Finance

Japan is used to the position in which it currently finds itself: apart from the rest of the rich world. Elsewhere, as inflation exceeded central-bank targets, rate-setters tightened monetary policy in rough proportion to the size of their overshoot. If the Bank of Japan had behaved in a similar manner to its G10 peers, notes Tim Baker of Deutsche Bank, the country’s interest rates would have increased by two percentage points over the past few years. Instead, they barely crept up, rising from -0.1% to 0.25%, despite nearly three years of price growth above the BoJ’s target of 2%. More

Wall Street was poorly represented in the expensive seats behind Donald Trump at his inauguration. That honour fell instead to the leaders of America’s technology industry, who turned up en masse. Was this a humbling exclusion? Not quite. Whereas Silicon Valley travelled east to avoid retribution, Wall Street stayed away because it expects none. More

“Short essays” appear to be causing big problems in China’s bond market. Over the past year the term has been used to refer to rumours swirling around financial hubs, which often originate with brief posts on social media that attempt to explain the inner workings of the system. One such rumour claims that the central bank is hunting down speculators who have made “illegal transactions” on the bond market. Another implies the China Financial Futures Exchange, where bond futures are bought and sold, has ratcheted up fees in order to discourage trading. More

For bears of both the market and polar kind, a planet without an ice cap is a tragedy. The Arctic is warming four times faster than the world at large, causing ice to shrink by an area the size of Austria each year. Since the 1980s the volume of ice has fallen by 70% or more. The Arctic’s first ice-free day may occur before 2030. More

China is emphasizing its willingness to negotiate as increased tariffs on exports to the United States may soon become a reality.
China’s Ministry of Commerce has always maintained communication with “relevant” U.S. authorities on economy and trade, ministry spokesperson He Yadong said in response on Thursday.
“The Chinese side hopes that under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, both sides will … properly manage differences,” He told reporters, according to a CNBC translation of the Mandarin.

U.S. President Donald Trump meets China’s President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.
Kevin Lemarque | Reuters

BEIJING — China is emphasizing its willingness to negotiate as increased tariffs on exports to the United States may soon become a reality.
U.S. President Donald Trump said this week he may increase duties on Chinese goods by 10% as soon as Feb. 1. The White House on Monday also announced plans to investigate China over actions harmful to U.S. commerce.

China’s Ministry of Commerce has always maintained communication with “relevant” U.S. authorities on economy and trade, ministry spokesperson He Yadong said in response on Thursday.
“The Chinese side hopes that under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, both sides will … strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences, expand mutually beneficial cooperation and promote the stable and healthy development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations,” He added during a weekly press conference. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.
Trump said last week that he spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the phone about TikTok and trade. The Chinese side’s readout did not mention the social media app, but said Xi called for cooperation and cast the two countries’ economic ties as mutually beneficial.

“Tariffs are not conducive to China or the U.S., or the entire world,” commerce spokesperson He said.
“China is willing to work with the U.S. to push bilateral economic and trade relations in a stable, healthy and sustainable direction,” He said, noting that was on the basis of “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.”

The comments echoed those of China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on Tuesday.
“We stand ready to maintain communication with the U.S., properly handle differences, expand mutually beneficial cooperation and pursue a steady, sound and sustainable development of China-U.S. relationship,” Mao said when asked about negotiations over tariffs.
“China will also firmly defend its own interests,” she said. That’s according to an official English-language transcript.
Even if 10% tariffs are imposed on China, that’s far lower than the original 60% that Trump had floated during his campaign.
Hours after his inauguration on Monday, Trump reiterated plans for 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, without specifying a figure for China. He said only that increased duties might be used to force Beijing-based ByteDance to sell social media app TikTok, whose future availability in the U.S. is now in question.
When asked about TikTok on Thursday, Chinese commerce spokesperson He said China “hopes the U.S. side will listen more to the voices of businesses and the public,” and “do more things that are conducive to economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States and the well-being of the people.” More

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The CEOs of Coinbase, Binance and Circle told CNBC they see a clearer path toward getting concrete laws for the crypto industry.
Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong said that he sees crypto entering the “dawn of a new day” with a Trump-led U.S. administration.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission launched a “crypto task force” aimed at “developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets.”

FRANCE – 2025/01/20: In this photo illustration, Trump Meme , Trump the Crypto president, is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Romain Doucelin/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Romain Doucelin | Getty Images

Cryptocurrency firm bosses are optimistic about the changes of comprehensive federal rules for the industry passing this year now that Donald Trump, who is a backer of bitcoin, returned to the White House.
The CEOs of Coinbase, Binance and Circle told CNBC they now see a clearer path toward securing some concrete rules on digital assets — unlike the previous U.S. administration, which took aggressive enforcement action against several major crypto companies.

Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong said that he sees crypto entering the “dawn of a new day” with a Trump-led U.S. administration.
“You have to remember: the last four years, we really felt like we were being attacked by this administration,” Armstrong told CNBC in a TV interview at the World Economic Forum’s annual event in Davos, Switzerland.
“They tried to weaponize the lack of clarity in the rules to really push back, even on the good actors,” Armstrong added. “There were some bad actors too, to be fair — but they even really tried to go after the good actors, I think, like us.”

Coinbase is the biggest crypto trading platform in the U.S. The firm often touts itself as a regulated alternative to offshore exchanges, like Binance.

Regulatory clarity to boost sector

On Tuesday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced the launch of a “crypto task force” aimed at “developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets.”

The SEC panel will be tasked with developing a clear set of rules for the crypto sector, while also addressing issues regarding registration of coins, according to a statement from the agency.
Coinbase’s Armstrong said the current main priority for crypto as an industry is working to get legislation passed in the U.S. to offer clarity.
“The industry is just ready for this new change,” he told CNBC. “They’re ready for clear rules. And that’s our big push.”
Richard Teng, CEO of Binance, highlighted token issuance, trading and asset management as some of the key things he’s expecting to see progress on in terms of crypto-specific legislation in the U.S.

Teng said he sees “much clearer regulation” happening in the U.S. this year — and that this would be supportive for bitcoin and other digital assets.
“If you look at past cycles, this year will be a year that we see a new all-time high for the crypto industry,” Teng said in a CNBC-hosted fireside discussion in Davos, Switzerland.
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, passed the $100,000 price milestone for the first time last year, as traders grew optimistic about the crypto industry’s prospects under a Trump administration.
As of Wednesday, the token was trading at a price of about $104,000, according to CoinGecko data.

U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve

Binance’s Teng is also expecting the U.S. to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve — something Trump suggested he’d do during his campaign.
Jeremy Allaire, CEO of Circle, said he believes “it would be prudent for central banks to hold some reserves in something like bitcoin,” adding this could cause a return to commodity-backed money.
“If we look back when we decoupled from non-sovereign commodity money, we really saw around the world incredible abuses through fiat and that goes on,” Allaire said. “The vast majority of governments in the world are significantly in debt.”

“It’s taken kind of open heart surgery, shock therapy, in a place like Argentina to get out of this vicious cycle. And I respect that this is a important topic for the U.S. government now,” he added.
Trump has previously suggested that a U.S. national bitcoin reserve could be underpinned by crypto assets seized from criminal operations, such as hackers and fraud rings.

Stablecoin laws expected

Along with a pro-crypto president, the U.S. now also has senators and representatives who are supportive of the technology and want to put regulation in place — something that’s “absolutely appropriate,” Allaire stressed.
Allaire noted there are already “American champions” in the crypto space such as Circle, Coinbase and blockchain platform Solana. “I think under this new administration, we’ll see very likely rapid progress in rule making and policy making to advance this industry,” he said.
Circle’s CEO sees the U.S. advancing legislation particularly around so-called stablecoins — digital tokens designed to be pegged to real-world assets like the dollar — given that there’s already bipartisan support in Congress for such tokens. Circle is behind USDC, which is one of the largest stablecoins.
The Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act, a bill that seeks to establish a regulatory regime to license issuers of stablecoins, was working its way through Congress before last year’s election. It has yet to pass a House vote. More

A record share of U.S. companies in China are accelerating plans to relocate manufacturing or sourcing, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in China.
The increase — to 30% of respondents having considered or started such diversification in 2024 — surpassed the prior high of 24% in 2022, according to annual surveys from the American Chamber of Commerce in China.
The latest AmCham China survey covered 368 members from Oct. 21 to Nov. 15. Trump was re-elected U.S. president on Nov. 5.

