Finance

Federal Reserve officials at their September meeting agreed to cut interest rates but were unsure how aggressive to get.
Minutes released Wednesday indicated that “a substantial majority of participants” favored cutting by half a percentage point, through some expressed misgivings about going that large.
Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected.

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials at their September meeting agreed to cut interest rates but were unsure how aggressive to get, ultimately deciding on a half percentage point move in an effort to balance confidence on inflation with worries over the labor market, according to minutes released Wednesday.
The meeting summary detailed reasons that policymakers decided to approve a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points for the first time in more than four years, and showed members divided over the economic outlook.

Some officials hoped for a smaller, quarter percentage point reduction as they sought assurance that inflation was moving sustainably lower and were less worried about the jobs picture.
Ultimately, only one Federal Open Market Committee member, Governor Michelle Bowman, voted against the half-point cut, saying she would have preferred a quarter point. But the minutes indicated that others also favored a smaller move. It was the first time a governor had dissented on an interest rate vote since 2005 for a Fed known for its unity on monetary policy.
“Some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes stated.
“Several participants noted that a 25 basis point reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalization that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved,” the document added. “A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization.”
Markets moved little following the release, with major averages continuing on pace for big gains.

Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected.
In September, nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000, much more than expected, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%.
The data has helped cement expectations that while the Fed likely is in the early days of an easing cycle, future cuts likely would not be as aggressive as the September move. Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials in recent days have backed the expected 50 basis points in reductions by the end of 2024 as indicated by the “dot plot” unofficial forecast released after the September meeting.
The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came “in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks” against the labor market. The minutes noted that “a substantial majority of participants” favored the larger move, without specifying how many were opposed. The term “participants” suggests involvement of the full FOMC rather than just the 12 voters.
The minutes also noted that some members favored a reduction at the July meeting that never materialized.
Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move.
At his post-meeting news conference, Powell used the term “recalibration” to sum up the decision to cut, and the term also appears in the minutes.
“Participants emphasized that it was important to communicate that the recalibration of the stance of policy at this meeting should not be interpreted as evidence of a less favorable economic outlook or as a signal that the pace of policy easing would be more rapid than participants’ assessments of the appropriate path,” the minutes stated.
Such a recalibration would bring policy “into better alignment with recent indicators of inflation and the labor market.” Supporters of the 50 basis point cut “also emphasized that such a move would help sustain the strength in the economy and the labor market while continuing to promote progress on inflation, and would reflect the balance of risks.”
Under normal circumstances, the Fed prefers to cut in quarter-point increments. Previously, the central bank moved by half a point only during Covid and, before that, the 2008 financial crisis.
Market pricing is pointing to the fed funds rate ending 2025 in the 3.25%-3.5% range, about in line with the median projection of a 3.4% rate, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch. Futures markets previously had been indicating a more aggressive path and in fact now are pricing in about a 1-in-5 chance that the Fed does not cut at its Nov. 6-7 meeting.
The bond market, though, has been acting differently. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.

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The average American is living longer.
But older people live fewer years in good health. Their “health span” is shrinking.
Chronic medical conditions are generally associated with higher healthcare expenses.

Momo Productions | Digitalvision | Getty Images

First, the good news: Americans are living longer than they used to.
Now, the bad news: Older Americans are spending more years in poor health. That dynamic often comes with negative financial consequences, medical and financial experts say.

Since 1960, the average U.S. life span has increased to 77.5 from roughly 70 years old, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But “health spans” are simultaneously shrinking.
A health span is the number of years older people spend in fundamentally good health, said Susan Roberts, a professor of medicine and epidemiology and senior associate dean for foundational research at Dartmouth College.

Today, the average person spends about 10 years with chronic ailments like diabetes, cancer, arthritis, cardiovascular disease, dementia, cataracts or osteoporosis — roughly double the duration in the 1960s, Roberts said.
As a result, there’s a “widening gap” between one’s life and health spans, she said.

This is because medicine has gotten better at keeping sick people alive, though not necessarily treating them, Roberts said. Obesity, which is an underlying cause of many chronic diseases, is also more widespread, she said. Obesity affects 42% of U.S. adults, according to CDC data released in 2021.

