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    Home advantage? Why investors may want to avoid the international trade

    According to Main Management CEO Kim Arthur, global markets will meaningfully struggle due to the softening greenback.
    On Friday, the U.S. dollar index hit a 15-month low.

    Investors may want to reduce international exposure right now and stick with the home court.
    According to Main Management CEO Kim Arthur, global markets will meaningfully struggle due to the softening greenback.

    “One of the highest predicting factors for [the] future performance of international stocks versus U.S stocks is what the U.S dollar does,” Arthur told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “From 2011 to 2022, the dollar was in a straight bull market, so you were gonna lose in international equities no matter what you did.”
    On Friday, the U.S. dollar index hit a 15-month low. It comes about 10 months after it hit a 10-year high.
    “The dollar topped last September, okay? So you really have to have an opinion on where the dollar is going. We personally think the dollar is heading down,” said Arthur.
    Arthur, who was head of Bank of America’s institutional sales and trading department, believes the dollar will eventually return to a period of strengthening.
    “We are way ahead of the rest of the world in terms of fighting inflation. Our inflation numbers are lower than the rest of the world. Our interest rates are higher than the rest of the world,” said Arthur. “So what does that mean? That’s a perfect setup where we’re going to be cutting rates before the rest of the world. And that differential leads to a stronger dollar.”

    ETF Action Founding Partner Mike Akins cites another market dynamic that could hurt global stocks: the strong appetite for U.S. mega-cap technology stocks.
    “You see more and more flows continuing to go into U.S. stocks. … Very little money is going into the international marketplace. And that kind of just creates itself,” Akins said. “I’m not sure what the catalyst is there, other than to say that it has to start with those big names: Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, now Google [Alphabet]. Those names that are creating this multiple expansion for the broader S&P 500 because they make up such a large percentage of it. That’s where the catalysts will have to be to see value come back, to see international come back [and] to see emerging come back.”
    As of Friday’s close, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is up 8% this year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up 17%. More

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    Stocks making the biggest moves midday: UnitedHealth, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, JetBlue and more

    A UnitedHealth Group health insurance card is seen in a wallet, Oct.14, 2019.
    Lucy Nicholson | Reuters

    Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.
    JPMorgan Chase — Shares inched 0.6% higher after the bank reported stronger-than-expected results for the second quarter, as it benefited from higher interest rates and better-than-expected bond trading.

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    Wells Fargo — Wells Fargo shares dipped slightly even after the Wall Street firm topped second-quarter expectations. The bank also said it anticipates higher-than-expected net interest income this year.
    UnitedHealth — The health-care giant popped 7.2% after topping expectations for the second quarter on both the top and bottom lines. UnitedHealth also upped the lower end of its full-year guidance. Other health-care stocks rose in sympathy, with Cigna and Elevance Health last up more than 4% each.
    Citigroup — Shares of the New York-based lender fell 4% even after the firm reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped expectations. Despite the beat, Citi’s revenue fell 1% from a year ago as the decline in markets and investment banking businesses weighed on its results.
    JetBlue Airways, American Airlines — JetBlue Airways and American Airlines slid 3.8% and 1.7%, respectively. The two airlines are no longer selling seats on each other’s flights after Thursday, following a court ruling in May that they end their more than two-year partnership.
    Microsoft — The software stock finished 0.8% after UBS upgraded it to a buy rating, saying its artificial intelligence opportunity and recent underperformance make it too attractive to ignore.

    AT&T — The telecommunications stock sank 4.1% after JPMorgan downgraded it to neutral from overweight, citing competition concerns. The Wall Street firm also said AT&T’s exposure to cable may limit the upside for shares.
    State Street — Shares slumped 12.1% after the financial giant’s second-quarter revenue of $3.11 billion missed analyst estimates of $3.14 billion, per Refinitiv. However, State Street beat on earnings, reporting earnings per share of $2.17, versus the $2.10 expected by analysts.
    Blackrock — Shares of the asset manager lost 1.6% after reporting second-quarter results. Earnings topped Wall Street’s expectations, but net inflows came up short and showed a decline.
    Alcoa — The aluminum stock fell 5.9% following a downgrade to neutral from overweight by JPMorgan. The firm said the stock could struggle as the price for the metal faces downward pressure.
    Progressive — Progressive shares gained 1.8%, reversing prior losses, after Wells Fargo downgraded the insurance company to equal weight from overweight, citing growth concerns.
    Eli Lilly — The pharmaceutical stock rose 3.5% in midday trading. Eli Lilly said it plans to acquire privately held obesity drug maker Versanis for $1.9 billion.
    — CNBC’s Yun Li, Alex Harring, Sarah Min and Michelle Fox contributed reporting. More

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    How you can save $500 or more on a flight to Europe this year

    Summer 2023 is the most expensive on record to fly to Europe.
    Buying a round-trip international flight to Europe for travel in the fall can yield savings of $500 a ticket, on average, relative to summer departure, according to Hopper.
    The “shoulder season” around September and October is generally less expensive.
    Cities such as Rome, London, Paris and Barcelona have been top destinations for Americans. Travel abroad ramped up as Covid-19 restrictions eased.

