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    Restaurants warn of weak first quarter, but say sales will pick up later this year

    Many restaurants reported improving sales in the fourth quarter, but executives warned that the first quarter will be weak.
    Freezing temperatures, wildfires and a still-cautious consumer led to lower sales in January.
    Chipotle, Wendy’s and McDonald’s are among the chains predicting stronger results in the second half of the year.

    A McDonald’s restaurant in El Sobrante, California, on Oct. 23, 2024.
    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    In like a lion, out like a lamb.
    That’s how restaurant executives envision 2025 after a rough start to the year, largely caused by freezing temperatures, wildfires and consumer caution.

    Many restaurant chains, like Restaurant Brands’ Burger King and Popeyes, said sales improved in the fourth quarter as value offerings brought back diners who had been cooking at home instead. Even McDonald’s domestic traffic grew, despite a 1.4% decline in U.S. same-store sales.
    But the trend reversed in January.
    “We’ve started the year facing some overall industry traffic headwinds, exacerbated by significant weather events across the country,” Wendy’s CFO Kenneth Cook said on the company’s conference call on Thursday.
    Fast-food net sales rose 3.4% in January, compared with the year-ago period, but the growth was down slightly from December’s spike of 4.9%, according to restaurant market research firm Revenue Management Solutions. Traffic for breakfast and lunch both declined during the month.
    “I think consumers are still wary,” Subway U.S. President Doug Fry told CNBC. “I think they’re waiting to see how the economy goes, but they’re also not willing to sacrifice that quality and portion size and the quantity of what they’re eating. They want to find that best value for the dollar they spend.”

    Traffic and sales growth are expected to pick up as the year progresses, in part due to the easy comparisons to last year’s declines. Industry traffic was negative every month except November, and sales slid over the summer, which is typically a high point for restaurants.
    “We expect year-over-year comparisons to ease into the summer months,” Restaurant Brands CFO Sami Siddiqui said.

    January blues

    A customer holds a bag of food outside of a Chipotle restaurant in New York on Jan. 12, 2024.
    Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    January always brings colder temperatures, but this year it also included wildfires in Los Angeles and new uncertainty after President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
    Chipotle Mexican Grill estimates that the wildfires hurt its January same-store traffic growth by 400 basis points, or 4%.
    Overall, traffic to Chipotle restaurants open at least a year fell 2% in January compared with a year ago, hurt by the weather and New Year’s Day falling on a Wednesday. Chipotle CFO Adam Rymer told analysts that the company believes its first-quarter same-store sales will be roughly flat.
    Looking to the second quarter, Chipotle also expects weaker same-store sales as it faces comparisons to last year’s popular promotions. While the company predicts stronger sales in the second half of the year, its weak forecast for the coming months led to a 4% decline in the stock.
    For now, restaurants aren’t predicting any major impact on their businesses from the Trump administration’s trade war. Chipotle, which imports roughly half of its avocado supply from Mexico, downplayed concerns about how currently suspended tariffs of 25% would raise food costs. The company, along with Wendy’s and McDonald’s, did not include any impact from the new 10% duties on China and potential levies on Mexico and Canada in its outlook.
    But consumers are worrying about tariffs and the potential pressure on their wallets.
    U.S. consumer sentiment hit a seven-month low in February as households fear rising prices over the next year. Already, inflation in January was hotter than expected, with away-from-home food prices rising 3.4% over the last 12 months, according to the Department of Labor.

    Second-half comeback

    For the chains plotting a comeback, sales are expected to improve later this year.
    For example, McDonald’s is still waiting for its sales to rebound fully after an E. coli outbreak linked to its Quarter Pounder burgers began weighing on sales in mid-October. The fast-food giant is predicting that demand will recover by the beginning of the second quarter, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said on the company’s conference call on Monday.
    Plus, if overall consumer health strengthens, McDonald’s predicts even more sales gains.
    “Should the underlying environment improve beyond our initial expectations, especially with respect to lower-income consumers, we would expect to benefit disproportionately relative to our competitors,” McDonald’s CFO Ian Borden said.

    People are seen leaving a Starbucks in New York City on Jan. 14, 2025.
    Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images

    Then there’s Starbucks, which will need a much longer timeline to turn around its business. The coffee chain’s same-store sales have fallen for four straight quarters as consumers opt to buy their caffeinated drinks elsewhere.
    Starbucks suspended its outlook for fiscal 2025, so it didn’t provide any insight into its expected sales for the year. However, Starbucks CFO Rachel Ruggeri told investors that the company’s earnings are expected to improve in the second half of its fiscal year.
    “[Earnings per share] is expected to be the lowest in [the fiscal second quarter] on an absolute basis due to seasonality, the organization restructuring I just spoke about and elevated investments, with year-over-year pressure also intensifying in the quarter,” she said in late January. “EPS is then expected to improve in the latter half of the fiscal year 2025, both sequentially and year-over-year.” More

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    Here’s how two apps are connecting Black-owned restaurants with new customers

    EatOkra and Black Foodie Finder spotlight Black-owned restaurants in their apps.
    EatOkra offers resources and visibility to independent restaurants amid a challenging economic landscape.
    Black Foodie Finder focuses on social media as a means to amplify Black food creators and businesses.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    EatOkra’s mobile app lists nearby Black-owned restaurants.
    Courtesy: EatOkra

    When Anthony Edwards Jr. and his then-girlfriend, Janique, first moved to Brooklyn in 2016, they struggled to find food that was comfortable and familiar to them.
    They explored their neighborhood, Edwards said, but had a hard time finding Black-owned restaurants nearby. There were few resources for doing so besides group chats and informal lists. So, with the encouragement of Janique, now his wife, he used his computer science degree to create a platform for users to find Black-owned eateries.

