Finance

The discussion came as policymakers not only decided to leave their key overnight borrowing rate unchanged but also altered the post-meeting statement to indicate that no cuts would be coming until the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee held “greater confidence” that inflation was receding.
The meeting summary indicated a general sense of optimism that the Fed’s policy moves had succeeded in lowering the rate of inflation, which in mid-2022 hit its highest level in more than 40 years.
However, officials noted that they wanted to see more before starting to ease policy while saying that rate hikes are likely over. Members cited the “risks of moving too quickly” on cuts.

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials indicated at their last meeting that they were in no hurry to cut interest rates and expressed both optimism and caution on inflation, according to minutes from the session released Wednesday.
The discussion came as policymakers not only decided to leave their key overnight borrowing rate unchanged but also altered the post-meeting statement to indicate that no cuts would be coming until the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee held “greater confidence” that inflation was receding.

“Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving down sustainably to 2 percent,” the minutes stated.
The meeting summary did indicate a general sense of optimism that the Fed’s policy moves had succeeded in lowering the rate of inflation, which in mid-2022 hit its highest level in more than 40 years.
However, officials noted that they wanted to see more before starting to ease policy, while saying that rate hikes are likely over.
“In discussing the policy outlook, participants judged that the policy rate was likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” the minutes stated. But, “Participants generally noted that they did not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
Before the meeting, a string of reports showed that inflation, while still elevated, was moving back toward the Fed’s 2% target. While the minutes assessed the “solid progress” being made, the committee viewed some of that progress as “idiosyncratic” and possibly due to factors that won’t last.

Consequently, members said they will “carefully assess” incoming data to judge where inflation is heading over the longer term. Officials noted both upside and downside risks and worried about lowering rates too quickly.

Questions over how quickly to move

“Participants highlighted the uncertainty associated with how long a restrictive monetary policy stance would need to be maintained,” the summary said.
Officials “remained concerned that elevated inflation continued to harm households, especially those with limited means to absorb higher prices,” the minutes said. “While the inflation data had indicated significant disinflation in the second half of last year, participants observed that they would be carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation was moving down sustainably toward 2 percent.”
The minutes reflected an internal debate over how quickly the Fed will want to move considering the uncertainty about the outlook.
Since the Jan. 30-31 meeting, the cautionary approach has borne out as separate readings on consumer and producer prices showed inflation running hotter than expected and still well ahead of the Fed’s 2% 12-month target.
Multiple officials in recent weeks have indicated a patient approach toward loosening monetary policy. A stable economy, which grew at a 2.5% annualized pace in 2023, has encouraged FOMC members that the succession of 11 interest rate hikes implemented in 2022 and 2023 have not substantially hampered growth.
To the contrary, the U.S. labor market has continued to expand at a brisk pace, adding 353,000 nonfarm payroll positions in January. First-quarter economic data thus far is pointing to GDP growth of 2.9%, according to the Atlanta Fed.
Along with the discussion on rates, members also brought up the bond holdings on the Fed’s balance sheet. Since June 2022, the central bank has allowed more than $1.3 trillion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to roll off rather than reinvesting proceeds as usual.

‘Ample level of reserves’

The minutes indicated that a more in-depth discussion will take place at the March meeting. Policymakers also indicated at the January meeting that they are likely to take a go-slow approach on a process nicknamed “quantitative tightening.” The pertinent question is how high reserve holdings will need to be to satisfy banks’ needs. The Fed characterizes the current level as “ample.”
“Some participants remarked that, given the uncertainty surrounding estimates of the ample level of reserves, slowing the pace of runoff could help smooth the transition to that level of reserves or could allow the Committee to continue balance sheet runoff for longer,” the minutes said. “In addition, a few participants noted that the process of balance sheet runoff could continue for some time even after the Committee begins to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate.”
Fed officials consider current policy to be restrictive, so the big question going forward will be how much it will need to be relaxed both to support growth and control inflation.
There is some concern that growth continues to be too fast.
The consumer price index rose 3.1% on a 12-month basis in January – 3.9% when excluding food and energy, the latter of which posted a big decline during the month. So-called sticky CPI, which weighs toward housing and other prices that don’t fluctuate as much, rose 4.6%, according to the Atlanta Fed. Producer prices increased 0.3% on a monthly basis, well above Wall Street expectations.
In an interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes” that aired just a few days after the FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said, “With the economy strong like that, we feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully.” He added that he is looking for “more evidence that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%.”
Markets have since had to recalibrate their expectations for rate cuts.
Where traders in the fed funds futures market had been pricing in a near lock for a March cut, that has been pushed out to June. The expected level of cuts for the full year had been reduced to four from six. FOMC officials in December projected three.
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Capital One’s recently announced $35.3 billion acquisition of Discover Financial is a bid to protect itself against a rising tide of fintech and regulatory threats.
The deal, if approved, enables Capital One to leapfrog JPMorgan as the biggest credit card company by loans, and solidifies its position as the third largest by purchase volume.
But it’s Discover’s payments network — the “rails” that shuffle digital dollars between consumers and merchants, collecting tolls along the way — that is key to understanding this deal.

