Finance

Gold prices have soared over the past year.
However, investors should be cautious, experts said. One advisor suggests thinking of the Warren Buffett rule: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
Gold should only be a small sliver, perhaps 1% or 2% or less of a well-diversified portfolio, experts say.

An attendant holds 1-kilogram gold bars on Feb. 17, 2025.
Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Gold prices are popping. But investors should avoid the temptation to chase a shiny object, investment experts said.
The SPDR Gold Shares fund (GLD), which tracks the price of gold bullion, is up about 11% in 2025 as of 2 p.m. ET Tuesday. Returns are up about 42% over the past year. (Prices were down more than 1% on Tuesday.)

Gold futures prices are also up about 10% year-to-date and currently 36% higher compared to the price a year ago. 
By comparison, the S&P 500 U.S. stock index is up about 1.5% in 2025 and 17% in the past year.
Lee Baker, a certified financial planner, said he wasn’t getting client calls about gold a year ago. Now, he fields them regularly.
He thinks investors would be wise to remember the classic rule from Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

“It feels to me everyone is starting to get greedy as it pertains to gold,” said Baker, owner and president of Claris Financial Advisors, based in Atlanta, and a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

The typical investor shouldn’t have an allocation to gold that exceeds 3% of a diversified portfolio, Baker said.
Investors enticed by lofty returns may make a knee-jerk reaction and buy a big chunk of gold (literally or figuratively) — and, in the process, make the common investment mistake of buying high and selling low, he said.
“If you’re going to make money with gold you need to buy and sell it — and hopefully sell it at right time,” Baker said. “And if you’re getting in now, are you buying at a peak? I don’t know.”

Why gold prices are up

Investors often perceive gold as a safe haven in times of turmoil and buy the asset when there are high levels of uncertainty, explained Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist and head of global equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“I think we can check that box right now,” he said.
That said, “in true times of crisis, bonds have shone brighter than gold has,” Samana said.
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Additionally, many investors buy gold because they think it’s a good inflation hedge, Samana said. (The data doesn’t always support that investment thesis.) Investors have been concerned by recent data that suggests progress on bringing down inflation may have stalled, he said.
U.S. sanctions on Russia dating to 2022 have been the “turbocharger” for gold returns over the past year or more, Samana said.

The sanctions led some central banks — in China, most notably — to buy more gold instead of U.S. Treasury bonds to avoid the potential difficulty of accessing assets denominated in U.S. dollars during a future geopolitical conflict, Samana said.
That has driven up gold demand higher compared to the price a year ago — and prices with it, he said.
“Don’t chase” gold returns, Samana said: “As a whole, you probably want to hold off on precious metals at [current] levels.”
Experts don’t expect gold to continue to shine.
“There’s no reason in my mind gold will continue to have a significant uptrend, barring — and I certainly hope not — some sort of protracted war,” Baker said.

How to invest in gold

Sanshandao Gold mine in Laizhou, Shandong province, China, on Jan. 17, 2025. 
CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Baker recommends getting investment exposure to gold via a fund like an exchange-traded fund or by investing in the stocks of gold mining companies, for example, instead of buying physical gold.
Funds and stocks are generally more liquid in the event an investor needs to sell the asset, Baker said. Investors with a lot of physical gold likely have the additional hassle of storing it somewhere and insuring it, Baker said. Insurance may cost investors 1% to 2% or more of their gold’s value per year.

Similar to Baker, Samana believes it may be okay for investors to hold 1% to 2% of a well-diversified portfolio in gold.
Investors interested in buying gold should consider it as a piece of a broader commodities portfolio, which likely includes allocations to energy, agriculture and base metals like copper alongside precious metals like gold, Samana said.
Wells Fargo’s investment models have an overall commodities allocation that ranges from 2% for conservative investors to 7% for more aggressive growth, he said. More

Anthropic is in talks to raise $3.5 billion in a new funding round, significantly more than what was previously expected.
The funding would roughly triple Anthropic’s valuation to $61.5 billion, CNBC has confirmed.
The round is being led by Lightspeed Venture Partners, with participation from General Catalyst and others, sources said.

Dario Amodei, Anthropic’s CEO, speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 21, 2025.
Gerry Miller | CNBC

Anthropic is in talks to raise a $3.5 billion funding round, significantly more than the amount previously expected, CNBC has confirmed.
The round would roughly triple the artificial intelligence startup’s valuation to $61.5 billion, according to two sources familiar with the deal, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. Lightspeed Venture Partners is leading the funding, with participation from General Catalyst and others, the sources said.

