Finance

Opinions about artificial intelligence tend to fall on a wide spectrum. At one extreme is the utopian view that AI will cause runaway economic growth, accelerate scientific research and perhaps make humans immortal. At the other extreme is the dystopian view that AI will cause abrupt, widespread job losses and economic disruption, and perhaps go rogue and wipe out humanity. So a paper published earlier this year by Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, two computer scientists at Princeton University, is notable for the unfashionably sober manner in which it treats AI: as “normal technology”. The work has prompted much debate among AI researchers and economists. More

Just how far can French politicians push the bond market? Efforts to slash the country’s American-style deficit, which sits at 5.4% of GDP, might soon bring down another government. On September 8th François Bayrou, the prime minister, will face a confidence vote over his proposed spending cuts. He seems almost certain to lose. Should that lead to another minority government, the chances are low that it could secure enough votes to pass a budget that would meaningfully lower borrowing. Meanwhile, the yield on ten-year French government bonds has climbed to 3.6%, above Greece’s ten-year yield and on par with that of Italy, the continent’s usual fiscal flounderer (see chart). More

If the French government fails a confidence motion on September 8th, it will soon have a new prime minister. They would have to face down the National Rally (RN), a hard-right party leading the polls by a wide margin. France is no outlier: the hard right is on the march. The Brothers of Italy govern Italy; the Law and Justice (PiS) party has the Polish presidency. Reform UK leads the polls in Britain. In Germany the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is neck and neck with the conservatives. More

Companies operating primarily in China will need to raise at least $25 million to list on the Nasdaq in the U.S., the exchange has proposed.
“It will be more difficult for small Chinese companies to go IPO [on the] Nasdaq under the new rule,” said Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law.
The change came on the heels of Beijing’s announcement that it would slap new punitive tariffs on some U.S. optical fiber producers, effective Thursday.

The Nasdaq Marketsite is seen during morning trading on April 7, 2025 in New York City. 
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

BEIJING — The Nasdaq stock exchange in the U.S. is planning listing requirements that will make it harder for small Chinese companies to list in New York, after a flood of tiny initial public offerings.
As part of proposed changes, companies operating primarily in China will need to raise at least $25 million in initial public offerings to list on the exchange, Nasdaq said late Wednesday local time.

The move comes as tensions between the U.S. and China simmer, and as the Nasdaq faces broader financial market issues.
“It will be more difficult for small Chinese companies to go IPO [on the] Nasdaq under the new rule,” said Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law. “The new rule reacts to some IPO cases of ‘pump and dump’ due to small float size.”
There have been been few large Chinese IPOs in the U.S. since the fallout around ride-hailing company Didi’s New York listing in 2021. But in 2024, 35 small China-based companies listed in New York, roughly twice the 17 U.S.-based microcap listings, Renaissance Capital said in December.
Microcaps typically refer to stocks with market capitalizations of between $50 million and $300 million, meaning the companies raised only a few million in the initial public offering.
The rule change is “a positive,” said Gary Dvorchak, managing director at Blueshirt Group, whose business includes advising Chinese companies on IPOs. “I think it’s going to instill more confidence that the companies are listing are doing it for legitimate reasons and there’s less likely to be games being played with the stock and it really protects the companies as well.”

Nasdaq noted the Chinese listings pose greater risk to U.S. investors due to U.S. inability to take legal action “against entities and individuals involved in potentially manipulative trading activities in these securities.”
“Further, the Exchange has observed that Chinese companies listing on Nasdaq in connection with an IPO with an offering size below $25 million have a higher rate of compliance concerns,” Nasdaq said.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission needs to formally approve Nasdaq’s proposal. Companies already in the IPO process would then have 30 days to complete the process under prior rules, Nasdaq said, while all subsequent listings would have to comply with the changes.
The New York Stock Exchange, which typically only handles far larger IPOs, did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside of U.S. business hours. The SEC and China’s Securities Regulatory Commission did not immediately respond either.

Tensions on the boil?

