Evelyn Reynolds

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    How Trump’s Plans for Mass Deportations, Tariffs and Fed Could Affect the Economy

    Predicting how White House policy is going to affect the American economy is always fraught with uncertainty. Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House has taken the doubt up a notch.Mr. Trump has proposed or hinted at a range of policies — including drastically higher tariffs, mass deportations, deregulation and a fraught relationship with the Federal Reserve as it sets interest rates — that could shape the economy in complex ways.“There are two multiplicative sources of uncertainty: One, of course, is what they’re going to do,” said Michael Feroli, the chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan. “The other is: Even if you know what they’re going to do, what is it going to mean for the economy?”What forecasters do know is that America’s economy is solid heading into 2025, with low unemployment, solid wage gains, gradually declining Federal Reserve interest rates, and inflation that has been slowly returning to a normal pace after years of rapid price increases. Factory construction took off under the Biden administration, and those facilities will be slowly opening their doors in the coming years.But what comes next for growth and for inflation is unclear — especially because when it comes to huge issues like whether or not to assert more control over the Federal Reserve, Mr. Trump is getting different advice from different people in his orbit. Here are some of the crucial wild cards.Tariffs: Likely Inflationary. How Much Is Unclear.If economists agree about one thing regarding Mr. Trump’s policies, it is that his tariff proposals could boost prices for consumers and lift inflation. But the range of estimates over how much is wide.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    After Flurry of Cabinet Picks, Trump Rethinks Candidates for Treasury Secretary

    President-elect Donald J. Trump is expected to invite the contenders for the role, including Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan, to Mar-a-Lago this week.President-elect Donald J. Trump is eyeing a new candidate for Treasury Secretary amid internal debate over who should have the role: the former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh.Mr. Trump is also considering the Wall Street billionaire Marc Rowan.Mr. Trump had been expected to pick either Howard Lutnick, the chief executive of the Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, or Scott Bessent, the founder of the investment firm Key Square Capital Management and a former money manager for George Soros. And he had been seen as likely to make the selection late last week.But he has been having second thoughts about the top two candidates, and has slowed down his selection process. He is expected to invite the contenders to interview with him this week at Mar-a-Lago.Mr. Lutnick, who has been running Mr. Trump’s transition operation, has gotten on Mr. Trump’s nerves lately. Mr. Trump has privately expressed frustration that Mr. Lutnick has been hanging around him too much and that he has been manipulating the transition process for his own ends. A person familiar with the process, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the battle between Mr. Lutnick and Mr. Bessent as a knife fight, with Mr. Lutnick as the primary aggressor.Mr. Bessent is said to still be under consideration, and has also been raised by people in Mr. Trump’s economic circles as a possible contender to lead the White House’s National Economic Council. Elon Musk, a close adviser to the president-elect, on Sunday called Mr. Bessent a “business-as-usual” choice for Treasury secretary in a post on his social media platform, X, while throwing his support behind Mr. Lutnick.Mr. Trump and Mr. Lutnick met on Sunday, and it wasn’t immediately clear what came of the discussion, according to two people briefed on the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss personnel matters. Mr. Bessent has also met with Mr. Trump. The other two — as well as any other new names that emerge — are likely to be asked to meet with Mr. Trump this week, according to one of the people briefed on the matter.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Biden Cements TSMC Grant Before Trump Takes Over

    The White House is racing to finish grant agreements for chip manufacturers, but some of its biggest successes might be credited to the Trump administration.The Biden administration said on Friday that it had completed an agreement to award Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company up to $6.6 billion in grants, as federal officials race to put in place their plans to boost U.S. chip manufacturing before the end of President Biden’s term.The administration struck a preliminary agreement in the spring to provide TSMC with the funding, which will support three new factories in Phoenix. The government will give TSMC the money in tranches as the company meets milestones.In a statement, Mr. Biden said that the foreign direct investment in the facilities was the largest for a new factory project in U.S. history, and that the announcement on Friday was “among the most critical milestones yet” in the rollout of his chips program.The agreement “demonstrates how we are ensuring that the progress made to date will continue to unfold in the coming years, benefiting communities all across the country,” Mr. Biden said.The administration is expected to finish more grant awards in the coming weeks. But the projects might come too late for Mr. Biden to receive much credit. Chip factories take years to build, and many of these projects will not break ground — or produce chips — until well into President-elect Donald J. Trump’s term.Mr. Biden’s administration is working to cement its legacy with the grants as part of a $39 billion program to revitalize U.S. technology manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign nations for critical semiconductors. The program is a pillar of the president’s economic policy, which has largely focused on bolstering American manufacturing.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    UK economy surprises with September contraction, grows just 0.1% in the third quarter

    Gross domestic product fell by 0.1% in September, following growth of just 0.2% the previous month. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 0.2% for September.
    For the third quarter as a whole, the British economy grew just 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, below the 0.2% growth expected by economists.
    U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Friday she was “not satisfied” with the numbers.

    Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)
    Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

    The U.K. economy showed a surprise contraction in September and only marginal growth in the third quarter following a strong rebound at the start of the year, initial figures showed Friday.
    Gross domestic product fell by 0.1% in September, following growth of just 0.2% the previous month, according to the Office for National Statistics. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 0.2% for September.

    For the third quarter as a whole, the British economy grew just 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. That’s below the 0.2% growth expected by economists and follows an expansion of 0.5% in the second quarter of the year.
    U.K.’s dominant services sector also grew just 0.1% on the quarter, the Office for National Statistics said. Construction rose by 0.8%, while production slipped 0.2% in the month.
    It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.
    The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.
    U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Friday she was “not satisfied” with the numbers.

    “At my Budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances. Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” she said in a release.
    Analysts flagged underlying weakness in the economy and growing risks from geopolitical tensions as potential barriers to further growth.
    “It’s clear that the economy has a bit less momentum than we previously thought. And it’s striking that the economy has only grown in two of the past six months,” said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics.
    “Overall, despite the contraction in September, we still expect GDP growth to pick up in the coming quarters as the government’s debt-financed spending boosts activity and as the drags from higher inflation and higher interest rates continue to fade,” Gregory added.
    A rate cut at the BOE’s next meeting in December now looks “improbable,” according to Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. He said inflation risks and growing global headwinds will likely prevent policymakers from pursuing back-to-back rate cuts.
    “These figures suggest that the economy went off the boil even before the budget, as weaker business and consumer confidence helped weaken output across the third quarter, particularly in September,” Thiru said in emailed comments.
    The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.
    Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.
    “Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.
    The British pound was broadly flat against the U.S. dollar by mid-morning in London. The euro strengthened 0.4% against the pound following Friday’s GDP release.  More

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    Fed Chair Jerome Powell Says No Need to ‘Hurry’ to Cut Rates

    A strong economy is giving Federal Reserve officials room to move “carefully” as they lower interest rates, the central bank chair said.Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said that a solid economy with low unemployment, robust consumer spending and strengthening business investment gave the central bank room to take its time in cutting interest rates.“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Mr. Powell said during a speech in Dallas on Thursday. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”The Fed is trying to navigate a complicated moment. The economy remains healthy overall, but the job market has slowed over the past year. Inflation has also been cooling steadily. Between the two developments, central bankers have decided that they no longer need to tap the brakes on the economy quite so hard.After lifting interest rates sharply in 2022 and 2023 in a bid to cool the economy and wrestle rapid inflation back under control, they have begun to lower borrowing costs in recent months.But officials still want to make sure that they fully stamp out rapid inflation. Price increases have cooled substantially from their 2022 peak, but they have not completely returned to the central bank’s 2 percent goal. Prices climbed 2.1 percent in the year through September, and are on track to come in a bit above that in October, based on other recent data reports.Mr. Powell made it clear that Fed officials expected to see limited progress on inflation in the next few months.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Ford Fined by Safety Agency Over Defective Rearview Camera Recalls