    The two co-founded EatOkra, an app that now has 20,000 monthly active users and brought in about $700,000 in revenue in 2024.
    “As we put it out there into the world, we saw people immediately gravitate and tell us frankly, ‘I’ve been looking for an app like this,’ and we still hear this to this day,” Edwards, EatOkra’s CEO and CTO, told CNBC.
    They weren’t the only ones. In 2020, Brax Rich was seeking a way to support Black-owned restaurants amid the Covid pandemic. He launched Black Foodie Finder, originally as a social media space to highlight eateries. Now, Black Foodie Finder has 1.3 million Instagram followers and spotlights restaurants, chefs and recipes in its app.
    “I think our impact has been really big,” Rich, CEO of Black Foodie Finder, told CNBC. “We would highlight a restaurant, and the next thing I know, the owner’s posting on social media, ‘Hey, where did all you new guys come from?'”
    Here’s a look at how these platforms are showcasing Black-owned businesses and Black food professionals:

    EatOkra looks to uplift independent restaurants

    EatOkra co-founders Janique and Anthony Edwards.
    Courtesy: EatOkra

    EatOkra users can search for Black-owned restaurants, caterers and food trucks based on keywords or proximity. About 20,000 businesses across the U.S. are available to browse in its database, including their locations, user reviews, contact information and online ordering options. EatOkra, named after the plant used in African diasporic dishes, also lists Black-owned food products in its marketplace.
    The platform offers two tiers for businesses seeking to join the database: a free Lite option and a paid Plus subscription that offers additional features, online business courses and more space on the app for $9.99 a month. Edwards said the Plus membership serves as EatOkra’s primary business model.
    EatOkra’s current partners include catering company ezCater and Pepsi Dig In, PepsiCo’s initiative to promote Black-owned businesses. It also collaborates with Apple Maps to help produce local guides to Black-owned eateries.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    Map feature on the Black Foodie Finder app.
    Courtesy: Black Foodie Finder

    The company provides resources on topics such as marketing, supply chain and restaurant growth, said Jason Wallace, EatOkra’s director of business solutions and a food service educator.
    “It’s been exactly what the independent restaurateur needs,” Wallace said. “There’s a mom-and-pop aspect that needs to be refined so that they can develop those CEO skill sets, those COO skill sets that EatOkra brings to the table. And quite frankly, it’s refreshing to the operator to know that they’re not out there by themselves.”
    Ken Polk, executive chef and partner at Batter & Berries, said the Chicago-based restaurant joined EatOkra several years ago to boost its visibility, especially among travelers who might use EatOkra to seek out local Black-owned businesses.
    “I thought the platform was ingenious, particularly in this day and age we live in, where things just get buried and it’s very hard to find something,” Polk told CNBC. “It’s a beacon.”
    Edwards said EatOkra’s efforts to build a community for Black-owned restaurants culminated in its Culinary Creatives Conference, which debuted in October in New York City. The one-day event brought about 500 attendees together to build connections, spotlight vendors and discuss business strategies.

    A panel at EatOkra’s Culinary Creatives Conference in New York City in October 2024.

    The most rewarding part, Edwards said, was seeing people find mentors and strike deals with other businesses. He hopes to eventually plan a multiday national conference.
    “This conference aims to be an incubator, be a catalyst for current and future entrepreneurs to come together — to get the education, to get the community and the networks they need,” Edwards told CNBC.
    Jeremy Joyce, founder of website Black People Eats, said EatOkra provides a platform for restaurants that don’t have the resources for marketing campaigns. He’s discovered numerous restaurants through EatOkra, he told CNBC.
    “What they’re doing is very impactful. Because I did the research, and there, at the time, was no other app who was doing what they were doing,” Joyce said.
    Clark Wolf, founder and president of restaurant consulting firm Clark Wolf Company, said EatOkra’s rise comes at a moment of increased representation and recognition of Black food culture. He cited the 2021 Netflix docuseries “High on the Hog: How African American Cuisine Transformed America” and the success of James Beard Award-winning chef Kwame Onwuachi as examples of the growing interest.
    “This is at a time when in American culture, even though there’s a push against it, we have been acknowledging Black history, African American influences in food and farming,” Wolf said.
    Still, challenges lie ahead for EatOkra and the businesses it supports. Wallace said fluctuating food prices, President Donald Trump’s push for more deportations and consumer disposable income all present potential headwinds for independent restaurants.
    “We’re still resolute in what we’re going to continue to do and who we’re going to fight for,” Edwards said. “That’s not going to change.”

    Black Foodie Finder fosters a food-loving network

    Rich said Black Foodie Finder is a one-stop shop for all things food and beverage in the Black community.
    Social media is Black Foodie Finder’s “meat and potatoes,” Rich said, and it often serves as a gateway for newcomers to BFF.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    The find chefs feature on the Black Foodie Finder app.
    Courtesy: Black Foodie Finder

    “It’s really just been about a community and, as we highlight these people, making sure we put them in their best light,” Rich told CNBC. “I honestly can say that’s been the best return. It’s kind of the secret sauce.”
    On BFF’s app, which has 75,000 active users and about 15,000 restaurant listings, users can find nearby Black-owned eateries as well as profiles for local chefs and recipes for dishes such as peach cobbler.
    Heather Rose, CEO of restaurant consulting firm Black Ink Team, said BFF’s spotlight on chefs boosts businesses by creating access to the people behind them.
    “It puts you directly in contact with the person who is the creative driver behind the business,” Rose told CNBC.

    An attendee displays a beverage at Black Foodie Finder’s inaugural BFF Cookout in Memphis, Tennessee, on Sept. 1, 2024.
    Courtesy: Black Foodie Finder

    Black Foodie Finder has previously inked corporate partnerships, but its current primary revenue source is its BFF Cookout, a food festival in Memphis, Tennessee, where the company is based. The inaugural cookout in September, with sponsors including Clorox-owned charcoal company Kingsford, brought about 3,000 people to Tom Lee Park for food vendors and musical performances.
    Rich said it was important for him that the cookout appealed to everyone, from families enjoying kid-friendly programming to vendors receiving fair compensation. The festival will return this year, he told CNBC, and he’s looking to expand it.
    “At the end of the event, our vendors came to us and were like, ‘Wherever you go, I want to follow,'” he said.
    Rich is also hoping to build out BFF’s media presence. The company is currently looking into producing short shows and video segments highlighting restaurants, possibly on television.