Capital One CEO and Chairman, Richard Fairbank.
Marvin Joseph| The Washington Post | Getty Images

Capital One’s recently announced $35.3 billion acquisition of Discover Financial isn’t just about getting bigger — gaining “scale” in Wall Street-speak — it’s a bid to protect itself against a rising tide of fintech and regulatory threats.
It’s a chess move by one of the savviest long-term thinkers in American finance, Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank. As a co-founder of a top 10 U.S. bank by assets, his tenure is a rarity in a banking world dominated by institutions like JPMorgan Chase that trace their origins to shortly after the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

Fairbank, who became a billionaire by building Capital One into a credit card giant since its 1994 IPO, is betting that buying rival card company Discover will better position the company for global payments’ murky future. The industry is a dynamic web where players of all stripes — from traditional banks to fintech players and tech giants — are all seeking to stake out a corner in a market worth trillions of dollars by eating into incumbents’ share amid the rapid growth of e-commerce and digital payments.
“This deal gives the company a stronger hand to battle other banks, fintechs and big tech companies,” said Sanjay Sakhrani, the veteran KBW retail finance analyst. “The more that they can separate themselves from the pack, the more they can future-proof themselves.”
The deal, if approved, enables Capital One to leapfrog JPMorgan as the biggest credit card company by loans, and solidifies its position as the third largest by purchase volume. It also adds heft to Capital One’s banking operations with $109 billion in total deposits from Discover’s digital bank and helps the combined entity shave $1.5 billion in expenses by 2027.

‘Holy Grail’

But it’s Discover’s payments network — the “rails” that shuffle digital dollars between consumers and merchants, collecting tolls along the way — that Fairbank repeatedly praised Tuesday when analysts queried him on the strategic merits of the deal. There are only four major card networks: giants Visa and Mastercard, then American Express and finally the smallest of the group, Discover.

Capital One and Discover credit cards arranged in Germantown, New York, US, on Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024. 
Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“That network is a very, very rare asset,” Fairbank said. “We have always had a belief that the Holy Grail is to be able to be an issuer with one’s own network so that one can deal directly with merchants.”

From the time of Capital One’s founding in the late 1980s, Fairbank said, he envisioned creating a global digital payments tech company by owning the payment rails and dealing directly with merchants. In the decades since, Capital One has been ahead of stodgier banks, gaining a reputation in tech circles for being forward-thinking and for its early adoption of cloud computing and agile software development.
But its growth has relied on Visa and Mastercard, which accounted for the vast majority of payment volumes last year, processing nearly $10 trillion in the U.S. between them.
Capital One intends to boost the Discover network, which carried $550 billion in transactions last year, by quickly switching all of its debit volume there, as well as a growing share of its credit card flows over time.
By 2027, the bank expects to add at least $175 billion in payments and 25 million of its cardholders onto the Discover network.

