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The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. will release the September nonfarm payrolls number, ending a shutdown-induced blackout on official jobs numbers.
The report is forecast to show a gain of 50,000 jobs in the public and private sectors, up from the initially reported 22,000 in August but still indicative of a soft labor market.
Because the numbers are from September, they will provide little help for policymakers trying to navigate a difficult landscape.
Job seekers speak with recruiters during the SacJobs Career job fair in Sacramento, California, US, on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday will release the September nonfarm payrolls number, ending a shutdown-induced blackout on official jobs data, albeit with a decidedly rear-window view.
Due at 8:30 a.m. ET, the release is forecast to show a gain of 50,000 jobs in the public and private sectors, up from the initially reported 22,000 in August but still indicative of a soft labor market.
Though the report will be backward-looking, it at least will provide some fodder for investors, economists and Federal Reserve officials who have had to rely on a host of private alternative data during the record-long shutdown in Washington, D.C. It will be the first BLS jobs report since the August release on Sept. 5.
“My sense is that the both the September report and the revisions for July and August will suggest a little bit brighter outlook than is commonly assumed, but not much to brag about,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “The labor market is holding in there, just like the economy.”
Coming a week after the government impasse ended, the data also is expected to show the unemployment rate at 4.3% while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.7% from a year ago, all numbers unchanged from August, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates.
Because the numbers are from September, they will provide only a little help for policymakers trying to navigate a difficult landscape and could be disregarded by markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently referred to the situation as “driving in the fog” and cautioned against looking at further interest rate cuts as guaranteed while officials look for direction.
While one month’s jobs report will help clear up some of the way, visibility will remain limited.
‘Pervasive uncertainty’
The BLS on Wednesday updated its release dates for the data points it produces.
The bureau will not release October’s jobs report separately, instead including it with the November report, which has been pushed to Dec. 16 from its original release date of Dec. 5. There will be no unemployment rate released for October due to household data that the BLS will not be able to collect. Similarly, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will see a combined September and October release on Dec. 9.
The BLS on Oct. 24 released September’s consumer price index report only because it is used as a benchmark for Social Security cost of living adjustments.
“The economy is muddling through a period of pervasive uncertainty,” Brusuelas said. “Because of the duration of the shutdown, I don’t think we’re going to get a clean reading until early February on where the labor market’s at.”
Nevertheless, other data, such as the private payrolls running tally from ADP along with layoff announcements from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas and a host of other indicators are providing some clues on where the labor market stands.
In fact, Fed Governor Christopher Waller in a speech Monday rejected the notion that the Fed doesn’t have enough data to make decisions.
“Policymakers and forecasters are not ‘flying blind’ or ‘in a fog,'” Waller said in a speech advocating a December rate cut. “While it is always nice to have more data, as economists, we are skilled at using whatever available data there is to formulate forecasts.”
Judging by data revealed so far, Goldman Sachs holds an above-consensus view of 80,000 jobs created in September but sees a decline of 50,000 in October, due largely to the expiration of the federal government’s deferred resignation program from cuts associated with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
“While we do not expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce an October unemployment rate, we estimate it likely would have increased, reflecting upward pressure from shutdown-related furloughs and increases in broader measures of labor market slack,” Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels said in a note.
In addition to the September headline number, Thursday’s report also will include revisions for July and August. Both Brusuelas and the Goldman economists said they expect those numbers to come in higher than the previous counts. More
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The BLS said October payroll data will be released along with a full report for November.
An unemployment rate for October will not be included in those figures because the data “could not be collected,” the BLS said, citing the shutdown.
Recruiters speak to job seekers at the Appalachian State University internship and job fair in Boone, North Carolina, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025.
Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday it will not release a full U.S. jobs report for the month of October, following the longest federal government shutdown in the history of the country.
Instead, the agency said October payroll data will be released along with a full report for November. An unemployment rate for October will not be included in those figures because the data “could not be collected,” the BLS said, citing the shutdown.
The agency also pushed back its November jobs data release to Dec. 16 from Dec. 5. The new date is six days after the Federal Reserve concludes its final policy meeting of the year — leaving the central bank with less information on the state of the economy. The delayed September nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled to be released on Thursday.
Without the full October data — and following recent hawkish commentary from some Fed officials — traders may be pricing in a lower chance of another rate reduction.
The CME Group’s FedWatch tool at midday Wednesday showed there’s a 63.8% chance that the Fed keeps its overnight benchmark rate steady in the 3.75%-4% range. That’s up from around 50% earlier in the day. More
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Trump rolled out the red carpet for Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler as he arrived in Washington for talks ranging from security to civil nuclear energy partnerships.
The leaders signed a defense cooperation pact and held discussions about the sale of American F-35 fighter jets to the kingdom.
The White House said Saudi Arabia had pledged to increase an already-promised $600 billion worth of investments in the U.S., to $1 trillion.