Chinese and U.S. flags flutter near The Bund, before U.S. trade delegation meet their Chinese counterparts for talks in Shanghai, China July 30, 2019.
Aly Song | Reuters

BEIJING — A record share of U.S. companies in China are accelerating their plans to relocate manufacturing or sourcing, according to a business survey released Thursday.
About 30% of the respondents considered or started such diversification in 2024, surpassing the prior high of 24% in 2022, according to annual surveys from the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

That also exceeded the 23% share reported for 2017, when U.S. President Donald Trump began his first term and started raising tariffs on Chinese goods.
In addition to U.S.-China tensions, “one of the major impacts that we’ve seen in the last five years was Covid and how China closed itself off from the world because of Covid,” Michael Hart, Beijing-based president of AmCham China, told reporters Thursday.
“That’s been one of the largest triggers as people realized they needed to diversify their supply chains,” he said. “I don’t see that trend slowing down.”
China restricted international travel and locked down parts of the country during the Covid-19 pandemic in an attempt to restrict the spread of the disease.

While India and Southeast Asian countries remained the most popular destination for relocating production, the survey showed 18% of the respondents considered relocating to the U.S. in 2024, up from 16% the prior year.

The majority of U.S. companies did not plan to diversify. Just over two-thirds, or 67%, of respondents said they were not considering relocating manufacturing, a 10 percentage point drop from 2023, the survey showed.
The latest AmCham China survey covered 368 members from Oct. 21 to Nov. 15. Trump was re-elected U.S. president on Nov. 5.
Trump this week affirmed plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%, and said the duties could come as soon as Feb. 1. That follows an increasingly tough U.S. stance on China. The Biden administration had emphasized the U.S. is in competition with China and issued sweeping restrictions on the ability of Chinese companies to access high-end U.S. tech.
More than 60% of the respondents said U.S.-China tensions were the biggest challenge for doing business in China in the year ahead. Competition from local state-owned companies or privately owned Chinese companies was the second-biggest challenge for U.S. businesses operating in China, according to the survey.

Slower economic growth

Adding to geopolitical pressures, growth in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed, with muted consumer spending since the pandemic. Chinese authorities in late September started ramping up efforts to stimulate growth and halt the real estate slump.
For a third-straight year, more than half of AmCham China respondents said they did not make a profit in the country, adding that the region had become less competitive in terms of margins versus other global markets.
The proportion of companies no longer listing China as a preferred investment destination climbed to 21%, doubling from pre-pandemic levels, the survey said.
Looking ahead, however, tech, industrial and consumer businesses said they viewed growth in domestic consumption as the top business opportunity for 2025, the survey said. Services firms said their top opportunity was Chinese companies looking to expand overseas.
Hart noted that many members are still optimistic on Chinese consumers as a “sizeable, important market.” More

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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Wednesday that the looming tariffs that President Donald Trump is expected to slap on U.S. trading partners could be viewed positively.
“If it’s a little inflationary but it’s good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over it,” Dimon said during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday that the looming tariffs that President Donald Trump is expected to slap on U.S. trading partners could be viewed positively.
Despite fears that the duties could spark a global trade war and reignite inflation domestically, the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets said they could protect American interests and bring trading partners back to the table for better deals for the country, if used correctly.

“If it’s a little inflationary, but it’s good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over it,” Dimon told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “National security trumps a little bit more inflation.”
Since taking office, Trump has been saber-rattling on tariffs, threatening Monday to impose levies on Mexico and Canada, then expanding the scope Tuesday to China and the European Union. The president told reporters that the EU is treating the U.S. “very, very badly” due to its large annual trade surplus. The U.S. last year ran a $214 billion deficit with the EU through November 2024.
Among the considerations are a 10% tariff on China and 25% on Canada and Mexico as the U.S. looks forward to a review on the tri-party agreement Trump negotiated during his first term. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is up for review in July 2026.
Dimon did not get into the details of Trump’s plans, but said it depends on how the duties are implemented. Trump has indicated the tariffs could take effect Feb. 1.
“I look at tariffs, they’re an economic tool, That’s it,” Dimon said. “They’re an economic weapon, depending on how you use it, why you use it, stuff like that. Tariffs are inflationary and not inflationary.”

Trump leveled broad-based tariffs during his first term, during which inflation ran below 2.5% each year. Despite the looming tariff threat, the U.S. dollar has drifted lower this week.
“Tariffs can change the dollar, but the most important thing is growth,” Dimon said.
Dimon wasn’t the only big Wall Street CEO to speak of tariffs in a positive light.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, also speaking to CNBC from Davos, said business leaders have been preparing for shifts in policy, including on trade issues.
“I think it turns into a rebalancing of certain trade agreements over time. I think that rebalancing can be constructive for U.S. growth if it’s handled right,” Solomon said. “The question is, how quickly, how thoughtfully. Some of this is negotiating tactics for things over than simply trade.”
“Used appropriately, it can be constructive,” he added. “This is going to unfold over the course of the year, and we have to watch it closely.” More