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    Zepbound copycats remain online despite FDA ban

    Compounding pharmacies were largely supposed to stop making versions of tirzepatide this week, but it’s still available on some popular websites like Amble, EllieMD, Willow and Mochi Health.
    Pharmacies were able to make copycat versions of Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Mounjaro while the drugs were in shortage. But the FDA declared the shortage over late last year.
    Mass compounding of Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide — the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic — is supposed to stop by the end of May.

    This week was supposed to mark the end of compounding pharmacies making copycat versions of Eli Lilly’s weight-loss drug Zepbound and its diabetes drug Mounjaro. Online, it doesn’t look like much has changed. 
    Popular websites like Amble, EllieMD, Willow and Mochi Health are all still advertising versions of tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound. Some, like Ivim, have stopped taking new patients.

    Mochi Health has no plans to stop, and neither do the four pharmacies it uses to supply patients with the medications, said Mochi CEO Myra Ahmad. The company uses a network of about 500 providers to write prescriptions for weight-loss drugs, including compounded versions. It’s betting that offering personalized versions of the drugs will keep the company out of the crosshairs. 
    “It can be different dosing schedules … some patients prefer to go up in dosage much more slowly,” Ahmad said. “Some patients like to mix a number of other medications into their compounded formulations, depending on the side effects that they’re having. Some patients have side effects with any additives and brand name formulations. Compounding really opens up the door for so much personalization.” 
    Amble, EllieMD and Willow didn’t respond to CNBC’s request for comment. 
    Compounding is where pharmacies mix ingredients of a drug to create a specialized version for specific patients. Say someone is allergic to a dye in a branded medication or needs a liquid form and the main manufacturer only sells capsules. In that case, the patient can turn to a compounded version.
    When drugs are in shortage, they can be compounded in larger quantities to help fill the gap. 

    Copycat versions of Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic have been widely available in recent years because the U.S. Food and Drug Administration listed the brand versions as being in short supply. 
    That created a booming business for pharmacies compounding the highly popular class of weight loss and diabetes medications called GLP-1s.
    But late last year, the FDA said all doses of Mounjaro and Zepbound were readily available and took the drug off its shortage list, spelling the end for mass compounding of the drug. After months of legal challenges, the FDA gave smaller pharmacies until early March to stop and larger pharmacies until this week before it started enforcing its rules.
    The larger facilities aren’t allowed to compound tirzepatide at all anymore. Smaller ones aren’t supposed to make products that are essentially copies of a commercially available drug, a moniker with some wiggle room. The FDA sees essential copies as those that have a dosage within 10% of the commercially available drug or combine two or more commercially available drugs.
    Mochi insists all of its prescriptions are personalized, including doses that differ from the standard Zepbound strengths. Other websites like EllieMD are advertising tirzepatide mixed with vitamin B12. 
    Scott Brunner, CEO of the Alliance for Pharmacy Compounding, said formulations or dosage strengths that aren’t commercially available aren’t considered a copy. However, combining two drugs into one — like adding vitamin B6 or B12 — would be considered a copy under a strict reading of FDA guidance. 
    “FDA guidance are pretty clear about what is and is not a copy,” Brunner said. “And I would say any compounding pharmacy or outsourcing facility that continues to prepare copies of tirzepatide injection after today are putting themselves in a certain amount of legal risks.” 
    John Herr, pharmacist and owner of Town & Country Compounding Pharmacy, stopped compounding tirzepatide earlier this month. He didn’t want to take the risk even though his 300 to 400 patients on it have been calling nonstop to complain about losing access.
    Town & Country, based in Ramsey, New Jersey, was charging patients about $200 a month — about one-fifth the list price for Zepbound and less than half the price Lilly charges self-paying patients. 
    What happens next is an open question. Enforcing the ban on mass compounding of tirzepatide mostly falls to the FDA. The agency didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
    Lilly can try to sue companies that continue, but it hasn’t had much luck in the past. A Florida judge last year dismissed one of Lilly’s cases, saying the company was trying to enforce a law that only the FDA can. 
    Ahmad, the CEO of Mochi, said she isn’t worried about Lilly taking legal action against her providers. The way she sees it, they have established patient-physician relationships with the autonomy to decide how best to manage their patients.
    The next two months will be informative. Mass compounding of semaglutide — the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy — needs to stop by the end of May, according to the FDA.
    Hims & Hers Health has already said it will stop selling commercially available doses of semaglutide when the time comes. Customers who have a personalized dosing regimen will be able to continue without any change, the company added. 
    -CNBC’s Leanne Miller contributed to this report More