Owning the toll road

The true potential of the Discover deal, though, is what it allows Capital One to do in the future if it owns the toll road, according to analysts.
By creating an end-to-end ecosystem that is more of a closed loop between shoppers and merchants, it could fend off competition from rapidly mutating fintech players like Block and PayPal, as well as buy now, pay later firms like Affirm and Klarna, who have made inroads with both businesses and consumers.
Capital One aims to deepen relationships with merchants by showing them how to boost sales, helping them prevent fraud and providing data insights, Fairbank said Tuesday, all of which makes them harder to dislodge. It can use some of the network fees to create new loyalty plans, like debit rewards programs, or underwrite merchant incentives or experiences, according to analysts.
“Owning a network allows us to deal more directly with merchants rather than a network intermediary,” Fairbank told analysts. “We create more value for merchants, small businesses and consumers and capture the additional economics from vertical integration.”
It’s a capability that technology or fintech companies probably covet. The Discover network alone would be worth up to $6 billion if sold to Alphabet, Apple or Fiserv, Sakhrani wrote Tuesday in a research note.

Will regulators approve?

The Capital One-Discover combination could fortify the company against another potential threat — from Washington.
Proposed legislation from Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., aims to cap the fees charged by Visa and Mastercard, potentially blowing up the economics of credit card rewards programs. If that proposal becomes law, the competitive position of Discover’s network, which is exempt from the limitations, suddenly improves, according to Brian Graham, co-founder of advisory firm Klaros Group. That mirrors what an earlier law known as the Durbin amendment did for debit cards.

Chairman Dick Durbin (D-IL) speaks during a US Senate Judiciary Committee hearing regarding Supreme Court ethics reform, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on May 2, 2023.
Mandel Ngan | AFP | Getty Images

“There are a bunch of things aimed, in one way or another, at the card networks and that ecosystem,” Graham said. “Those pressures might be one of the things that creates an opportunity for Capital One in the future if they have control over this network.”
The biggest question for Capital One, its customers and investors is whether the merger will ultimately be approved by regulators. While Fairbank said he expects the deal to be closed in late 2024 or early 2025, industry experts said it was impossible to know whether it will be blocked by regulators, like a string of high-profile takeovers among banks, airlines and tech companies.
On Tuesday, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts urged regulators to swiftly block the deal, calling it “dangerous.” Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, said he would be watching the deal to “ensure that this merger doesn’t enrich shareholders and executives at the expense of consumers and small businesses.”
The Discover deal’s survival may hinge on whether it’s seen as boosting an also-ran payments network, or allowing an already-dominant card lender to level up in size — another reason Fairbank may have played up the importance of the network.
“Which thing you are more concerned about will define whether you think this is a good deal or a bad deal from a public policy point of view,” Graham said.
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HSBC pre-tax profit climbed about 78% to $30.3 billion in 2023 from a year earlier, but missed median estimates of $34.06 billion from analysts tracked by LSEG.
Chief Executive Noel Quinn also announced an additional share buyback of up to $2 billion to be completed by the bank’s next quarterly report.

Customers use automated teller machines (ATM) at an HSBC Holdings Plc bank branch at night in Hong Kong, China, on Saturday, Feb 16, 2019.
Anthony Kwan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

HSBC’s full-year 2023 pretax profit missed analysts’ estimates on Wednesday, hit by impairment costs linked to the lender’s stake in a Chinese bank, sinking its London-listed shares as much as 7%.
Europe’s largest bank by assets saw its pre-tax profit climb about 78% to a record $30.3 billion in 2023 from a year ago, according to its statement released Wednesday during the mid-day trading break in Hong Kong. That missed median estimates of $34.06 billion from analysts tracked by LSEG.

Chief Executive Noel Quinn also announced an additional share buyback of up to $2 billion to be completed ahead of the bank’s next quarterly earnings report. HSBC also said it would consider offering a special dividend of 21 cents per share in the first half of 2024 after it completes the sale of its Canada business.
With the highest full-year dividend per share since 2008 and three share buy-backs in 2023 totaling $7 billion, Quinn said the bank returned $19 billion to shareholders last year.
Quinn’s remuneration doubled to $10.6 million in 2023 from $5.6 million the year before, boosted in part by variable long-term incentives since his appointment in 2020.
HSBC suffered a “valuation adjustment” of $3 billion on its 19% stake in China’s Bank of Communications, Quinn said. In an interview with CNBC following the earnings release, he said this is “a technical accounting adjustment” and “not a reflection” on BoComm.
This write-down was among the items that plunged the bank’s fourth-quarter pretax profit by 80% to $1 billion from a year earlier.