How health impacts wealth

Fatcamera | E+ | Getty Images

The concept of a health span is “increasingly important” for a household’s finances, said Stacy Francis, a certified financial planner based in New York and member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.
Adults are spending more time “living a life where they’re not in their best state,” said Francis, president and CEO of Francis Financial. “And it results in significant expenses.”
About 90% of the nation’s $4.5 trillion in annual health care costs are for people with chronic diseases and mental health conditions, according to the CDC.
Medical costs get “worse and worse” once people have a chronic ailment, Roberts said.
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The average 65-year-old retiring this year will spend about $165,000 in out-of-pocket health and medical expenses in retirement, up 5% from 2023, according to Fidelity Investments.
Out-of-pocket treatment costs and early retirements due to poor health are two big ways chronic conditions impact households financially, experts said.
Early retirement might mean claiming Social Security earlier than expected — perhaps resulting in a lower monthly benefit, said Carolyn McClanahan, a physician and CFP based in Jacksonville, Florida.
“A person’s health directly impacts their wealth — and this connection becomes even more acute as people age,” Susan Silberman, senior director of research and evaluation at the National Council on Aging, said in a 2022 briefing.

Of course, this isn’t to say healthy people avoid significant medical expenses.
They may ultimately pay more over the long term relative to an unhealthy individual if they need long-term care, for example, which can be costly and more likely with age, said McClanahan, the founder of Life Planning Partners and a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.
Plus, healthy people experience more “go-go” years, meaning they can travel and spend on fun things, she said.

Invest in yourself

“When you are in your 40s and 50s, it’s the point of no return,” McClanahan said.
If adults don’t start tending to their health by this age, they become more susceptible to chronic diseases like diabetes and high blood pressure, which can lead to sudden issues like strokes and heart attacks, she said.
Treat purchases of healthy food, gym memberships or exercise classes as an investment in yourself, said Francis. Prioritize the spending on your health and, if it feels like too much money, try to cut back on spending that “doesn’t increase your health span,” she said.

“I think of that like an investment I put in my 401(k),” Francis said.
“Those extra dollars … will add years to your life and you’ll make up for it,” she said.
More than half of people can reverse a diabetes diagnosis by losing 10% of their weight within the first seven years of that diagnosis, Roberts said.
The “biggest tragedy” of chronic ailments is that “they’re preventable,” Roberts said. A few dietary tweaks — eliminating sugary drinks like soda and juice, and eating small, healthy snacks like an apple — can make a “dramatic difference,” she said.
“Learning to like healthy foods is actually not that difficult,” Roberts said. “Practice it for a couple weeks and be patient with yourself.” More

“Candidly, there’s a lot of success theater out there” when it comes to applying artificial intelligence in banking, HSBC’s head of generative AI said at a tech event in London this week.
Achtner’s comments come as other figures in the financial services sector — particularly leaders at startup firms — have made bold statements about the level of overall efficiency gains and cost reductions they are seeing as a result of investments in AI.
Nathalie Oestmann, head of NV Ltd, said that as long as people are “trained appropriately” and banks and other financial services firm can “reinvent” themselves in the new AI era, “it will just help us to evolve.”

Big technology companies are betting that a new wave of smaller, more precise AI models will be more effective when it comes to the needs of businesses in sectors like law, finance, and health care.
Jaap Arriens | NurPhoto via Getty Images

LONDON — Increasingly many financial services firms are touting the benefits of artificial intelligence when it comes to boosting productivity and overall operational efficiency.

Despite bold statements, a lot of companies are failing to produce tangible results, according to Edward J Achtner, the head of generative AI for U.K. banking giant HSBC.
“Candidly, there’s a lot of success theater out there,” Achtner said on a panel at the CogX Global Leadership Summit alongside Ranil Boteju — a fellow AI leader at rival British bank Lloyds Banking Group — and Nathalie Oestmann, head of NV Ltd, an advisory firm for venture capital funds.
“We have to be very clinical in terms of what we choose to do, and where we choose to do it,” Achtner told attendees of the event, held at the Royal Albert Hall in London earlier this week.
Achtner outlined how the 150-year-old lending institution has embraced artificial intelligence since ChatGPT — the popular AI chatbot from Microsoft-backed startup OpenAI — burst onto the scene in November 2022.
The HSBC AI leader said that the bank has more than 550 use cases across its business lines and functions linked to AI — ranging from fighting money laundering and fraud using machine learning tools to supporting knowledge workers with newer generative AI systems.

