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Protests have a funny way of kicking off when the mercury soars. The summer of 1967 is best known as “the summer of love”. It was a time when hippies flocked to America’s west coast to protest war, take drugs and peace out. But it was also a time when more than 150 race riots struck everywhere from Atlanta to Boston amid brutal temperatures, earning the period another name: “The long, hot summer.” As the world warms, the link between heat and social disturbance is an increasingly important one and, this summer, an especially concerning one. Each upheaval has its own causes, but certain factors make disturbances more likely everywhere. Surging temperatures, rising food prices and cuts to public spending—three of the strongest predictors of turmoil—have driven estimates of the potential for unrest to unprecedented highs in recent months. These estimates will probably rise higher still this summer. Temperatures are unlikely to have peaked. Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative to export supplies from Ukraine and India’s recent ban on rice exports may raise the price of staples. Social unrest is already bubbling in Kenya, India, Israel and South Africa. The summer of our discontentIn the first week of July the mean global temperature crossed the 17°C threshold for the first time, reaching a steamy 17.08°C. The average global temperature for the month as a whole is poised to be warmer than the hottest previous single-day average on record. This sort of weather spells trouble. In a study published in Science, Marshall Burke of Stanford University and Solomon Hsiang and Edward Miguel of the University of California, Berkeley, show that an uptick in temperature of just one standard deviation above the long-term mean—the kind of deviation a statistician expects to observe about once every six days—drives an increase in the frequency of unrest of almost 15%.In the eight weeks since the start of June, the average global temperature has simmered at a consistent four to six standard deviations above levels recorded from 1980 to 2000. Our rough calculations, which extrapolate the relationship indicated in the Science study, suggest that record temperatures in June and July could have raised the global risk of violent social unrest by somewhere in the region of 50%. The effects of El Niño, a weather pattern that brings warmer temperatures worldwide and recently got under way, are likely to produce a scorching end to the northern summer and start to the southern summer. Indeed, the phenomenon has coincided with more than one-fifth of all civil conflicts that have taken place since 1950. Verisk Maplecroft, a risk-intelligence company, maintains a civil-unrest index that forecasts the potential for business disruption caused by social disturbances, including violent upheaval, on a country-by-country basis. According to the firm’s estimates, the risk of global social unrest in the third quarter of 2023 is the highest since the index was created in 2017. That is because of both heat and the higher cost of living, says Jimena Blanco, the firm’s lead analyst. “High rates of food price inflation are a particular risk,” she warns.Global inflation seems to have passed a peak, and international grain prices are lower than last year’s high. But that does not mean prices paid by consumers have stopped rising. In June annual food-price inflation was 17% in Britain, 14% in the eu and nearing 10% in Canada and Japan. It is higher still in many developing economies, especially those in Africa. Food-price inflation is close to 25% in Nigeria, 30% in Ethiopia and 65% in Egypt (the highest rate in the country’s history).Bread-and-butter issuesLower wholesale prices should in time feed through to consumers. But Russia’s choice to scupper the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17th, which was followed by four nights of attacks on the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk and Odessa in the Black Sea, has disturbed food markets, pushing prices in the opposite direction. Dry conditions elsewhere are also likely to exacerbate difficulties. Yields of Australian barley and wheat are forecast to decline by 34% and 30% this harvest. Stocks of American maize, wheat and sorghum are down by 6%, 17% and 51%. Last year these countries were the world’s two biggest exporters of the cereals by value.More concerning still are events in India, which produces roughly 40% of global rice exports, and has suffered from debilitating rains this year. On July 20th the government responded by banning exports of all non-Basmati rice from the country. This will reduce global rice exports by about 10%, with almost immediate effect. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates that together maize, rice and wheat provide more than two-fifths of the world’s calorific intake. Among the world’s poorest populations, the figure may rise to four-fifths. If prices do not start to fall soon, people will only get hungrier. And hungrier people are more likely to hit the streets.Fiscal austerity may further destabilise things. Many governments have committed to raising taxes or cutting expenditures in order to bring debt under control after lavish spending during covid-19. Jacopo Ponticelli of Northwestern University and Hans-Joachim Voth of the University of Zurich investigated almost a century of data from 25 European economies. They discovered that each additional 5% cut in government spending increases the frequency of social unrest by 28%. Social upheaval can have a scarring effect on economies, too. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Samuel Pienknagura and Luca Ricci, all of the imf, recently looked at 35 years of quarterly data from 130 countries. They found that even 18 months after a moderate episode of social unrest a country’s gdp remains 0.2% lower. By contrast, 18 months after a major episode of unrest a country’s gdp remains 1% lower. Countries beyond the rich world have a more concerning outlook. The damage done by unrest is about twice as large in emerging markets as in advanced economies, according to the imf researchers, with lower business and consumer confidence, and heightened uncertainty, exacerbating the much greater risk of sudden capital flight. This bodes ill for what is set to be a year of rising food prices, boiling weather and spending cuts. Expect a long, hot, uncomfortable summer. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter. More