    Food being served at the BFF Cookout in Memphis, Tennessee, on Sept. 1, 2024.
    Courtesy: Black Foodie Finder

    It’s part of Rich’s vision for Black Foodie Finder as a go-to space to highlight businesses.
    “Most of the businesses and most of the people in the food space, they are experts at food,” Rich said. “Sometimes, they just don’t have the platforms or support to grow. And so that’s what we are. We are that support system.” More

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    Roku shares surge as company halves quarterly losses, adds 4 million streaming households

    Roku shares surged Friday morning on the heels of a stronger-than-expected quarterly report, reaching a new yearly high.
    CEO Anthony Wood said the company added more than four million new streaming households during its most recent quarter and is on track to reach 100 million streaming households in the next year.
    The company boosted revenue by 22% to $1.2 billion.

    Shares of Roku surged 14% Friday, notching a new 52-week high, on earnings that beat Wall Street expectations.
    In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” CEO Anthony Wood said more than half of U.S. broadband households now watch TV with Roku.

    Wood said the company added more than four million new streaming households during its most recent quarter and is on track to reach 100 million streaming households in the next year.
    The company’s growth was driven in part by the Roku user experience, including promoting content on its home screen, Wood told CNBC’s Julia Boorstin.
    “We’re the No. 1 streaming operating system in the country and in most of the Americas by a wide margin,” he said.
    Here’s how the company performed for the fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

    Loss per share: 24 cents vs. a loss of 40 cents expected
    Revenue: $1.2 billion vs. $1.14 billion expected

    The company boosted revenue by 22% to $1.2 billion. It reported a net loss for the period of $35.5 million, or 24 cents per share, an improvement from a net loss of $78.3 million, or 55 cents per share, during the same quarter a year earlier.

    Roku reported 89.8 million streaming households as of the end of 2024, a 12% year-over-year increase. Beginning next quarter, the company no longer expects to report that metric as it streamlines earnings reports to focus on revenue and profitability numbers.
    Roku also reported an 18% year-over-year increase in streaming hours in the fourth quarter, with a focus on continuing to grow ad demand through “deeper third-party platform integrations,” the company said in its earnings release.
    “Advertising is a big part of our business, and so a big focus for us in our strategy is to continue to grow demand by working with third-party partners,” Wood said.
    The company is forecasting net revenue of $1 billion and gross profit of $450 million for the first quarter of 2025.

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    Moderna beats on revenue but loses more than expected as it scales down manufacturing

    Moderna beat on fourth-quarter revenue but lost more than expected for the period, as the biotech company continues to slash costs and see lower demand for its Covid vaccine. 
    It marks another quarter of growing pains for the company, which is racing to launch new products and recover from the rapid decline of its once-booming Covid business. 
    Moderna reiterated its full-year 2025 product sales guidance of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, most of which will come in the second half of the year.

    The Moderna Inc. headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on March 26, 2024.
    Adam Glanzman | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Moderna on Friday posted fourth-quarter revenue that beat estimates, but lost more than expected for the period, as the biotech company continues to slash costs and demand for its Covid vaccine falls. 
    It marks another quarter of growing pains for the company, which is racing to launch new products and recover from the rapid decline of its once-booming Covid business. 

    Shares of Moderna fell more than 4% in premarket trading Friday.
    Moderna posted a net loss of $1.12 billion, or $2.91 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2024. That compares with net income of $217 million, or 55 cents per share, reported for the year-ago period.
    The company said the quarterly loss includes a roughly $238 million noncash charge related to ending a contract manufacturing agreement.
    In an interview, Moderna Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock said one of the most important takeaways from the company’s full-year 2024 results is that it reduced costs by 27% compared to 2023. By the end of 2025, Moderna expects to cut costs by $1 billion compared to 2024.
    Moderna reiterated its full-year 2025 product sales guidance of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, most of which will come in the second half of the year. Moderna expects only $200 million in sales to come in during the first half of the year due to seasonal demand for respiratory products, which typically rises in the fall and winter. 

    The company slashed its 2025 sales guidance by roughly $1 billion in January, causing its shares to plummet. The stock is now down more than 20% for the year. 
    At the time, Moderna pointed to increased competition in the Covid market, falling vaccination rates, timing around manufacturing contracts with a handful of countries and uncertainty around what advisors to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would recommend for revaccination of respiratory syncytial virus shots. 
    “Should those potential headwinds all hit, that’s what would bring us to the low end of our guidance,” Mock told CNBC, adding that the company is hoping to “combat” the challenges.
    Here’s what Moderna reported for the fourth quarter that ended Dec. 31 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

    Loss per share: $2.91 vs. an expected loss of $2.68
    Revenue: $966 million vs. $942.8 million expected

    Moderna posted fourth-quarter sales of $966 million, less than half of the $2.8 billion it recorded during the same period a year ago. 
    The vast majority of that total came from its Covid shot, which raked in $923 million, down 66% from the prior year. That includes $244 million in U.S. sales and $679 million from international markets. 
    Analysts had expected the jab to pull in $909 million in sales for the quarter, according to estimates compiled by StreetAccount. 
    Moderna said the decrease was mainly due to the earlier launch of the newest iteration of its Covid shot last year, which shifted sales into the third quarter. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the new vaccine three weeks earlier than in 2023, allowing Moderna to “meet demand more effectively ahead of the fourth quarter,” the company added. 
    Covid vaccine sales fell internationally because the company continued to phase out advance purchase agreements with certain countries, according to Moderna. 
    The company’s fourth-quarter revenue also included $15 million in U.S. sales of its RSV shot, which rolled out to seniors in the fall and winter after winning approval in May. It is Moderna’s second approved product after its Covid vaccine. 
    Analysts had expected sales of $13 million for the RSV vaccine, according to StreetAccount estimates. Moderna’s RSV shot is so far approved for adults age 60 and above in the U.S., European Union, Canada, Norway, Iceland and Qatar, among other countries. 
    The company is betting on a pipeline built around its messenger RNA platform, which is the technology used in both of those products. Moderna plans to beef up its portfolio with 10 new product approvals over the next three years. 
    During the fourth quarter, Moderna submitted three mRNA products for regulatory approval, including its “next-generation” Covid shot, combination shot targeting Covid and the flu and RSV vaccine for high-risk adults ages 18 to 59. Moderna expects a decision from the FDA on the next-generation Covid shot in May, and a potential expanded approval for the RSV shot in June, according to Mock.
    Moderna is also developing a stand-alone flu shot, a personalized cancer vaccine with Merck and shots for latent viruses, among other products. Some of those products will have data readouts later this year, Mock noted.
    Cost of sales for the fourth quarter was $739 million, down 20% from the same period a year ago. That includes $193 million in write-downs of unused doses of the Covid vaccine, among other costs. 
    Research and development expenses dropped 20% to $1.1 billion compared with the same period in 2023. Moderna said that decline was primarily due to lower clinical development and manufacturing expenses on its Covid, RSV, flu and combination shot programs, and partially offset by increased spending on other new experimental products. 
    Meanwhile, selling, general and administrative expenses for the period fell 25% to $351 million compared with the fourth quarter of 2023. SG&A expenses usually include the costs of promoting, selling and delivering a company’s products and services.

