Raphael Stevens

Home Depot fell short of third-quarter earnings estimates, its third straight miss, and cut its full-year profit outlook.
The company said slow consumer spending and a weaker housing market have made home improvement demand worse than it expected.

The Home Depot logo is displayed on a sign outside of a store on Sept. 6, 2025 in San Diego, California.
Kevin Carter | Getty Images

Home Depot on Tuesday cut its full-year profit forecast and missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations for the third straight quarter as it saw weaker home improvement demand, tepid consumer spending and lower-than-usual storm activity.
The retailer said it now expects full-year sales will climb about 3% and comparable sales, which take out the impact of one-time factors like store openings and calendar differences, to be slightly positive. That compares with its previous expectations for full-year sales to grow by 2.8% and comparable sales to increase by 1%.

The revised outlook includes an estimated $2 billion in incremental revenue from GMS, a building products distributor that Home Depot acquired earlier this year. The company’s sales were not part of its previous full-year guidance.
Home Depot expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to decline by about 5% from the year-ago period, compared with its prior expectations that they would fall by about 2%
In a CNBC interview, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said the retailer previously expected home improvement activity would increase. It also anticipated higher sales of roofing materials, generators and other supplies that typically sell before and after seasonal storms.
Neither dynamic materialized, he said, putting pressure on the business. 
“When we set guidance, we had anticipated that demand would begin to accelerate gradually in the back half of the year as interest rates and mortgage rates eased,” he said. “But what we saw was that ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting home improvement demand.”

Here’s what Home Depot reported for the fiscal third quarter compared with Wall Street’s estimates, according to a survey of analysts by LSEG:

Earnings per share: $3.74 adjusted vs. $3.84 expected
Revenue: $41.35 billion vs. $41.11 billion expected

Home Depot’s stock dropped more than 3% in premarket trading Tuesday. As of Monday’s close, the company’s shares are down about 8% so far this year. That trails the S&P 500’s 13% gains during the same period.
For Home Depot, housing turnover typically sparks larger and more lucrative projects as customers fix up their homes before or after moving. Those big projects, however, have dropped in frequency as higher interest rates have led to steeper mortgage rates and borrowing costs for loans, which a homeowner may use to pay for a kitchen remodel or major addition.
Since roughly the middle of 2023, McPhail has told CNBC that homeowners have been in a “deferral mindset.” That’s led to a bit of a waiting game for Home Depot, as it holds out for either lower mortgage rates or a shift by consumers who get used to higher mortgage rates as the new normal.
In the most recent three-month period, that waiting game continued. McPhail told CNBC that demand was “stable” from the fiscal second quarter to the third quarter when adjusting for the lack of hurricanes. 
But, he added, “at this point, it’s hard to identify near-term catalysts that would lead to acceleration.” 
Home Depot’s net income for the three-month period that ended Nov. 2 dropped to $3.60 billion, or $3.62 per share, from $3.65 billion, or $3.67 per share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenue decreased from $40.22 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Adjusting for one-time items, including the value of intangible assets, Home Depot reported earnings of $3.74 per share.
Average ticket, the typical amount spent by customers at the store or on the company’s website, rose 1.8% year over year in the quarter. However, customer transactions fell 1.6% year over year.
Comparable sales rose 0.2% in the quarter, falling short of analysts’ expectations of 1.4% growth, according to StreetAccount.
A bright spot in the quarter was online sales, which rose by 11% year over year, McPhail said.
Compared with other big-box retailers, Home Depot’s customers tend to be more financially stable. About 90% of its do-it-yourself customers own their homes and the home professionals who shop at the retailer tend to get hired by homeowners.
Even so, McPhail said Home Depot’s weaker outlook came in part because shoppers across income groups are reluctant to take on high-dollar projects. He said a slower housing market and the higher cost of borrowing has contributed to the trend.
He said other factors may also be having a chilling effect, including the prolonged government shutdown, an uptick in corporate layoff announcements and a decline in home values in some markets.
As do-it-yourself customers postpone bigger projects, the company has tried to attract more business from contractors, roofers and other professionals.
The company has made two key purchases of pro-related companies. Last year, it bought Texas-based SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion — the largest acquisition in its history. The company sells supplies to professionals in the landscaping, pool and roofing businesses. Home Depot acquired GMS earlier this year.
Like other retailers, Home Depot has felt the pinch of higher costs on some imported items because of tariffs. McPhail said in May that the company was diversifying the countries where it sourced its goods and intended to “generally maintain our current pricing levels across our portfolio.”
However, company leaders warned in August that it may have to hike prices in some categories because of higher tariffs.
McPhail told CNBC that Home Depot has increased some items’ prices, but said “where there were price actions, they were modest.” 
He said Home Depot has kept prices the same for some key items or even been able to reduce them. For example, he said, its bestselling 7½-foot Grand Duchess Christmas tree and many of its strings of lights for trees have dropped in price.  More