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    Tariff fears are raising construction costs by up to 20%, says Related Group CEO

    President Donald Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on certain goods from Canada and Mexico and is expected to follow through on broader tariffs starting on April 2.
    Related Group CEO Jon Paul Pérez said contractors are raising prices in anticipation.
    For now, Related said the high end of the real estate market remains strong, especially in Florida.

    Related Group CEO Jon Paul Pérez.
    Courtesy of Future Proof and Triangle BLVD

    Building contractors are already hiking prices as much as 20% to offset potential tariffs, a move that could also raise prices of new condos and homes, according to the CEO of developer Related Group.
    President Donald Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on certain goods from Canada and Mexico, including steel and aluminum, and is expected to follow through on broader tariffs starting on April 2. Even before those wider levies take effect, uncertainty over tariffs and inflation is causing many contractors to hike real estate project costs.

    Related Group CEO Jon Paul Pérez said contractors bidding on seven projects that Related has in the works are raising prices.
    “We’re seeing [subcontractors] throw an additional cushion into their numbers anticipating tariffs,” Pérez told CNBC during a live Inside Wealth conversation. “It could be as much as 20%, depending on what material they’re getting from another country.”

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    Pérez said the price hikes are driven by the anticipation of higher costs, rather than current levels, and noted it’s unclear how the higher costs will be divided between contractor and developer.
    “When you go through their numbers in detail and you start negotiating, you quickly find out they’re just sort of padding to protect themselves,” he said.
    As a result, tariff fears could add further upward pricing pressure on a housing market that’s already crippled by high prices and elevated mortgage rates. According to a survey from the National Association of Home Builders, rising prices for construction materials could add $9,200 to the cost of a typical home.

    Related Group is one of the largest and most prominent developers in the U.S., spanning affordable housing to luxury condo buildings, mainly in South Florida. The company currently has more than 90 projects in some stage of development, including rentals, affordable housing units, mixed-use developments and luxury condos.
    Related’s founder and chairman, Jorge Pérez, said that in addition to tariff concerns, the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration could also drive up prices for developments, since the construction industry relies heavily on workers from overseas.
    “There will absolutely be a cost effect in our industry, in particular the construction industry,” he said. “Losing these people will have an inflationary effect.”
    For now, Related said the high end of the real estate market remains strong, especially in Florida. The company sold two condo penthouses at its exclusive new development on Fisher Island near South Beach, Miami, for a total of $150 million.
    Related is also building a luxury oceanfront condo tower in Bal Harbour, Miami, called Rivage Residences Bal Harbour, that is offering a mega-mansion in the sky — combining two penthouses that could total more than 20,000 square feet and fetch over $150 million.
    “The high-end buyer is a very particular buyer,” said Jorge Pérez. “Those people are buying over $10 million condominiums and typically they’re very, very wealthy. So they’re less affected, we’re not seeing a decline in that market.”
    Chairman Pérez said the “middle market,” or those buying condos in the $1 million to $3 million range, are taking more of a wait-and-see approach given the uncertainties around tariffs and immigration. Many condo buyers in Miami and South Florida are from Canada and Latin America, and are therefore more sensitive to potential changes in immigration policy.
    “South Americans are coming and saying, ‘What’s going to happen with immigration policies?’ or, ‘Am I going to lose my visa?'” he said. “We had a project where we just lost seven or eight Canadian and Mexican buyers that were ready to sign contracts, but when all these things came from tariffs, they didn’t want to buy. But I think that will calm down.” More

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    China’s property market edges toward an inflection point

    UBS analysts on Wednesday became the latest to raise expectations that China’s struggling real estate market is close to stabilizing.
    Existing home sales in five major Chinese cities have climbed by more than 30% from a year ago on a weekly basis as of Wednesday, according to a CNBC analysis of data accessed via Wind Information.