HSBC’s Hong Kong shares reversed gains of about 1% after trading resumed, falling as much as 5%. The benchmark Hang Seng Index was up about 2%. Shares in London were down around 7% in early deals, set for their biggest one-day drop since 2020, according to Reuters.

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HSBC shares

Here are the other highlights of the bank’s full year 2023 financial report card:

Revenue for 2023 increased by 30% to $66.1 billion, compared with the median LSEG forecast for about $66 billion.
Net interest margin, a measure of lending profitability, was 1.66% — compared with 1.48% in 2022.
Common equity tier 1 ratio — which measures the bank’s capital in relation to its assets — was 14.8%, compared with 14.2% in 2022.
Basic earnings per share was $1.15, compared with the median LSEG forecast for $1.28 in 2023 and 75 cents for 2022.
Dividend per ordinary share was 61 cents — the highest since 2008 — compared with 32 cents in 2022.

Outlook 2024

HSBC, which has a second home in Hong Kong, said it was focusing on the fastest growing parts of Asia, a continent where the bank makes most of its profits.
In an earnings briefing to investors and analysts, the bank said it has completed the sale of its businesses in France, Oman, Greece and New Zealand, and was in the process of exiting Russia, Canada, Mauritius and Armenia.

The bank flagged two key macroeconomic trends: declining interest rates as inflation ebbs — a development that could eat into its interest income; and a continued reconfiguration of global supply chains and trade.
“International expansion remains a core strategy for corporates and institutions seeking to develop and expand, especially the mid-market corporates that HSBC is very well-positioned to serve. Rather than de-globalizing, we are seeing the world re-globalize, as supply chains change and intraregional trade flows increase,” Quinn said in the earnings statement.
The bank is targeting a mid-teens return on tangible equity for 2024, which was about 14.5% last year.
HSBC said it will be focusing on an expansion of non-interest income revenue sources via its wealth and transaction banking business. It is expecting banking non interest income of at least $41 billion in financial year 2024.
HSBC said it’s cautious about the loan growth outlook for the first half of 2024 amid economic uncertainty, expecting a mid-single digit annual percentage growth over the medium to long term. More

The Office for National Statistics noted that the country’s public finances usually run a surplus in January, unlike in other months, as receipts from self-assessed annual income tax payments come in.
Total government tax receipts came in at a record £90.8 billion, up £2.9 billion compared to January 2023.
The figures of Wednesday mark the final set of public finances data before Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt delivers his Spring Budget on March 6.

Jeremy Hunt, UK chancellor of the exchequer, holding the despatch box as he stands with treasury colleagues outside 11 Downing Street in London, UK..
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LONDON — The U.K. logged a record £16.7 billion ($21.1 billion) net budget surplus in January, according to official figures released on Wednesday.
The Office for National Statistics noted that the country’s public finances usually run a surplus in January, unlike during other months, as receipts from self-assessed annual income tax payments come in.

Combined self-assessed income and capital gains tax receipts totaled £33 billion in January, the ONS said, down £1.8 billion from the same period of last year.
Total government tax receipts came in at a record £90.8 billion, up £2.9 billion compared to January 2023.
Government borrowing during the financial year spanning to the end of January 2024 was £96.6 billion, £3.1 billion lower than over the same 10-month period a year ago and £9.2 billion lower than the £105.8 billion previously forecast by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility.

Public debt was estimated at around 96.5% of annual gross domestic product, up 1.8 percentage points from January 2023 and holding at levels last seen in the early 1960s, the ONS highlighted.
“We provided hundreds of billions to pay wages, support business and protect lives during Covid, and to pay half of people’s energy bills after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” the government’s chief secretary to the Treasury, Laura Trott, said in a statement.

“But we can’t leave future generations to pick up the tab, which is why we have taken tough decisions to help reduce borrowing versus what the OBR expected in March.”
The figures on Wednesday mark the final set of public finances data before Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt delivers his Spring Budget, which outlines the government’s fiscal policy for the year, on March 6.
With a general election due before the end of January 2025 and the main opposition Labour Party leading by more than 20 points in the polls, there has been much speculation about whether Hunt will try to find the headroom for tax cuts next month.