One example he gave was a partnership that HSBC has in place with internet search titan Google on the use of AI technology anti-money laundering and fraud mitigation. That tie-up has been in place for several years, he said. The bank has also dipped its toes deeper into genAI tech much more recently.

“When it comes to generative artificial intelligence, we do need to clearly separate that” from other types of AI, Achtner said. “We do approach the underlying risk with respect to generative very differently because, while it represents incredible potential opportunity and productivity gains, it also represents a different type of risk.”
Achtner’s comments come as other figures in the financial services sector — particularly leaders at startup firms — have made bold statements about the level of overall efficiency gains and cost reductions they are seeing as a result of investments in AI.
Buy now, pay later firm Klarna says it has been taking advantage of AI to make up for loss of productivity resulting from declines in its workforce as employees move on from the company.
It is implementing a company-wide hiring freeze and has slashed overall employee headcount down to 3,800 from 5,000 — a roughly 24% workforce reduction — with the help of AI, CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski said in August. He is looking to further reduce Klarna’s headcount to 2,000 staff members — without specifying a time for this target.
Klarna’s boss said the firm was lowering its overall headcount against the backdrop of AI’s potential to have “a dramatic impact” on jobs and society.
“I think politicians already today should consider whether there are other alternatives of how they could support people that may be effective,” he said at the time in an interview with the BBC. Siemiatkowski said it was “too simplistic” to say AI’s disruptive effects would be offset by the creation of new jobs thanks to AI.
Oestmann of NV Ltd, a London-based firm that offers advisory services for the C-suite of venture capital and private equity firms, directly touched on Klarna’s actions, saying headlines around such AI-driven workforce reductions are “not helpful.”
Klarna, she suggested, likely saw that AI “makes them a more valuable company” and was consequently incorporating the technology as part of plans to reduce its workforce anyway.

The result Klarna is seeing from AI “are very real,” a Klarna spokesperson told CNBC. “We publicize these results because we want to be honest and transparent about the impact genAI is having in the real world in companies today,” the spokesperson added.
“At the end of the day,” Oestmann added, as long as people are “trained appropriately” and banks and other financial services firm can “reinvent” themselves in the new AI era, “it will just help us to evolve.” She advised financial firms to pursue “continuous learning in everything that you do.”
“Make sure you are trying these tools out, make sure you are making this part of your everyday, make sure you are curious,” she added.
Boteju, chief data and analytics officer at Lloyds, pointed to three main use cases that the lender sees with respect to AI: automating back office functions like coding and engineering documentation, “human-in-the loop” uses like prompts for sales staff, and AI-generated responses to client queries.
Boteju stressed that Lloyds is “proceeding with caution” when it comes to exposing the bank’s customers to generative AI tools. “We want to get our guardrails in place before we actually start to scale those,” he added.
“Banks in particular have been using AI and machine learning for probably about 15 or 20 years,” Boteju said, signaling that machine learning, intelligent automation and chatbots are things traditional lenders have been “doing for a while.”
Generative AI, on the other hand, is a more nascent technology, according to the Lloyds exec. The bank is increasingly thinking about how to scale that technology — but by “using the current frameworks and infrastructure we’ve got,” rather than by moving the needle significantly.

