Raphael Stevens

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan plunged 12 basis points to 6.63% on Thursday.
For the four weeks ending March 30, the typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly payment hit a record high for the second week in a row, reaching $2,802.
In March, there was a 10% annual jump in new listings, with active listings up roughly 28%.

Mortgage rates fell sharply Thursday following the Trump administration’s tariff announcement.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan plunged 12 basis points to 6.63%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That put it at the lowest level since October.

The massive sell-off in the stock market early Thursday sent investors fleeing to the bond market. That caused bond yields to drop. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, and they had been moving in a very narrow range since late February.
“While plenty of uncertainty remains over the finer points of Wednesday afternoon’s tariff announcement, markets have heard enough to brace for impact on global trade,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.
The drop in rates comes at a good time for the housing market, as the historically busy spring season kicks into gear. But there are several other factors working against buyers and hitting home affordability hard.
For the four weeks ending March 30, the typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly payment hit a record high for the second week in a row, reaching $2,802, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage.
“Sale prices are up 3.4% year over year, and the weekly average mortgage rate is 6.65%, near its lowest level since December but more than double pandemic-era lows,” according to the report.

Even with a slight drop in mortgage rates Thursday, roughly 70% of households, or 94 million, cannot afford a $400,000 home; the estimated median price of a new home is around $460,000 in 2025, according to the National Association of Home Builders. This calculation was based on income thresholds and underwriting standards.
The minimum income required to purchase a $200,000 home at the mortgage rate of 6.5% is $61,487, according to the report. In 2025, about 52.87 million households in the U.S. are estimated to have incomes no more than that threshold and, therefore, can only afford to buy homes priced up to $200,000.
While there is a growing supply of homes coming onto the market, that supply is not at the price point where it is most in demand, meaning, it’s not on the lower end. It is also, in general, far lower than it has been historically, due to chronic underbuilding since the Great Recession.
“Supply is picking up; a lot of people I’ve spoken to over the last year or two are calling, saying they’re ready to list their house,” said Matt Ferris, a Redfin agent in northern Virginia. “Some believe we’re at the top of the market, and they want to get top dollar for their house. Here in the D.C. area, some people are selling because they’re worried about losing their government job, or because they want to buy closer to the city due to in-office policies.”
As for the spring season so far, March saw a 10% annual jump in new listings, with active listings up roughly 28% year over year, according to Realtor.com. But it also found homes sitting on the market longer and the share of listings with price reductions rising. Pending sales, which are signed contracts on existing homes, fell 5.2% from last March in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas. 
Some of the steepest declines were in Jacksonville, Florida, and Miami, Florida — down 15.1% and down 13.7%, respectively — where the markets have been softening due in part to reverse pandemic migration. Virginia Beach, Virginia, saw a 14.2% decline.
“The high cost of buying coupled with growing economic concerns suggest a sluggish response from buyers in early spring. We’re seeing a market that’s rebalancing, offering more choices for shoppers,” Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, wrote in a release. “Recent improvements in mortgage rates bode well for the later spring and early-summer housing season, as long as economic concerns settle and don’t knock buyers off course.” More

President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles to the U.S. have taken effect, but the impacts of the new levies could take years to unfold.
In the near term, auto industry investors should expect continued volatility in automaker and supplier stocks, according to Wall Street analysts.
CNBC breaks down what investors should know about how the additional levies will impact individual vehicles and automakers.

Vehicles seen on the lot of a Ford auto dealership in Montebello, California on April 1, 2025.
Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images

DETROIT — President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles to the U.S. have taken effect, but the impacts of the new levies on investors and the global automotive industry will play out over the months, if not years, to come.
The 25% tariffs are on any vehicle not assembled in the U.S., which S&P Global Mobility reports accounted for 46% of the roughly 16 million vehicles sold domestically last year. The White House has said it also plans to place tariffs on some auto parts such as engines and transmissions, but those are set to take effect no later than May 3.

Wall Street analysts and investors have been bearish on the tariffs, which some believe could decimate company earnings and drive the automotive industry into a recession.
“A 25% on automotive imports lasting beyond four to six weeks would likely have a chilling effect on the entire sector as [automakers] need to grapple with significant impact to the bottom line,” Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska said in a recent note to investors.
TD Cowen’s Itay Michaeli described the tariffs to investors as “close to the worst case outcome vs. recent expectations,” while Barclays’ Dan Levy said “there are no ‘winners’ in the absolute – only relative winners.”
Trump has admitted there may be some “pain” initially with the tariffs, but the president said he believes the actions will bolster American jobs in the long term and result in more than $100 billion of new annual revenue to the U.S.

Automakers were lobbying for vehicles and parts that are compliant with Trump’s United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement to be tariff-free, but so far there have been no exemptions for vehicles.

There might end up being caveats for auto parts that are still yet to be finalized, but auto stocks will likely remain volatile, Wall Street analysts warned.
As the impacts of the tariffs continue to unfold, investors should be aware of which companies are expected to be most at risk, what vehicles will be impacted and just how much the levies are expected to affect earnings.

