Finance

China’s big “Golden Week” holiday saw domestic tourism rebound to around pre-pandemic levels, while overseas travel had yet to fully recover.
On a per capita basis, domestic tourism spending returned to 98% of 2019 levels, much higher than the 85% figure seen during holidays earlier in the year, Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out.
The uptick in Chinese tourism comes as the country’s rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic has slowed, dragged down in part by a property market slump.

Passengers return from Nanjing Railway Station in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China, Oct 6, 2023.
Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s big “Golden Week” holiday saw domestic tourism rebound to around pre-pandemic levels, while overseas travel had yet to fully recover, according to official figures.
Those numbers for the eight-day holiday that ended Friday also came in lower than the government had initially predicted.

Golden Week domestic tourism revenue was 753.43 billion yuan ($103.24 billion) — a 1.5% increase from that in 2019, according to China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism. The number of domestic tourist trips rose by 4.1% from 2019 to 826 million during the latest eight-day holiday, the ministry said.
Both figures were lower than what Chinese state media had earlier cited the ministry as predicting: 896 million trips and 782.5 billion yuan in domestic tourism revenue.
However, the final tourism revenue figure still marked a rebound to 2019 levels for the first time since China ended its Covid-19 restrictions late last year, Morgan Stanley’s Chief China Economist Robin Xing and a team pointed out in a note Friday.

They added that on a per capita basis, spending returned to 98% of 2019 levels, much higher than the 85% figure seen during holidays earlier in the year.
“This is likely due to an extra-long Golden Week holiday (eight days vs. seven usually), which encouraged long-distance travel and thus boosted average spending,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said.

This year, the traditional Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival and the Oct. 1 National Holiday were close enough that Beijing declared an eight-day holiday from Friday, Sept. 29 to Friday, Oct. 6, the official dates of this year’s Golden Week.
That meant the subsequent Saturday and Sunday were officially working days, but some businesses did not resume work until Monday.
In a country where businesses typically only provide a handful of paid vacation days, the week-plus break also meant more people chose to travel overseas.
The National Immigration Administration recorded about 11.8 million trips in and out of mainland China during the holiday, for a daily average of nearly 1.5 million trips — that’s 85.1% of 2019 levels.
That was also below earlier predictions, reported by state media, which forecast nearly 1.6 million trips across the border a day.
Chinese travel booking site Trip.com Group said outbound travel during the holiday surged by more than eight times versus a year ago, with people in their mid-20s to early 30s accounting for nearly 30% of such travelers.
Top destinations included Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea, Trip.com said. It noted that Switzerland, Spain, Turkey, the U.K. and France saw the fastest growth in tourist numbers versus China’s Labor Day holiday in May.
Trip.com did not provide comparisons to 2019. CEO Jane Sun previously told CNBC’s Eunice Yoon that long wait times for visa applications — such as two to six months to visit Europe — are keeping people in China from traveling internationally as much as they’d like to.

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The uptick in Chinese tourism comes as the country’s rebound from the pandemic has slowed, dragged down in part by a property market slump.
“The National Day golden week tourism data, together with the still above-50 September services [purchasing managers indexes], suggest the services recovery has decelerated but continues,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note Sunday.
“We believe additional policy easing will be necessary for further recovery in consumption and services, especially given the continued property downturn and still-dampened confidence,” the report said.
The analysts maintained their China GDP forecast of 5.4% for the year. More

“We call on relevant parties to remain calm, exercise restraint and immediately end the hostilities to protect civilians and avoid further deterioration of the situation,” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement Sunday about the “escalation of tensions and violence between Palestine and Israel.”
China did not mention the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip and has been designated a terrorist group by the U.S. and the European Union.
“The fundamental way out of the conflict lies in implementing the two-state solution and establishing an independent State of Palestine,” the Chinese foreign ministry said.

Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza, October 8, 2023. 
Mohammed Salem | Reuters

BEIJING — China called for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict — and for “establishing an independent State of Palestine,” according to a Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement Sunday.
“The fundamental way out of the conflict lies in implementing the two-state solution and establishing an independent State of Palestine,” the Chinese foreign ministry said.

Its online statement described the situation as an “escalation of tensions and violence between Palestine and Israel.”
It did not mention the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip and has been designated a terrorist group by the U.S. and the European Union.
According to NBC News, at least 700 people in Israel have been killed since Hamas militants infiltrated Israel on Saturday and abducted dozens, including civilians. Israel responded with counteroffensive strikes on Gaza, with the latest death toll at 370, according to the Palestinian health ministry.
“We call on relevant parties to remain calm, exercise restraint and immediately end the hostilities to protect civilians and avoid further deterioration of the situation,” the Chinese foreign ministry said.
“The international community needs to act with greater urgency, step up input into the Palestine question, facilitate the early resumption of peace talks between Palestine and Israel, and find a way to bring about enduring peace,” the statement added. “China will continue to work relentlessly with the international community towards that end.”