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    As Target and other retailers drop DEI programs, Black founders could face tougher battle to get and stay on shelves

    As more retailers like Walmart and Target drop DEI initiatives, companies’ efforts to find and fund Black-owned brands are also at risk.
    Gutting those efforts could jeopardize a valuable pathway for Black founders to build their businesses and reach the millions of shoppers who browse retailers’ websites and aisles.
    Yet companies including Sephora and Costco have stressed the importance of carrying products that reflect the diversity of their customers.

    Brown Girl Jane’s sales have more than doubled since the brand got picked up by Sephora last year. The beauty retailer took the 15 Percent Pledge, an effort to add more Black-owned brands to shelves.
    Courtesy: Brown Girl Jane

    Fragrance brand Brown Girl Jane’s perfume bottles sit on shelves at Sephora near some of the most storied labels in the fashion and beauty world, including Prada and Dior.
    For the Black-owned brand, getting a retailer to bet on it was just the start, Brown Girl Jane CEO and co-founder Malaika Jones said. She said Sephora has supported the company so it can better compete with well-known brands with huge marketing budgets and glossy celebrity endorsements.

    Brown Girl Jane got a $100,000 grant last year to help grow its business through Sephora’s Accelerate program, which aims to boost founders who are people of color. Sephora spotlighted the fragrance brand in an email to customers in early February, putting it in front of potential shoppers who don’t know its name. Brown Girl Jane’s sales more than doubled after Sephora began carrying the company’s fragrances online and at select stores about a year ago.
    While Sephora has put its weight behind its brand incubator, much larger retailers like Walmart and Target recently scaled back similar efforts focused on finding and funding more brands founded by people of color. Without that support from the retailers themselves, brands like Brown Girl Jane could face a tougher time getting on shelves — and succeeding once they get there.
    “For small brands, but for any brands, really, it’s a constant fight for relevance and for visibility,” Jones said. “And so when you don’t have that commitment or even that understanding from the retailer side, it becomes quite difficult for small brands to survive — even when they’ve made it on shelves.”

    Malaika Jones, CEO of Brown Girl Jane, founded the company with her sister, Nia Jones. Its products are now sold by Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s and Sephora.
    Courtesy: Brown Girl Jane

    When retailers launched supplier diversity programs — many of them in the months after police killed George Floyd in 2020 — top industry leaders including Walmart CEO Doug McMillon and Target CEO Brian Cornell spoke out about the institutional barriers that people of color face, including when financing their businesses. Now, as more retailers drop diversity, equity and inclusion programs, Black-owned brands may find it harder to clear those hurdles.
    In January, Target dropped specific DEI pledges that it made four years ago after Floyd was murdered a short distance from its Minneapolis headquarters. Among those goals, the big-box retailer had committed to adding products from more than 500 Black-owned brands to its shelves or website and spending $2 billion with Black-owned businesses by 2025.

    Late last year, Walmart confirmed that it was ending key diversity initiatives, including winding down the Center for Racial Equity, a nonprofit that the retailer started and funded with $100 million to tackle racial inequities. It had chosen finance as one of those focus areas, noting the gap in funding for Black entrepreneurs.
    Gutting those efforts could jeopardize a valuable pathway for Black founders to build their businesses and reach the millions of shoppers who browse the websites and aisles at the nation’s largest and best-known retailers.
    Not every major retailer has dropped DEI initiatives. Sephora, Costco and E.l.f. Beauty, among others, have reaffirmed their commitments. And the most prominent effort to increase the share of Black-owned brands on retail shelves, the 15 Percent Pledge, still has major backers.

    A larger retreat

    Companies from Google to Ford and Tractor Supply have rolled back their initiatives to boost representation of people of color, women and LGBTQ+ people, as political backlash and pressure from conservative activists has intensified. The trend only accelerated after President Donald Trump issued an executive order banning DEI programs in the federal government and describing the efforts as “dangerous, demeaning, and immoral race- and sex-based preferences.”
    It’s a sharp change from about five years ago, when companies released a wave of announcements committing to fighting inequity. They made bold pledges to add more diversity to their workforces and C-suites, seek out Black and minority vendors and donate to philanthropic causes that fought racism and supported expanded opportunities for marginalized groups.
    Fear of litigation, activist investor scrutiny and political pressure has caused companies to backpedal or keep their initiatives below the radar, said Jon Solorzano, an attorney at Vinson & Elkins who advises companies on DEI.
    One of those lawsuits targeted The Fearless Fund, an Atlanta-based venture capital fund dedicated to awarding grants to businesses founded by Black women to bridge a longstanding funding gap. Only 1.3% of the more than $345 billion raised by venture-backed startups in 2021 went to Black founders, according to Deloitte and Venture Forward’s 2023 report. About 2.4% went to startups led by female founders and 2.1% of that total went to startups led by Hispanic founders.
    American Alliance for Equal Rights, a conservative group founded by Edward Blum, sued The Fearless Fund in 2023, accusing it of discriminating against non-Black business owners. Blum previously fought against race-based college admissions, a campaign that led to the Supreme Court’s ruling that affirmative action policies are unconstitutional — which some companies cited last year in ending their DEI initiatives.
    As part of a settlement reached last year, The Fearless Fund shut down its grant program.
    Solorzano said that lawsuit had a chilling effect and will “seriously undermine some of these [supplier] initiatives.” He said he expects more corporations to scrub numbers from their diversity programs, including supplier programs focused on increasing Black- and minority-owned brands on shelves.
    Yet ending or scaling back efforts to seek out merchandise that reflects the diversity of U.S. consumers could put a company at risk, too, he said. Not only could companies face boycotts, but also they could miss out on fresher items and brands that help them stand apart from competitors.