    Urban buildings in Huai’an city, Jiangsu province, China, on March 18, 2025.
    Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

    BEIJING — UBS analysts on Wednesday became the latest to raise expectations that China’s struggling real estate market is close to stabilizing.
    “After four or five years of a downward cycle, we have begun to see some relatively positive signals,” John Lam, head of Asia-Pacific property and Greater China property research at UBS Investment Bank, told reporters Wednesday. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.

    “Of course these signals aren’t nationwide, and may be local,” Lam said. “But compared to the past, it should be more positive.”
    One indicator is improving sales in China’s largest cities.
    Existing home sales in five major Chinese cities have climbed by more than 30% from a year ago on a weekly basis as of Wednesday, according to CNBC analysis of data accessed via Wind Information. The category is typically called “secondary home sales” in China, in contrast to the primary market, which has typically consisted of newly built apartment homes.
    UBS now predicts China’s home prices can stabilize in early 2026, earlier than the mid-2026 timeframe previously forecast. They expect secondary transactions could reach half of the total by 2026.

    UBS looked at four factors — low inventory, a rising premium on land prices, rising secondary sales and increasing rental prices — that had indicated a property market inflection point between 2014 and 2015. As of February 2025, only rental prices had yet to see an improvement, the firm said.

    Chinese policymakers in September called for a “halt” in the decline of the property sector, which accounts for the majority of household wealth and just a few years earlier contributed to more than a quarter of the economy. Major developers such as Evergrande have defaulted on their debt, while property sales have nearly halved since 2021 to around 9.7 trillion yuan ($1.34 trillion) last year, according to S&P Global Ratings.
    China’s property market began its recent decline in late 2020 after Beijing started cracking down on developers’ high reliance on debt for growth. Despite a flurry of central and local government measures in the last year and a half, the real estate slump has persisted.
    But after more forceful stimulus was announced late last year, analysts started to predict a bottom could come as soon as later this year.
    Back in January, S&P Global Ratings reiterated its view that China’s real estate market would stabilize toward the second half of 2025. The analysts expected “surging secondary sales” were a leading indicator on primary sales.
    Then, in late February, Macquarie’s Chief China Economist Larry Hu pointed to three “positive” signals that could support a bottom in home prices this year. He noted that in addition to the policy push, unsold housing inventory levels have fallen to the lowest since 2011 and a narrowing gap between mortgage rates and rental yields could encourage homebuyers to buy rather than rent.
    But he said in an email this week that what China’s housing market still needs is financial support channeled through the central bank.
    HSBC’s Head of Asia Real Estate Michelle Kwok in February said there are “10 signs” the Chinese real estate market has bottomed. The list included recovery in new home sales, home prices and foreign investment participation.
    In addition to state-owned enterprises, “foreign capital has started to invest in the property market,” the report said, noting “two Singaporean developers/investment funds acquired land sites in Shanghai on 20 February.”
    Foreign investors are also looking for alternative ways to enter China’s property market after Beijing announced a push for affordable rental housing.
    Invesco in late February announced its real estate investment arm formed a joint venture with Ziroom, a Chinese company known locally for its standardized, modern-style apartment rentals.
    The joint venture, called Izara Holdings, plans to initially invest 1.2 billion yuan (about $160 million) in a 1,500-room rental housing development near one of the sites for Beijing’s Winter Olympics, with a targeted opening of 2027.
    The units will likely be available for rent around 5,000 yuan a month, Calvin Chou, head of Asia-Pacific, Invesco Real Estate, said in an interview. He said developers’ financial difficulties have created a market gap, and he expects the joint venture to invest in at least one or two more projects in China this year.
    Ziroom’s database allows the company to quickly assess regional factors for choosing new developments, Ziroom Asset Management CEO Meng Yue said in a statement, adding the venture plans to eventually expand overseas.