UOB Q2 core net profit jumped 35% to 1.5 billion Singapore dollars from a year ago
UOB Q2 net interest income for the quarter grew 31% from a year ago
Loans will be repriced, UOB will be able to manage our cost of funding a lot stronger mainly because of the flight to quality for the Singapore depositors: CFO Lee Wai Fai

Singapore’s United Overseas Bank is expecting “some upside” in interest income in the next quarter, after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a fresh rate hike overnight.
UOB’s core net profit jumped 35% to 1.5 billion Singapore dollars ($1.13 billion) in the second quarter from a year ago. Its net interest income for the quarter grew 31% from a year ago — boosted by robust net interest margin that expanded 50 basis points to 2.13% on higher interest rates, the Singapore-based lender said in a statement released early Thursday.

Net interest margin, a measure of lending profitability for banks, is the difference between interest earned and interest paid.
“We are hopeful that [net interest margins] will stay for the following quarter, with some upside biasness following this morning’s announcement by the Fed,” UOB chief financial officer Lee Wai Fai told CNBC’s JP Ong on “Street Signs Asia” in an exclusive interview Thursday.
Overnight on Wall Street, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, taking its benchmark borrowing costs to a target range of 5.25%-5.5% — the highest level in more than 22 years.
Financial markets had completely priced in the widely anticipated move. The midpoint of that target range would be the highest level for the benchmark rate since early 2001.

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Shares of UOB, one of Singapore’s largest lenders, rose 0.7% to a three-month high on Thursday.

The stock was broadly in line with the benchmark Straits Times Index in Singapore, and slightly below the 1% gain for the MSCI Asia ex-Japan.

Forward guidance

“We think that loans will be repriced and that we will be able to manage our cost of funding a lot stronger mainly because of the flight to quality for the Singapore depositors,” Lee said.
Southeast Asia’s third-largest lender said its loan-related and wealth management fees eased as investor sentiments remained subdued. These declines were partly offset by an increase in card fees, the bank added.
On Thursday, UOB lowered its guidance for fee income guidance to a high single digit growth, from a double-digit growth projection at its first quarter earnings announcement.

The United Overseas Bank logo is displayed atop UOB Plaza One in the central business district on February 23, 2021 in Singapore.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

The bank’s projection for low to mid single-digit loan growth remains unchanged.
It now expects credit cost to hit around 25 basis points for the rest of the year, a slight increase from the previous projection of 20 to 25 basis points.
“We are hopeful that despite a challenging first half, second half will be a lot better. And with some of the reopening of the economy, some of the trade-related activities will pick up,” Lee told CNBC.
“We are expecting to see activity coming back, especially now people got used to the high interest rate environment … so we see some of those customers coming back into the market,” he said.
UOB is the first of Singapore’s three major banks to report its quarterly earnings. Singapore’s largest lender DBS will report Aug. 3, followed by Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp. on Aug. 4. More

BlackRock has joined forces with the financial services arm of India’s tycoon Mukesh Ambani in what’s been referred to as a “major move.”
BlackRock and Jio Financial Services, each plan to invest up to $150 million in the 50-50 venture, according to a statement on Wednesday.
The venture called Jio BlackRock “will place the combined strength and scale of both of our companies in the hands of millions of investors in India,” it added.