The Nasdaq’s listing requirement is “another example of the multitude of ways in which conducting business, trade and investment relations between the two countries is growing more complex and difficult,” said Stephen Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
In fact, the New York exchange’s rule change came on the heels of Beijing’s announcement late Wednesday that it would slap new punitive tariffs on some U.S. optical fiber producers, effective Thursday.
“China is saying: we are prepared to fight fire with fire,” Olson said. “The trade truce is just a temporary band-aid. It could collapse at any time.”
China’s Ministry of Commerce cited a six-month investigation that found that some U.S. exporters had skirted China’s anti-dumping levies by selling a modified version of the optical fiber.
New York-headquartered optical fiber producer Corning now faces a 37.9% duty on the product’s exports to China, OFS Fitel 33.3% and Draka Communications Americas 78.2%.
For its overall business, Corning counted China as its largest source of revenue outside the U.S., contributing 32% of its total sales revenue in 2024, according to the company earnings report.
The company and the U.S. Commerce Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
China has a deficit of $57 million in optical fiber trade with the U.S. in the first seven months this year, according to the official customs figures.
That imbalance may have given Beijing the “technical pretext to act,” said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit, noting that the items that China imports from the U.S. are largely more advanced and thus more expensive per item.
“The exchange of fire [between the U.S. and China] will continue in many ways,” Xu predicts, which might derail plans for a meeting between the two countries’ presidents.
The decision came a day after Washington revoked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s authorization to ship key chipmaking equipment and technology to its manufacturing plant in China, the latest move to curb Beijing’s semiconductor advances.
China’s optical fiber tariff “signals displeasure” on recent U.S. moves to restrict Beijing’s access to advanced chips and participation in the undersea cable supply chain, said Alfredo Montufar-Helu, managing director at advisory firm GreenPoint.
But the tariff is “also targeted and restrained enough to avoid shattering months of trade negotiations. And it also serves as a reminder that China’s leverage extends beyond rare earths,” Montufar-Helu said.

Years of growing of scrutiny

While China has sought to encourage domestic financial development, it has also been keen to control capital outflows, including stock offerings overseas. New policies in the last three years have required Chinese companies to get the securities regulator’s approval for overseas listings, especially if their business has a large domestic user base.
Stateside, Nasdaq’s move marks a big step in what’s been growing regulatory scrutiny on tiny Chinese IPOs over the last several years.
Underwriters for IPOs with market capitalizations below $600 million saw their average commission triple over four years to 12% in 2020, the Hong Kong stock exchange and local securities regulator said in a joint statement back in May 2021.
Then in November 2022, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority in the U.S. warned investors about “significant unusual price increases on the day of or shortly after the IPOs of certain small-cap issuers, most of which involve issuers with operations in other countries.” The notice mentioned China in particular.
FINRA added it “has concerns” about how foreign nationals have opened accounts at U.S. broker-dealers to invest in IPOs and then placed “manipulative orders and trades to inflate aftermarket prices.”
In a FINRA podcast dated Nov. 12, 2024, Peter Gonzalez of the special investigations unit said the “ramp and dump” schemes have evolved — now occurring weeks or months after the IPO, instead of only a few days.

Weekly analysis and insights from Asia’s largest economy in your inboxSubscribe now

Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that Nasdaq is planning to require Chinese companies to raise at least $25 million in initial public offerings to list on the exchange. More

Commodity markets look deceptively simple. The prices of raw materials, unlike those of bonds or stocks, seem to move according to how much raw material there is—forget obscure data somewhere on a balance-sheet. When the supply of a commodity shrinks, prices go up. When supply expands, they go down. Inventories are buffers against shocks: when they are low, prices move more, and vice versa. More

Stephen Miran, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee to be chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, sits on the day he testifies during a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025. 
Annabelle Gordon | Reuters

Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee for the open Federal Reserve Governor role, vowed to uphold the central bank’s independence as well as its dual mandate — price stability and maximum employment.
“In my view, the most important job of the central bank is to prevent Depressions and hyperinflations. Independence of monetary policy is a critical element for its success,” Miran said in his opening remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee ahead of time.

The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Miran’s confirmation Thursday morning. The chair of the Council of Economic Advisors and a close adviser to Trump is set to fill the last few months of a term unexpectedly vacated by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler. The nominee will serve out Kugler’s term, which expires Jan. 31, 2026. The Fed next decides on rates on Sept. 17.
Miran’s appointment comes amid speculation that Trump would seek to nominate a “shadow chair” whose job it would be mainly to act as a gadfly on the board. Trump said the nominee for the Kugler seat would be temporary rather than a permanent replacement for Powell.
The president has been pushing for sharply lower borrowing costs. Miran has been critical of the Fed in the past, specifically taking issues with its aggressive stimulus during the Covid crisis.
“If confirmed, I plan to dutifully carry out my role pursuant to the mandates assigned by Congress. My opinions and decisions will be based on my analysis of the macroeconomy and what’s best for its long-term stewardship,” Miran said. “The Federal Open Market Committee is an independent group with a monumental task, and I intend to preserve that independence and serve the American people to the best of my ability.”
But Miran also raised some questions about oversight of the Fed in respect to its activities outside of that dual mandate, including the central bank’s balance sheet.
“The Fed oversees the most important global financial institutions. It sets varying prices of money for borrowers and lenders, including other central banks. The ultimate composition of the Fed’s balance sheet is an open-ended question,” he said in the statement. More