“With recent U.K. by-election results suggesting that the Labour party continues to have the advantage as we head towards the general election, Hunt will be under pressure to offer tax cuts,” said Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors.
“However, with his hands largely tied by the state of the nation’s finances, investors must be realistic about the prospects for the extent of this, or prepare for more savage cuts to the U.K.’s already under-strain public services.”
Despite the record January surplus, weaker-than-expected self-assessment receipts meant the figure was actually slightly below that forecast by the OBR in November.
However, Hunt will take solace in the downside revision to borrowing figures over the first 10 months of the financial year, according to Martin Mikloš, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
“While lower borrowing over the last ten months is welcome news, as the OBR prepares a new set of forecasts for the upcoming March Budget much more important will be the judgement they make on the outlook for growth and inflation,” Mikloš said.
“With public services under strain, pressures to offset some of the record-breaking tax rise seen since 2019, and the need for a credible plan to get debt on a falling path the Chancellor’s forthcoming Budget will not be an easy one to navigate.” More

Barclays on Tuesday reported a fourth-quarter net loss of £111 million ($139.8 million) as the British lender announced an extensive strategic overhaul.
On Tuesday, the bank announced a huge operational restructure, including substantial cost cuts, asset sales and a reorganization of its business divisions.
It promised to return £10 billion to shareholders between 2024 and 2026 through dividends and share buybacks.

LONDON – Nov. 5, 2020: Fog shrouds the Canary Wharf business district including global financial institutions Citigroup Inc., State Street Corp., Barclays Plc, HSBC Holdings Plc and the commercial office block No. 1 Canada Square.
Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Barclays on Tuesday reported a fourth-quarter net loss of £111 million ($139.8 million) as the British lender announced an extensive strategic overhaul, boosting its shares more than 5% in early trade.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected net profit attributable to shareholders of £60.95 million for the quarter, according to LSEG data, as Barclays embarks on a major restructuring program in a bid to reverse declining profits.

For the full year, net attributable profit came to £4.27 billion, down from £5.023 billion in 2022 and below a consensus forecast of £4.59 billion.
The bank also announced an additional share buyback of £1 billion, and will set out a new three-year plan designed to further improve operational and financial performance, CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan said in a statement.
Barclays took a £900 million hit in the fourth quarter from structural cost-cutting measures, which are expected to result in gross cost savings of around £500 million this year, with an expected payback period of less than two years.
Here are some other highlights:

Fourth-quarter group revenue was £5.6 billion, down 3% from the same period last year.
Credit impairment charges were £552 million, up from £498 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Common equity tier one (CET1) capital ratio, a measure of bank’s financial strength was 13.8%, down from 14% the previous quarter.
Full-year return on tangible equity (RoTE) was 10.6% excluding fourth-quarter restructuring costs. Fourth-quarter RoTE was 5.1%, down from 8.9% in the final quarter of 2022.
Quarterly total operating expenses were roughly unchanged year-on-year at £4 billion.

Momentum in Barclays’ traditionally strong corporate and investment bank (CIB) — particularly in its fixed income, currency and commodities trading division — waned in 2023, as market volatility moderated.

On Tuesday, the bank announced a huge operational overhaul, including substantial cost cuts, asset sales and a reorganization of its business divisions, while promising to return £10 billion to shareholders between 2024 and 2026 through dividends and share buybacks.
The business will now be divided into five operating divisions, separating the corporate and investment bank to form: Barclays U.K., Barclays U.K. Corporate Bank, Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management, Barclays Investment Bank and Barclays U.S. Consumer Bank.
“This resegmentation will provide an enhanced and more granular disclosure of the performance of each of these operating divisions, alongside more accountability from an operational and management standpoint,” the bank said in its report.
Barclays is targeting total gross cost savings of £2 billion and an RoTE of greater than 12% by 2026.
This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly. More