    Not out of the woods

    However, data still reflects a struggling property market. Real estate investment still fell by nearly 10% in the first two months of the year, according to a raft of official economic figures released Monday.
    “The property sector is especially concerning as key data are in the negative territory across the board, with new home starts growth worsening to -29.6% in January-February from -25.5% in Q4 2024,” Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday.
    “It’s long been our view that without a real stabilization of the property sector there will be no real recovery of the Chinese economy,” he said.
    Improved secondary sales also don’t directly benefit developers, whose revenue previously came from primary sales. S&P Global Ratings this month put Vanke on credit watch, and downgraded its rating on Longfor. Both developers were among the largest in the market.
    “Generally China’s [recent] policy efforts have been quite extensive,” Sky Kwah, head of investment advisory at Raffles Family Office, said in an interview earlier this month.
    “The key at this point in time is execution. The sector recovery relies on consumer confidence,” he said, adding that “you do not reverse confidence overnight. Confidence has to be earned.” More

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    Nike expects sales will plunge in current quarter as it faces tariffs, sliding consumer confidence

    Nike expects its sales decline in the fiscal fourth quarter, which is set to end in May, to be at the “low end” of the “mid-teens range,” far worse than analysts expected.
    The company said its guidance is based on its ongoing restructuring efforts, plus tariffs and sliding consumer confidence.
    During the sneaker giant’s key holiday quarter, sales declined 9%, driven by weakness in China.

    Pedestrians walk past a Nike store featuring a modern design and mannequins displaying winter apparel on December 5, 2024, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. 
    Cheng Xin | Getty Images

    Nike on Thursday warned that sales will drop by a double digit percentage in its current quarter as the sneaker giant contends with new tariffs, sliding consumer confidence and a slower than expected turnaround.
    In a conference call with analysts, finance chief Matt Friend said Nike expects its sales decline in the fiscal fourth quarter, which is set to end in May, to be at the “low end” of the “mid-teens range.” It also anticipates its gross margin will fall between 4 and 5 percentage points as it ramps up efforts to liquidate excess inventory and stale styles that are no longer resonating with consumers — a process it expects to continue into fiscal 2026.

    “We believe that the fourth quarter will reflect the largest impact from our … actions, and that the headwinds to revenue and gross margin will begin to moderate from there,” said Friend. “We are also navigating through several external factors that create uncertainty in the current operating environment, including geopolitical dynamics, new tariffs, volatile foreign exchange rates and tax regulations, as well as the impact of this uncertainty and other macro factors on consumer confidence.”
    The guidance is far worse than analysts had expected. Consensus estimates from LSEG show Wall Street had expected sales to be down 11.4% in the current quarter.
    Shares fell more than 4% in extended trading and are down more than 5% year to date, as of Thursday’s close.
    Beyond guidance, Nike beat Wall Street’s expectations in its fiscal third quarter.
    Here’s how the company performed during the quarter, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

    Earnings per share: 54 cents vs. 29 cents estimated
    Revenue: $11.27 billion vs. $11.01 billion estimated