The financing, which was first reported by The Wall Street Journal, signals continued investor demand for top-tier AI companies, even in the face of potential disruption from China’s DeepSeek. Anthropic is backed by Amazon and Google, and had initially set out to raise $2 billion, according to a source.
Anthropic declined to comment.
The company’s last private market valuation was $18 billion. Amazon has poured $8 billion into the startup.
Anthropic was founded by early OpenAI employees and is the creator of the popular chatbot Claude. Earlier Monday, Anthropic released what it says is its “most intelligent AI model yet.” Its so-called hybrid model combines an ability to reason — or stopping to think about complex answers — with a traditional model that spits out answers in real time.

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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday said the U.S. government is inefficient and in need of work as the Trump administration terminates thousands of federal employees.
Dimon was asked by CNBC’s Leslie Picker whether he supported efforts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
“The government is inefficient, not very competent, and needs a lot of work,” Dimon told Picker. “It’s not just waste and fraud, its outcomes.”

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday said the U.S. government is inefficient and in need of work as the Trump administration terminates thousands of federal employees and works to dismantle agencies including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Dimon was asked by CNBC’s Leslie Picker whether he supported efforts by Elon Musk’s advisory body, the Department of Government Efficiency. He declined to give what he called a “binary” response, but made comments that supported the overall effort.

“The government is inefficient, not very competent, and needs a lot of work,” Dimon told Picker. “It’s not just waste and fraud, it’s outcomes.”
The Trump administration’s effort to rein in spending and scrutinize federal agencies “needs to be done,” Dimon added.
“Why are we spending the money on these things? Are we getting what we deserve? What should we change?” Dimon said. “It’s not just about the deficit, its about building the right policies and procedures and the government we deserve.”
Dimon said if DOGE overreaches with its cost-cutting efforts or engages in activity that’s not legal, “the courts will stop it.”
“I’m hoping it’s quite successful,” he said.
In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon also addressed his company’s push to have most workers in office five days a week, as well as his views on the Ukraine conflict, tariffs and the U.S. consumer.

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Berkshire’s operating profit — earnings from the company’s wholly owned businesses — skyrocketed 71% to $14.5 billion in the fourth quarter, aided by insurance underwriting.
In Buffett’s annual letter, the “Oracle of Omaha” said that raising a record amount of cash didn’t reflect a dimming of his love for buying stocks and businesses.

Warren Buffett surveys the concourse ahead of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, May 3, 2024.
David A. Grogen | CNBC

Berkshire Hathaway shares got a boost after Warren Buffett’s conglomerate reported a surge in operating earnings, but shareholders who were waiting for news of what will happen to its enormous pile of cash might be disappointed.
Class A shares of the Omaha-based parent of Geico and BNSF Railway jumped nearly 4% Monday following Berkshire’s earnings report Saturday. Berkshire’s operating profit — earnings from the company’s wholly owned businesses — skyrocketed 71% to $14.5 billion in the fourth quarter, aided by insurance underwriting, where profits jumped 302% from the year-earlier period, to $3.4 billion.

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Berkshire’s investment gains from its portfolio holdings slowed sharply, however, in the fourth quarter, to $5.2 billion from $29.1 billion in the year-earlier period. Berkshire sold more equities than it bought for a ninth consecutive quarter in the three months of last year, bringing total sale of equities to more than $134 billion in 2024. Notably, the 94-year-old Buffett has been aggressively shrinking Berkshire’s two largest equity holdings — Apple and Bank of America.
As a result of the selling spree, Berkshire’s gigantic cash pile grew to another record, $334.2 billion, up from $325.2 billion at the end of the third quarter. 
In Buffett’s annual letter, the “Oracle of Omaha” said that raising a record amount of cash didn’t reflect a dimming of his love for buying stocks and businesses.
“Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities,” Buffett wrote. “That preference won’t change.”
He hinted that high valuations were the reason for sitting on his hands amid a raging bull market, saying “often, nothing looks compelling.” Buffett also endorsed the ability of Greg Abel, his chosen successor, to pick equity opportunities, even comparing him to the late Charlie Munger.

