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    How America’s AI boom is squeezing the rest of the economy

    If artificial-intelligence models have a hometown, it is probably Ashburn, northern Virginia, just outside of Washington, DC. Attentive window-seaters flying into Dulles airport might notice a clutch of white-roofed boxes jutting out next to rows of suburban culs-de-sac. Those data centres are part of a cluster—the world’s biggest—which last year guzzled more than a quarter of the power produced by Virginia’s main electrical utility. More

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    ‘Job hugging’ has replaced job-hopping, consultants say

    Workers are “job hugging,” or clinging to their jobs “for dear life,” according to consultants.
    They may be nervous to move to new opportunities in the current labor market. Employers have also pulled back on hiring.

    Martin Barraud | OJO Images | Getty Images

    The so-called great resignation has become the “great stay.” But experts say workers aren’t just staying — they’re “job hugging.”
    Job hugging is the act of holding onto a job “for dear life,” consultants at Korn Ferry, an organizational consulting firm, wrote last week.

    Such clinging is a stark contrast from the historic rate of job-hopping that workers exhibited in 2021 and 2022, but makes sense given current labor market trends.
    “There is this stagnation in the labor market, where the hires, quits and layoff rates are low,” said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research in North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “There’s just not a lot of movement at all.”

    ‘Uncertainty in the world’

    The rate at which workers are voluntarily leaving their jobs has lingered near lows unseen since around 2016, outside of the initial days of the Covid-19 pandemic.
    The so-called quits rate is a barometer of workers’ perceptions of the broader labor market, Ullrich said. In this case, they may be nervous about getting another job or aren’t enthusiastic about their ability to find one, she said.
    “There’s quite a bit of uncertainty in the world — economic, political, global — and I think uncertainty causes people to naturally” remain in a holding pattern, said Matt Bohn, an executive search consultant at Korn Ferry.

    He equated the dynamic to skittish investors who sometimes sit on the sidelines, waiting for an investment opportunity.

    The job market has also gradually cooled amid a regime of higher interest rates, which makes it more costly for businesses to borrow money and expand their operations.
    The hiring rate over the past year or so has plunged to its lowest pace in more than a decade (excluding the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic) — meaning those who want to look for a new job may have a relatively tough time finding one.
    Job growth in recent months has also slowed sharply, which economists point to as evidence of a broader economic slowdown.
    More CEOs reported plans to shrink their workforce over the next 12 months than expand it — the first time that’s occurred since 2020, according to a Conference Board quarterly poll published earlier this month. The shares were 34% to 27%, respectively.
    More from Personal Finance:Mortgage rates have made a ‘substantial improvement’Why investors shouldn’t try to be a ‘hero’ in this economyWhy school lunch prices are up
    While it’s not inherently bad to stay in a job for a long time, job “hugging” can pose some risks for the unwary, experts said.
    For one, they may be sacrificing some earnings growth, since job switchers generally command higher wage growth than those who remain in their current roles, Ullrich said.
    For example, workers who get too comfortable in their current role may stagnate rather than take on additional responsibility or learn new skills, which may impact marketability and career growth when the labor market improves, Bohn said. Employers may also decide such workers are no longer meeting their performance standards, he added.
    Additionally, a lack of movement in the job market may make it harder for new entrants like recent graduates to find work, Ullrich said.
    Correction: This article has been updated to correct the timing of the Korn Ferry and Conference Board reports.

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    China’s EV industry is spending more on factories abroad than at home for the first time

    For the first time, China’s electric car industry has invested more in factories overseas than at home.
    That’s according to a report published Monday by U.S.-based consulting firm Rhodium Group.
    But, Rhodium warned, foreign projects have a low completion rate and higher chance getting cancelled altogether.

    Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and China’s Great Wall Motor (GWM) CEO Mu Feng attend the opening of the GWM automobile factory on August 15, 2025, in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
    China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images

    BEIJING — Chinese electric car companies are increasing investments in overseas factories as they ramp up competition against Tesla and other global automakers.
    For the first time since records going back to 2014, the Chinese electric car supply chain last year invested more outside the country than at home, according to a U.S.-based consulting firm Rhodium Group report published Monday.