    The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 28 was $794 million, or 54 cents per share, compared with $1.17 billion, or 77 cents per share, a year earlier.
    Sales dropped to $11.27 billion, down about 9% from $12.4 billion a year earlier. Like other retailers, Nike saw strong demand in December followed by “double digit” declines in January and February. 
    While Nike delivered a strong earnings beat, expectations were low headed into the release and profits fell 32% from the year-ago period.
    During the quarter, Nike’s gross margin fell by 3.3 percentage points to 41.5%, lower than expectations of 41.8%, according to StreetAccount. That’s largely because of the costs associated with Nike’s efforts to clear out old inventory in favor of new, innovative styles. In a press release, the company attributed its drop in gross margin to “higher discounts, higher inventory obsolescence reserves, higher product costs and changes in channel mix.”
    Meanwhile, sales were down 9%, driven by weakness in China. During the quarter, sales fell 17% in the key region to $1.73 billion, falling short of expectations of $1.84 billion, according to StreetAccount. 
    “I spent some time over there in December. I hadn’t been over there in a while. The competition is a bit more aggressive than what I remembered,” CEO Elliott Hill, who left Nike in 2020 and returned last year, told analysts. “So we’ve just got to accelerate our pace.”
    Thursday’s release comes about five months into Hill’s tenure as CEO and his efforts to turn around the business and get it back to growth. He has focused on winning back wholesale partners, reigniting innovation and wooing back athletes that have fled to new competitors, but the work has not yet yielded results.
    “I’ll start by saying I’m proud of the progress we made against the key actions we committed to 90 days ago. While we met the expectations we set, we’re not satisfied with our overall results,” Hill told analysts. “We can and will be better.”
    During the quarter, sales on Nike’s direct channels dropped 12% to $4.7 billion. Wholesale revenue fell 7% to $6.2 billion.
    Plus, since Hill took over, the company is now contending with a new set of dynamics that could make its comeback even harder to execute.
    In the three months since Nike last reported earnings, President Donald Trump has put a new 20% tariff on goods imported from China, consumer sentiment has fallen, and retail sales in both January and February were weaker than expected.
    Out of the hundreds of suppliers and manufacturers that Nike works with, about 24% of them are located in China, according to a manufacturing disclosure published in January. If the retailer doesn’t raise prices to offset tariffs and can’t push the cost entirely on to suppliers, Nike’s margins are expected to take a hit from the new duties. On Thursday’s call, Nike didn’t say whether it would raise prices or how exactly the new duties would affect margins.
    Further, when consumers aren’t feeling confident and cutting back on spending, discretionary products like new clothes and shoes are one of the first things they cut out in favor of necessities. Over the last few years, the overall sneaker and apparel markets have been slow because consumers have cut back on clothes and shoes. But up until recently, strong companies were still performing well and taking market share from weaker competitors.
    However, that trend began to shift over the last few weeks when even the strongest of companies started to sound the alarm about soft consumer spending when they reported first-quarter earnings, raising questions about the health of the economy.
    During the quarter, sales in North America — Nike’s largest market — fell 4% to $4.86 billion. Still, revenue in the region came in better than the $4.53 billion analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount.
    Nike is widely expected to reclaim the market share it lost and reset its business, and some insiders say the company’s problems have been overblown. Even so, the tariffs and economic fears could mean that the retailer’s turnaround could take longer, and be more difficult, than expected.
    What’s key to Nike’s turnaround plan is its ability to reignite innovation and create the type of industry-leading shoes and apparel that have long made it the market leader. During a call with analysts, Hill said early releases for the company’s new Pegasus Premium “nearly sold out” across North America and will scale through fall 2025. Its Romero 18, created for the everyday runner, has seen “outstanding” results, and Nike plans to double distribution by mid-April.
    “It will take time to reach the volume to replace the handful of classic franchises we over-indexed on, but our approach is simple,” said Hill. “Help consumers fall in love with something new from Nike, and that something is not replacing one icon for another.”
    Nike has already made strides in its efforts to grow its female consumer base, another key component to boosting revenue and apparel sales. Last month, it announced it was teaming up with Kim Kardashian’s intimates brand Skims to create a new product line dubbed NikeSKIMS that will include apparel, footwear and accessories. The buzzy partnership is expected to give Nike improved inroads with women and allow it to better compete with Lululemon, Alo Yoga and Vuori, which cater more to women than Nike currently does.
    Further, Nike debuted a new ad campaign geared toward female athletes during the Super Bowl, its first big game advertisement in decades. The campaign showed that reaching female athletes and capturing the buzz around women’s sports will be a center point of Hill’s strategy.
    If Nike can continue to show positive signs from new product launches and partnerships, the rest of its headwinds might just be drowned out as noise. More

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    DoubleLine’s Gundlach sees more risk coming along with greater chance of recession

    Jeffrey Gundlach speaking at the 2019 SOHN Conference in New York on May 5, 2019.
    Adam Jeffery | CNBC

    DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday there could be another painful period of volatility on the horizon as the fixed income guru sees heighted risk of a recession.
    “I believe that investors should have already upgraded their portfolios … I think that we’re going to have another bout of risk,” Gundlach said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.”