The BlackRock logo is displayed at their headquarters on November 14, 2022 in New York City. BlackRock and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund signed an agreement to jointly explore infrastructure projects in the Middle East.
Leonardo Munoz | Getty Images

BlackRock has joined forces with the financial services arm of India’s tycoon Mukesh Ambani in what’s been referred to as a “major move.”
This paves the way for the world’s largest money manager to gain a foothold into the country’s fast growing asset management market.

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BlackRock, which had $9.4 trillion assets under management at the end of June, together with Jio Financial Services, each plan to invest up to $150 million in the 50-50 venture, according to a statement on Wednesday.
The joint venture will be called Jio BlackRock.
“Today marks a major move for BlackRock as we work to expand our footprint through a forthcoming joint venture in India with Jio Financial Services, a company built by Reliance Industries Limited,” said Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, in a post on his LinkedIn page.
Mukesh Ambani is the founder and chairman of Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries, the country’s largest listed company by market share. The billionaire mogul has been named India’s richest man in Forbes list with a net worth of $90.6 billion.

The partnership will “deliver our combined expertise and scale to unlock the power of investing for millions of people in India,” added Fink.

The convergence of rising affluence, favorable demographics and digital transformation across industries is reshaping the market in incredible ways.

Rachel Lord
head of Asia-Pacific, BlackRock

The news comes just days after Jio Financial Services was spun off from parent Reliance Industries conglomerate, according to Reuters.
The “digital-first” service will deliver “tech-enabled access to affordable, innovative investment solutions” for India’s investors, the statement said.
“The partnership will leverage BlackRock’s deep expertise in investment and risk management along with the technology capability and deep market expertise of JFS to drive digital delivery of products,” Hitesh Sethia, CEO of Jio Financial Services said.
The launch of the joint venture is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

Huge potential

The latest move is BlackRock’s second attempt to gain entry into India’s burgeoning asset management industry.
In 2018, the U.S. investment management firm exited India after being in business for a decade by selling its 40% stake in an asset management venture to partner DSP Group.
India represents an “enormously important opportunity,” said Rachel Lord, head of Asia-Pacific at BlackRock, in the statement.
Assets under management of Indian mutual funds doubled to 44.39 trillion rupees ($542 billion) in the five years to June this year, according to estimates from the Association of Mutual Funds in India.
“The convergence of rising affluence, favorable demographics and digital transformation across industries is reshaping the market in incredible ways,” Lord noted, adding the partnership will “revolutionize India’s asset management industry.” More

China-focused venture capital funds raised $2.7 billion in the second quarter, a drop of more than 50% from the first quarter, Preqin said.
China-focused venture capital and other private investment funds have seen such a slow start to the year they’re expected to drag down Asia-Pacific fundraising to the lowest in ten years, the report said.
Reflecting a global trend in falling valuations, China-based fashion startup Shein raised $2 billion in the second quarter — but at a valuation of $66 billion versus $100 billion just over a year ago, Preqin said.

Jason Lee | Reuters

BEIJING — China-focused venture capital and other private investment funds have had a slow start to the year and are set to drag down Asia-Pacific fundraising to the lowest in 10 years.
That’s according to a second-quarter update Thursday from Preqin, an alternative assets research firm. Alternative assets include venture capital, but not publicly traded stocks and bonds.

“Given the ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions related to China, investors continue to maintain a cautious stance,” Angela Lai, vice president and head of APAC and valuations, research insights, at Preqin, said in a statement.
“We currently don’t see investors returning in large numbers to add allocations specifically to the China market.”
China’s economic rebound from the pandemic has slowed in recent months. Challenges for the venture capital world go back further.
The fallout around Didi’s U.S. initial public offering in the summer of 2021 and increased regulatory scrutiny from the U.S. and China paused what was once a thriving international investment trend.
The U.S. is also considering restrictions on investment in the most advanced Chinese technology.