    Jose A. Bernat Bacete | Moment | Getty Images

    Airfare to Europe hit an all-time high this summer. But those dissuaded by the sticker shock can still travel overseas in coming months and cut costs by perhaps hundreds of dollars a ticket.
    Flying to Europe from the U.S. during the fall “shoulder season” — in September and October — instead of in the summer will save the average traveler $500 per round-trip ticket, according to data from Hopper, a travel app.

    Europe is the most popular overseas destination for U.S. tourists this summer. But travelers to top European cities would save 34%, on average, by going in the fall instead of June, July or August, Hopper found.
    More from Personal Finance:Canceled or delayed flight? What to know about your rightsU.S. passport delays may be months longTravel to Europe is no longer a ‘screaming, bargain-basement’ deal
    Consider these examples: Airfare to Rome is $1,284, on average, this summer. It’s $736 this fall, a 43% reduction, or $548 of savings per ticket.
    Likewise, those venturing to London would pay $693 in the fall, 32% less than summer’s $1,025. In Barcelona, visitors would fly for $757 in the fall, versus $1,193 in the summer, a 37% savings.
    “There is some good news in sight,” Hayley Berg, Hopper’s lead economist, said of prices.

    Shoulder-season travel is typically less expensive

    Shoulder season is generally a less expensive time to travel. But the savings may be especially noteworthy to prospective buyers due to recent nosebleed costs, experts said.
    The price dynamic is guided by supply and demand: Fewer people typically travel in the fall, as kids return to school, for example.
    That also means not everyone — such as families with kids, or workers such as teachers whose vacations revolve around summer months — may be able to take advantage of a bargain.  
    But those who can travel during the shoulder season would likely get a better overall experience due to milder weather and reduced crowds, said Sally French, a travel expert at NerdWallet.

    Why international travel costs are so high

    Tourists and locals at the crowded El Postiguet Beach in Alicante, Spain, July 9, 2023.
    Marcos Del Mazo | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Costs to travel abroad have soared in 2023 as people who put off international trips during the Covid-19 pandemic indulge their pent-up wanderlust. There has been historic demand for passports and applications for federal travel programs such as Global Entry.
    Many Covid-era restrictions have eased, making it easier to go overseas. For example, the U.S. ended a testing requirement for international travelers in June 2022.
    Some countries’ borders were still closed last summer, especially those in Asia. Now, just seven nations have some kind of travel restriction in place for vaccinated American travelers, according to Kayak. For unvaccinated American travelers, the number rises to 23.
    “This is the first year people don’t have many Covid requirements at all,” French said.

    The Colosseum at sunrise in Rome.
    Alexander Spatari | Moment | Getty Images

    As a result, summer 2023 is the most expensive time on record to travel to Europe, Hopper said. The average ticket costs about $1,200, eclipsing the previous high in 2018 by $50 a ticket.
    In Asia, the No. 2 most-popular destination for Americans, average prices are 64% higher than pre-pandemic levels, Berg said.
    It’s not just airfare. Staying at a European hotel this summer costs $205 a night, a 37% increase from last year. Cities such as Rome and Madrid have seen prices jump 63% and 41%, respectively, over the last year, Hopper said.

    Price doesn’t seem to have dissuaded travelers, in the aggregate, from travel abroad, however.
    That makes sense from a money standpoint. The typical American tourist going abroad tends to be wealthier — with an average household income of $110,000 relative to $83,000 for all travelers — and much more optimistic about their personal finances, spilling over into a greater willingness to spend on leisure travel, according to a recent poll by Destination Analysts, a tourism market research firm.

    Other travel tips to scout a good deal

    Senja island, Norway.
    Roberto Moiola / Sysaworld | Moment | Getty Images

    Aside from traveling during the off-season, here are some general tips from travel experts on finding a good deal.