    The regulator faulted the automaker for not recalling cars with defective rearview cameras quickly enough and for providing incomplete and inaccurate information.Ford Motor will pay a fine of up to $165 million for not recalling cars with defective rearview cameras in a timely manner, the federal government’s main auto safety agency said on Thursday.The agency, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, said Ford also had failed to provide accurate and complete information about the defect and recall. If Ford is required to pay the full sum, it will be the second-largest fine ever issued by the regulator. The largest fine, a $200 million penalty in 2015, was levied against Takata, a Japanese company that made defective airbag inflaters that resulted in a huge, global recall.The safety agency said a defective rearview camera could increase the risk of a crash.“Timely and accurate recalls are critical to keeping everyone safe on our roads,” the agency’s deputy administrator, Sophie Shulman, said in a statement. “When manufacturers fail to prioritize the safety of the American public and meet their obligations under federal law, NHTSA will hold them accountable.”Under a consent decree between the agency and Ford, the automaker is required to pay $65 million. A second sum of $55 million will be deferred and can be partly or completely reversed if Ford makes changes to improve its ability to identify defects and alert the safety agency quickly.Ford also agreed to spend $45 million to improve its ability to analyze data, create a new means of sharing information and documents with the safety agency, and set up a base to test rearview camera components.“We appreciate the opportunity to resolve this matter with NHTSA and remain committed to continuously improving safety and compliance at Ford,” the automaker said in a statement. “Wide-ranging enhancements are already underway with more to come, including advanced data analytics, a new in-house testing facility, among other capabilities.”According to a summary of the safety agency’s investigation, the defect was related to a faulty circuit board that caused rearview cameras in certain models to stop working. The agency received 15 complaints about the defect but did not identify any injuries or fatalities caused by it.Ford first identified the defect in 2020 and issued a recall for more than 620,000 vehicles, largely from the 2020 model year, including F-Series pickups, Mustangs and several sport utility vehicles. A year later, the safety agency opened an investigation to determine if Ford had accurately identified and reported all of the vehicles that could have been affected by the camera defect.Ford expanded the recall in 2023 and again this year. Separately, Ford recalled a different set of rearview cameras in 2023 at a cost of $270 million. More

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    Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations

    Wholesale prices nudged higher in October, though largely in line with expectations and mostly consistent with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
    The producer price index, which measures what producers get for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, up one-tenth of a percentage point from September though matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast. On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%.

    Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and also matching expectations. The 12-month rate was at 3.1%.
    Though the readings are above the Fed’s 2% inflation goal, the trend is showing that price increases are generally moderating and inflation is being pushed by isolated factors.
    Services rose 0.3% on the month, accounting for most of the PPI increase, and was driven largely by a 3.6% surge in portfolio management prices. Food prices fell 0.2% on the month while energy was off by 0.3%. Goods prices nudged higher by 0.1% after falling the previous two months.
    Markets reacted little to the news, with stock futures pointing to a mixed open while Treasury yields held higher.
    Traders expect the Fed to follow up rate cuts in September and November with another quarter percentage point reduction at the Dec. 17-18 meeting. After that, market pricing points to the Fed skipping January and moving at a slower easing pace through 2025.

    The market-implied probability for a December rate cut nudged down to 76.1% following the release, an area that still indicates a strong likelihood, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge of futures prices.
    In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that the pace of layoffs continued to moderate after a brief spike.
    Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 217,000 for the week ended Nov. 9, down 4,000 from the previous period and slightly lower than the 220,000 estimate.
    Continuing claims, which run a week behind, totaled 1.873 million, down 11,000 from the prior week.

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    NLRB Bars Mandatory Anti-Union Meetings After Amazon Draws Complaint

    The ruling, stemming from a complaint against Amazon, bars companies from compelling workers to attend meetings on unionization’s downsides.The National Labor Relations Board ruled on Wednesday that companies may not compel workers to attend meetings on the downsides of unionization, a tactic that unions say stifles worker organizing.The decision, the latest in a slew of labor board rulings under the Biden administration aimed at supporting workers’ right to unionize, stems from a complaint over Amazon’s conduct before a successful union election in 2022 at a Staten Island warehouse, the first Amazon warehouse in the nation to unionize. The company held hundreds of meetings there and at another location to discourage workers from supporting a union.The N.L.R.B.’s ban on so-called captive audience meetings is a precedent with potential impact beyond Amazon, though it could be reversed after President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office. Facing a wave of union campaigns since the onset of the pandemic, large employers including Starbucks, Trader Joe’s and REI have held such meetings in what labor regulators and unions have described as an effort to clamp down on organizing. The companies have denied accusations of anti-union campaigns.These meetings, which employees are often required to attend, give employers “near-unfettered freedom to force their message about unionization on workers,” Lauren McFerran, the Democratic chairman of the labor board, said in a statement. She added that they undermine employees’ ability to choose whether they want union representation, a right guaranteed under federal law.“Today’s decision better protects workers’ freedom to make their own choices in exercising their rights,” Ms. McFerran said, “while ensuring that employers can convey their views about unionization in a noncoercive manner.”Amazon intends to appeal the decision, said Mary Kate Paradis, a company spokeswoman, calling the ruling a violation of the First Amendment and adding that it “contradicts the express language” of the National Labor Relations Act. Meetings are often held “because the decision about whether or not to join a union is an important one, and employees deserve to understand the facts so they can make an informed choice,” she said in a statement.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More