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks during The Clearing House Annual Conference in New York City on Nov. 12, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, a candidate to take over from Jerome Powell as chair in 2026, on Wednesday voiced his support for starting a rate-cutting cycle in two weeks and said the central bank has the flexibility to adjust that pace in the future.
“When the labor market turns bad, it turns bad fast. … So for me, I think we need to start cutting rates at the next meeting,” Waller said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “We don’t have to go into a lock sequence of steps. We can kind of see where things are going, because people are still worried about tariff inflation. I’m not, but everybody else is.”

Considered to be on President Donald Trump’s short list of potential successors for Fed chair, Waller was one of two Fed governors to dissent from the July Federal Open Market Committee decision to hold the central bank’s benchmark interest rate steady in a range between 4.25%-4.5%. It was the first time two governors had opposed a committee rate decision in more than 30 years.
Waller believes there should be multiple cuts over the next few months, saying interest rates today are perhaps 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points above their “neutral” level.
“I would say over the next three or six months, we could see multiple cuts coming in. Whether it’s like every other meeting, every meeting, we’ll have to wait and see [what] the data says,” Waller said.
Waller acknowledged that tariffs are a tax on the consumer that will slow growth, but he doesn’t see a recession in his economic forecast.
The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Sept. 16- 17.

Waller declined to comment on Trump’s attempt to fire fellow Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. But he reiterated the importance of Fed independence and said the central bank will maintain its independence whoever assume leadership.
“The independence of the Fed is critical for everything we do, and there are things that are going on that make people worried, but I still believe that we have an independent Fed,” Waller said. “People that are appointed will behave that way and act in an apolitical fashion.”

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

OnePay, the fintech firm majority owned by Walmart, is launching its own branded wireless plan as it seeks to become a one-stop shop for its users, CNBC has learned.
OnePay Wireless will be available starting Wednesday in the OnePay app, according to Gigs, the mobile services startup that partnered with the company.
The plan costs $35 a month for unlimited 5G data, talk and text on the AT&T network, Gigs said.

Walmart-backed OnePay offers credit and debit cards, high-yield savings accounts, buy now, pay later loans and a digital wallet with peer-to-peer payments.
Photo obtained from OnePay website

OnePay, the fintech firm majority owned by Walmart, is launching its own branded wireless plan as it seeks to become a one-stop shop for its users, CNBC has learned.
OnePay Wireless will be available starting Wednesday in the OnePay app, according to Gigs, the mobile services startup that partnered with the company.

The plan costs $35 a month for unlimited 5G data, talk and text on the AT&T network, Gigs said. The plans are activated in-app with a few clicks and don’t require credit checks or activation fees, the startup said.
OnePay, created by Walmart in 2021 alongside venture firm Ribbit Capital, has methodically built out its offerings in a bid to become an American super app akin to overseas offerings like WeChat or Alipay. OnePay services include credit and debit cards, high-yield savings accounts, buy now, pay later loans, and a digital wallet with peer-to-peer payments.
The OnePay-Gigs partnership is the latest example of a fintech firm adding wireless connectivity to its product set; Klarna and Nubank have made similar announcements.
OnePay confirmed the launch and declined to comment further.
Gigs CEO Hermann Frank said that embedding wireless plans into fintech services can lower AT&T’s customer acquisition costs — savings which can be shared with end users.

“The average consumer largely overpays for their phone bill,” Frank said. “We can now offer a product at a price point that is about half what the typical consumer pays right now, with all the modern features that you require.”
There is a “growing pipeline” of U.S. companies planning to offer their own wireless plans from Gigs and AT&T, according to a joint statement from the firms. Companies typically get a share of the revenue from these plans, Frank told CNBC.
“The future is one where consumers can buy and manage their cellular plans from any number of personal or workplace apps they use every day,” William Traylor, AT&T’s vice president of emerging business – platforms & partnerships said in the statement.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More