    Be flexible. Travel midweek (e.g., Tuesday and Wednesday) instead of during the weekend. Consider alternate locations, perhaps a destination such as Scandinavia instead of the most popular cities such as Paris and Rome. Play around with dates and locations using tools such as Google Flights and Explore.
    Don’t book flights at the last minute. Book an international flight a few months ahead, if possible.
    Use rewards. Now is a good time to use, and not hoard, any frequent flier miles or other benefits.
    Leverage credit card benefits. Your credit card may have perks for travel or rental-car insurance, or another benefit. Purchase part or all of a vacation with that card, and you may not need to buy separate insurance.
    Keep other costs in mind. If you find a good deal on airfare, don’t overlook other costs such as lodging before booking. They may amount to a bigger cost than airfare, depending on the length of stay and destination. More

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    Binance could lay off thousands as company buckles down for DOJ probe, source says

    Binance plans to lay off between 1,500 and 3,000 employees through the year in response to an ongoing Justice Department probe, a current employee familiar with the company’s plans told CNBC. A company spokesperson disputed the higher number.
    The company has already laid off 1,000, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier on Friday, and this number is part of the total, CNBC’s source said.
    Binance has been charged by both the SEC and CFTC with various securities and commodities violations, while founder Changpeng Zhao has downplayed concerns.

    Changpeng Zhao, billionaire and chief executive officer of Binance Holdings Ltd., speaks during a session at the Web Summit in Lisbon, Portugal, on Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022.
    Zed Jameson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Crypto exchange Binance is laying off employees in response to an ongoing Justice Department probe that is likely to end with a consent decree or settlement, according to a current employee who is familiar with the company’s plans.
    The cuts will eliminate 1,500 to 3,000 of Binance’s global workforce, this person told CNBC, and will take place through the end of the year. The Wall Street Journal previously reported on Friday that 1,000 employees have already been laid off, and those layoffs are part of the total planned, the source told CNBC. This person asked to remain anonymous because they are not authorized to talk to the press about internal matters.

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    The Justice Department probe will likely reshape the company fundamentally, the employee told CNBC. If Binance opts to settle the DOJ allegations, it could result in a multi-billion dollar payment. Reuters has reported that federal prosecutors have been weighing anti-money laundering violations and sanctions evasion charges, allegations that would make it difficult for Binance or founder Changpeng Zhao to continue to get licenses to operate.
    A Binance spokesperson disputed that the cuts would impact 3,000 employees, saying that the high-end number was “just not right.”
    The spokesperson said, “As we prepare for the next major bull cycle, it has become clear that we need to focus on talent density across the organization to ensure we remain nimble and dynamic. This is not a case of rightsizing, but rather, re-evaluating whether we have the right talent and expertise in critical roles.”
    Binance has faced significant regulatory challenges over the last few months, culminating in lawsuits from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over alleged mishandling of customer assets and the operation of an illegal, unregistered exchange in the U.S.
    Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has repeatedly dismissed concerns about the future of the exchange, even after being personally named in the SEC’s lawsuit. Binance itself has suffered significantly since the lawsuits from U.S. regulators, with exchange outflows running into the hundreds of millions. The company has also seen a number of key executive departures. More

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    Dimon says private equity giants are ‘dancing in the streets’ over tougher bank rules

    JPMorgan Chase executives warned that tougher regulations in the wake of bank failures this year would raise costs for consumers and businesses.
    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that other financial players could end up winners.
    “This is great news for hedge funds, private equity, private credit, Apollo, Blackstone,” Dimon said, naming two of the largest private equity players. “They’re dancing in the streets.”

    Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of the Nations Largest Banks, in Hart Building on Sept. 22, 2022.
    Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

    JPMorgan Chase executives warned Friday that tougher regulations in the wake of a trio of bank failures this year would raise costs for consumers and businesses, while forcing lenders to exit some businesses entirely.
    When asked by Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo about the impact of changes proposed by Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr in a speech earlier this week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that other financial players could end up winners.

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    “This is great news for hedge funds, private equity, private credit, Apollo, Blackstone,” Dimon said, naming two of the largest private equity players. “They’re dancing in the streets.”
    Blackstone and Apollo didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment on Dimon’s remarks.
    Banks face requirements to hold more capital as a cushion against risky activities from both U.S. and international regulators. Authorities are proposing higher capital requirements for banks with at least $100 billion in assets after the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. But that also coincides with a long-awaited set of international rules spurred by the 2008 financial crisis referred to as the Basel III endgame.