Boteju and Achtner’s comments tally with what other AI leaders of financial services have said previously. Speaking with CNBC last week, Bahadir Yilmaz, chief analytics officer of ING, said that AI is unlikely to be as disruptive as firms like Klarna are suggesting with their public messaging.
“We see the same potential that they’re seeing,” Yilmaz said in an interview in London. “It’s just the tone of communication is a bit different.” He added that ING is primarily using AI in its global contact centers and internally for software engineering.
“We don’t need to be seen as an AI-driven bank,” Yilmaz said, adding that, with many processes lenders won’t even need AI to solve certain problems. “It’s a really powerful tool. It’s very disruptive. But we don’t necessarily have to say we are putting it as a sauce on all the food.”
Johan Tjarnberg, CEO of Swedish online payments firm Trustly, told CNBC earlier this week that AI “will actually be one of the biggest technology levers in payments.” But even so, he noted that the firm is focusing more of the “basics of AI” than on transformative changes like AI-led customer service.
One area where Trustly is looking to improve customer experience with AI is subscriptions. The startup is working on an “intelligent charging mechanism” that would aim to figure out the best time for a bank to take payment from a subscription platform user, based on their historical financial activity.
Tjarnberg added that Trustly is seeing closer to 5-10% improved efficiency as a result of implementing AI within its organization. More

China’s Golden Week holiday affirmed a trend in more cautious spending, while consumers put greater emphasis on experiences.
“Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlighted still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.
“People become more cautious with spending. Also they opt for more affordable options of travel and affordable locations,” Kenneth Chow, principal at Oliver Wyman, told CNBC on Wednesday.

Passengers line up to check in at Chengdu Tianfu International Airport on October 6, 2024 as China’s week-long National Day holiday draws to a close.
China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s Golden Week holiday affirmed a trend in more cautious spending, while consumers put greater emphasis on experiences.
The seven-day public holiday that ended Monday recorded about 2% less spending per domestic trip than the pre-pandemic level, according to Goldman Sachs analysis published Tuesday.

“Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlighted still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading,” the analysts said.
The decline was an improvement from a gap of more than 10% during holidays in the spring, the Goldman report said.
The Golden Week holiday in China commemorates the founding of the People’s Republic of China on Oct. 1. It is the last public holiday of the year for the country.

Nearly one-fifth of bookings on Trip.com for the holiday came from users ages 20 to 25, making them the main consumer group, the company said. It noted more than 90 concerts were held during the holiday, and that daily growth in orders for performances and exhibitions grew by an average of more than 80% during the period.
However, a lack of blockbusters resulted in a drop in box office earnings, to 2.1 billion yuan ($300 million) this year, from 2.7 billion yuan last year, according to state media, citing the China Film Administration.

Consumers were also more spontaneous.
Trip.com said nearly 30% of travelers booked travel on the same day, or one day in advance, a 6 percentage point increase from last year. The average number of days customers booked in advance fell to 6 days this year, down from 6.8 days last year, the company said.
The holiday this year followed a flurry of policy announcements and promises, and a stock market surge. Consumer spending in China has been lackluster since the pandemic due to uncertainty about future income and economic growth.
“People become more cautious with spending. Also they opt for more affordable options of travel and affordable locations,” Kenneth Chow, principal at Oliver Wyman, told CNBC on Wednesday.
“People are much more interested in spending on things they can talk about, things they can post [on social media] about, rather than just the big ticket items,” he said. He said such shifts mean brands, including luxury ones, need to focus more on communicating the benefits to potential Chinese consumers.
“When people are becoming much more sophisticated, the proposition has to change, and whoever is able to adapt to that new trend first will be able to win,” Chow said. “It’s not just about Chinese brands. It’s not just about overseas brands. It’s about who’s going to react first and who’s going to capture the attention of Chinese consumers first.”

Appliance sales climb

Christine Peng, head of the Greater China consumer sector at UBS, pointed out Wednesday that Golden Week figures indicated recovery in spending was tied to trade-in policies for appliances.
Retail sales rose by 9% during the holiday, while sales of home appliances surged by 149.1%, according to state media, citing figures from the tax administration. It did not provide the amount spent.
“The Golden Week consumption could still suggest a modest recovery versus August, in our view, due to trade-in subsidies (for appliances and autos) and consumption vouchers issued by the local governments,” Peng said. “For example, Shanghai’s retail sales rose 3%, a recovery versus -3% YoY this August.”
During Golden Week, mainland China recorded 765 million domestic trips, up from both the prior year and before the pandemic, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.
However, by another measure of counting from the ministry, China had received 782 million domestic visits in 2019. It was not immediately clear whether the figures were comparable.
The average number of mainland China residents traveling across the border rose to 1.08 million a day during this year’s holiday, up from 1.01 million a day in 2019, according to CNBC calculations of official data.
Japan, Thailand and the U.K. were among the more popular destinations, according to booking site Trip.com.