On Monday, China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Zhang Jun, took a more pointed stance on the developing conflict by saying “China condemns all violence and attacks against civilians.”
That’s according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese-language comments on X, formerly known as Twitter. More

There may be advantages to owning corporate bonds right now.
JPMorgan’s Bryon Lake believes his firm’s Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) is ideal for those looking to make money outside the volatile stock market.

“Some of the corporates got higher quality than the U.S. government [bonds] right now,” he told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
Lake, JPMorgan’s global head of ETF Solutions, also sees the firm’s active management strategy as an advantage of owning the JPST.
“We’re only taking on six-month duration, and so we got it nice and tight in there, so you’ve got very attractive credit quality,” he said.
The JPST has $23 billion in assets under management and has an “A” fund rating, according to FactSet. However, gains have been anemic. The fund’s performance is virtually flat year to date.
But that could be about to change.

Strategas Securities’ Todd Sohn also likes corporate bonds, citing the the monetary policy backdrop.

‘This is candy’

“As long as you’re in this higher-for-longer environment, this is candy — especially after not having it for 10-plus years during the QE [quantitative easing] era. You now just put a bowl of M&Ms in front of a child and can get that 5% … . That’s the analogy I like to use,” said Sohn, the firm’s managing director and technical strategist. “The TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) has the same standard deviation as the S&P 500 roughly right now.”
Sohn said that factor is a key reason why money market funds and short-duration products are attractive.
“Duration makes sense when the [Federal Reserve] is done hiking in anticipation of cuts,” Sohn said. “But if no cuts are coming, I don’t think you want that volatility. It’s not fun to sit in.”
The TLT is down almost 15% so far this year and off 25% over the past five years.

Disclaimer More

The Tesla logo is seen on a charger station in Virginia on Aug. 16, 2023.
Celal Gunes | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.
Pioneer Natural Resources — The energy stock added nearly 10.5%. The action comes after The Wall Street Journal reported that Exxon Mobil is close to a deal to acquire Pioneer for about $60 billion. Exxon shares slid 1.7%.

Tesla — Shares of the electric vehicle company added 0.2% after Tesla cut the price of some Model 3 and Model Y versions in the U.S. Tesla began slashing prices on its cars across the world at the end of last year in a bid to stoke demand. Tesla also reported third-quarter deliveries that missed market expectations.
Levi Strauss — Shares slid 0.8% after the denim apparel maker cut its full-year sales forecast. Late Thursday, Levi posted fiscal third-quarter revenue that missed expectations, and it cut its full-year sales guidance again. Levi’s CEO said consumers were buying fewer items due to inflation and rising mortgage and gas prices.
MGM Resorts — The resort and casino operator rose 4.9% after offering an update on a cybersecurity issue experienced last month. Late Thursday, MGM said the cyberattack it suffered in September would cost the company about $100 million, but it expects the effect beyond the third quarter would likely be “minimal.” The company said any effect on full-year financial conditions and operational results won’t be material.
Freedom Holding — Shares rose about 1.5% after CNBC reported that the financial services company was under investigation by federal prosecutors and the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company is being probed over compliance issues, insider stock moves and an offshore affiliate.
Philips — U.S.-listed shares fell 7.2% a day after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said Philips’ handling of its sleep apnea device recall in 2021 wasn’t adequate. The FDA is requiring additional testing on the machines, known as CPAP devices.

Aehr Test Systems — The semiconductor test system provider tumbled 12.6%. On Thursday, Aehr reaffirmed its guidance for full-year revenue of at least $100 million, while analysts polled by FactSet called for $102.9 million.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals — The pharmaceutical stock gained 3.5%. JPMorgan upgraded Apellis to an overweight rating, saying its eye disease treatment could boost shares more than 100%.
e.l.f. Beauty — The cosmetics retailer added 3.5% following a Jefferies upgrade to buy from hold. The firm said e.l.f. is “the leader in bringing ‘first to mass’ items to market.”
Liberty Media Formula One — Shares of the motorsports stock advanced 3.6% following an upgrade to buy from neutral by Citi. The bank said concerns around the Las Vegas Grand Prix are overblown.
Frontdoor — The home repair company’s shares climbed 4.4% on the back of a Truist upgrade to buy from hold. Truist said Frontdoor’s shares are trading at attractive levels.
MarketAxess — Shares jumped about 5.8% after UBS initiated coverage of the fixed income trading platform with a buy rating. The firm described MarketAxess as a “pure-play on the electronification of credit trading, which remains early stage.”
AES — The utility provider dropped 1.3% to a new 52-week low Friday, a day after UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy and significantly cut its price target. UBS said the company should be pressured by rising interest rates and an earnings deceleration in the infrastructure business as coal shuts down.
— CNBC’s Pia Singh, Yun Li, Michelle Fox and Samantha Subin contributed reporting. More