China-focused venture capital funds raised $2.7 billion in the second quarter, a drop of more than 50% from the first quarter, Preqin said. That dragged down overall VC fundraising in Asia-Pacific to $4.5 billion in the second quarter, the lowest in at least five years, the report said.
“Any time you add an additional element of regulatory risk, or the government may shift gears and change course, you’re adding more risk to the equation than the average venture capitalist wants to take,” said Andrew J. Sherman, Washington, D.C.-based partner at Brown Rudnick.
Still, “no sophisticated U.S. investor thinks they can make all their money just investing in the U.S.,” he said, noting firms are still looking for opportunities in China and India to maximize returns.
Preqin’s analysts still see “China’s economy as holding the key to a full recovery” in Asia-Pacific given “its broad range of investment opportunities and deep capital markets, and significant influence as the top trading partner for many APAC countries.”
In China, new rules for private investment funds are set to take effect Sept. 1, with a stated goal of “guiding” venture capital investment for long-term investment in “innovative startups.” That’s according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

Falling valuations

In private equity, China-focused funds are having an “even more challenging time” this year, Lai said, adding that in 2022, they raised just under 12% of what was raised in 2021.
China-focused private equity firms’ assets under management also declined for the first time in at least five years, Preqin said, noting it was “a development worth monitoring.”
Lai said it’s a result of new capital coming in more slowly than the firms are liquidating existing investments — and if those investments’ valuations decline.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

Reflecting a global trend in falling valuations, China-based fashion startup Shein raised $2 billion in the second quarter — but at a valuation of $66 billion versus $100 billion just over a year ago, Preqin said.

Going to Japan

Money is meanwhile flowing to Japan.
Asia regional funds have grown their share of APAC private equity fundraising in the second-quarter, with Japan-focused Advantage Partners raising the largest amount at just under $1 billion, Preqin said.
Japan had the highest private equity deal-making in Asia-Pacific for two straight quarters, while deals in greater China dropped by more than 55% in the second quarter from the first, the report said.

We expect an increasing focus on advanced technologies across APAC as the technology race between China and the US intensifies.

“This market is often perceived as lower risk, with relatively stable, albeit sometimes lower, returns. The depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has further added to its appeal to foreign investors, particularly real estate investors.”
Notably, U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett increased investments in Japan this year.
In other Asia-Pacific deal activity in the second quarter, Preqin noted Japanese and South Korean private-equity backed deals in semiconductors and the electric car supply chain.
“We expect an increasing focus on advanced technologies across APAC as the technology race between China and the US intensifies,” the report said. “This will catalyze more investments along these value chains, implying that opportunities for private investors could arise.” More

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It’s vital for investors to manage risk right now no matter where interest rates go, according to CME Group CEO Terry Duffy.
“Everybody that I’ve talked to over the last year has been dead wrong when it comes to what the Fed was going to do,” Duffy told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Wednesday. “It’s really hard to predict what the Fed is ultimately going to do.”

Duffy’s call followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike rates by a quarter point to a 22-year high. It’s the central bank’s 11th rate hike since March 2022.
“Everybody said the Fed would raise 25 basis points, 50 basis points, 100 basis points and stop,” he said. “If you would have managed your risk based on what you thought the Fed was going to do or not be doing, you would be out of business like we’ve seen a lot of the smaller banks.” A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Duffy added that inflation is still unpredictable and critically important to positioning.
“People need to manage that risk because margins are thin,” he said.
The markets barely flinched after the latest Fed decision. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the 13th day in a row for its longest win streak since 1987. The blue chip index gained 82 points to close at 35,520. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq closed slightly lower.

“Boy, if you’re going to try to sit around and try to make a prediction, sometimes it’s better instead of talking the markets, you should listen to the markets,” Duffy said. “They’ll tell you what they want to do.”