Less than two months of 2024 have passed, but the year has already been a pleasing one for stockmarket investors. The S&P 500 index of big American companies is up by 6%, and has passed 5,000 for the first time ever, driven by a surge in enthusiasm for tech giants, such as Meta and Nvidia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is tantalisingly close to passing its own record, set in 1989. The roaring start to the year has revived an old debate: should investors go all in on equities?A few bits of research are being discussed in financial circles. One was published in October by Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg and Michael O’Doherty, a trio of academics. They make the case for a portfolio of 100% equities, an approach that flies in the face of longstanding mainstream advice, which suggests a mixture of stocks and bonds is best for most investors. A portfolio solely made up of stocks (albeit half American and half global) is likely to beat a diversified approach, the authors argue—a finding based on data going back to 1890.Why stop there? Although the idea might sound absurd, the notion of ordinary investors levering up to buy assets is considered normal in the housing market. Some advocate a similar approach in the stockmarket. Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff, both at Yale University, have previously noted that young people stand to gain the most from the long-run compounding effect of capital growth, but have the least to invest. Thus, the duo has argued, youngsters should borrow in order to buy stocks, before deleveraging and diversifying later on in life.Leading the other side of the argument is Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management, a quantitative hedge fund. He agrees that a portfolio of stocks has a higher expected return than one of stocks and bonds. But he argues that it might not have a higher return based on risk taken. For investors able to use leverage, Mr Asness argues it is better to choose a portfolio with the best balance of risk and reward, and then to borrow to invest in more of it. He has previously argued that this strategy can achieve a higher return than a portfolio entirely made up entirely of equities, with the same volatility. Even for those who cannot easily borrow, a 100% equity allocation might not offer the best return based on how much risk investors want to take.The problem when deciding between a 60%, 100% or even 200% equity allocation is that the history of financial markets is too short. Arguments on both sides rely—either explicitly or otherwise—on a judgment about how stocks and other assets perform over the very long run. And most of the research which finds that stocks outperform other options refers to their track record since the late 19th century (as is the case in the work by Ms Anarkulova and Messrs Cederburg and O’Doherty) or even the early 20th century.Although that may sound like a long time, it is an unsatisfyingly thin amount of data for a young investor thinking about how to invest for the rest of their working life, a period of perhaps half a century. To address this problem, most investigations use rolling periods that overlap with one another in order to create hundreds or thousands of data points. But because they overlap, the data are not statistically independent, reducing their value if employed for forecasts.Moreover, when researchers take an even longer-term view, the picture can look different. Analysis published in November by Edward McQuarrie of Santa Clara University looks at data on stocks and bonds dating back to the late 18th century. It finds that stocks did not consistently outperform bonds between 1792 and 1941. Indeed, there were decades where bonds outperformed stocks.The notion of using data from such a distant era to inform investment decisions today might seem slightly ridiculous. After all, finance has changed immeasurably since 1941, not to mention since 1792. Yet by 2074 finance will almost certainly look wildly different to the recent era of rampant stockmarket outperformance. As well as measurable risk, investors must contend with unknowable uncertainty.Advocates for diversification find life difficult when stocks are in the middle of a rally, since a cautious approach can appear timid. However financial history—both the lack of recent evidence on relative returns and glimpses at what went on in earlier periods—provides plenty of reason for them to stand firm. At the very least, advocates for a 100% equity allocation cannot rely on appeals to what happens in the long run: it simply is not long enough. ■ More

Americans shopping online after midnight are often making riskier transactions and are more likely to default on their loans, according to Affirm Chief Financial Officer Michael Linford.
“Human beings don’t make the best decisions at two o’clock in the morning,” Linford said. “It’s clear as day — credit delinquencies spike right around 2 a.m.”
Last week, Affirm reported that 30-day delinquencies on monthly loans held steady from a year earlier at 2.4%, even as total purchase volumes surged 32% during that time.

A young man holds a credit card and uses a laptop for online shopping.
Diy13 | Istock | Getty Images

Americans shopping online after midnight often make riskier transactions and are more likely to default on their loans, according to Affirm Chief Financial Officer Michael Linford.
The fintech firm uses the hour a consumer attempts a transaction as a key data point to help determine whether to approve loans, Linford told CNBC in a recent interview. Other factors include a user’s repayment history with Affirm and transaction data from credit bureau Experian.