Chinese mobile pay expands

Overseas transactions by China’s Alipay users surged by 60% during the first four days of the holiday versus the year-ago period, according to the mobile payments operator, owned by Alibaba-affiliate Ant Group.
Malaysia, Korea, Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore were the top destinations for Chinese tourists by transaction volume growth, Alipay said. It noted that rather than shopping, the Chinese travelers also spent significantly on entertainment, food and beverage, services and transportation.
Foreign visitors to mainland China using Alipay spent more than twice the amount during the first four days of the holiday, versus a year ago, the company said. China has introduced visa-free travel for more countries, while Alipay and WeChat Pay — the two dominant mobile pay apps in the country — have in the last two years made it easier for foreigners to use the apps.
Hong Kong said that visitors from mainland China visitors averaged 170,000 per day during the holiday, 27% more than a year ago. On Oct. 1, Hong Kong said it received 220,000 visitors from the mainland, the highest since the end of Covid-19 border controls.
Oliver Wyman’s Chow noted how hotels, especially those in Hong Kong, were adapting to lower prices per night by selling more food or other experiences. More

Chinese tech company Baidu’s robotaxi unit, Apollo Go, is in talks to expand overseas in the near future, according to a source familiar with the situation.
Regulators in parts of Beijing and cities such as Wuhan — Apollo Go’s largest operating region — have allowed companies to commercially operate self-driving taxis.
Tesla is scheduled to hold its widely anticipated robotaxi event on Thursday.

Chinese tech company Baidu announced Monday it can sell some robotaxi rides without any human staff in the vehicles.

BEIJING — Chinese tech company Baidu’s robotaxi unit, Apollo Go, is in talks with several firms to expand into overseas markets in the “near future,” according to a source familiar with the matter.
No details on timing or regions were available.

Baidu is one of the major operators of robotaxis in China. Regulators in parts of Beijing and cities such as Wuhan — Apollo Go’s largest operating region — have allowed companies to commercially operate self-driving taxis after years of just permitting internal testing.
Tesla is scheduled to hold its widely anticipated robotaxi event on Thursday.

WeRide, another Chinese robotaxi developer, in late September announced a deal to integrate its cars onto ride-hailing giant Uber’s platform in Abu Dhabi this year. The statement said the companies did not plan on similar partnerships in the U.S. or China.
In July, BYD and Uber announced they would develop “autonomous-capable vehicles” for the ride-hailing company’s platform. They did not share details.
Robotaxi rides in China operated by Baidu and companies such as Pony.ai are generally highly subsidized by the companies to encourage their usage. Local regulation sometimes requires a human staff worker to sit inside the car, meaning not all the vehicles are fully autonomous.

Baidu said as of late July, Apollo Go had operated more than 7 million robotaxi rides.
Separately, Baidu on Tuesday announced Rong Luo would no longer serve as its CFO, and instead become executive vice president overseeing the company’s mobile ecosystem unit. Junjie He, former head of the mobile unit, will become interim CFO, the company said. Baidu described the changes as part of a “management rotation.” More

Zheng Shanjie, chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, pledged a raft of actions to bolster the country’s economy during a highly-anticipated press conference.
But he stopped short of announcing any new major stimulus plans, underwhelming investors and weakening a long rally.

Two women sit on the sidewalk of Qiansimen Jialing River Bridge, decorated with Chinese national flags, on October 3, 2024 in Chongqing, China. National Day Golden Week is a holiday in China commemorates the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. 
Cheng Xin | Getty Images

Zheng Shanjie, chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, on Tuesday pledged a raft of actions to bolster the country’s economy during a highly-anticipated press conference.
But he stopped short of announcing any new major stimulus plans, underwhelming investors and weakening the rally in the mainland Chinese markets.