    Gundlach, whose firm managed about $95 billion at the end of 2024, said DoubleLine has lowered the amount of borrowed funds to amplify positions in its leveraged funds to the lowest point in the company’s 16-year history.
    Volatility recently spiked after President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs on leading trading partners triggered fears of an economic slowdown, spurring a monthlong pullback in the S&P 500 that tipped the benchmark into a 10% correction last week. The index is now about 8% below its all-time high reached in February.
    The widely followed investor now sees a 50% to 60% chance of a recession in coming quarters.
    “I do think the chance of recession is higher than most people believe. I actually think it’s higher than 50% coming in the next few quarters,” Gundlach said.
    His comments came after the Federal Reserve downgraded its outlook for economic growth and hiked its inflation outlook Wednesday, raising fears of stagflation. The Fed still expects to make two rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, even though it said the inflation outlook has worsened.

    Gundlach is recommending U.S. investors move away from American securities and find opportunities in Europe and emerging markets.
    “It’s probably time to pull the trigger for real on dollar-based investors diversifying away from simply United States investing. And I think that’s going to be a long-term trend,” he said. More

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    Darden Restaurants sales disappoint, but Olive Garden parent sees consumers continuing to spend

    Darden Restaurants beat Wall Street’s expectations for quarterly earnings, but its revenue fell short of estimates.
    Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse reported weaker-than-expected same-store sales growth.

    The Olive Garden logo is displayed on the front of an Olive Garden Italian restaurant in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, on February 15, 2025. 
    Artur Widak | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Darden Restaurants on Thursday reported weaker-than-expected sales as Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse underperformed analysts’ projections.
    The restaurant company blamed weather for the sales slowdown and maintained its full-year forecast, lifting investors’ confidence that the rough quarter was a blip.

    Darden shares rose 5% Thursday.
    Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

    Earnings per share: $2.80 adjusted vs. $2.79 expected
    Revenue: $3.16 billion vs. $3.21 billion expected

    Darden reported fiscal third-quarter net income of $323.4 million, or $2.74 per share, up from $312.9 million, or $2.60 per share, a year earlier.
    Excluding costs related to its acquisition of Chuy’s, Darden earned $2.80 per share.
    Net sales rose 6.2% to $3.16 billion, fueled largely by the addition of Chuy’s restaurants to its portfolio.

    Darden’s same-store sales rose 0.7%, less than the 1.7% increase expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount estimates.
    Executives blamed this winter’s low temperatures and snowstorms for the disappointing quarter ended Feb. 23. When excluding weather, same-store sales across all four of Darden’s segments grew during the quarter, and only consumers making less than $50,000 were spending less at its casual-dining restaurants.
    “Even if [consumers] say they’re feeling feeling less optimistic, we haven’t seen a huge correlation between that and dining out,” CEO Rick Cardenas told analysts on the company’s conference call. “So I think as long as incomes are going up and outpacing inflation, I think they’re likely to keep spending.”
    Both Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, which are typically the two standouts of Darden’s portfolio, reported underwhelming same-store sales growth. Olive Garden’s same-store sales rose 0.6%. Analysts were anticipating same-store sales growth of 1.5%. And LongHorn’s same-store sales increased 2.6%, missing analysts’ expectations of 5% growth.
    In February, Olive Garden finished rolling out delivery with Uber Direct. The chain’s delivery customers typically spend 20% more than the average curbside pickup order, and Olive Garden saw delivery order volume increase every week.
    “Now at the end of the third quarter, our pilot restaurants were running around 2.5% of sales in delivery, and the other restaurants were following that same pattern,” Cardenas said.
    In the first three weeks of March, both Olive Garden and LongHorn saw strong momentum, executives said.
    Darden’s fine dining segment, which includes The Capital Grille and Ruth’s Chris Steak House, reported same-store sales declines of 0.8%. The segment saw stronger demand during the holiday season, but consumers pulled back again in the new year.
    “We are seeing more persistent check management post-holidays, so I guess we’re not ready to claim victory yet on fine dining. It’s still soft,” CFO Raj Vennam said.
    The last segment of Darden’s business, which includes Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen and Yard House, saw same-store sales shrink 0.4% in the quarter.
    For the full year, Darden reiterated its forecast for revenue of $12.1 billion. It narrowed its outlook for adjusted earnings from continuing operations to a range of $9.45 to $9.52 per share. Its prior forecast was $9.40 to $9.60 per share.
    Darden’s fiscal 2025 outlook includes Chuy’s results, but the Tex-Mex chain won’t be included in its same-store sales metrics until the fiscal fourth quarter in 2026.