“Local time of day is a signal that we use in underwriting, and most times of day have the same credit risk,” Linford said. Between midnight and 4 a.m., however, something changes, he said.
“Human beings don’t make the best decisions at two o’clock in the morning,” Linford said. “It’s clear as day — credit delinquencies spike right around 2 a.m.”
While the data is clear that late-night financial decisions are riskier, the reasons for it are less so. Shoppers could be inebriated or under financial or emotional duress and desperately seeking credit, Linford said.
Affirm, run by PayPal co-founder Max Levchin, is among a new breed of fintech lenders competing with credit cards issued by banks. The buy now, pay later industry offers installment loans that typically range from no-interest short-term transactions to rates as high as 36% for longer-term credit.

Real-time approvals

Firms including Affirm, Klarna and Sezzle have embedded their services in the online checkout pages of retailers.

A key to their business model is the ability to approve or reject customers in real time and at the transaction level, using data to help judge the odds of being repaid.
“We don’t need to know if you’re going to be employed in two years,” Linford said. “We need to know whether you’re going to be able to pay back the $700 purchase you’re making right now. That is very different from credit cards, where they give you a line and say, ‘Godspeed.'”
The use of buy now, pay later loans has grown along with the overall rise in consumer debt. While the industry touts up-front rates and fewer fees compared to credit cards, critics have said they enable users to overspend.
But Affirm manages repayment risk by either denying transactions or offering shorter-term loans that require down payments, Linford said. Last week, Affirm reported that 30-day delinquencies on monthly loans held steady at 2.4% during the last three months of 2023 from a year earlier, even as total purchase volumes surged 32% in that time.
Affirm has little incentive to allow users to pile up debts, according to the CFO.
“If you can’t pay us back, we’ve lost, unlike with credit cards,” Linford said. “We don’t charge late fees. We don’t revolve, we don’t compound.”

Arrows pointing outwards

The rates at Affirm are in contrast to credit card delinquencies at the four biggest U.S. banks, which have been climbing since 2021 as loan balances have grown. Americans owed $1.13 trillion on credit cards as of the fourth quarter of last year, a $50 billion increase from the previous quarter amid higher interest rates and persistent inflation, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report.
“The job environment is good, so it begs the question, why are credit card delinquencies creeping up?” Linford said. “The answer is, they took their eye off of underwriting and from my perspective, they got aggressive in a time when consumers were beginning to show stress.”Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

Wells Fargo said Thursday one of its primary regulators lifted a key penalty from its 2016 fake accounts scandal.
The bank said in a release that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency terminated a consent order that forced it to revamp how it sells its retail products and services.
Eight consent orders remain, including one from the Federal Reserve that caps the bank’s asset size, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.

Wells Fargo President and CEO Charlie Scharf attends The Future of Everything presented by The Wall Street Journal at Spring Studios in New York City, on May 17, 2022.
Steven Ferdman | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Wells Fargo said Thursday one of its primary regulators has lifted a key penalty tied to its 2016 fake accounts scandal.
The bank said in a release that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency terminated a consent order that forced it to revamp how it sells its retail products and services.

Shares of the bank jumped more than 6% on the news.
Wells Fargo, one of the country’s largest retail banks, has retired six consent orders since 2019, the year CEO Charlie Scharf took over. Eight more remain, most notably one from the Federal Reserve that caps the bank’s asset size, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
In a memo sent to employees, Scharf called the development a “milestone” for the lender. The 2016 fake accounts scandal — in which the bank admitted to putting customers into more than 3 million unauthorized accounts — unleashed a wave of scrutiny that revealed problems related to the servicing of mortgages, auto loans and other consumer accounts.
The attention tarnished the bank’s reputation and forced the retirement of both ex-CEO John Stumpf in 2016 and successor Tim Sloan in 2019.”The OCC’s action is confirmation that we have effectively put in place new systems, processes, and controls to serve our customers differently today than we did a decade ago,” Scharf said. “It is our responsibility to ensure we continue to operate with these disciplines.”
The termination of the OCC order “paves the way” for the Fed asset cap to ultimately be removed, RBC analyst Gerard Cassidy said Thursday in a research note.

— CNBC’s Leslie Picker contributed to this report.
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