Finance

Over six months from 2014 to 2015, the Chinese stock market doubled in value, while leverage climbed, Aaron Costello, regional head for Asia at Cambridge Associates, pointed out Monday.
This time around, the market hasn’t run up as much, while leverage is lower, he said. “We’re not in the danger zone yet.”
What’s less clear is whether economic growth will pick up enough to support a sustainable market rally.

A customer watches stock market at a stock exchange in Hangzhou, China, on September 27, 2024. 
Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — The rocket higher in Chinese stocks so far looks different from the market bubble in 2015, analysts said.
Major mainland China stock indexes surged by more than 8% Monday, extending a winning streak on the back of stimulus hopes. Trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges hit 2.59 trillion yuan ($368.78 billion), surpassing a high of 2.37 trillion yuan on May 28, 2015, according to Wind Information.

Over six months from 2014 to 2015, the Chinese stock market doubled in value, while leverage climbed, Aaron Costello, regional head for Asia at Cambridge Associates, pointed out Monday.
This time around, the market hasn’t run up as much, while leverage is lower, he said. “We’re not in the danger zone yet.”
Stock market leverage by percentage and value were far higher in 2015 than data for Monday showed, according to Wind Information.

The Shanghai Composite in June 2015 soared past 5,100 points, a level it has never regained since a market plunge later that summer. MSCI that year delayed adding the mainland Chinese stocks to its globally tracked emerging markets index. Also hitting sentiment was Beijing’s back-and-forth on a crackdown on trading with borrowed funds and a surprise devaluation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar.
This year, the yuan is trading stronger against the greenback, while foreign institutional allocation to Chinese stocks has fallen to multi-year lows.

The Shanghai Composite closed at 3,336.5 on Monday, before mainland exchanges closed for a week-long holiday commemorating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. Trading is set to resume on Oct. 8.
In the runup to the 2015 market rally, Chinese state media had encouraged stock market investment, while loose rules allowed people to buy stocks with borrowed funds. Beijing has long sought to build up its domestic stock market, which at roughly 30 years old is far younger than that of the U.S.

Strong policy signals

The latest market gains follow announcements in the last week of economic support and programs to encourage institutions to put more money into stocks. The news helped stocks rebound from roughly their lowest levels of the year. The CSI 300 rallied by nearly 16% in its best week since 2008.
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday led a high-level meeting that called for halting the real estate market’s decline as well as strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China last week also cut interest rates and the amount existing mortgage holders need to pay.
“The policy is much stronger and [more] concerted this time than 2015. That said, the economy faces greater headwind[s] right now compared to back then,” said Zhu Ning, author of “China’s Guaranteed Bubble.”
One week of massive stock gains do not mean the economy is on its way to a similar recovery.
The CSI 300 remains more than 30% below its February 2021 high, a level that had even surpassed the index’s 2015 high.
“The Japanese experience provides an important perspective, as the Nikkei 225 Index bounced four times by an average of 34 per cent on its way to a 66 per cent cumulative drop from December 1989 to September 1998,” Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, pointed out Tuesday in a blog post that was also published in the Financial Times opinion section.
Economic data for the last few months have pointed to slower growth in retail sales and manufacturing. That raised concerns that China’s gross domestic product would not reach the full-year target of around 5% without additional stimulus.
“I think what’s missing is the key to a lot of this, that has not come out, which would be a truly confidence-boosting measure, is how are they going to fix the local government finances,” Costello said, noting local coffers once relied on land sales for revenue to spend on public services.
While Chinese authorities have cut interest rates and eased some home buying restrictions, the Ministry of Finance has yet to announce additional debt issuance to support growth.

Animal spirits at play

Peter Alexander, founder and managing director of Z-Ben Advisors, expects the level of fiscal stimulus — when it’s likely announced in late October — to be less than what markets are hoping for.
It “may have investors a little bit over their skis, as people like to say,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”
He added in a written response that his experiences in 2007 and 2015 indicate the Chinese stock market rally could last for another three to six months, or abruptly end.
“This is pure animal instincts and the Chinese have been pent up for a stock market rally,” Alexander said. He added that there are market risks from how unprepared the stock trading system was for the surge of buying.
Data on the number of new retail investors in China this year wasn’t publicly available. Reports indicate brokerages have been overwhelmed with new requests, echoing how individuals piled into the stock market nearly a decade earlier. The Shanghai Stock Exchange on Friday said confirming transactions at the market open had been abnormally slow.