    The companies standing firm

    Even as some retailers walk back diversity pledges, Sephora, Costco and E.l.f. Beauty, have doubled down on those efforts not as a feel-good move, but as a meaningful part of their business strategies.
    Sephora, a 15 Percent Pledge member which is owned by LVMH, has increased the percentage of Black-owned brands on its shelves from 3% in 2020 to about 10% as of 2025, said Artemis Patrick, CEO of Sephora North America. In its hair category, 15% of the brands are Black-owned.
    Sephora started Accelerate in 2016 with a focus on female founders. The six-month incubator helps mentor business owners, connects them to investors and gives them the opportunity to launch at Sephora.
    The retailer pivoted the program in 2020 to focus on Black and other minority founders to address “the need of the evolving consumer and where we truly did feel like we had an assortment gap,” Patrick said.
    So far, more than 33 Black- and minority-owned brands have gone through the incubator, she said.
    “Our business is really good and the fact that we’ve been really focused on diversifying our assortment, I think there’s a strong correlation,” she said.
    She added “it would be very strange in a beauty category to not be driving diversity in your assortment that meets the needs of your clients.”

    Customers shop at a Costco Wholesale store on Jan. 31, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. 
    Scott Olson  | Getty Images

    At Costco’s annual meeting last month, 98% of shareholders rejected a proposal that requested a report on the risk of Costco maintaining diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.
    In a proxy statement ahead of the meeting, the warehouse club’s board of directors said diversity benefits its business and helps it better serve a wide range of customers.
    “Among other things, a diverse group of employees helps bring originality and creativity to our merchandise offerings, promoting the ‘treasure hunt’ that our customers value,” it wrote.
    Costco’s board added that diversity across its suppliers “fosters creativity and innovation in the merchandise and services that we offer our members.”
    Tarang Amin, CEO of popular Gen Z makeup brand E.l.f. Beauty, called the company’s diversity “a key competitive advantage in terms of our results” in an interview with CNN earlier this month. He said the company’s employees are 74% women, 76% Gen Z and millennial and over 44% diverse and “reflect the community we serve.”

    The rise of 15 Percent Pledge

    Nearly five years ago, Aurora James challenged companies in an Instagram post to dedicate more of their shelf space to Black-owned businesses. That idea, which she proposed days after Floyd’s murder, started the 15 Percent Pledge.
    “So many of your businesses are built on Black spending power,” she wrote at the time. “So many of your stores are set up in Black communities. So many of your posts seen on Black feeds. This is the least you can do for us. We represent 15% of the population and we need to represent 15% of your shelf space.”
    Sephora was the first company to sign the pledge. About 22 companies are active participants in the pledge, including Macy’s and Nordstrom, according to the nonprofit. The 15 Percent Pledge has a directory of Black-owned brands on its website. It also awards grants to businesses and raises money to back Black-owned businesses through an annual gala, which drew celebrities, actors and business leaders including Kim Kardashian, Kelly Rowland and Jesse Williams earlier this month.
    Some of the changes inspired by the pledge are visible on shelves.
    Sephora has more than tripled the Black-owned brands on its shelves in the past five years. In the email to customers, it noted that number had spiked from eight to 30 since it took the Fifteen Percent Pledge in 2020.
    Those brands include makeup, shampoos and more backed by small entrepreneurs and celebrities, including Fenty Beauty by Rihanna, Pattern by Tracee Ellis Ross and Sienna Naturals, which was co-founded by Hannah Diop and actress Issa Rae.
    Nordstrom, which also signed on to the 15 Percent Pledge, has now added more Black-owned brands, too, including Buttah Skin, Briogeo and Honor the Gift.
    And Macy’s, another 15 Percent Pledge participant, has had an accelerator for over a decade which was launched to support underrepresented brand owners and founders. The Workshop, which started in 2011, offers grant funding and education for companies seeking to make it on retailers’ shelves and websites.
    James, who herself is a Black founder of a luxury brand called Brother Vellies, said she’s disheartened to see companies back away from supporting smaller Black- and minority-owned suppliers.
    “The idea is not about giving preferential treatment,” she said. “The idea is about making sure that we cast our net wide enough that we’re not just looking at the obvious channels.”
    By relying more on big conglomerates, retailers miss out on funding smaller U.S. business that create jobs and stimulate the local economy, she said.
    “In a time when I think small business all across America is suffering, to specifically target groups of founders and say, ‘You can’t get access or opportunity,’ just feels like a blow to all small businesses across America,” she said.
    She said the reversal of DEI by some companies show their commitments never ran deep.
    “Target never took the pledge. Walmart never took the pledge,” she said. “I don’t think that they were ever really that serious about what they were doing.”
    Not every company has stuck with the pledge. Gap did not renew with the group late last year — but said in a statement that it’s not backing away from DEI efforts. Over the past year, the company has gone through major changes as part of a turnaround led by Richard Dickson, its new CEO.
    In a statement, the denim and apparel retailer, which also includes Old Navy and Athleta, said the pledge looked different for the company because it sells and manufacturers its own brands. It said it “joined the pledge with the goal of increasing our diverse access and pipeline programs, and we met and exceeded that goal.”
    A Gap spokesman declined to share specific goals, but said they focused on recruiting talent from diverse backgrounds.
    This week, Gap rolled out a limited-time initiative to support Black businesses by selling shirts and hoodies from six Black designers from Harlem’s Fashion Row online and in select stores.