    The bulk of announced overseas investment, or 74%, was in battery factories, the report said. But it noted investment in assembly plants abroad was also “growing rapidly.”
    The spending plans come as Chinese automakers face intense competition at home and higher tariffs on exports. Boosting investments abroad can help Chinese businesses win foreign governments’ support for market expansion.
    “Growing regulatory pushback in host markets like the EU is raising barriers to entry and will push more Chinese companies to establish local manufacturing operations,” the Rhodium report said.

    The Chinese electric car industry’s domestic investment in manufacturing tumbled sharply to $15 billion in 2024 from $41 billion in 2023 — after peaking at over $90 billion in 2022 in announced projects, according to Rhodium data.
    While overseas investment has remained far lower, it “narrowly surpassed” domestic levels in 2024 for the first time, the report said, without sharing an exact figure.

    More deals in the pipeline

    Automotive was the second-most active sector for Chinese outbound investment in the second quarter this year, according to a separate Rhodium study released late July. The materials and metals sector ranked first.
    “We recorded higher than usual activity by EV parts manufacturers, with eight transactions exceeding $100 million,” the July report said. “The largest among them was led by GEM, a Chinese battery materials manufacturer, which committed $293 million to expand its ternary precursors facility in Indonesia.”
    Several overseas factory projects announced in recent years have also begun operations.
    Great Wall Motor announced over the weekend it opened its first factory in Brazil on Friday local time. The company is also reportedly considering another factory in the region and would make the decision as soon as the middle of next year. The Chinese automaker did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.
    BYD also started production at its first Brazil factory in July, despite getting fined earlier in the year over labor practices. The Chinese electric car giant has sold more than 545,000 cars overseas this year as of July, exceeding the total of more than 417,000 vehicles for the whole of 2024, according to CNBC calculations of publicly disclosed data.
    Earlier this summer, Chinese battery supplier Envision announced in June it officially started production at its first factory in France.

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    However, those investments abroad comprise completed projects only.
    Just 25% of all announced overseas manufacturing plans by the Chinese electric car industry have been completed, far below the 45% rate for those at home, Rhodium said in Monday’s report, noting projects outside the country are twice as likely to get cancelled.
    “Chinese firms will also have to manage Beijing’s increasing concern over technology leakage, job losses, and industrial hollowing-out, which may result in tighter controls on outbound investment in strategic sectors,” the report said.
    —CNBC’s Victoria Yeo contributed to this report. More

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    When ‘invest like the 1%’ fails: How Yieldstreet’s real estate bets left customers with massive losses

    Yieldstreet is one of the best-known examples of American startups with the stated mission of democratizing access to assets such as real estate, litigation proceeds and private credit.
    But some Yieldstreet customers who participated in its real estate deals face huge losses on investments that they say turned out to be far riskier than they thought.
    Of 30 deals that CNBC reviewed information on, four have been declared total losses by Yieldstreet. Of the rest, 23 are deemed to be on “watchlist” by the startup as it seeks to recoup value for investors, sometimes by raising more funds from members.
    Yieldstreet said some of its real estate funds were “significantly impacted” by rising interest rates and market conditions.

    When Justin Klish stumbled upon an ad for Yieldstreet in February 2022, he said, it was the company’s tagline that stuck in his head.
    “Invest like the 1%,” the startup said.

    The ad spoke to his desire to build wealth and diversify away from stocks, which were then in freefall, Klish said. Yieldstreet says it gives retail investors such as Klish access to the types of deals that were previously only the domain of Wall Street firms or the ultrarich.
    So Klish, a 46-year-old financial services worker living in Miami, logged on to Yieldstreet’s platform, where a pair of offerings jumped out to him.
    He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann’s family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.
    Three years later, Klish said he has little hope of ever seeing his money again. Yieldstreet declared the Nashville project a total loss in May, according to an investor letter, wiping out $300,000 of his funds. The Chelsea deal needs to raise fresh capital to avoid a similar fate, according to another letter. Both letters were reviewed by CNBC.
    “There isn’t a day that goes by without me saying, ‘I can’t believe what happened,'” Klish told CNBC. “I lost $400,000 in Yieldstreet. I consider myself moderately financially savvy, and I got duped by this company. I just worry that it’s going to keep happening to others.”