Looking for earnings growth

“China was cheap and was missing the catalyst. … The catalyst has occurred to unlock the value,” Costello said.
“Fundamentally we need to see corporate earnings go up,” he said. “If that doesn’t go up, this is all a short-term pop.”
Beijing’s efforts earlier this year to stem a market rout included changing the head of the securities regulator. Stocks climbed, only to see the rally peter out in May.
A factor that can send stocks past May levels is that earnings per share forecasts have stabilized versus downgrades earlier this year, James Wang, head of China strategy at UBS Investment Bank Research, said in a note Monday.
Lower U.S. interest rates, a stronger Chinese yuan, increased share buybacks and more coordinated policymaker response also support gains, he said. Wang’s latest price target of $70 on the MSCI China index is now just a few cents above where it closed Monday.
— CNBC’s Hui Jie Lim contributed to this report. More

A shareholder at a securities hall in Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang province in east China, on Sept. 24, 2024.
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

China stocks rallied Monday to their best day in 16 years, with related U.S. ETFs also rising after recent economic stimulus buoyed investor optimism in the market.
The Shanghai Composite Index surged 8.06% in its best day since September 2008, and capping a nine-day win streak for the index. It ended September up 17.39%, its first monthly gain in five and its best monthly performance going back to April 2015.

The Shenzhen Composite Index closed up 10.9%, its best day since April 1996. It gained 24.8% in September, its best month going back to April 2007.
The China ADR index closed up 1.2%. It climbed nearly 6% earlier in the day.
The U.S.-listed shares of online video company Bilibili and brokerage company Futu Holdings rose slightly.

Stock chart icon

China ADR Index

The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) gained 0.6%.
Chinese stocks have been on a tear after Beijing last week unveiled a slew of economic stimulus measures including interest rate cuts to support the weak property market. On Thursday, state media said Chinese President Xi Jinping and other top leaders affirmed the measures.

“While we don’t know for sure if there’s going to be enough to really kick the economy back into gear, it’s certainly the right first step,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. “I think the impact of a strengthening China can’t be underestimated.”
“On balance, this is going to be an ambiguous positive for markets going forward,” he added. “And I think that there’s a lot of investors are going to have to quickly recalibrate their expectations.”
More U.S. investors are bullish on the market following the move. Last week, billionaire hedge fund founder David Tepper said he is overwhelmingly bullish on Chinese equities, having bought “everything” related to China following the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut.
— CNBC’s Gina Francolla, Nick Wells, Lim Hui Jie and Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.
Correction: Art Hogan is chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. A previous version misstated his firm.

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CANADA AND America’s economies are joined at the hip. Some $2bn of trade and 400,000 people cross their 9,000km of shared border every day. Canadians on the west coast do more day trips to nearby Seattle than to distant Toronto. No wonder, then, that the two economies have largely moved in lockstep in recent decades: between 2009 and 2019 America’s GDP grew by 27%; Canada’s expanded by 25%. More

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak Monday to the National Association for Business Economists during the organization’s annual conference in Nashville.

The central bank chair is delivering his assessment on the economy as well as his policy views.
Following the speech, Powell will speak in a moderated discussion with Ellen Zentner, global head of thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
The speech comes less than two weeks after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee approved a half-percentage-point reduction in its key overnight borrowing rate, the first rate reduction in more than four years. Markets expect the Fed to follow up with additional cuts this year and in 2025 depending on the path of the economic data.
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The Inflation Reduction Act created two consumer rebate programs tied to energy efficiency.
They’re respectively worth up to $8,000 and $14,000 for consumers, depending on criteria like income and specific efficiency-related upgrades or purchases.
Arizona, Maine, New York, New Mexico, Rhode Island and Wisconsin started rolling out their rebate programs. Many others have applied. South Dakota has declined to participate.

Owngarden | Moment | Getty Images

A handful of states have rolled out rebates to consumers who make their homes more energy-efficient, just months after New York became the first state to do so, in May.
Meanwhile, South Dakota officials in August declined the federal funding, which is tied to two new programs created by the Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark climate law enacted in 2022.