U.S.-built does not mean U.S.-made

Simply put, no vehicle is completely sourced and produced domestically.
Even if vehicles are produced in the U.S. — meaning the final assembly takes place in the country — the tens of thousands of parts for new cars and trucks come from a global supply chain.
“We stress that the concept of a U.S. car maker with parts all from the U.S. is a fictional tale that does not exist and would take years to make this concept a reality,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in an investor note Wednesday.
For example, Ford Motor’s F-150 is exclusively assembled in the U.S. but has roughly 2,700 main billable parts, which exclude many small pieces, according to Caresoft, an engineering benchmarking and consulting firm. Those parts come from at least 24 different countries, Caresoft said.

Ford-150 pickup trucks are displayed for sale at a dealership on March 24, 2025 in Austin, Texas. 
Brandon Bell | Getty Images

Ultimately, the rollout of the tariffs on auto parts will be key, and could potentially bring some relief for automakers, depending on their supply chain network.
Parts that are currently compliant with the USMCA trade deal will be tariff-free, but only until the secretary of commerce and Customs and Border Protection establish processes to impose levies on non-U.S. content.
Automakers under USMCA also are expected to have an opportunity to have U.S. content equate to a reduction in their tariff calculation, according to the White House.

Automakers most impacted

S&P Global Mobility reports Volvo, Mazda, Volkswagen and Hyundai Motor (including Genesis and Kia brands) are the most at risk from a vehicle standpoint, as at least 60% of their respective U.S. sales were imported from outside the U.S. in 2024.
Ford, General Motors, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis produced the most vehicles in the U.S., according to S&P Global Mobility. Those five automakers accounted for 67% of U.S. passenger light-vehicle production in 2024.
But Bernstein estimates 57% of the value content in U.S.-assembled vehicles is imported, which means companies such as Ford — the No. 1 U.S. producer of cars and trucks — are still set to be significantly impacted by the tariffs.
Among the Detroit automakers, Bernstein reports GM faces the highest exposure to tariffs, driven by its more than 80% North America revenue share, 48% vehicle import rate, and less than 40% U.S. parts content in domestic builds.

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Bernstein estimated GM’s earnings before interest and taxes could drop 79% as a result of the tariffs, an 81% decline in earnings per share and a $4.1 billion hit to free cash flow.
That compares with Bernstein’s estimates for Ford of a 16.5% hit to EBIT, 23% decline in EPS and 36% drop to free cash flow.
Stellantis, Bernstein estimates, is least affected, with only 40% of global revenue from the U.S. and 56% local parts content, resulting in a roughly $1 billion EBIT impact, 8.75% lower net income and a roughly $540 million hit to free cash flow.
Excluding potential tariffs on parts, U.S. electric vehicle leader Tesla as well as EV startups Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group are far better positioned. All of their vehicles sold in the U.S. have final assembly in the country.
“Tesla is the clear structural winner: localized, strong market share, better insulated from trade risk. For everyone else, this is a margin reset and real drag on near-term earnings power,” Bernstein’s Roeska said.

U.S. auto sales

U.S. auto sales in the first quarter came in well above industry expectations, as consumers flocked to buy new vehicles ahead of the tariffs taking effect, which many expect to result in higher vehicle prices.
“Along with increasing costs for importing vehicles, costs will increase for auto manufacturing in the US, and consumer costs for vehicles will increase,” S&P Global Mobility said in a tariff report last week.
S&P expects U.S. light-vehicle sales could migrate to between 14.5 million and 15 million units annually in the coming years, if the tariffs remain in effect. That compares with roughly 16 million vehicles sold in 2024.

Read more CNBC auto news

Entry-level, less expensive vehicles are most at risk of being cut or seeing price increases, according to Wall Street and industry analysts. That’s because automakers often have tried to produce such vehicles, which historically have small profit margins, in lower-cost countries to the U.S.
For example, GM imported more than 400,000 entry-level crossovers for its Buick and Chevrolet brands last year from South Korea, tariff-free. The company has touted the vehicles as being the pinnacle for the automaker’s profitable growth in lower-margin, entry-level vehicles.
Other entry-level or more affordable vehicles that are set to be tariffed include the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V from Canada as well as the Ford Maverick, Ford Bronco Sport and Chevrolet Equinox from Mexico.
Bank of America estimates new vehicle prices — which currently run an average of about $48,000 — could increase as much as $10,000 if automakers pass the tariffs on impacted vehicles in full on to consumers.
Automakers have largely been silent on how much they intend to increase vehicle prices due to the new auto tariffs, as well as additional levies on parts, aluminum and steel — if they raise prices at all.
“We continue to evaluate all of the scenarios,” Hyundai Motor North America CEO Randy Parker said Tuesday about potential price increases. “But what I would say to our customers is that, just like all things in life, tomorrow is never guaranteed. And if you’re interested in buying a car, right now is a great time to buy a car, because as of today, we haven’t [risen] prices.” More