    Distributed risk

    Yieldstreet, founded in 2015, is one of the best-known examples of American startups with the stated mission of democratizing access to assets such as real estate, litigation proceeds and private credit. To do so, it gathers funds from thousands of investors such as Klish, who typically put in at least $10,000 each for projects vetted by Yieldstreet managers.
    The startup’s central premise is that the world beyond public stocks and bonds — often called alternative assets or private market investments — provides both smoother sailing and the possibility of higher returns, a win-win proposition. This month, President Donald Trump signed an executive order designed to allow private market investments in U.S. retirement plans.
    But Yieldstreet customers who participated in its real estate deals in recent years say they’ve learned the flip side of the private markets: They face huge losses on investments that turned out far riskier than they thought, while their money has been locked up for years with little to show for it besides frustration.
    The company said in a statement that its real estate equity offerings from 2021 and 2022 were “significantly impacted” by rising interest rates and market conditions that pressured valuations industrywide.

    Yieldstreet customer Justin Klish, who said he faces $400,000 in losses from investing on the platform.
    Courtesy: Justin Klish

    This article is based on dozens of investor letters that were sent to customers by Yieldstreet and reviewed by CNBC.
    The documents show investors put more than $370 million into 30 real estate projects that have already recognized $78 million in defaults in the past year. Yieldstreet customers who spoke to CNBC say they anticipate deep or total losses on the remainder.
    The breadth of Yieldstreet’s struggles in real estate — its biggest single investment category — hasn’t previously been reported.
    CNBC’s analysis covers a wide swath of deals that the company offered between 2021 and 2024, but doesn’t include every project, of which there were at least 55, according to Yieldstreet.
    The troubled projects vary. They include apartment complexes in boomtowns such as Atlanta, Dallas and Nashville, Tennessee; developments in coastal cities including New York, Boston and Portland, Oregon; apartment buildings in the Midwest and single-family rental homes across Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.

    Of the 30 deals that CNBC reviewed information on, four have been declared total losses by Yieldstreet. Of the rest, 23 are deemed to be on “watchlist” by the startup as it seeks to recoup value for investors, sometimes by raising more funds from members. Three deals are listed as “active,” though they have stopped making scheduled payouts, according to the documents.
    Additionally, Yieldstreet shut down a real estate investment trust made up of six of the above projects last year as its value plunged by nearly half, locking up customer money for at least two years.
    Yieldstreet’s overall returns in real estate have plunged in the past two years; the category went from a 9.4% annual return rate in 2023 to a 2% return rate in the company’s most recent update on its website.
    But only customers participating in a specific fund get information about its performance, and Yieldstreet labels its investor updates “confidential,” warning customers that the information in them can’t be shared without consent from the startup. While not uncommon in the private markets, those limitations make it hard for investors to know if their experience is unique.
    Klish said he began to worry about his investments in early 2023 when updates became late and began to hint at deteriorating market conditions.
    Frustrated by those delays and what he described as a lack of candor from Yieldstreet about his sinking investments, Klish turned to forums on Facebook and Reddit for a sense of the bigger picture. There he said he found a few dozen other customers who shared their Yieldstreet experiences.
    “When I dug into the other deals, I realized that this is systemic,” said Klish. “Almost every single deal is in trouble.”
    In July, Klish filed a complaint, which CNBC has reviewed, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission alleging that Yieldstreet misled its investors. Klish said he has yet to receive a response to his complaint.