Toyota Motor on Tuesday said it will invest $912 million in U.S. manufacturing plants in five Southern states.
The investment follows the Japanese automaker last week confirming plans announced by President Donald Trump to invest up to $10 billion in the U.S. by 2030.
The largest investment announced Tuesday is $453 million in Toyota’s Buffalo, West Virginia, plant to increase assembly of four-cylinder hybrid-compatible engines.

2023 Prius Prime on display, April 6, 2023.
Scott Mlyn | CNBC

Toyota Motor on Tuesday announced plans to invest $912 million in U.S. manufacturing plants in five Southern states as part of a previously announced plan for the company to invest up to $10 billion domestically by 2030.
The investments announced Tuesday are broadly meant to support increasing production of hybrid vehicles, which Toyota leads with a more than 51% market share through the third quarter of this year, according to Motor Intelligence data. Most of the investments are expected to be completed by 2027.

The largest investment announced Tuesday is $453 million in Toyota’s Buffalo, West Virginia, plant to increase assembly of four-cylinder hybrid-compatible engines.
Other investments include $204.4 million in a plant in Georgetown, Kentucky, for four-cylinder hybrid-compatible engines and $125 million to expand Corolla production in Blue Springs, Mississippi, to include hybrid models.

The investments are expected to create 252 new jobs, according to Toyota, which is the second largest seller of new vehicles in the U.S. behind General Motors.
“Customers are embracing Toyota’s hybrid vehicles, and our U.S. manufacturing teams are gearing up to meet that growing demand,” Kevin Voelkel, Toyota Motor North America senior vice president of manufacturing operations, said in a release. “Toyota’s philosophy is to build where we sell, and by adding more American jobs and investing across our U.S. footprint, we continue to stay true to that philosophy.”
The Tuesday investment announcement comes less than a week after the Japanese automaker confirmed plans that were announced last month by President Donald Trump to invest up to $10 billion more than previously expected over the next five years in the U.S.

It also comes days after Toyota scion and Chairman Akio Toyoda reportedly wore a “Make America Great Again” hat and T-shirt featuring Trump and Vice President JD Vance while hosting a racing event at the Fuji Speedway in Japan.
Automotive News on Sunday reported Toyoda, a racer and car enthusiast, hosted U.S. Ambassador George Glass at the event, which also included comments about tariffs.
“I’m not here to argue whether tariffs are good or bad. Every national leader wants to protect their own auto industry,” Toyoda reportedly said. “We are exploring ways to make tariffs a winner for everyone. The people we want most to be winners are our customers.”
Toyota and the entire automotive industry have been trying to navigate production plans amid regulatory changes impacting all-electric vehicles and Trump’s litany of tariffs this year on new vehicles and auto parts. More

Netflix has been building out its original content library and now has enough popular programming to warrant a major investment in the retail space.
The streaming giant has partnered with toy companies like Hasbro, Mattel and Jazwares to bring merchandise to store shelves across a broad range of segments.
Netflix is also expanding its live event and immersive entertainment business with restaurant pop-ups and permanent venues like Netflix House in Philadelphia, which opened last week.

People linger in the restaurant of the Netflix House experience center.
Andrej Sokolow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Netflix was the early leader in streaming. It’s been later to another crucial piece of the media playbook — merchandising and live events.
The streamer has only recently begun adopting tried-and-true marketing methods that have been in play for the likes of the Walt Disney Company, Universal and Warner Bros. Discovery for decades: Namely, consumer product partnerships, special release events and venue destinations that drive fan engagement.