    Risks for Black founders

    Walmart and Target have downplayed concerns that they will start to carry fewer Black-owned brands. A Walmart spokesperson pointed to the company’s Supplier Inclusion Program, which focuses on adding products from smaller vendors. She said the company also works with banks and lenders to expedite payments for orders or connect suppliers to loans.
    Even as Target phases out DEI goals for Black-owned businesses, the discounter will keep offering Black-owned and minority-owned brands, a spokesman said. On its website, it’s promoting its collection of Black History Month items. He said Target will offer its Forward Founders program two times per year, which is designed for early-stage consumer packaged goods companies across categories including beauty, food and pets.
    When Target launched Forward Founders in 2021, the company said the program was “designed to help Black-owned businesses increase their potential for long-term success in retail.”
    Since last year, Target’s website has said the program is “evolving” — noting that founders no longer fill out an application for programs and Target will reach out to them if they’re “a strategic fit.” A spokesman said the company’s changes to its DEI initiatives do not affect its programs to boost founders, but did not offer more detail.
    Some Black founders have warned against boycotting Target and other retailers that have walked back DEI efforts, saying it could further hurt Black-owned businesses.
    In an Instagram post, social media personality, actress, and entrepreneur Tabitha Brown said “it’s definitely heartbreaking to feel unsupported.” But Brown, who has an active contract with Target, encouraged shoppers to use their dollars strategically when shopping Target’s shelves.
    She’s developed merchandise with Target, including a collection of clothing, swimwear and home decor. Target also carries Donna’s Recipe, a haircare brand she co-founded.
    “You can still go into those stores, if you choose to, and buy specific brands that you want to support. And let the other things not get your money,” she said.
    She said if sales of Black-owned brands fall, retailers will remove them from their shelves.
    “And then what happens to all the businesses who worked so hard to get where they are?” she said.

    Brandon Blackwood’s brand took off in 2020 when he made a tote labeled with three words instead of a logo: “End Systemic Racism.” The bag went viral.
    Photographed by Nico Daniels / Courtesy of Brandon Blackwood

    Handbag designer Brandon Blackwood said he worries that it will be harder for the next founder like him to get picked up by a major retailer.
    His brand took off in 2020 during the Black Lives Matter movement, after he made a tote decorated with three words instead of a logo: “End Systemic Racism.” The bag gained traction through social media.
    Yet he said major retailers that picked up handbags from his brand at the time, including Neiman Marcus, Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom, “helped put my product in front of a lot of people that wouldn’t necessarily have seen it.”
    “That really helped us and that really helped our brand awareness,” he said.
    If retailers drop supplier diversity initiatives, he said it will thin out choices for customers.
    For Brown Girl Jane, winning the confidence and business of major retailers — and particularly, Sephora — has been game changing, said Jones, the company’s co-founder and CEO. The brand got picked up first by Nordstrom in 2021. Now, Macy’s, Saks Fifth Avenue and Bloomingdale’s also sell its fragrances.
    Sephora is its the biggest wholesale deal so far: The beauty retailer carries some exclusive scents, including Carnivale, a fragrance that sells for $102 and blends together juicy mango, sandalwood and creamy vanilla.
    Jones said the company’s annual revenue is now in the $5 million to $7 million range. Roughly half of the company’s sales come from wholesale.
    She described getting picked up by Sephora last year as a “vote of confidence,” but said they’ve also been “the biggest champion and a true partner of the brand.”
    And she said that customers of all races desire her brand — and others from Black founders. About 40% of Brown Girl Jane’s customers are white, she said.
    By backing away from DEI, she said companies also send a message to their buyers that casting a wide net for new brands doesn’t matter.
    “It’s one thing to say ‘Ok, yeah. They [buyers] can still find who they find,'” she said. “But we know that without intentionality, a lot of these brands are just going to be overlooked.” More

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    CVS shares are up 45% this year — here’s why it may be starting to turn its business around

    CVS Health could be starting to turn itself around after a dismal 2024.
    Its shares are up more than 45% this year, outperforming pharmacy rival Walgreens and other insurers like UnitedHealth Group and Cigna.
    The company’s stock plummeted last year, largely due to higher-than-expected medical costs in its insurance unit that hurt its bottom line, but some analysts are more optimistic about the company’s ability to navigate that challenge moving forward.

    The CVS pharmacy logo is displayed on a sign above a CVS Health Corp. store in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Feb. 7, 2024.
    Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

    After a dismal 2024, CVS Health could be starting to turn itself around. 
    Some investors seem convinced, especially after the retail drugstore chain on Wednesday posted a big beat on fourth-quarter earnings and a 2025 profit outlook that was in line with expectations. 

    Shares of CVS are now up more than 45% for the year, unlike the company’s main retail pharmacy rival Walgreens, whose stock is up nearly 3%. Shares of other insurers UnitedHealth Group and Cigna are up about 4% and nearly 8%, respectively.
    The upbeat quarterly results may be a sign that brighter days are ahead for the CVS – or at least that things may not be as bad as they were last year. 
    The company’s stock plummeted more than 40% in 2024 after it missed earnings estimates for three straight quarters and withdrew its annual forecast, largely due to higher-than-expected medical costs in its insurance unit, along with other issues like pharmacy reimbursement pressure.
    CVS isn’t out of the woods yet. Medical costs were less severe during the fourth quarter but will likely remain elevated in 2025, as more seniors flock to hospitals and doctor’s offices and use more health-care benefits. 
    But some analysts are more optimistic about the company’s ability to navigate those challenges moving forward and reach its full-year 2025 adjusted earnings outlook of $5.75 to $6 per share. CVS has pursued store closures and other cost cuts, and its new CEO David Joyner has spent much of his first 100 days at the helm focusing on the company’s insurance unit Aetna. 

    “The pieces are in place for [CVS to return] from what has been a bottoming of operations performance,” said Leerink Partners analyst Michael Cherny, who upgraded the stock on Wednesday after the results. 
    Cantor Fitzgerald analysts on Wednesday also upgraded CVS’ stock, citing “increased confidence in a successful turnaround.” 