The IRA earmarked $8.8 billion for consumers via two Home Energy Rebates programs.
Consumers can access up to $8,000 of Home Efficiency Rebates, and up to $14,000 of Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates.
More from Personal Finance:Take a look inside a $1.1 million ‘zero emissions’ homeHow EVs and gasoline cars compare on total costHow to buy renewable energy from your electric utility
Together, the two rebate programs aim to defray — or in some cases fully offset — the cost of retrofitting homes and upgrading appliances to be more energy-efficient. Such tweaks can help consumers cut their utility bills while also reducing planet-warming carbon emissions, officials said.
The two programs have varying rules that determine which consumers are eligible and how much money they can access. In some cases, rebates will depend on household income and a home’s overall energy reduction.

Nearly every state has indicated it will launch a rebate program for residents, according to a U.S. Department of Energy spokesperson.
State officials had an August deadline to officially decline the federal funds. They have a Jan. 31, 2025 deadline to submit a program application to the DOE.
South Dakota is the only state so far to have signaled publicly that it won’t administer the rebates.
“With good faith, we did look into this,” Jim Terwilliger, commissioner of the South Dakota Bureau of Finance and Management, said during a July 30 appropriations hearing. “We just don’t believe that it’s the right thing for South Dakota.”

Here are the states that have applied

States, which administer the federal funds, have some leeway relative to program design. They must apply for funding and can distribute rebates to consumers after their application is approved.
New York launched the first phase of its rebates May 30.
Five others — Arizona, Maine, New Mexico, Rhode Island and Wisconsin — have since launched rebate programs, too, according to U.S. Department of Energy data as of Sept. 24.
“I’m expecting more and more to roll out,” said Kara Saul-Rinaldi, president and CEO of AnnDyl Policy Group, a consulting firm focused on climate and energy policy.

Many more states, as well as Washington, D.C., have submitted applications or had them approved, according to DOE data: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
Together, these 26 states plus the District of Columbia have applied for $4 billion in total funding so far, the DOE said.
The rebates are a new program, and “complex government programs like these take time and coordination to set up,” according to a DOE spokesperson.
“The Inflation Reduction Act put states in charge of designing and implementing Home Energy Rebate programs that fit their local needs,” the spokesperson wrote in an e-mail. “As each state has different resources and capabilities, each state’s timeline will be different.”  

South Dakota is not participating

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem at the Republican National Convention on July 15, 2024.
Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images

However, South Dakota officials in August signaled they wouldn’t participate, the lone state so far to decline the federal rebate funding.
“South Dakota will have no part in facilitating the Green New Deal,” Ian Fury, a spokesperson for Gov. Kristi Noem, a Republican, said in an e-mailed statement.
States had an Aug. 16, 2024 deadline to officially decline the funds.
“We don’t think the administrative burden and the expense of administering a program like that is the appropriate thing to do, and we generally disagree with the policy,” Terwilliger, of the South Dakota Bureau of Finance and Management, said in a July hearing.
The Inflation Reduction Act allows states to use up to 20% of its funding for administrative purposes.
Fifty-one states and territories have applied to DOE for early administrative funding, the agency said.
The $68.6 million of federal money that had been set aside for South Dakota rebates will be redistributed among participating states.

Fury also noted this isn’t the first time South Dakota has rejected federal spending. It was the only state to reject extended unemployment benefits in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic, Fury said.
The Green New Deal is a climate-change policy initiative supported by congressional Democrats starting around 2019. Bipartisan legislation to create an energy rebate program had existed almost a decade earlier, like the Home Star Energy Retrofit Act in 2010.
The concept of consumer rebates tied to energy efficiency “predates the Green New Deal by many years,” said Saul-Rinaldi.

Florida reverses course

It appears Florida officials reversed course from their original stance on the rebates.
Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2023 had vetoed the state’s authority to spend about $5 million of federal funds to administer the energy rebate program. At the time, a spokesperson for the state’s Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services told CNBC that Florida wouldn’t be applying for the rebates as a result.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at the Republican National Convention on July 16, 2024.
Robert Gauthier | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

Now, Florida is preparing for a soft launch of the rebate programs in late 2024 and a full launch in early 2025, according to information on a state website.
A spokesperson for the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services didn’t return a request for comment on the change in position.