China will speed up special purpose bond issuance to local governments to support regional economic growth, the senior NDRC official said.
Zheng said ultra-long special sovereign bonds, totaling 1 trillion yuan, have been fully deployed to fund local projects, and he vowed that China will continue to issue ultra-long special treasury bonds next year.

BEIJING, CHINA – JUNE 22: Zheng Shanjie, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), meets with Robert Habeck (not in the picture), German vice chancellor and minister for economic affairs and climate action on June 22, 2024 in Beijing, China. 
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

The central government will release a 100 billion yuan investment plan for next year by the end of this month, ahead of schedule, a senior official added.
The NDRC head was speaking at a press briefing with four other key officials of the country’s economic planning agency. The briefing came as markets in mainland China returned from Golden Week, a weeklong holiday that started Sept. 30.
The rally in Chinese markets lost steam as policymakers held back from delivering more stimulus measures. The CSI 300 blue chip index pared gains to a 5% rise, after skyrocketing over 10% on open. The Shanghai Composite Index and SZSE Component Index similarly dialed back gains to around 5% and 8%, respectively.

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Shanghai Composite Index

Underwhelming stimulus

China is “fully confident” that it will achieve the full-year economic growth target this year, Zheng said, while pledging some measures to support the property market and boost domestic spending.
“The absence of specific figures may not be a negative sign”, Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note. China’s “pro-growth policy stance remains unchanged.”
The economist kept her growth forecast for China unchanged at 4.7% this year and 4.8% in 2025, while anticipating that Beijing could arrange another 1 trillion to 3 trillion yuan of additional fiscal support to boost the real economy.
“Many western investors will take profits off the table today and wait to see if more money comes in,” Shaun Rein, partner and managing director at China Market Research Group told CNBC. They have had “too much froth as they hoped the government would launch a massive stimulus.”
“If there’s no fiscal stimulus with real meat and details, the rally will fade,” he added.

More’s needed

Last month, China’s top leaders had signaled a sense of urgency in confronting a long and painful economic downturn that has thrown into doubt the country’s ability to hit an annual growth target of “around 5%.”
Before the holiday, Chinese authorities had called for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support at a monthly meeting of top Communist Party officials, and unveiled a flurry of stimulus measures aimed to put an end to the sliding property prices.

The stimulus blitz came as growth in the world’s second largest economy had slowed after a disappointing recovery from Covid-19 lockdowns, weighed down by lackluster domestic demand and a protracted property downturn.
In the first half of the year, China’s economy grew by 5.0% from a year earlier, meeting the central government’s target, while in the April-June quarter, its GDP growth missed expectations and grew by 4.7%, marking its slowest growth since the first quarter in 2023.

China’s latest consumer price index rose by 0.6% year on year in August, missing expectations of 0.7%, while the core-CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, climbed by 0.3%, a slower rise for a second-straight month.
Among a barrage of disappointing economic data, China’s factory activity also contracted for the fifth consecutive month in September, with the official PMI coming in at 49.8 in September. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a reading below that level points to contraction.
The Caixin PMI was 49.3 in the same period, the sharpest contraction in 14 months, driven by declining demand and a weakening labor market.
In March, Zheng said at a high-level press conference that China will “continue to strengthen macroeconomic policies.” It would involve coordination of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial and regional policies, he said, as China continues to step up macro economic policy adjustment.
The NDRC chief also acknowledged that “there are still many difficulties and problems” in the process of achieving the country’s expected growth targets, according to CNBC’s translation of his Mandarin-language remarks. More

EVER SINCE Hamas’s attacks on Israel a year ago, the biggest fear in oil markets has been that tensions would escalate into a full-blown regional war pitting Israel against Iran, the world’s seventh-largest producer of crude. Until recently both countries seemed keen to avoid it. That explains why, despite war in Gaza and Houthis firing missiles in the Red Sea, initial jitters on oil markets after October 7th last year soon gave way to the low and stable prices that have prevailed for much of this year. More

Crypto relationship scams have become a common type of investment fraud tied to cryptocurrency like bitcoin and ethereum.
Criminals use social media, networking and other sites like Instagram, WhatsApp and LinkedIn to build trust and entice people to buy fake crypto investments, federal officials said.

krisanapong detraphiphat | Moment | Getty Images

Investors are at a heightened risk of cryptocurrency scams tied to fake relationships established over social media, dating apps and networking sites, federal officials warn.
Such frauds occur when scammers use dating apps, social media platforms, professional networking sites or encrypted messaging apps to pose as a romantic interest, old friend, investment professional or other acquaintance.