Meanwhile, Berkshire’s buyback halt is still in place, as the conglomerate repurchased zero shares in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of this year, through Feb. 10.
Some investors and analysts expressed impatience with the lack of action and continued to wait for an explanation, while others have faith that Buffett’s conservative stance will pave the way for big opportunities in the next downturn.
“Shareholders should take comfort in knowing that the firm continues to be managed to survive and emerge stronger from any economic or market downturn by being in a financial position to take advantage of opportunities during a crisis,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust Company and a Berkshire shareholder.
Berkshire is coming off a strong year, when it rallied 25.5% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 — its best since 2021. The stock is up more than 5% so far in 2025.
Correction: Buffett’s chosen successor is Greg Abel. An earlier version misspelled his name. More

China on Feb. 19 published a “2025 action plan for stabilizing foreign investment” to improve the ability of foreign capital to invest in domestic telecommunication and biotechnology industries, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.
“We are looking forward to see this implemented in a manner that delivers tangible benefits for our members,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement.
“This action plan is a very strong signal,” Xiaojia Sun, Beijing-based partner at JunHe Law, said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have escalated over the last several years.
Florence Lo | Reuters

BEIJING — China is trying yet again to boost foreign investment, amid geopolitical tensions and businesses’ calls for more concrete actions.
On Feb. 19, authorities published a “2025 action plan for stabilizing foreign investment” to make it easier for foreign capital to invest in domestic telecommunication and biotechnology industries, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

The document called for clearer standards in government procurement — a major issue for foreign businesses in China — and for the development of a plan to gradually allow foreign investment in the education and culture sectors.
“We are looking forward to see this implemented in a manner that delivers tangible benefits for our members,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement Thursday.
The chamber pointed out that China has already mentioned plans to open up telecommunications, health care, education and culture to foreign investment. Greater clarity on public procurement requirements is a “notable positive,” the chamber said, noting that “if fully implemented,” it could benefit foreign companies that have invested heavily to localize their production in China.

China’s latest action plan was released around the same time the Commerce Ministry disclosed that foreign direct investment in January fell by 13.4% to 97.59 billion yuan ($13.46 billion). That was after FDI plunged by 27.1% in 2024 and dropped by 8% in 2023, after at least eight straight years of annual growth, according to official data available through Wind Information.
All regions should “ensure that all the measures are implemented in 2025, and effectively boost foreign investment confidence,” the plan said. The Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission — the economic planning agency — jointly released the action plan through the government’s executive body, the State Council.

Officials from the Commerce Ministry emphasized in a press conference Thursday that the action plan would be implemented by the end of 2025, and that details on subsequent supportive measures would come soon.
“We appreciate the Chinese government’s recognition of the vital role foreign companies play in the economy,” Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement. “We look forward to further discussions on the key challenges our members face and the steps needed to ensure a more level playing field for market access.”
AmCham China’s latest survey of members, released last month, found that a record share are considering or have started diversifying manufacturing or sourcing away from China. The prior year’s survey had found members were finding it harder to make money in China than before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Consumer spending in China has remained lackluster since the pandemic, with retail sales only growing by the low single digits in recent months. Tensions with the U.S. have meanwhile escalated as the White House has restricted Chinese access to advanced technology and levied tariffs on Chinese goods.

‘A very strong signal’

While many aspects of the action plan were publicly mentioned last year, some points — such as allowing foreign companies to buy local equity stakes using domestic loans — are relatively new, said Xiaojia Sun, Beijing-based partner at JunHe Law.
She also highlighted the plan’s call to support foreign investors’ ability to participate in mergers and acquisitions in China, and noted it potentially benefits overseas listings. Sun’s practice covers corporates, mergers and acquisitions and capital markets.
The bigger question remains China’s resolve to act on the plan.
“This action plan is a very strong signal,” Sun said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. She said she expects Beijing to follow through with implementation, and noted that its release was similar to a rare, high-profile meeting earlier in the week of Chinese President Xi Jinping and entrepreneurs.
That gathering on Feb. 17 included Alibaba founder Jack Ma and DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng. In recent years, regulatory crackdowns and uncertainty about future growth had dampened business confidence and foreign investor sentiment.
China needs to strike a balance between tariff retaliation and stabilizing FDI, Citi analysts pointed out earlier this month.
“We believe China policymakers are likely cautious about targeting U.S. [multinationals] as a form of retaliation against U.S. tariffs,” the analysts said. “FDI comes into China, bringing technology and know-how, creating jobs, revenue and profit, and contributing to tax revenue.” 
In a relatively rare acknowledgement, Chinese Commerce Ministry officials on Thursday noted the impact of geopolitical tensions on foreign investment, including some companies’ decision to diversify away from China. They also pointed out that foreign-invested firms contribute to nearly 7% of employment and around 14% of taxes in the country.
Previously, official commentary from the Commerce Ministry about any drop in FDI tended to focus only on how most foreign businesses remained optimistic about long-term prospects in China. More

BEHIND THE vaulted arches of Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, above the haggling and the crush, a quieter trade unfolds. In dimly lit corridors, men slip in and out of back rooms, clutching bundles of dollars. Amid the shadows, a trader says that he deals in millions daily, mostly swapped for stablecoins—cryptocurrencies pegged to other assets, usually the greenback. More

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., Feb. 11, 2025. 
Craig Hudson | Reuters

The popular narrative among Federal Reserve policymakers these days is that policy is “well-positioned” to adjust to any upside or downside risks ahead. However, it might be more accurate to say that policy is stuck in position.
With an abundance of unknowns swirling through the economy and the halls of Washington, the only gear the central bank really can be in these days is neutral as it begins what could be a long wait for certainty on what’s actually ahead.