CME earnings beat

Duffy’s Fed reaction came hours after his company reported that both quarterly earnings and revenue beat estimates.
The CME Group, which is world’s largest futures exchange, reported earnings per share of $2.30 —10 cents above the the Refinitiv estimate. It reported revenue of $1.36 billion versus $1.34 billion expected by Refinitiv.
Shares rallied almost 4% on Wednesday and are now up more than 11% over the past month.
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Meta headquarters in Menlo Park, California, US, on Thursday, July 21, 2022.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines after the bell: 
Meta Platforms – Shares of Meta Platforms jumped nearly 6% on stronger-than-expected quarterly results. The social media company issued optimistic sales guidance for the third quarter and showed an 11% uptick in revenue.

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4 hours ago

Chipotle Mexican Grill — The burrito chain’s stock tumbled 9% in extended trading after sales fell short of Wall Street expectations. Chipotle reported adjusted earnings of $12.65 a share on $2.51 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected EPS of $12.31 and revenues of $2.53 billion.
Imax — Imax shares added 5% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results. The entertainment technology company reported adjusted earnings of 26 cents a share. That topped the 16 cents expected by analysts, per Refinitiv. Revenue came in at $98 million, above the $86.6 billion expected.
Lam Research – Shares of the semiconductor firm got a more than 2% boost after the company reported a strong quarter. Lam posted adjusted earnings of $5.98 per share, beating estimates by 91 cents per share, per Refinitiv. Revenue of $3.21 billion beat expectations of $3.13 billion. Financial guidance topped estimates as well.
ServiceNow — ServiceNow dropped 3% despite reporting a beat on the top and bottom lines. The cloud computing company posted second-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.37 per share on revenue of $2.15 billion. Analysts had expected per-share earnings of $2.05 on revenue of $2.13 billion. The company also unveiled new generative artificial intelligence tools.
eBay – The e-commerce stock slid about 5% after eBay issued weak guidance for the current quarter. The company said it anticipates third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 96 cents to $1.01 per share, while analysts polled by FactSet anticipated $1.02 in earnings. The company posted $1.03 in adjusted earnings per share on revenue of $2.54 billion. Analysts called for earnings of 99 cents per share on revenue of $2.51 billion, according to Refinitiv.

Sunnova Energy – Shares of the solar company slid more than 7% after hours following weaker-than-expected financial results for the second quarter. Sunnova posted a wider-than-expected loss of 74 cents per share, while analysts expected a loss of 42 cents per share, according to FactSet. Revenue came in at $166.4 million compared to expectations of $195.5 million.
Align Technology – The orthodontics company saw its shares pop 12% after it posted adjusted earnings of $2.22 per share for the second quarter, beating estimates of $2.03 per share, according to Refinitiv. Revenue for the quarter also topped estimates, and revenue guidance for the year was above analyst expectations.
Mattel – Shares of the toymaker were flat. Mattel announced the departure of Richard Dickson, chief operating officer, who is leaving to become CEO of Gap. The company also posted second-quarter adjusted earnings of 10 cents a share on revenue of $1.09 billion. Analysts called for a per-share loss of 2 cents and revenue of $1 billion, according to Refinitiv.
Seagate Technology — Shares fell 2% in extended trading. The data storage company posted revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter that came in at $1.60 billion, while analysts called for revenue of $1.68 billion, per FactSet.
L3Harris Technologies — The aerospace and defense stock fell more than 2% even after earnings came in above expectations. L3Harris reported adjusted earnings of $2.97 a share on $4.69 billion in revenue, and lifted earnings and revenue guidance. Analysts anticipated $2.94 in EPS on revenue of $4.37 billion for the latest quarter, according to Refinitiv. Aerojet Rocketdyne shares added more than 1% on news the Federal Trade Commission will not block its acquisition by L3Harris.
— CNBC’s Tanaya Macheel, Sarah Min and Darla Mercado contributed reporting More