    Insurance business woes

    CVS has already taken steps to rightsize its insurance business, which includes plans for the Affordable Care Act, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid, as well as dental and vision. The company exited certain unprofitable health plans in 2024, and hiked premiums to enroll fewer members this year. 
    In a research note, Cantor Fitzgerald analysts said they are “incrementally more confident” that CVS will improve margins in its Medicare Advantage business and return to “normal levels” by 2027. 
    CVS has said it wants to get the Medicare Advantage business back to a 3% to 5% margin. They were in the negative 4.5% to 5% range at the end of 2024, CVS CFO Tom Cowhey said during an earnings call on Wednesday. 
    CVS and other insurers such as UnitedHealth Group and Humana have seen medical costs spike over the last year as more Medicare Advantage patients return to hospitals for procedures they delayed during the pandemic. 
    Medicare Advantage, a privately run health insurance plan contracted by Medicare, has long been a driver of growth and profits for insurers. But investors have become concerned about the runaway costs tied to those plans, which cover more than half of all Medicare beneficiaries. 
    To improve margins, the company plans to shrink Medicare Advantage membership by a “high single-digit percentage” from the end of 2024, executives said on Wednesday. Aetna had 4.4 million Medicare Advantage members as of December, up from 3.5 million the year before, according to the company’s fourth-quarter release.
    Overall, CVS executives said they expect to decrease insurance members by more than 1 million this year, including 800,000 in the individual market. Patients who lose insurance can enroll in a new Medicare Advantage plan or join traditional Medicare plans.
    Aetna also scored better Medicare Advantage star ratings for the 2025 payment year, which should boost its federal payments in 2026. Those crucial ratings help patients compare the quality of Medicare health and drug plans and determine how much an insurer receives in bonus payments from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.

    CVS Health Corp. acquired Hartford-based health insurer Aetna Inc. in 2018. 
    Brad Horrigan | Hartford Courant | Getty Images

    On the earnings call, Joyner said the company is pushing for higher payment rates from the government for Medicare Advantage. He said the proposed rates for 2026 don’t account for higher medical costs over the last year. 
    The Biden administration in January proposed to increase Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates by 2.2% in 2026, up from the 0.2% drop in rates for this year. But Cantor analysts also said they expect the Medicare Advantage reimbursement rate could rise, projecting a finalized increase of 2% to 2.8%.
    “We’re assuming an improving rate environment … maintaining STARS ratings, and [medical] costs trends that do not exceed 2024 levels,” the analysts wrote. 
    It is difficult to predict what medical costs trends across the insurance industry will look like in 2025. But higher medical costs are baked into CVS’s full-year guidance this time around. 
    The outlook assumes that the trends the company saw in 2024 will carry over into this year despite more favorable medical costs for the company in the fourth quarter, said Tanquilut. 
    “The early reads for ’25 or at least late ’24 is that it’s starting to get better. But they did not assume that improvement in the 2025 guidance,” Tanquilut told CNBC. “So it sounds like there’s upside to their numbers for 2025. 
    The company last year also said it would make significant changes to its Medicare Advantage plans for 2025, such as increasing copays and premiums and cutting back certain health benefits. That will eliminate the expenses tied to those benefits and drive away patients who need or want to use them.
    Other insurers such as Humana, the second largest Medicare Advantage insurer, are similarly culling their plan offerings for 2025 to reduce lower-profit membership. Humana is dropping a staggering 550,000 Medicare Advantage customers in less profitable markets. But the company has said that people who lose access to their existing plans will likely have another Humana Medicare Advantage plan option.

    CVS stock outperforms rivals

    The Walgreens store at 3646 N. Broadway in Chicago on Nov. 28, 2024. 
    Antonio James | Chicago Tribune | Tribune News Service | Getty Images

    Shares of CVS are outperforming most of its health-care rivals, both on the insurance and retail pharmacy sides. Jefferies analyst Brian Tanquilut said that is likely due to CVS’ unique position as a company that owns a health insurer, a retail drugstore chain and a pharmacy benefit manager, or PBM, called Caremark.
    “I think what they’re starting to show is the real synergy…in owning all three assets,” Tanquilut said. 
    PBMs such as Caremark sit at the center of the drug supply chain in the U.S., negotiating drug rebates with manufacturers on behalf of insurers, creating lists of preferred medications covered by health plans and reimbursing pharmacies for prescriptions. 
    That means Caremark also sits at the intersection of CVS’ retail pharmacy operation and its Aetna insurer, boosting the competitive advantage of both of the businesses.
    For example, Caremark in some cases directs drug prescriptions to CVS retail pharmacies. That has helped the company’s drugstores gain meaningful prescription market share over its chief rival, Walgreens, which has been struggling to operate as a largely standalone pharmacy business, Tanquilut said. 
    Other insurers, such as Cigna and UnitedHealth Group, also own PBMs. But the fact that CVS has a retail pharmacy “just pulls it all together and differentiates it from the others,” Tanquilut added. 
    That doesn’t necessarily mean that other insurers are underperforming. Tanquilut said UnitedHealthcare, the insurance arm of UnitedHealth Group, is still “best in class” in the industry. 
    Other insurance companies have their own hurdles apart from higher medical costs, such as Humana seeing a drop in its Medicare Advantage star ratings for the year. 
    But CVS’ story has been much more complicated than other insurers given its business model, and the company could now be reaching a point where “all three of its business segments are clicking,” said Tanquilut. More

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    As Trump eyes more tariffs, South Korea remains safe haven for GM and Hyundai

    As President Donald Trump threatens to further increase tariffs on U.S. trading partners, the greatest impact for the auto industry outside of North America would be additional levies to South Korea and Japan.
    The East Asia countries produced a combined 16.8% of vehicles sold last year in the U.S., including a record 8.6% from South Korea and 8.2% from Japan.
    Cars imported from South Korea currently have no tariffs, while those imported from Japan are subject to 2.5% duties. Truck imports for the countries are 25%.