Investors have piled into short-term U.S. government bonds in a bid to wait out the upheaval caused by a blowout in longer-term yields, according to Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs.
An auction this week of 52-week Treasury bills at a 5.19% rate was 3.2 times oversubscribed, its highest demand of the year, Rosner said.
“They’re saying, ‘I’m now being afforded a lot more yield in the very front end of the curve in government paper’,” Rosner told CNBC in a phone interview, referring to 1-year T-bills.

A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. logo hangs on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, May 19, 2010.
Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Investors have piled into short-term U.S. government bonds in a bid to wait out the upheaval caused by a blowout in longer-term yields, according to a Goldman Sachs executive.
An auction this week of 52-week Treasury bills at a 5.19% rate was 3.2 times oversubscribed, its highest demand of the year, said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs asset and wealth management.

“They’re saying, ‘I’m now being afforded a lot more yield in the very front end of the curve in government paper’,” Rosner told CNBC in a phone interview, referring to 1-year T-bills. “That is really where you’re seeing investors flock.”
The trade is a key way that institutions and wealthy investors are adjusting to the surge in long-term interest rates that have roiled markets lately. The 10-year Treasury yield has been climbing for weeks, reaching a 16-year high of 4.89% Friday after the September jobs report showed that employers were still hiring aggressively. Investors poured more than $1 trillion into new T-bills last quarter, according to Bloomberg.

The playbook, according to Rosner, takes advantage of the presumption that interest rates will be higher for longer than markets had expected earlier this year. If that sentiment holds true, longer-duration Treasuries like the 10-year should offer better yields next year as the yield curve steepens, she said.
“You get to collect a 5% coupon for the next year,” she said. “Then, in a year, you may have opportunities [in longer-duration Treasuries] at greater than 5% in government securities or potentially in [corporate bonds] that are now properly priced.
“You could then get a double-digit yield, but be confident about valuation, unlike now,” she added.

While 10-year Treasuries have crashed in recent weeks, other fixed income instruments including investment-grade and high-yield bonds haven’t fully reflected the change in rate assumptions, according to Rosner. That makes them a bad deal for the moment, but could create opportunities down the road.
The upheaval that’s punished holders of longer-dated Treasuries in recent weeks has professional managers reducing the average duration of their portfolios, according to Ben Emons, head of fixed income at NewEdge Wealth. 
“Treasury bills are in high demand,” he said. “Anyone out there who needs to manage duration in their portfolio, you do that with the 1-year T bill. That’s what BlackRock is doing, it’s what I’m doing.” More

The american economy is supposed to be slowing down by now, and that is supposed to be translating into a weaker labour market. But according to figures released on October 6th, the country added 336,000 jobs in September, nearly twice as many as forecast and the most since January (see chart). It is the latest evidence that, despite an aggressive series of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve over the past 18 months, American growth remains resilient. Instead of the “hard-landing” forecasts that predicted a recession, and were so common earlier this year, America looks to be heading for something more like a “no-landing” scenario.image: The EconomistUnderlying the data release is a vexing question, about whether the labour-market resilience is excessive, and will therefore place upward pressure on inflation. If so, Fed policymakers will be tempted to resume their interest-rate rises before long. In recent weeks financial markets have moved sharply to price in the possibility that rates will remain elevated for an extended period—or, to use the terminology now favoured, stay “higher for longer”—owing to the Fed’s protracted fight against inflation. Yields on long-term Treasury bonds have soared since August to around 4.8%, their highest in more than 15 years, which represents a swift tightening of financial conditions.Initial reactions to the strong jobs data fell into the good-news-is-bad-news mould. In the minutes after the release, yields on Treasuries jumped yet higher, reflecting bets that the Fed may raise rates again as soon as its next meeting, scheduled for the end of this month. That, in turn, weighed on stockmarkets globally.However, as analysts and investors digested the numbers, worries about the outlook for rates gave way to optimism about the broader economy, because the employment report also offered pretty positive signals about inflation. Average hourly earnings—a proxy for wage growth—were up 0.2% month-on-month in September, the slowest monthly rise since early 2022. In year-on-year terms, earnings growth of 4.2% dipped to its weakest since mid-2021. Alongside a recent deceleration in inflation, an ebbing of wage pressures will reassure the Fed that prices are trending in the desired direction.A separate batch of labour-market data published at the same time—based on a survey of households rather than businesses—also painted a more restrained picture. It showed that just 86,000 jobs were added last month. With 90,000 people entering the workforce at the same time, the unemployment rate remained perfectly steady at 3.8%, which is low by historical standards but a touch higher than a few months ago. All this suggests that the labour market has gone from being ultra-tight to just moderately tight. Viewed in such a light, America’s economic resilience would appear to be impressive, not excessive. ■ More