It was never in doubt. In the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week, investors assigned a probability of nearly 99% to a decision by the central bank to raise interest rates once again. On July 26th policymakers duly fulfilled those expectations, with their 11th increase in 12 meetings, together making for America’s sharpest course of monetary tightening in four decades. The central bank’s next steps, however, are clouded by uncertainty.Some economists are convinced that this will be the Fed’s last rate rise in this cycle. Inflation has come down from its highs in 2022, with consumer prices rising just 3% year-on-year in June. Core inflation—which strips out volatile food and energy costs—has been a little more stubborn, but even it has started to soften, in a sign that underlying price pressures are easing. This opens a pathway for the Fed to relent, hopefully guiding America to a much-discussed soft landing. Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley, a bank, expects an “extended hold” for the Fed, presaging a rate cut at the start of next year. Others are not so sure. Inflation has consistently wrong-footed optimists over the past couple of years. Were, for instance, energy prices to rally, consumers and businesses could quickly revise up their expectations for inflation, nudging the Fed towards another rate increase. If an incipient rebound in housing prices gathers pace, that would also fuel concerns. Vigour in the labour market adds to the worries, because fast-rising wages feed into inflation. Remarkably, the Fed’s aggressive actions have barely affected American workers thus far: the unemployment rate today is 3.6%, identical to its level in March 2022 when the Fed raised rates for the first time in this cycle (see chart). The pace of tightening would normally be expected to drive up unemployment. Instead, the recovery from the covid-19 pandemic, including an increase in the number of willing workers, seems to have cushioned the economy.Opposing views among economists are mirrored within the Fed itself. For the past two years America’s central bankers have spoken in similar terms about the peril of inflation, and have been nearly unanimous when it comes to big rate moves. In recent months, however, divisions have surfaced. Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, has come to represent the more hawkish voices. This month he warned that the central bank could continue raising rates until there is sustained improvement in inflation, dismissing the over-optimism bred by the weaker-than-expected price figures for June. “One data point does not make a trend,” he warned. At the other end of the spectrum is Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, who said even prior to the latest rate increase that the central bank could stop hiking. “Gradual disinflation will continue,” he assured listeners in late June.Even if the latest rate increase does end up marking the peak for the Fed, Jerome Powell, its chairman, has maintained a hawkish tilt in his pronouncements. “What our eyes are telling us is that policy has not been restrictive enough for long enough,” he told a press conference following the rate hike. Financial conditions have loosened in recent months. The s&p 500, an index of America’s biggest stocks, is up nearly one-fifth from its lows in March, when a handful of regional banks collapsed. With his sterner tone, Mr Powell may want to restrain investors from getting ahead of themselves, which could add to inflationary momentum.Central bankers wanting to preserve their reputations as inflation-fighters may prefer to err towards toughness. Steven Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank, likens the Fed to a weather forecaster who thinks there is a 30% chance of rain. It still makes sense to highlight the potential for wet weather, because predicting sun but getting rain is perceived as worse than predicting rain and ending up with sun.In practice, the Fed is sure to be flexible, reacting to economic data. It can look north of the American border for an example of the impossibility of maintaining a fixed policy stance. The Bank of Canada had stopped its rate-rise cycle in January, thinking that inflation had crested. But in June it was forced to resume tightening because economic growth had remained too hot, and inflation too sticky, for comfort.Ultimately, though, there are no risk-free choices for the Fed. What is seen as the more doveish option—holding rates steady for the rest of this year—will in fact take on an increasingly hawkish hue if inflation does continue to recede. Unchanged nominal rates would be ever more restrictive in real terms (assuming that inflationary expectations diminish alongside waning price pressures). In such a scenario central bankers wishing to maintain their current policy stance should therefore think about cutting rates (see chart). When inflation was sky-high, the Fed’s task was tough yet its decisions quite straightforward: officials did not really have much choice but to raise rates. From here on, its task looks easier but its decisions more fraught. ■ More

The Federal Reserve approved a much-anticipated interest rate hike that takes benchmark borrowing costs to their highest level in more than 22 years.
The quarter percentage point increase will bring the fed funds rate to a target range of 5.25%-5.5%.
While policymakers indicated at the June meeting that two rate hikes are coming this year, markets are pricing in a better-than-even chance that there won’t be any more moves this year.
Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will make data-driven decisions on a “meeting-by-meeting” basis.

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved a much-anticipated interest rate hike that takes benchmark borrowing costs to their highest level in more than 22 years.
In a move that financial markets had completely priced in, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 5.25%-5.5%. The midpoint of that target range would be the highest level for the benchmark rate since early 2001.