    Missing ships, busted tie-up

    Yieldstreet calls itself the leading platform offering access to the private markets, a category that has boomed over the past decade as professional investors seek sources of yield beyond stocks and bonds.
    Founded 10 years ago by Michael Weisz and Milind Mehere, the company has well-known VC backers including Khosla Ventures, Thrive Capital and General Catalyst. Yieldstreet was part of a wave of fintech startups created in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, including Robinhood and Chime, with a populist message.
    “Our mission at Yieldstreet is, how do we help create financial independence for millions of people?” Weisz said during a 2020 CNBC interview. “You do that by helping people generate consistent, passive income.”
    Weisz, who became CEO of Yieldstreet in 2023, brought experience in litigation finance, where hedge funds lend money to plaintiffs for a slice of the payout if the lawsuit wins. Mehere, a former software engineer who had co-founded online marketing startup Yodle, was the more technical of the pair.
    Yieldstreet declined to make the co-founders or other executives available for this article.
    In early 2020, Yieldstreet announced a partnership with BlackRock, the biggest asset manager in the world. The startup said at the time that its new Prism fund would contain a mix of its private market assets with conventional bond funds managed by BlackRock.
    Here is the 2020 interview with Yieldstreet co-founder Weisz:

    The move seemed to signal that Yieldstreet was primed for mainstream success. BlackRock had spent 18 months vetting the company before agreeing to the tie-up, Yieldstreet’s co-founders told CNBC at the time.
    The month after its public announcement, though, Yieldstreet had tougher news to share. It was becoming clear that customers in another one of its product lines — loans backed by commercial ships that are torn apart for scrap metal — would suffer losses, the firm told them in March, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
    Yieldstreet lost track of 13 ships in international waters that backed $89 million in member loans, according to an April 2020 lawsuit filed by the startup against the borrower in that project, which it accused of fraud. In October 2020, a British court sided with Yieldstreet in the lawsuit against the borrower, a Dubai-based ship recycler.
    The episode scared off BlackRock, which ended the partnership weeks after it was announced, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked to remain unnamed so they could speak freely about private conversations.
    A Yieldstreet spokeswoman at the time told The Wall Street Journal that the BlackRock launch was initially successful but the fund “was then faced with the market environment caused by Covid-19.”

    Yieldstreet co-founders Milind Mehere, at left, and Michael Weisz
    Source: Yieldstreet

    Three years later, the SEC fined Yieldstreet $1.9 million for selling a $14.5 million marine loan to investors even when it had reason to believe the borrower had stolen proceeds from related deals. Yieldstreet also didn’t use “publicly available” methods to track the ships it was relying on for collateral, the SEC said.
    “YieldStreet aims to unlock the complex alternative investments market for retail investors but failed to disclose glaring red flags it had about the security of the collateral backing this offering,” an SEC official said in a 2023 release accompanying the settlement, for which the company neither denied nor admitted to the agency’s findings.
    Still, the company continued to rack up assets on its platform, in part by ramping up activities in real estate. By 2023, real estate funds made up 26% of all investments on the platform, the largest asset category and well ahead of runners-up such as private credit, Yieldstreet said at the time.
    Late that year, Yieldstreet announced it had acquired Cadre, a startup co-founded by Jared Kushner that focused on broadening access to commercial real estate. The companies declined to disclose terms of the deal, but Yieldstreet said the combined entities’ “investment value” was nearly $10 billion.
    In May 2025, Yieldstreet replaced Weisz as CEO with Mitch Caplan, a former E-Trade chief who joined the startup’s board in 2021. That’s the year the venture firm where Caplan serves as president, Tarsadia Investments, took a stake in Yieldstreet. The company declined to say why Weisz was replaced.
    In July, Yieldstreet announced a $77 million capital raise, led by Tarsadia Investments.

    ‘Difficult news’

    Yieldstreet continued to make moves in real estate well after a seismic shift that made the industry far harder to navigate had begun.
    In early 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades to combat inflation, turning the economics of many projects from that period upside down. The value of multifamily buildings has dropped 19% since 2022, according to Green Street’s commercial property index.
    Projects that Yieldstreet put its customers into struggled to hit revenue targets amid price competition or had problems filling vacancies or raising rents, and thus began to fall behind on loan payments, according to investor letters.