The U.S. Labor Department is poised to issue a rule expected to crack down on investment advice relative to rollovers from 401(k) plans to individual retirement accounts.
The Obama administration tried to similarly raise protections for retirement savers. Its regulation was ultimately killed in court.
Investors rolled $618 billion to IRAs in 2020, according to IRS data. That sum doubled in a decade.

The U.S. Department of Labor building in Washington, D.C.
The Washington Post | The Washington Post | Getty Images

There’s a ‘tsunami’ of rollovers to IRAs

IRAs held about $11.5 trillion in 2022, almost double the $6.6 trillion in 401(k) plans, according to the Investment Company Institute. More than 4 in 10 American households — about 55 million of them — own IRAs, the group said.
The bulk of those IRA assets come from rollovers.

About 5.7 million Americans rolled a total $618 billion to IRAs in 2020 alone, according to IRS data. That’s more than double the $300 billion rolled over a decade earlier.
The figure is also seven times larger than the share of money contributed directly to IRAs. In 2020, 74% of new pre-tax IRAs (also known as “traditional” accounts) were opened just with rollovers, ICI said.

There’s a “tsunami of assets” moving from workplace plans to IRAs, Phyllis Borzi, who led the Labor Department’s Employee Benefits Security Administration during the Obama administration, said during a webcast last month.
While there are pros and cons to rolling money to an IRA, one potential drawback is that the accounts tend to come with higher fees than 401(k) plans. For example, investors who moved money to an IRA in 2018 would lose about $45.5 billion to fees over 25 years, according to Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan research group.
And most recommendations made by brokers, insurance agents and others to roll over money to an IRA aren’t subject to a so-called “fiduciary” standard of care — meaning investors may not be getting advice that’s in their best interests, Reish said.
This is what the Labor Department will likely tweak, attorneys said.

‘Game changer’: Rollover advice may be ‘fiduciary’

Borzi, the former head of EBSA, had spearheaded a sweeping Labor Department effort to rewrite “fiduciary” rules in the Obama era. Those rules aimed to clamp down on conflicts of interest among brokers and others who make investment recommendations to retirement savers.
However, the rule was killed in court.
Now, the Labor Department is trying again, though its rule likely won’t be as far-reaching, experts said.
It submitted a proposed rule — called “Conflict of Interest in Investment Advice” — to the Office of Management and Budget in September. The OMB has 90 days to review the rule, Borzi said, after which the Labor Department would issue its proposal publicly.

Based on recent legal clues, attorneys expect the Labor Department will seek to raise the bar on all rollover advice provided by the financial ecosystem.
“That’s a game changer,” said Andrew Oringer, a retirement law expert and partner at The Wagner Law Group.
Critics think a new rule would do harm, however.
Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., sent a letter to the Labor Department in August saying its efforts were “misguided” and risked creating confusion in the marketplace, unwarranted compliance expenses and instability for retirement plans, retirees and savers.
It may be two years or more before a final rule takes effect, due to the typical length of the regulatory process, Borzi said.

There are legal loopholes for rollovers

Here’s why a new rule would be a big deal.
There’s currently a hodgepodge of rules governing how advisors, brokers, insurance agents and others can give financial advice to retirement savers. Different actors are beholden to different rules, some looser than others.
The fiduciary protections for 401(k) investors are generally the highest known to law, attorneys said. They’re governed by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974.
That generally means investment advice must be given solely in investors’ best interests. Advisors must set aside their own self-interests, and can’t make recommendations to buy a fund, annuity or other investment that pays them a higher commission at the expense of an investor, for example.

It may not cause fewer rollovers, but it will almost certainly cause more thoughtful rollovers.