Fraudsters gain the trust of targets over time. At some point, they broach the idea of investing in crypto — and then defraud victims via fake investments.
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“Relationship investment scams, including those involving crypto asset investments, pose a risk of catastrophic harm to retail investors, and the threat is increasing rapidly as these scams become more popular with fraudsters,” Gurbir S. Grewal, director of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Enforcement, said in a press statement.
Last month, the SEC brought its first-ever enforcement actions tied to crypto relationship frauds. The SEC alleged criminals pilfered millions of dollars of investors’ money in two separate schemes tied to WhatsApp, LinkedIn and Instagram and fake crypto asset trading platforms NanoBit and CoinW6.

Crypto scam losses ‘can be huge’

Crypto, examples of which includes bitcoin and ethereum, is a digital currency. Its use has grown among criminals, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Consumers lost an estimated $5.6 billion from crypto-related scams in 2023, up 45% from 2022, the FBI said in a recent fraud report.
Investment scams accounted for about 71% of those total losses in 2023, the agency said.

There are “many variations” of crypto investment fraud, but the most prominent last year was the relationship scam, the FBI said.
“The dollar losses can be huge,” Kim Casci-Palangio, head of the romance scam recovery group at the Cybercrime Support Network, said on a recent podcast published by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, a federal brokerage regulator.
“For our program, the dollar losses average about $178,000 a person,” Casci-Palangio said.

These frauds are often ‘long cons’

Criminals have turned to crypto more readily as an outlet for fraud because of its decentralized nature, the speed of irreversible transactions and ability to move money around the world, the FBI said.
Advancements in artificial intelligence will likely make romance scams tied to crypto harder to detect, said Micah Hauptman, director of investor protection at the Consumer Federation of America, a nonprofit consumer advocacy group.
These frauds are often “long cons,” Hauptman said.
Jules, a victim of a crypto relationship scam, detailed her experience with the crime on a new FINRA podcast. FINRA only used Jules’ first name to protect her identity. It’s unclear how much total money she lost, but disclosed it was “thousands of dollars of transactions.”
Jules, who grew up in the Seattle area, began messaging a supposed romantic interest on a dating app in spring 2022 while finishing the final few weeks of her undergraduate degree.

After a “couple of weeks of regular communication” via text, the man “slowly” began to introduce the idea of investing into bitcoin, she said.
“This person was really kind. We had really good interaction,” Jules said. “It started with a friendship. It started with communication. It wasn’t like, ‘Hey, give me your money.'”
The romantic interest — who was a scammer hiding his identity — provided information to build the illusion he was a knowledgeable crypto investor, such as fake screenshots of thousands of dollars in a digital wallet, Jules said.
She took out personal loans to fund crypto investments, she said. Initially, she started with a “little bit” of money,” around $1,000, eventually moving into “larger dollar amounts,” Jules said.

How to protect yourself from crypto scams

Crispin La Valiente | Moment | Getty Images

Here are tips from the FBI, SEC and financial experts on how to protect yourself from crypto romance scams:

Be cautious of investment advice or promotions from someone you meet online and have never met in real life, even if you have spoken on the phone or video chatted — and no matter how trustworthy they seem.
Look out for domain or website names that impersonate legitimate financial institutions, especially cryptocurrency exchanges. Fraudsters often use websites that mimic those of real financial firms (but are often slightly different) to convince people of legitimacy.
Don’t download or use suspicious-looking apps to invest unless you can verify their legitimacy.
If someone is pitching you can investment, don’t gain a false sense of security by being able to make early withdrawals or seeing “profits.”
Beware of fake testimonials from people claiming to have made money.
If an investment sounds too good to be true, it likely is.
Double check that an investment firm is registered on BrokerCheck. More