    The building at 2010 West End Ave., Nashville, Tennessee.
    Source: Google Earth

    Combined with the use of leverage, or borrowing money that amplifies both risks and returns, Yieldstreet investors suffered complete losses on projects in Nashville, Atlanta and New York’s Upper West Side neighborhood, the letters show.
    “After exhausting all options to preserve value, YieldStreet determined there was no reasonable path to recovery,” the firm told customers who invested $15 million in the Upper West Side deal. “We sold our position for $1.”
    It’s unclear if Yieldstreet, which makes money by charging annual management fees of around 2% on invested funds, itself suffered financial losses on the defaults.
    In at least a half dozen cases, Yieldstreet went to its user base again in 2023 and 2024 to raise rescue funds for troubled deals, telling members that the loans combined the protections of debt with the upside of equity.
    But if the project was doomed, a bailout loan was, at least in one case, effectively throwing good money after bad. A $3.1 million member loan to help rescue the Nashville project, located at 2010 West End Avenue, was wiped out in just months.
    “We are reaching out to share difficult news,” Yieldstreet told investors of the Nashville project and its member loan in May. “Following multiple restructuring attempts, the property has been sold to Tishman Speyer … resulting in a complete loss of capital for investors.”

    In a statement provided in response to CNBC’s reporting for this article, Yieldstreet said it has offered 149 real estate deals since inception and has delivered positive returns on 94% of matured investments in the category.
    That 94% figure likely doesn’t include the distressed projects that CNBC has identified, since those funds aren’t yet classified as matured while Yieldstreet seeks to salvage projects on its watchlist. The watchlist designation doesn’t always result in the loss of investor funds, Yieldstreet said in another statement.
    “Of the nearly $5 billion invested across the platform, a set of real estate equity offerings originated during 2021–2022 were significantly impacted by rising interest rates and broader market conditions that pressured multifamily valuations across the industry,” Yieldstreet said through a spokeswoman.

    Adverse selection

    On its website, the startup says it offers only about 10% of the opportunities it reviews, signaling its discernment when it comes to risk.
    But several professional investors pointed to the possibility that, instead of securing only top-quality deals in real estate, Yieldstreet may be getting ones that are picked over by more established players.
    “There’s no question you’ve seen deals that institutions have passed on that went to the platforms because retail investors might have less discipline than the institutional ones,” said Greg Friedman, CEO of Peachtree Group, an Atlanta-based commercial real estate investment firm.
    “It’s a reflection of a lack of discipline in underwriting and market conditions going against them,” Friedman said of Yieldstreet’s track record. “Anything done after 2022, they should have done more carefully knowing that we are in a higher-rate environment.”

    Alterra apartments in Tucson, Arizona.
    Courtesy: Google Earth

    In late 2022, Yieldstreet even told investors that real estate was a “safe(er) haven” asset during periods of rising rates and high inflation. By then, the Fed’s intent to squash inflation with higher rates was well understood.
    “Real estate can be an effective inflation hedge, carries low correlation to traditional markets, and has even benefitted in times of market downturns, generating outsized returns,” the startup said in a blog post at the time.
    In the post, Yieldstreet gave the example of the Alterra Apartments, a multifamily project in Tucson, Arizona, where it said rent increases and a contractual cap on interest rates protected it from the Fed hikes.
    But this year, Yieldstreet told investors in the $23 million deal that the Tucson development was in technical default and headed for a full write-off.

    ‘Mind-boggling’

    Customers interviewed by CNBC accuse the company of downplaying investment risks and say that its disclosures around performance can be sloppy or misleading.
    Mark Underhill, a 57-year-old software engineer, said he invested $600,000 across 22 Yieldstreet funds and faces $200,000 in losses on projects that are on watchlist and have never made payouts.
    “With any investment, there’s a risk of loss,” Underhill said. “But there’s no consideration of these type of gut-punch losses. They talked about how their deals were backed by collateral, and they gave you all these reasons that make you feel there’s something left if the deal goes south.”
    Underhill, who was treated with chemotherapy for multiple myeloma last year and travels the American West in a camper van, said his losses are forcing him to work beyond his expected retirement date.
    “The thing that is mind-boggling is, how did they fail so badly on so many deals in so many markets?” Underhill said.

