earlier version of this story misstated when she would serve on the rate-setting committee. The story also misstated a number. Hammack had said, “What used to cost $30 now costs $50…” More

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, up from the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a downward revision, according to a long-delayed report Thursday from the BLS.
The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, the highest it’s been since October 2021. A broader measure edged lower to 8%.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.
The report ends a data drought on the labor market that began in early September and continued through the record 44-day government shutdown.

The U.S. economy added substantially more jobs than expected in September, according to a long-awaited report Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in the month, up from the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a downward revision. The Dow Jones consensus estimate for September was 50,000. The July total also was revised down to 72,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the prior release.

In addition to the headline jobs number, the BLS said the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, the highest it’s been since October 2021. A broader measure that includes those not looking for jobs or working part-time for economic reasons edged lower to 8%.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.
The report ends a data drought on the labor market that began in early September and continued through the record 44-day government shutdown. Agencies including the BLS, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and others were prohibited from collecting or releasing data during the period.
This was the first BLS jobs report since the count for August that was released Sept. 5. It also was the second since Trump fired then-BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Aug. 1, following a July jobs report that contained massive revisions for prior months.
“September’s jobs report shows the labor market still had resilience before the shutdown, beating payroll expectations, but the picture remains muddy with August jobs revised to a job loss and the unemployment rate increasing,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor. “These numbers are a snapshot from two months ago and they don’t reflect where we stand now in November.”

A ‘Now Hiring’ sign sits outside the entrance to a Burlington department store on Nov. 19, 2025 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Stock market futures nevertheless added to gains following the report while Treasury yields were mostly lower.
Traders also continued to bet that the Federal Reserve will not lower rates further at its Dec. 9-10 meeting. This is the last jobs report Fed policymakers will get before then. Hawkish talk out of the October Fed meeting, as reflected in minutes released Wednesday, contributed to a general feeling that the central bank will be on hold into the end of the year.
“Despite the fact that today’s jobs report is very backward looking, it’s making markets move,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “Equities like the fact that payrolls were stronger than expected, suggesting the economy is still on a firm footing, while the bond market likes the rise in unemployment and slowdown in wage growth which may keep the case for a December Fed cut just about alive.”
Overall, the report shows the labor market entered the autumn months on much the same footing it has been all year – a slow but steady pace, with firms reluctant both to hire many new workers or lay off existing workforce during a time of unusual economic volatility spurred by aggressive policy actions in President Donald Trump’s White House.
A separate Labor Department release Thursday showed that initial jobless claims totaled 220,000 for the week ending Nov. 15, down 8,000 from the prior period and lower than the consensus forecast for 227,000.
Job gains in September came from familiar sources, with health care leading at 43,000, about right on target with its pace over the past year. Bars and restaurants contributed 37,000 while social assistance added 14,000.
On the downside, transportation and warehousing lost 25,000 and federal government, which had been a large contributor to employment growth, was off 3,000, part of a loss of 97,000 on the calendar year. Professional and business services also reported a decline of 20,000, fueled by a drop of 16,000 in temporary help.
The household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, painted an even brighter picture of the labor market.
The total level of those employed rose by 251,000 while the labor force increased by 470,000 to a fresh record of 171.2 million. The participation rate, which measures the share of the working-age population either working or seeking employment, edged higher to 62.4, the highest since May.
The rolls of full-time employment swelled by 673,000 while part-times fell by 573,000.

The lack of comprehensive indicators has presented a challenge for Fed officials, who cut their benchmark interest rate in both September and October but face a tougher decision in December. Officials at the October meeting noted the difficulty in navigating policy without the usual array of economic metrics to rely on, and there was a significant inclination to forgo a December cut, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.
With September’s payrolls count released, the BLS is preparing the first influx of other data in coming months. The bureau on Wednesday announced it will release jobs data for October and November simultaneously on Dec. 16. October’s numbers will not include the customary unemployment rate calculation as that comes from a survey of households that will not be able to be completed because of the shutdown. More

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. will release the September nonfarm payrolls number, ending a shutdown-induced blackout on official jobs numbers.
The report is forecast to show a gain of 50,000 jobs in the public and private sectors, up from the initially reported 22,000 in August but still indicative of a soft labor market.
Because the numbers are from September, they will provide little help for policymakers trying to navigate a difficult landscape.

Job seekers speak with recruiters during the SacJobs Career job fair in Sacramento, California, US, on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday will release the September nonfarm payrolls number, ending a shutdown-induced blackout on official jobs data, albeit with a decidedly rear-window view.
Due at 8:30 a.m. ET, the release is forecast to show a gain of 50,000 jobs in the public and private sectors, up from the initially reported 22,000 in August but still indicative of a soft labor market.

Though the report will be backward-looking, it at least will provide some fodder for investors, economists and Federal Reserve officials who have had to rely on a host of private alternative data during the record-long shutdown in Washington, D.C. It will be the first BLS jobs report since the August release on Sept. 5.
“My sense is that the both the September report and the revisions for July and August will suggest a little bit brighter outlook than is commonly assumed, but not much to brag about,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “The labor market is holding in there, just like the economy.”
Coming a week after the government impasse ended, the data also is expected to show the unemployment rate at 4.3% while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.7% from a year ago, all numbers unchanged from August, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates.

Because the numbers are from September, they will provide only a little help for policymakers trying to navigate a difficult landscape and could be disregarded by markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently referred to the situation as “driving in the fog” and cautioned against looking at further interest rate cuts as guaranteed while officials look for direction.
While one month’s jobs report will help clear up some of the way, visibility will remain limited.

‘Pervasive uncertainty’
The BLS on Wednesday updated its release dates for the data points it produces.
The bureau will not release October’s jobs report separately, instead including it with the November report, which has been pushed to Dec. 16 from its original release date of Dec. 5. There will be no unemployment rate released for October due to household data that the BLS will not be able to collect. Similarly, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will see a combined September and October release on Dec. 9.
The BLS on Oct. 24 released September’s consumer price index report only because it is used as a benchmark for Social Security cost of living adjustments.
“The economy is muddling through a period of pervasive uncertainty,” Brusuelas said. “Because of the duration of the shutdown, I don’t think we’re going to get a clean reading until early February on where the labor market’s at.”
Nevertheless, other data, such as the private payrolls running tally from ADP along with layoff announcements from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas and a host of other indicators are providing some clues on where the labor market stands.
In fact, Fed Governor Christopher Waller in a speech Monday rejected the notion that the Fed doesn’t have enough data to make decisions.
“Policymakers and forecasters are not ‘flying blind’ or ‘in a fog,'” Waller said in a speech advocating a December rate cut. “While it is always nice to have more data, as economists, we are skilled at using whatever available data there is to formulate forecasts.”
Judging by data revealed so far, Goldman Sachs holds an above-consensus view of 80,000 jobs created in September but sees a decline of 50,000 in October, due largely to the expiration of the federal government’s deferred resignation program from cuts associated with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
“While we do not expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce an October unemployment rate, we estimate it likely would have increased, reflecting upward pressure from shutdown-related furloughs and increases in broader measures of labor market slack,” Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels said in a note.
In addition to the September headline number, Thursday’s report also will include revisions for July and August. Both Brusuelas and the Goldman economists said they expect those numbers to come in higher than the previous counts. More