    Rise of the shadow banks

    “How much business leaves JPMorgan or the industry if capital ratios go up as much as potentially proposed?” Mayo asked.
    CFO Jeremy Barnum said that banks would raise prices on end users of loans and other products before ultimately deciding to leave some areas entirely.

    “To the extent we have pricing power and the higher capital requirements means that we’re not generating the right return for shareholders, we will try to reprice and see how that sticks,” Barnum said.
    “If the repricing is not successful, then in some cases, we will have to remix and that means getting out of certain products and services,” he said. “That probably means that those products and services leave the regulated perimeter and go elsewhere.”
    After the 2008 financial crisis, heightened rules forced banks to pull back from activities including mortgages and student loans. For corporations and institutional players, acquisitions and other huge loans are now increasingly funded by private equity players like Blackstone and Apollo.
    That has contributed to the rise of non-bank players, sometimes referred to as the “shadow banking” industry, which has concerned some financial experts because they generally face lower federal scrutiny than banks. More

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    Why Citigroup’s shift to wealth management is a risky bet

    Since the company’s collapse during the 2008 recession, Citigroup’s stock has continuously struggled.
    In response, Jane Fraser, the CEO of Citigroup, announced a bold shift in the company strategy, doubling down on wealth management.
    But despite the shift in strategy, Citigroup’s investment in wealth management hasn’t started to pay off.

    Since the company’s collapse during the 2008 recession, Citigroup’s stock has continuously struggled, with shares falling more than 30% over the past five years.
    In response, Jane Fraser, the CEO of Citigroup, announced a bold shift in company strategy, and it has exited 14 consumer markets outside of the United States since April 2021.

    “What’s been obvious to analysts for a long time is that Citi had become too unwieldy and too big to manage,” said Hugh Son, a banking reporter at CNBC. “Ultimately, a lot of the disparate parts overseas didn’t really have very many synergies between them.”
    Citigroup instead announced its plans to divert resources and double down on wealth management. It’s a tactical move that several other major banks like Bank of America and Wells Fargo have adopted in recent years.
    “It offers high returns and it creates growth opportunities in areas that are in the early stages of wealth generation like Asia and the Middle East,” according to Mike Mayo, a senior banking analyst at Wells Fargo Securities. “And it comes with less risk of big mishaps so the regulatory treatment is better.”
    Despite the shift in strategy, though, Citigroup’s investment in wealth management hasn’t started to pay off. In 2022, the firm expected global wealth management to generate a compound annual revenue growth in the high single digits to low teens.
    But, instead, Citigroup’s wealth management revenue fell 5% year over year in the second quarter of 2023.

    “It waits to be seen whether Citigroup will be successful,” said Mayo. “I’m skeptical, for as much as I am more positive about Citi’s strategy when it comes to their global payments or banking or markets business. I think it’s to be determined how this wealth management strategy plays out.”
    Citigroup declined to provide someone for CNBC to interview for this piece.
    Watch the video above to see how Citigroup is planning its comeback. More

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    Citigroup posts better-than-expected earnings and revenue, shares rise

    Citigroup shares rose in premarket trading after the bank reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped expectations.
    Despite the beat, Citi’s revenue fell 1% from a year ago as the decline in markets and investment banking businesses weighed on its results.
    “Amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, we continued to see the benefits of our diversified business model and strong balance sheet,” CEO Jane Fraser said in a statement.

    Citigroup shares rose in premarket trading on Friday after the bank reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped expectations.
    Despite the beat, Citi’s revenue fell 1% from a year ago as the decline in markets and investment banking businesses weighed on its results. Citi said the uncertain macroenvironment and low volatility impacted client activity and market performance.

    “Amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, we continued to see the benefits of our diversified business model and strong balance sheet,” CEO Jane Fraser said in a statement.
    Here’s how the company fared in the quarter compared with what analysts polled by Refinitiv expected from the banking giant.

    Earnings per share: $1.33 vs. $1.30
    Revenue: $19.44 billion vs. $19.29 billion

    Citigroup’s net income fell 36% to $2.9 billion, or $1.33 per share, from $4.5 billion, or $2.19 per share, last year, pressured by higher expenses, high cost of credit and lower revenue.
    “Markets revenues were down from a strong second quarter last year, as clients stood on the sidelines starting in April while the U.S. debt limit played out,” Fraser said. “In Banking, the long-awaited rebound in Investment Banking has yet to materialize, making for a disappointing quarter.”
    On the bright side, revenue from personal banking and wealth management increased 6% in the quarter to $6.4 billion driven by strong loan growth.