In January, the company struck its first master licensing deal with Jazwares, the maker of Squishmallows, to develop a product line for “Stranger Things,” including figures, play sets, toy vehicles, costumes and stuffed toys. Jazwares has existing partnerships with brands like Pokemon, Star Wars, Peppa Pig and Hello Kitty.
More recently, Netflix signed a landmark licensing deal with toy giants Hasbro and Mattel to develop toys and consumer products based off smash hit “KPop Demon Hunters.”
And this month, the company opened Netflix House in Philadelphia, a venue that features immersive experiences, interactive games, live performances and themed dining. A Dallas location of the concept is set to open in December, and another is expected in Las Vegas in 2027.

The entrance to the Netflix House experience center.
Andrej Sokolow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The launches play off Netflix’s robust slate of titles across television and film, which also includes “Bridgerton,” “Squid Game” and “Wednesday.”
“You need that foundation of IP to really build off to have that consumer product strategy,” Marian Lee, Netflix’s chief marketing officer, told CNBC. “It’s the beauty of working at a place like Netflix, because we are constantly pivoting and looking at new opportunities.”

Netflix is a relative newcomer in Hollywood. Only in the last decade has it been building out its library of original and proprietary content.
The streamer’s first original series release was 2012’s “Lilyhammer,” a Norwegian crime show about the misadventures of a mafia underboss living in the witness protection program. Its original programming really took off with 2013’s “House of Cards,” a political thriller about a ruthless congressman bent on revenge after being passed over for Secretary of State — the first series produced exclusively for the streaming service.
“They’re still a young company in the grand scheme of things,” said Alicia Reese, an analyst at Wedbush. “They had to build out their content first and fandom had to occur organically.”
That’s one of the reasons why the company didn’t launch a consumer products division until 2019 or an officially licensed online shop until 2021.
Before that, the streaming giant had been working with consumer brands to create T-shirts, mugs, plush toys and the like. It was predominantly working with licensees, collecting fees for other companies to design and make the products, or participating in brand partnerships where no fees were exchanged.
At the time, those strategies helped Netflix reap the benefit of more exposure. Now, Netflix is taking the reins.
“This is a great turning point for [Netflix] … the pivot into merchandising efforts,” Reese said. “But, also, I wouldn’t limit it to merchandising efforts. There is also games and gaming.”
In addition to deals with Epic Games’ “Fortnite,” in which players can purchase cosmetic items from “Stranger Things,” “Squid Game,” “Wednesday” and “KPop Demon Hunters,” Netflix also has a collection of mobile games based on its original content.
There’s also Netflix’s growing live entertainment business.
Since 2020, the company has launched more than 40 experiences in 300 cities. This includes “Bridgerton” events like The Queen’s Ball, which took place in nearly a dozen cities globally in 2022 and 2023 and invited guests to dress in their Regency-era finest for a themed party, as well as a concert series through Candlelight featuring music from the show.

Shonda Rhimes, Golda Rosheuvel and cast members visit The Queen’s Ball: A Bridgerton Experience in New York on April 30, 2023.
Ilya S. Savenok | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

There was also an immersive experience centered on “Stranger Things” that allowed fans to explore Hawkins Lab and other iconic locations from the series in more than a dozen cities. It’s currently running in Abu Dhabi and will open in Mexico City next month. And, a play called “Stranger Things: The First Shadow” has been running in the West End in London since 2023.
Netflix’s merchandise and live events strategy is not just a way for the company to generate additional revenue outside of its streaming subscriptions. It helps keep fans engaged with its content during show hiatuses and in between movie sequels.
“KPop Demon Hunters,” for example, isn’t expected to have a follow-up film until 2029.
“You know, 2029 that’s a long wait,” Reese said. “But, having the merchandise, having pop-up shops or live events or some sort of fan engagement in the interim will definitely help to keep that engagement alive until they have the next content release.”
The strategy has been part of Disney’s playbook for decades. The company has used its IP as an anchor in its theme parks, cruise lines and resort locations as well as in the retail space to give fans more points of connection for the stories they love and keep them engaged with the brand in between film and television releases.
Netflix is now adopting this method and has been deliberate in what kinds of products and experiences it delivers to fans as it dives further into the segment.
“Bridgerton” merchandise includes tea sets, elegant pajamas, candles, beauty supplies and even curated dog accessories, all with a delicate, pastel color palate. The “Stranger Things” product line includes items like specialty Eggo waffles, Dungeons & Dragons sets, ’80s-themed fashion items and a bolder, darker color scheme.
“We think about it both as an extension of the fandom, but also as an extension of the storytelling,” Netflix’s Lee said of the company’s merchandising strategy. “A sticker book for ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ is not going to be a revenue driver for us, but if you’re a kid that loves that… a sticker book might be the perfect thing you pick up, that sort of low-dollar commitment. So, for us, across every IP and across every category, we are balancing a commercial opportunity that we think will drive revenue and also things that bring fans joy.”
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC. Versant would become the new parent company of CNBC upon Comcast’s planned spinoff of Versant. More