    Mark Underhill, a Yieldstreet customer who says he faces $200,000 in losses from investing on the platform.
    Courtesy: Mark Underhill

    The offering sheet for the Upper West Side project said sales prices would have to plunge 35% for Yieldstreet members to see any losses, a worse hit than what New York experienced during the 2008 recession, Klish wrote in his July complaint to the SEC.
    But the project defaulted even though prices in the area didn’t fall by that much, Klish wrote.
    In another example, while participants in the Nashville deals got letters showing a complete loss, or a -100% return, Yieldstreet’s public-facing website listed a 0% internal rate of return, or IRR, giving the false impression that investors got all their capital back.
    After CNBC asked Yieldstreet for comment on the discrepancy, the website was updated to reflect the -100% return.
    The company also stopped issuing quarterly portfolio snapshots after early 2023, making it harder for prospective investors to see how Yieldstreet’s overall investments are performing.
    So besides marketing materials, customers are mostly left to rely on the company’s disclosures about its performance as a gauge of whether to invest with the startup.
    Yieldstreet says it updates its metrics quarterly, and its website shows a 7.4% internal rate of return through March 2025 across all investments. That period likely excludes the impact of the Nashville defaults, which were disclosed in May 2025.

    ‘Winter is coming’

    Yieldstreet’s real estate woes threaten to wipe out decades of savings for Louis Litz, a 61-year-old electrical engineer from Ambler, Pennsylvania.
    Seeking income and stability, Litz put $480,000 into Yieldstreet funds, he said. Three of those projects have defaulted, while seven developments are on watchlist, he said.
    “At least half of this stuff is going under,” Litz said. “I’m 61, so there’s no way I can really recover.”
    Under its new CEO, Caplan, Yieldstreet has decided to pivot away from a business model of mostly offering bespoke investments like the ones that cratered for its real estate customers.
    This month, Yieldstreet said that it officially became a broker-dealer, allowing it to offer funds from outside asset managers including Goldman Sachs and the Carlyle Group. The plan is to become a distribution platform where 70% of funds are from these established Wall Street giants, Caplan said this month.
    The move is worlds away from the confidence that Yieldstreet co-founder Weisz had in the company’s original model.
    In the 2020 CNBC interview, Weisz said that he often reminded his staff that “winter is coming” and to prepare for turbulence.
    Yieldstreet would protect its customers from losses because of the underlying collateral the firm was investing in: real buildings with tenants in sought-after locations all over the country, Weisz said.
    “I’m not here to tell you that Milind and Michael are the world’s smartest investors and there’s never going to be something that goes wrong,” Weisz said, referencing himself and his co-founder. “We understand that when winter comes, there will be challenges, but we take comfort in knowing that there’s underlying collateral.”
    “Anybody could put money out,” Weisz said. “It’s about bringing it back home.”
    — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report. More

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    Why America can’t shake off inflation

    The Yiddish phrase “farshlepteh krenk”, untranslatable into English, describes an illness that just won’t go away. That is how some rich countries’ experience of inflation has felt. The rate of price increases has fallen sharply since the acute phase in 2022, when inflation across the OECD rose to nearly 11%, its highest since the 1970s. In June average inflation across the club was around 2.5%, only a smidge above most central banks’ targets. But many Anglophone countries still have lingering symptoms. More

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    Where has the worst inflation problem?