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    Correction: A previous version of this story misattributed a quote about Darden’s fine-dining business. More

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    February home resales jump much more than expected, despite higher mortgage rates

    Inventory at the end of February stood at 1.24 million units, an increase of 17% year over year.
    The median price of a home sold in February was $398,400, up 3.8% from the same time last year.
    Sales were only higher annually in the highest price categories, above $750,000.

    Sales of previously owned homes in February rose 4.2% from January to 4.26 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Industry analysts had expected a drop of 3%.
    Sales were 1.2% lower compared with February of last year.

    This count is based on closings, so contracts signed in December and January, when mortgage rates were rising and briefly held in the 7% range on the 30-year fixed. Rates today are in the high 6% range.
    “Home buyers are slowly entering the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a release. “Mortgage rates have not changed much, but more inventory and choices are releasing pent-up housing demand.”
    Sales were only higher annually in the highest price categories, above $750,000. Sales around the median price were down 3% year over year.
    Inventory at the end of February stood at 1.24 million units, an increase of 17% year over year, but still just a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace. A six-month supply is considered balanced between buyer and seller.
    “We are still in a relatively tight market condition,” Yun said.

    That tight supply is keeping pressure on prices. The median price of a home sold in February was $398,400, up 3.8% from the same time last year. That is a record high for the month of February. All four geographical regions of the country saw price increases.

    A “For Sale” sign outside of a home in Atlanta, Georgia.
    Dustin Chambers | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    First-time buyers edged back into the market, making up 31% of February sales compared with 26% the year before. Investors, however, pulled back, accounting for just 16% of sales, down from 21% last year.
    All-cash sales, however, remained relatively steady at 32% of sales, down just slightly from the year before. Cash is usually favored by investors, so this suggests, given the drop in investor sales, that more owner-occupants are using cash.
    While these sales were higher than expected, they are more indicative of the market two months ago than they are now. A separate survey of real estate agents in February from John Burns Research and Consulting found more than half of respondents indicated this spring’s resale market is weaker than normal. This resale index dropped for the first time in four months.
    “Current sales ratings remain weak, with 53% of agents reporting weaker than normal sales. This is better than 56% one year ago but lower than January’s 47%. Affordability constraints and economic uncertainty keep many buyers on the sidelines,” according to the report from John Burns.

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    Tariffs are ‘simply inflationary,’ economist says: Here’s how they fuel higher prices

    Tariffs are expected to raise the U.S. inflation rate in 2025, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
    U.S. businesses pass tariff costs on to consumers, both directly and indirectly, economists said.
    An increase in the inflation rate may be relatively short-lived, if tariffs amount to a one-time price increase, economists said.

    Fang Dongxu/VCG via Getty Images

    There was an oft-repeated message in Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday: Tariffs will raise consumer prices.
    The U.S. central bank raised its inflation forecast for 2025, as have many economists, due to the expected impact of a trade war initiated by the Trump administration.