    Citi returned a total $2 billion to shareholders through common dividends and share buybacks in the second quarter.
    Shares of Citigroup climbed more than 1% in premarket trading. The stock is up 5.4% year to date, outperforming the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE), which is down 14.8%.
    Read the earnings release here.
    Correction: Citigroup’s net income fell 36% year over year. A previous version misstated the percentage. More

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    JPMorgan Chase beats analysts’ estimates on higher rates, better-than-expected bond trading

    JPMorgan Chase reported better-than-expected second quarter results Friday.
    The bank posted strong results even excluding the impact of its First Republic acquisition, which boosted per share earnings by 38 cents.
    Revenue rose 34% as JPMorgan took advantage of higher rates and solid loan growth.

    JPMorgan Chase reported second-quarter earnings Friday that topped analysts’ expectations as the company benefited from higher interest rates and better-than-expected bond trading.
    Here’s what the company reported:

    Earnings: $4.37 per share adjusted vs. $4 per share Refinitiv estimate
    Revenue: $42.4 billion vs. $38.96 billion estimate

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    Net income surged 67% to $14.5 billion, or $4.75 per share. When excluding the impact of its First Republic acquisition in early May — a $2.7 billion “bargain purchase gain” from the government-brokered takeover, as well as loan reserve builds and securities losses tied to the purchase — earnings were $4.37 per share.
    Revenue rose 34% to $42.4 billion as JPMorgan took advantage of higher rates and solid loan growth. Revenue gains were fueled by a 44% jump in net interest income to $21.9 billion, which topped the StreetAccount estimate by roughly $700 million. Average loans climbed 13%, while deposits fell 6%.
    “The U.S. economy continues to be resilient,” CEO Jamie Dimon said in the release. “Consumer balance sheets remain healthy, and consumers are spending, albeit a little more slowly. Labor markets have softened somewhat, but job growth remains strong.”

    Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., speaks during the Bloomberg Global Business Forum in New York, on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2019.
    Tiffany Hagler-Geard | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Dimon added that there were “salient risks in the immediate view” including dwindling consumer balances, the risk that interest rates would be higher for longer than expected, and geopolitical tension including the Ukraine war.
    JPMorgan increased its guidance for 2023 net interest income to $87 billion, which is $3 billion higher than its guidance from May and the bank’s third increase to its NII forecast this year.

    Shares of the bank climbed more than 2% in premarket trading.

    Signs of strength

    JPMorgan’s retailing banking division was its main source of strength this quarter. Profit surged 71% in the business to $5.3 billion on a 37% jump in revenue.
    The bank’s results also benefited from better-than-expected trading and investment banking activity. In May, the bank said revenue from the Wall Street activities was headed for a 15% decline from a year earlier.
    But fixed income trading revenue only dipped 3% to $4.6 billion, topping the StreetAccount estimate by nearly $500 million. Equity trading revenue of $2.5 billion edged out the $2.41 billion estimate. And investment banking revenue of $1.5 billion topped the $1.42 billion estimate.
    “The results were outstanding and really showed strength across the board,” said Octavio Marenzi, CEO of consultancy Opimas. “Consumer banking was particularly strong, but even investment banking, which has been a problem child over the past year or so, is starting to show signs of life.”
    JPMorgan has been a standout recently on several fronts. Whether it’s about deposits, funding costs or net interest income — all hot-button topics since the regional banking crisis began in March — the bank has outperformed smaller peers.
    That’s helped shares of the bank climb 11% so far this year as of Thursday, compared with the 16% decline of the KBW Bank Index. When JPMorgan last reported results in April, its shares had their biggest earnings-day increase in two decades.

    First Republic impact

    This time around, JPMorgan had the benefit of owning First Republic for most of the quarter.
    The acquisition, which added roughly $203 billion in loans and securities and $92 billion in deposits, helped cushion JPMorgan against some of the headwinds faced by the industry. Banks are losing low-cost deposits as customers find higher-yielding places to park their cash, causing the industry’s funding costs to rise.
    That’s pressuring the industry’s profit margins. Last month, several regional banks disclosed lower-than-expected interest revenue, and analysts expect more banks to do the same in coming weeks. On top of that, banks are expected to disclose a slowdown in loan growth and rising costs related to commercial real estate debt, all of which squeeze banks’ bottom lines.
    Analysts will want to hear what Dimon has to say about the health of the economy and his expectations for banking regulation and consolidation.
    Wells Fargo also reported earnings Friday, and Citigroup results are on deck. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report Tuesday. Goldman Sachs discloses results Wednesday.
    This story is developing. Please check back for updates. More