Fred Reish
partner at law firm Faegre Drinker Biddle & Reath

The singular focus on investors’ best interests “is an extremely significant difference” relative to other investor protections, Oringer said.
However, due to loopholes, rollover advice generally falls outside the purview of those protections, attorneys said.
But the Labor Department may close those loopholes and subject all rollovers to ERISA’s protections.
“All of a sudden, I’d have to care about your best interests when I try to get you to do that rollover,” Oringer said of financial firms and their agents. “That completely changes the way in which I have to behave.”
Among the other big changes: ERISA protections would give investors the right to sue someone in court for bad rollover advice, Reish said.
Currently, that private right of action generally doesn’t apply to investment advisors, brokerage firms, insurers, banks or trust companies — only their respective regulators (and not individual investors) can enforce their rules, Reish said. More

The U.K.’s Metro Bank will likely struggle to raise fresh capital to shore up its balance sheet, according to analysts, who outlined bleak prospects for the beleaguered bank.
Shares of the bank were briefly suspended from trading twice on Thursday after it confirmed it was looking to raise new capital.
Rival banks including HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest Group are now being sounded out to buy around a £3 billion chunk of its mortgages, according to reports.

The U.K.’s embattled Metro Bank has launched talks to sell a third of its mortgage book in an urgent attempt to shore up its balance sheet.
Matthew Horwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — The U.K.’s Metro Bank will likely struggle to raise fresh capital to shore up its balance sheet, according to analysts, who outlined bleak prospects for the beleaguered bank.
A number of ratings agencies and investment banks have downgraded the bank’s stock following a turbulent 24 hours in which its shares were briefly suspended from trading twice after plunging more than 29% from Wednesday’s close.

Metro Bank reversed its losses Friday and was trading up around 34% at 12:55 p.m. London time.
The turmoil came amid reports that the embattled bank was seeking to raise up to £250 million ($305 million) in equity funding and £350 million of debt. Metro Bank confirmed in a statement early Thursday that it was considering “how best to enhance its capital resources.”
Late Thursday, reports emerged that the bank was in talks to sell a third of its mortgage book. Rival banks including HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest Group are now being sounded out to buy around a £3 billion chunk of its mortgage book, according to sources who spoke to Sky News and the FT.
Selling the assets would reduce the bank’s earnings but also sharply reduce the amount of capital it is forced to hold.
Metro Bank did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the reports; nor did any of the rival banks cited.

However, analysts said the bank’s fund-raising prospects did not look good.
Investment bank Stifel on Friday downgraded the stock from “hold” to “sell,” saying it thinks there are “no easy solutions for the bank and risks to the bonds remain skewed to the downside.” It noted that the bank could be nationalized under the Bank of England’s resolution scheme and then sold on, either as a whole or in parts.
“We think at this point the bank is in a difficult position, with capital needs potentially of up to a billion over the next two years,” the analysts said, adding that the bank is just about breaking even or marginally profitable under “currently benign market condition.”
Barclays Bank also downgraded the stock to underweight on Friday.
Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings on Thursday placed the bank on “ratings watch negative” based on its assessment that “short-term risks to the UK challenger bank’s business model stabilization, capital buffers and funding have risen.”

A challenge to traditional banking

The developments mark the latest phase in an ongoing saga for Metro Bank, which launched in 2010 with a pledge to challenge traditional banking in the wake of the financial crisis.
Last month, the Bank of England’s main regulator, the Prudential Regulation Authority, suggested that it was unlikely to allow the lender to use its own internal risk models for some mortgages.
The bank’s chair Robert Sharpe was called in on Thursday to meet officials from the central bank’s regulatory authority, as well as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), according to the FT, which cited people briefed on the situation.
The sources said it was the latest in a series of contacts between regulators and the bank over the past month as its share price almost halved.
When contacted by CNBC, the Bank of England declined to comment on the meeting.

Limited risks of contagion

Shares of Metro Bank have lost around two-thirds of their value since the middle of February. The bank was valued at £87 million as of the Wednesday close, according to Reuters.
Given its relatively low market cap, ratings agency DBRS Morningstar, which holds no rating on the bank, said in a note that Metro Bank’s ability to access external financing will be “highly constrained.”
However, it added that the bank’s difficulties were unlikely to have a broader impact on the U.K.’s financial sector due to its size and idiosyncratic issues.
In 2019, the bank reported a serious miscalculation of its risk-weighted assets, damaging its reputation and resulting in fines of £10 million and £5 million from the FCA and the PRA, respectively.
In the meantime, short sellers have been tapping into the bank’s misfortunes. Investors betting against the bank have gained £4.8 million so far in 2023, and £2.5 million in October alone, according to financial analytics firm Ortex.
“The short interest in Metro is very high,” it said in a note. “ORTEX currently estimates that 9.35% of the freely tradable shares are on loan and most likely shorted.” More