“In recent weeks, we’ve heard not only enthusiasm — particularly from banks, about possible shifts in tax and regulatory policies — but also widespread apprehension about future trade and immigration policy,” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in a blog post. “These crosscurrents inject still more complexity into policymaking.”
Bostic’s comments came during an active week for what is known on Wall Street as “Fedspeak,” or the chatter that happens between policy meetings from Chair Jerome Powell, central bank governors and regional presidents.
Officials who have spoken frequently described policy as “well-positioned” — the language is now a staple of post-meeting statements. But increasingly, they are expressing caution about the volatility coming from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and economic agenda, as well as other factors that could influence policy.

“Uncertainty” is an increasingly common theme. In fact, Bostic titled his Thursday blog post “Uncertainty Calls for Caution, Humility in Policymaking.” A day earlier, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee released minutes from the Jan. 28-29 meeting, with a dozen references to the uncertain climate in the document.
The minutes specifically cited “elevated uncertainty regarding the scope, timing, and potential economic effects of possible changes to trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies.”

Uncertainty factors into the Fed’s decision making in two ways: the impact that it has on the employment picture, which has been relatively stable, and inflation, which has been easing but could rise again as consumers and business leaders get spooked about the impact tariffs could have on prices.

Missing the target

The Fed targets inflation at 2%, a goal that has remained elusive for going on four years.
“Right now, I see the risks of inflation staying above target as skewed to the upside,” St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem told reporters Thursday. “My baseline scenario is one where inflation continues to converge towards 2%, providing monetary policy remains modestly restrictive, and that will take time. I think there is a potential for inflation to remain high and activity to slow. … That’s an alternative scenario, not a baseline scenario, but I’m attentive to it.”
The operative in Musalem’s comment is that policy holds at “modestly restrictive,” which is where he considers the current level of the fed funds rate between 4.25%-4.5%. Bostic was a little less explicit on feeling the need to keep rates on hold, but emphasized that “this is no time for complacency” and noted that “additional threats to price stability may emerge.”
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, thought to be among the least hawkish FOMC members when it comes to inflation, was more measured in his assessment of tariffs and did not offer commentary in separate appearances, including one on CNBC, on where he thinks rates should go.
“If you’re just thinking about tariffs, it depends how many countries are they going to apply to, and how big are they going to be, and the more it looks like a Covid-sized shock, the more nervous you should be,” Goolsbee said.

Many risks ahead

More broadly, though, the January minutes indicated a Fed highly attuned to potential shocks and not interested in testing the waters with any further interest rate moves. The meeting summary pointedly noted that committee members want “further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.”
There’s also more than just tariffs and inflation to worry about.
The minutes characterized the risks to financial stability as “notable,” specifically in the area of leverage and the level of long-duration debt that banks are holding.
Prominent economist Mark Zandi — not normally an alarmist — said in a panel discussion presented by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation that he worries about dangers to the $46.2 trillion U.S. bond market.
“In my view, the biggest risk is that we see a major sell off in the bond market,” said Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The bond market feels incredibly fragile to me. The plumbing is broken. The primary dealers aren’t keeping up with the amount of debt outstanding.”
“There’s just so many things coming together that I think there’s a very significant threat that at some point over the next 12 months, we see a major sell-off in the bond market,” he added.
In this climate, he said, there’s scant chance for the Fed to cut rates — though markets are pricing in the potential for a half percentage point in reductions by the end of the year.
That’s wishful thinking considering tariffs and other intangibles hanging over the Fed’s head, Zandi said.
“I just don’t see the Fed cutting interest rates here until you get a better feel about inflation coming back to target,” he said. “The economy came into 2025 in a pretty good spot. Feels like it’s performing well. Should be able to weather a lot of storms. But it feels like there’s a lot of storms coming.” More

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raised its stakes in Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co., Itochu, Marubeni and Sumitomo — all to 7.4%.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Warren Buffett released Saturday his annual letter to shareholders.
In it, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway discussed how he still preferred stocks over cash, despite the conglomerate’s massive cash hoard. He also lauded successor Greg Abel for his ability to pick opportunities — and compared him to the late Charlie Munger. More