    President Donald Trump welcomes South Korea’s President Moon Jae-In at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 22, 2018.
    Carlos Barria | Reuters

    DETROIT — As President Donald Trump threatens to further increase tariffs on U.S. trading partners, the greatest impact for the auto industry outside of North America would be additional levies on South Korea and Japan.
    The East Asian countries produced a combined 16.8% of vehicles sold last year in the U.S., including a record 8.6% from South Korea and 8.2% from Japan, according to data provided to CNBC by GlobalData.

    They were the largest vehicle importers to the U.S. outside of Mexico — and they have little to no duties compared with the 25% tariff Trump has threatened imposing on Canada and Mexico.
    Automakers such as General Motors and South Korea-based Hyundai Motor export vehicles tariff-free from South Korea. The country overtook Japan and Canada last year to become the second-largest exporter of new cars to the U.S., based on sales.
    It trails only Mexico, which represented 16.2% of U.S. auto sales in 2024, GlobalData reports.
    “Obviously Hyundai has a massive amount of exposure. Behind it is GM … with relatively large volume models,” said Jeff Schuster, global vice president of automotive research at GlobalData. “There’s a lot of risk potentially here, but it’s limited, really limited, to those two players.”

    Imports from Japan are currently subject to a 2.5% tariff for automakers such as Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor and Honda Motor. Vehicles from Japan represented about 1.31 million autos sold last year in the U.S.

    Japan’s percentage of sales has actually decreased in recent years, while South Korea’s exports and sales have continued to rise from less than 845,000 in 2019 to more than 1.37 million in 2024.
    South Korea has 0% tariffs on cars despite Trump renegotiating a trade deal with the country during his first term in 2018. That accord was touted for improving vehicle imports to South Korea, but it did little to address vehicle exports to the U.S.
    The deal also has done little for increasing automotive exports to South Korea, according to data from the International Trade Commission. U.S. passenger vehicle exports to South Korea have actually decreased by roughly 16%.
    Separate from cars, tariffs on trucks exported from South Korea and Japan to the U.S, as well as elsewhere, are 25%.
    A tariff is a tax on imports, or foreign goods, brought into the United States. The companies importing the goods pay the tariffs, and some experts fear the companies would simply pass any additional costs on to consumers — raising the cost of vehicles and potentially reducing demand.

    GM, Hyundai

    South Korea-based Hyundai is the largest exporter of vehicles to the U.S., followed by GM and then Kia Corp., a part of Hyundai that largely operates separately in the U.S.

    GM has notably increased its imports from South Korea in recent years. Its U.S. sales of South Korean-produced vehicles — largely entry-level models — have risen from 173,000 in 2019 to more than 407,000 last year, according to GlobalData.
    GM is the largest foreign direct investor in Korea’s manufacturing industry, according to the automaker’s website. It has invested 9 trillion South Korean won (roughly $6.2 billion) since establishing the operations in 2002.
    GM produces its Buick Encore GX and Buick Envista crossovers, as well as the Chevrolet Trailblazer and Chevrolet Trax crossovers, at plants in South Korea. The company has touted the vehicles as being a pinnacle for the automaker’s profitable growth in lower-margin, entry-level vehicles.

    2024 Chevrolet Trax (left) and 2024 Buick Envista
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    “We’re taking out costs of programs, improving profitability and creating vehicles that customers love, like the new Chevy Trax and the Buick Envista,” GM President Mark Reuss said during the company’s investor day in October. “Trax and Envista have helped raise our share of the U.S. small SUV market to its highest level since 2007.”
    Hyundai did not immediately respond when asked about potential tariffs on South Korea. GM and Kia declined to comment.
    Terence Lau, dean of the College of Law at Syracuse University who previously worked as a trade expert for Ford Motor, said the automotive industry is built on free trade. If tariffs are implemented, the industry can adjust, but it takes time.
    “The car industry can adjust to anything. Really, it can. It’s always going to make product that customers want to buy, because personal mobility and transportation is a human need all around the world,” he said. “What the car industry cannot do well is pivot on a dime.”
    Lau argued that a single-digit tariff can be a “nuisance,” but once they hit 10% or more, that’s when additional costs can really began eating into the margin or products.

    Tariff cherry-picking

    Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley last week argued that if Trump is going to implement tariffs affecting the automotive industry, it should take a “comprehensive” look at all countries to even the playing field in North America.
    Farley singled out Toyota and Hyundai for importing hundreds of thousands of vehicles annually from Japan and South Korea, respectively.

    Ford CEO Jim Farley poses for a photo at the launch of the all-new electric Ford F-150 Lightning pickup truck at the Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle Center on April 26, 2022 in Dearborn, Michigan.
    Bill Pugliano | Getty Images

    “There are millions of vehicles coming into our country that are not being applied to these [incremental tariffs],” Farley said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call with investors. “So if we’re going to have a tariff policy … it better be comprehensive for our industry.
    “We can’t just cherry-pick one place or the other because this is a bonanza for our import competitors.”
    The White House did not respond for comment on potential tariffs on South Korea.
    Trump on Thursday signed a presidential memorandum laying out his plan to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on foreign nations, but did not go into detail regarding what countries could be targeted.
    As a presidential candidate, Trump floated the possibility of imposing across-the-board tariffs on all U.S. imports. But he also advocated for Congress to pass what he called the “Trump Reciprocal Trade Act,” which would empower him to slap tariffs on the goods of any country that has higher tariffs on U.S.-made goods.
    — CNBC’s Kevin Breuninger contributed to this report.

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    Defence tech is blowing up Silicon Valley’s beliefs

    IN THE BACK of an unmarked office building close to LAX, the main airport of Los Angeles, stands a rack of unarmed hypersonic missiles the size of small drainpipes. On February 6th a camouflaged truck ferried one away to New Mexico for a test launch with the US Air Force. Such activity used to be common in El Segundo, the LA neighbourhood that was once a hub of military spaceflight. Then the cold war ended and with it much of the west-coast weapons business. Now it’s coming back. Castelion, which makes the projectiles, was founded in 2022 by three alumni of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket-and-satellite company, which was also created in El Segundo. More