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7 hours ago

2 days ago

Markets were watching for signs that the hike could be the last before Fed officials take a break to watch how the previous increases are impacting economic conditions. While policymakers indicated at the June meeting that two rate rises are coming this year, markets have been pricing in a better-than-even chance that there won’t be any more moves this year.
During a news conference, Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, but hitting the Fed’s 2% target “has a long way to go.” Still, he seemed to leave room to potentially hold rates steady at the Fed’s next meeting in September.
“I would say it’s certainly possible that we will raise funds again at the September meeting if the data warranted,” said Powell. “And I would also say it’s possible that we would choose to hold steady and we’re going to be making careful assessments, as I said, meeting by meeting.”
Powell said the FOMC will be assessing “the totality of the incoming data” as well as the implications for economic activity and inflation.
Markets initially bounced following the meeting but ended mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its streak of higher closings, rising by 82 points, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were little changed. Treasury yields moved lower.

“It is time for the Fed to give the economy time to absorb the impact of past rate hikes,” said Joe Brusuelas, U.S. chief economist at RSM. “With the Fed’s latest rate increase of 25 basis points now in the books, we think that improvement in the underlying pace of inflation, cooler job creation and modest growth are creating the conditions where the Fed can effectively end its rate hike campaign.”
The post-meeting statement, though, offered only a vague reference to what will guide the FOMC’s future moves.
“The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” the statement said in a line that was tweaked from the previous months’ communication. That echoes a data-dependent approach – as opposed to a set schedule – that virtually all central bank officials have embraced in recent public statements.
 The hike received unanimous approval from voting committee members.
 The only other change of note in the statement was an upgrade of economic growth to “moderate” from “modest” at the June meeting despite expectations for at least a mild recession ahead. The statement again described inflation as “elevated” and job gains as “robust.”
The increase is the 11th time the FOMC has raised rates in a tightening process that began in March 2022. The committee decided to skip the June meeting as it assessed the impact that the hikes have had.
Since then, Powell has said he still thinks inflation is too high, and in late June said he expected more “restriction” on monetary policy, a term that implies more rate increases.
The fed funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending. But it feeds through to many forms of consumer debt such as mortgages, credit cards, and auto and personal loans.
The Fed has not been this aggressive with rate hikes since the early 1980s, when it also was battling extraordinarily high inflation and a sputtering economy.
News lately on the inflation front has been encouraging. The consumer price index rose 3% on a 12-month basis in June, after running at a 9.1% rate a year ago. Consumers also are getting more optimistic about where prices are headed, with the latest University of Michigan sentiment survey pointing to an outlook for a 3.4% pace in the coming year.
However, CPI is running at a 4.8% rate when excluding food and energy. Moreover, the Cleveland Fed’s CPI tracker is indicating a 3.4% annual headline rate and 4.9% core rate in July. The Fed’s preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 3.8% on headline and 4.6% on core for May.
All of those figures, while well below the worst levels of the current cycle, are running above the Fed’s 2% target.
Economic growth has been surprisingly resilient despite the rate hikes.
Second-quarter GDP growth is tracking at a 2.4% annualized rate, according to the Atlanta Fed. Many economists are still expecting a recession over the next 12 months, but those predictions so far have proved at least premature. GDP rose 2% in the first quarter following a large upward revision to initial estimates.
Employment also has held up remarkably well. Nonfarm payrolls have expanded by nearly 1.7 million in 2023, and the unemployment rate in June was a relatively benign 3.6% – the same level as a year ago.
“It has been my view consistently, that … we will be able to achieve inflation moving back down to our target without the kind of really significant downturn that results in high levels of job losses,” Powell said.
Along with the rate hike, the committee indicated it will continue to cut the bond holdings on its balance sheet, which peaked at $9 trillion before the Fed began its quantitative tightening efforts. The balance sheet is now at $8.32 trillion as the Fed has allowed up to $95 billion a month in maturing bond proceeds to roll off. More