Panera Bread has unveiled a turnaround strategy to reverse years of traffic declines.
Once the top U.S. fast-casual chain, Panera has dipped to number three, falling behind Chipotle Mexican Grill and Panda Express.
The plan includes improving the quality of ingredients, reinvesting in labor and leaning into a barbell menu strategy.

A Panera Bread sign hangs on the exterior of the restaurant on July 25, 2025 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

When Panera Bread began shrinking its sandwiches and skimping on salads, it started shedding customers.
Now, to win them back, the chain plans to reinvest in the business and undo many of those same cost-cutting measures, it said Tuesday.

Once the number one fast-casual brand in the U.S., Panera has dipped to number three, ceding the top spots to Chipotle Mexican Grill and Panda Express. Last year, its sales fell 5% to $6.1 billion, according to Technomic estimates. For years, the chain’s traffic has been shrinking, according to CEO Paul Carbone, who took the reins earlier this year. Controversy after the chain’s foray into energy drinks didn’t help matters, either.
Panera’s troubles have coincided with a tough year for fast-casual restaurants. Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Cava have all cut their full-year forecasts as they see younger consumers eating out less frequently.
Carbone has a plan to bring back customers. Under the strategy, named “Panera RISE,” the company aims to refresh its menu, focus on value, improve its service and build new restaurants. He said the plan has the backing of the franchisees who operate roughly half of its 2,200 U.S. locations, along with the support of JAB Holding, the investment arm of the Reimann family that owns the company.
Panera’s slide has been poorly timed for JAB. The firm has been plotting an IPO for the chain’s parent company Panera Brands, which also owns Caribou Coffee and Einstein Bros. Bagels.
In 2021, four years after taking the chain private, JAB struck a deal with Danny Meyer’s special purpose acquisition company for a merger that would take the company public again. But Panera scrapped those plans a year later, citing market conditions. In late 2023, the company confidentially filed for an initial public offering that still hasn’t happened.

When asked about the status of Panera’s IPO plans, Carbone told CNBC that the chain’s management team is currently focused on growing traffic and implementing the Panera RISE strategy.