    “A good part of it is coming from tariffs,” Powell said of the Fed’s elevated inflation estimate.
    “I do think with the arrival of the tariff inflation, further progress may be delayed,” Powell said.
    His statement comes at a time when pandemic-era inflation has gradually declined but hasn’t yet been fully tamed to the Fed’s goal of a 2% annual inflation rate.
    “Tariffs are simply inflationary, despite what [President] Donald Trump may tell people,” said Bradley Saunders, a North America economist at Capital Economics.

    Why tariffs raise consumer prices

    Tariffs are a tax on imports. U.S.-based importers — say, clothing retailers or supermarkets — pay the tax so goods can clear customs and enter the country.

    Tariffs raise prices for consumers in a few ways, economists said.
    For one, tariffs add costs for U.S. businesses, which may charge higher prices at the store rather than take a hit on profits, Saunders said.
    Tariffs are a protectionist economic policy, meaning they seek to protect U.S. businesses from international competition by making foreign products more expensive.
    Consumers may switch to a U.S. product rather than pay a higher price for the foreign counterpart. However, that logic may not pan out. The U.S. substitute was likely more expensive than the foreign product to start, Saunders said — otherwise, why wouldn’t consumers buy the U.S.-produced good to begin with?
    So tariffs may still leave the consumer paying more, whichever products they choose to buy, he said.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers remarks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the Federal Reserve on March 19, 2025 in Washington, DC.
    Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

    Tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, for example, would cost the typical U.S. household about $1,200 a year, according to a February analysis by economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. (This analysis modeled the direct costs of a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, and 10% additional tariff on China.)
    The president’s economic agenda, including tariffs, will create new jobs, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in response to a request for comment from CNBC about the inflationary impact of tariffs.

    Indirect tariff impact

    Trump has imposed a slew of tariffs since taking office in January.
    The Trump administration raised levies on imports from China and on many products from Canada and Mexico — the three biggest trade partners of the U.S. It put 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum and plans to put reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. trade partners in April. The White House also signaled duties on copper and lumber are forthcoming.
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    During his first term, President Trump imposed tariffs on about $380 billion of imports, in 2018 and 2019, according to the Tax Foundation. The Biden administration kept most of them intact.
    This time around, the tariffs are much broader. They currently impact more than $1 trillion, the Tax Foundation said. The sum will increase to $1.4 trillion if temporary exemptions for some Canadian and Mexican products lapse in early April, it said.
    It was largely a “U.S.-China” trade war during Trump’s first term, Saunders said. “Now it’s a “U.S.-everyone trade war,” he said.
    There are indirect consumer impacts from tariffs, too, economists said.
    To that point, many U.S. companies use products subject to tariffs to manufacture their goods.

    Take steel, for example: Automakers, construction firms, farm-equipment manufacturers and many other businesses use steel as a production input.
    Tariffs may raise auto prices by $4,000 to as much as $12,500, depending on different factors like vehicle type, according to an estimate by consulting firm Anderson Economic Group.
    Builders estimate that recent tariffs will add $9,200 to the cost of a typical home, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
    Economic studies suggest that, while tariffs may create jobs in certain protected U.S. industries, they ultimately cost U.S. jobs on a net basis, after accounting for retaliation and higher production costs for other industries.
    “By trying to protect certain industries, you can actually make other industries more vulnerable,” Lydia Cox, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who studies international trade, said during a recent webinar.

    Short-term ‘pain’?

    Trump has said the administration’s tariff policy may cause short-term “pain” for Americans.
    Economists stress that there’s ample uncertainty, and that a bump in inflation may be temporary rather than something that raises prices consistently over the long term.
    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent alluded to this outcome during a recent CNBC interview.
    “Tariffs are a one-time price adjustment,” Bessent said. He also the Trump administration was “not getting much credit” for falling costs of oil and mortgages rates.

    The Federal Reserve raised its 2025 inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.8% in its summary of economic projections issued Wednesday, up from its 2.5% estimate in December. (This projection is for the “core” Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and core prices strip out the volatile food and energy categories.)
    Similarly, Goldman Sachs Research expects core PCE to “reaccelerate” to 3% in 2025, up about half a percentage point from its prior forecast.
    “It’s really hard to know how this is going to work out,” Fed chair Powell said. More