    The Yiddish phrase “farshlepteh krenk”, untranslatable into English, describes an illness that just won’t go away. That is how some countries’ experience of inflation has felt. The rate of price rises has fallen since 2022, when across the OECD, excluding Turkey, it rose to 11%, its highest since the 1970s. In June average inflation across the club of mostly rich countries was 2.5%, only a smidge above most central banks’ targets. But many Anglophone countries still have lingering symptoms. More

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    Fed’s Goolsbee sees ‘note of unease’ as central bank looks to next interest rate move

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said a mixed bag of inflation data coupled with lingering uncertainty over tariffs have given him some hesitation about lowering interest rates.
    “We’ve got to get some clarity from the numbers,” Goolsbee, an FOMC voter this year, said during a CNBC interview.

    Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday a mixed bag of inflation data this week coupled with lingering uncertainty over tariffs have given him some hesitation about lowering interest rates.
    Previously, Goolsbee has spoken of a “golden path” that would combine moderating inflation and a stable labor market and lead to lower rates.

    But in a CNBC interview Goolsbee said he still wants to see some more convincing data before the Federal Open Market Committee meets on Sept. 16-17. Goolsbee is one of 12 FOMC voters this year.
    Reports this week on consumer and producer prices “put in a note of unease” on where inflation is headed, as services prices “which are not obviously going to be transitory” are “kicking up,” he said.
    “So I feel like we still need another [inflation report], at least, to figure out if we’re still on the golden path,” Goolsbee said during a “Squawk Box” interview.
    The July consumer price index was relatively in line with market forecasts, though the core reading that excludes food and energy nudged higher to 3.1%, a bit above Wall Street expectations. However, the July producer price index, which measures wholesale items, posted a surprisingly high 0.9% monthly gain that was the largest in about three years.
    The data is being examined particularly closely for clues about the impact tariffs are having on inflation. While neither report showed significant obvious impacts, many economists believe the import duties President Donald Trump has imposed are slowly making their way into the data and will show up in coming months.

    “It all depends on the data and what’s the economic outlook. If we keep getting inflation reports like [previous] ones … I would be very comfortable that, hey, the dust is out of the air, it looks like we’re still where we were, which is a strong economy with inflation coming back down,” Goolsbee said.
    “In that circumstance … the right thing to do [is] to just bring the rates down to where we think they’re going to settle,” he added. “We’ve got to get some clarity from the numbers.”
    Markets are placing a near certainty that the FOMC votes to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point in September, from the current 4.25% to 4.50% level. However, there are some misgivings about what happens from there, with 55% odds of another reduction in October and just a 43% probability of a third move in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.

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    Who will Trump pick for Fed chair? Hear from all the candidates in their own words

    President Donald Trump’s short list to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair has turned into a long list of nearly a dozen possible candidates.
    In CNBC interviews that stretch back days, weeks and even months, the candidates have talked in depth about where they think the Fed should go.

    President Donald Trump’s short list to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair has turned into a long list of nearly a dozen possible candidates.
    Among them are current and former Fed officials, prominent economists and a couple market-focused hopefuls, each with ideas about where the central bank should be headed at a critical juncture for monetary policy.

    For most of them, the views coalesce around a need to lower the Fed’s benchmark interest rate, and some believe the changes must go beyond that and into the fundamental way it does business.
    In CNBC interviews that stretch back days, weeks and even months, the candidates have talked in depth about where they think the Fed should go.
    (See the video above for the key comments from those in the Fed chair race.)
    Former Governor Kevin Warsh has called for “regime change.” Market strategists David Zervos and Rick Rieder think rates can be lowered aggressively.
    Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stressed Fed independence and commitment to core central bank goals, while National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett bemoaned the lack of transparency behind the Federal Open Market Committee’s decisions.

    Governor Michelle Bowman spoke on the importance of listening to a wide range of views, including Trump’s, economist Marc Sumerlin called the Fed’s benchmark rate “just too high,” and former Governor Larry Lindsey said the lack of “intellectual diversity” has led the FOMC to be “consistently wrong” in its decisions.
    As the candidates jockey, Trump has not publicly set a timetable for a decision to replace Powell, whose term as chair ends in May 2026. The president previously has said he will nominate economist Stephen Miran for a current board vacancy.

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