Entering the value wars

Phase one of Panera’s plan is to improve the quality of its food, reversing cost-cutting measures imposed in the face of high inflation, according to Carbone.
“We squeezed food costs. We squeezed labor,” he said.
Some of those changes happened while Carbone was chief financial officer. He now calls himself a “reformed CFO” — albeit one who still listens to earnings conference calls.
“It’s really about death by a thousand paper cuts, it truly is,” Carbone said about the chain’s downturn.
Take Panera’s salads, for example. In the summer of 2024, Panera began using a mix of half romaine, half iceberg lettuce to make its salads, saving the chain money compared to when it was using romaine alone. This summer, the it reverted back to entirely romaine salads.
“You know what guests told us? No one likes iceberg, and no one gets that and says, ‘Oh my God, that white salad, it looks so appetizing,'” Carbone said.
And then there’s the cherry tomato. Carbone said Panera is one of the few restaurant chains that doesn’t slice the bite-sized tomatoes in half, a decision made to save on labor costs.
“We make the guest chase the cherry tomato around the bowl,” he said.
And when a salad comes with an avocado, customers have to cut the halved fruit themselves, rather than it coming pre-sliced. The chain will start slicing the cherry tomatoes and avocados early next year.
Plus, Panera’s salads typically have five ingredients, while those of competitors like Sweetgreen feature as many as eight.
But it wasn’t just salads that were affected by the cost-cutting measures.
“In some instances, we shrunk portions, so guests would walk into our cafe to buy a sandwich that has gone up significantly in price, with lower quality ingredients, in a smaller size,” Carbone said.
The menu refresh will also include new items. Last month, the chain announced that it is testing new “fresca” and “energy refresher” drinks.
Panera previously offered highly caffeinated energy drinks, but it discontinued the line, which included Charged Lemonade, following two wrongful death lawsuits and related negative publicity. Panera denied wrongdoing and settled the lawsuits earlier this year.
When it comes to value, Panera is planning on leaning into a barbell menu strategy, offering customers options on both the low- and high-price end. The approach has worked particularly well for casual-dining chains like Chili’s, but Panera doesn’t have the same appetizer offerings as a full-service restaurant.
“We haven’t cracked the code yet,” Carbone said. “We’re doing a lot of testing.”
Chains across the restaurant industry have embraced value offerings, from McDonald’s Extra Value Meal to Applebee’s “2 for $25” deal, igniting the so-called “value wars.” However, restaurants have to balance the desire to attract cash-strapped diners with maintaining their profit margins.
To improve the customer experience, Panera is planning to invest more into labor. Like many restaurants, Panera in recent years scheduled fewer workers and relied more on the self-order kiosks it pioneered in the industry. That approach saved money, but customers often walked into a cafe and couldn’t find an employee in sight, according to Carbone.
Panera will also invest back into its kiosks, which it hasn’t significantly upgraded since they first entered its restaurants roughly a decade ago. And its dining rooms will get a facelift, too.
If these changes succeed in bringing back lapsed customers, then Panera’s restaurants will become more profitable, fueling future restaurant growth. And those new bakery-cafes could look different.
“What does the cafe of the future look like? We’re doing a lot of work around that, we’re going to test different things,” Carbone said. More

Sinclair acquired a roughly 8% position in Scripps, it disclosed Monday.
The broadcast station owner has been undergoing a strategic review of its business and holding discussions with potential merger partners.
Scripps said in a statement it would “take all steps appropriate to protect the company and the company’s shareholders from the opportunistic actions of Sinclair or anyone else.”

Signage is displayed outside the Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc. headquarters in Cockeysville, Maryland, U.S.
Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Sinclair disclosed a stake in fellow broadcast station owner E.W. Scripps on Monday, in a move to push toward a merger of the companies.
Sinclair, which acquired a roughly 8% position in Scripps per the filing, recently launched a strategic review of its own business that could result in a tie-up. Scripps, for its part, has seen its struggles mount in the competitive industry and is among the smallest of its peers.

In the filing, Sinclair said it has been engaged in “constructive” discussions regarding a deal and believes that, if it were to reach an agreement, a transaction could be completed within nine to 12 months.
Sinclair said in the filing that based on trading multiples, there would be an expected $300 million in synergies if a merger were to take place.
Scripps’ stock rose 40% on Monday while Sinclair’s stock gained almost 5%.
Sinclair, which acquired the stake for about $15.6 million, declined to comment beyond the SEC filing.
In a statement on Monday, Scripps said its board “will take all steps appropriate to protect the company and the company’s shareholders from the opportunistic actions of Sinclair or anyone else.”

“Scripps’ board of directors and management are focused on driving value for all of the company’s shareholders through the continued execution of its strategic plan,” the company said in its statement. “The board and management are aligned on doing only what is in the best interest of all of the company’s shareholders as well as its employees and the many communities and audiences it serves across the United States.”
The statement added that the board continues to evaluate “any transactions and other alternatives that would enhance the value of the company and would be in the best interest of all company shareholders.”
Broadcast TV station group owners have suffered like the rest of media companies in recent years due to the shift away from the traditional pay-TV bundles and toward streaming. These broadcast stations, for the most part, make the majority of their money from so-called retransmission fees, which are paid on a per-subscriber rate by traditional TV distributors.
Broadcast station owners like Sinclair have been eager to do mergers as they push for deregulation under the Trump administration.
In August, Nexstar Media Group, the biggest owner of these stations, agreed to acquire Tegna for $3.54 billion.
Sinclair, meanwhile, is also considering spinning off or splitting its ventures unit, which includes pay-TV network The Tennis Channel and marketing technology business Compulse, which was recently rebranded to Digital Remedy.
Sinclair and its advisors held discussions with potential merger partners earlier this year, CNBC previously reported. More