‘Every state is approaching [its program] differently’

At a high level, consumers will be able to get the rebates at the point of sale, when they buy an appliance directly from a retailer or from a qualified contractor who’s helping a household complete an efficiency project.
“Every state is approaching [its program] differently, for many reasons,” Saul-Rinaldi said.
Many are rolling them out in phases. For example, New Mexico is starting by offering a $1,600 rebate for low-income consumers in single-family homes who buy insulation from a participating retailer.
Similar to other states, qualifying New Mexico residents will be able to later access additional rebates such as:

$8,000 for an ENERGY STAR-certified electric heat pump for space heating and cooling;
$4,000 for an electrical panel;
$2,500 for electrical wiring;
$1,750 for an ENERGY STAR-certified electric heat pump water heater;
$1,600 for air sealing; and
$840 for an ENERGY STAR-certified electric heat pump clothes dryer and/or an electric stove.

Consumers and contractors should consult their state energy department website to learn more about their specific programs and eligibility, Saul-Rinaldi said.
The U.S. Energy Department suggests households don’t wait to accomplish necessary home energy upgrades or projects if their state hasn’t formally rolled out rebates. They may be eligible for other federal programs, “including tax credits, the Weatherization Assistance Program, and other state, local, and utility programs,” the agency said. More

Chinese President Xi Jinping said Monday that no challenges can stop the country from moving forward.
He also reiterated Beijing’s aims for reunification with Taiwan.
Xi was speaking at a reception commemorating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, which was founded on Oct.1, 1949.

China’s President Xi Jinping speaks during an awards ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sept. 29, 2024, ahead of China’s National Day.
Adek Berry | Afp | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping said Monday that no challenges can stop the country from moving forward and reiterated Beijing’s reunification aims with Taiwan.
He was speaking at a reception commemorating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, which was founded on Oct.1, 1949.

“The path ahead will definitely see challenges,” Xi said, before calling on the country to overcome uncertainties and risks. “No challenges can stop China’s progress.”
The comments were translated by CNBC from a Chinese state media broadcast.
The brief speech, aired during the state broadcaster’s daily evening news program, noted that Xi and other top Chinese leaders entered the reception shortly after 5 p.m. local time on Monday. More

Blockchain technology and tokenization could challenge the traditional ETF model.
Janus Henderson said recently that it’s partnering with Anemoy Limited and Centrifuge to create Anemoy’s Liquid Treasury Fund (LTF), an on-chain technology-based fund that will give investors direct access to short-term U.S. Treasury bills.

“It’s not necessarily a threat to the ETF industry,” Nick Cherney, Janus Henderson’s head of innovation, said on CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “I think it’s more of a natural evolution of how we try to get the way in which we deliver investment services to clients to be more efficient and less costly.”
“We want to be early in that opportunity,” he said.
This is Janus Henderson’s first tokenized fund, according to a news release by the firm.
Cherney notes it would have all the traditional features of an ETF. But investors could buy and sell it on a blockchain-based platform — with the end investor having exposure to “instantaneous 24/7 trading, instantaneous settlement, total transparency over fund holding, so even beyond what ETFs provide.”
He acknowledged it could irreversibly change the way business gets done for some.

“I think there are certainly people in the ecosystem for whom it’s potentially threatening, but you see those players getting involved,” Cherney added.

’24/7 trading makes me nervous’

Strategas Securities’ Todd Sohn is concerned about the risks associated with constant trading availability.
“24/7 trading makes me nervous. That’s the one part where I’d want to be a little bit careful depending on who is using this,” the firm’s ETF and technical strategist said.

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TWO GUT instincts have distinguished the macroeconomic policies of Xi Jinping, China’s ruler since 2012. He has disdained consumer handouts, which he thinks breed laziness. And he has refrained from bold economic stimulus, the kind of fiscal and monetary “bazooka” that China’s previous leaders fired in November 2008 during the global financial crisis. Both of Mr Xi’s convictions have been tested by China’s economic woes over the past year. And this week, shortly before the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, he appears to have set his qualms aside, permitting China’s most attention-grabbing stimulus since 2008. Chinese stocks posted their best week in 16 years; Hong Kong’s surged at a pace unseen since 1998. Some analysts have even used the b-word. More