U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman during an arrival ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 18, 2025.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump trumpeted Saudi Arabia’s $1 trillion investment pledge in the States and the potential sale of American fighter jets to Riyadh, but experts say there are lingering doubts over whether such deals will materialize.
Trump rolled out the red carpet for Saudi’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as he arrived in Washington on Tuesday for talks ranging from security to civil nuclear energy partnerships. The leaders signed a defense cooperation pact and held discussions about the potential sale of American F-35 fighter jets to the kingdom.
The U.S. visit by Mohammed bin Salman (or MBS, as he’s widely known) was not without controversy as it was the first time he had visited the States since the killing of Saudi critic and journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
U.S. intelligence determined that the crown prince had approved the operation that led to Khashoggi’s death in a Saudi consulate in Istanbul, but Riyadh denied any involvement in the murder.
Undeterred by global outrage over the death of Khashoggi, and question marks over Saudi Arabia’s rehabilitation and invitation to the White House, Trump and MBS said they had “finalized a series of landmark agreements that deepen the U.S.-Saudi strategic partnership.”
Among them, the White House said in a statement, was Saudi’s pledge to increase the $600 billion worth of investments in the U.S. that it made in May, to $1 trillion. The White House said the bump reflected “deepening trust and momentum for the United States under President Trump’s leadership.”
No further detail was given as to a time-scale around that trillion-dollar investment, however.
US President Donald Trump meets with Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC on Nov. 18, 2025.
Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images
A $1 trillion investment is equal to Saudi Arabia’s annual economic output in 2023 (of $1.07 trillion) and economists questioned whether that level of investment would, or could, materialize any time soon.
“These sort of pledges have become regular features of the international landscape, even when, as in the case of the EU [and it’s pledged investment in the U.S. as part of a trade deal] there’s absolutely no enforcement mechanism available,” Paul Donovan, chief economist at GBS Global Wealth Management, noted Wednesday.
“To put the Saudi pledge in context, that is the equivalent of almost an entire year’s GDP [gross domestic product] for the kingdom. The pledge may not therefore be honored in the near term,” he cautioned.
F-35s
In addition to the investment pledges, Trump and MBS discussed the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, with the kingdom reportedly looking to buy as many as 48 of the stealth fighter jets in what would be a multibillion-dollar deal.
The president “approved a major defense sale package, including future F-35 deliveries, which strengthens the U.S. defense industrial base and ensures Saudi Arabia continues to buy American,” the White House said. But no details were given on the number of planes sold, or any timeframe for their supply.
Such a sale could prove controversial with U.S. lawmakers whose sympathies and allegiance has traditionally leant toward Israel, the U.S.’ main and longstanding ally in the Middle East.
Israel is currently the only country in the Middle East to have F-35s and any sale of such advanced stealth technology to Saudi Arabia could be seen as risky, having the potential to shift military and power dynamics in the fractious region. For its part, the IDF is reportedly unhappy at the prospect of F-35 deal with Saudi Arabia, warning that Israel’s air superiority in the region would be jeapardized.
Trump shrugged off those concerns, telling reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday that: “We’ll be selling F-35s,” although he alluded to Israel’s discontent, noting: “This [Saudi Arabia] is a great ally, and Israel is a great ally.”
“I know they’d like you to get planes of reduced calibre, but as far as I’m concerned, I think they are both at a level where they should get top of the line,” he added.
A U.S. Marine Corps F-35 fighter jet touches down at the former Roosevelt Roads military base in Ceiba, Puerto Rico, September 30, 2025.
Ricardo Arduengo | Reuters
Analysts say giving Saudi Arabia F-35s before it has signed the Abraham Accords thereby normalizing relations with Israel, would be a reward too far for Riyadh.
“Saudi Arabia is an important U.S. security partner, and increasing bilateral defense cooperation can further common interests and support efforts to build a regional security architecture that more effectively deters and defeats aggression,” Bradley Bowman, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in analysis.
“However, before providing Riyadh with the F-35, Washington should address concerns related to Riyadh’s relationship with China, follow the law regarding Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge, and demand that Saudi Arabia first normalize relations with Israel.”
‘Long road’ to supply
Lingering and deep-seated differences over a two-state solution could give the White House reasons to hesitate over the supply of F-35s to Saudi Arabia, analysts noted.
“It’s one thing to announce big deals. It’s one thing to announce that Saudi Arabia will be permitted to buy the F 35 this advanced stealth fighter, but it’s another thing to actually have planes touching down and taking off from Saudi runways,” Paul Musgrave, associate professor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told CNBC Wednesday.
“And between here and there, there’s a lot of details. And when you start to get into the details about who’s going to transfer what technology at what point, that’s where Congress — which is, I think fair to say, a little bit more friendly toward Israel than to towards Saudi Arabia — is going to have some input.”
“Now, that’s not to say that this deal is not going to go through because, of course, Israel also has suffered some reverses in its public standing, but there is going to be, I think probably, a decently long road between where we are and where we get to,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.” More
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