Finance

With the open seat on the influential Federal Reserve Board of Governors, President Donald Trump now has a number of strategic options at the central bank.
Will Trump use the position to nominate a gadfly to torment Chair Jerome Powell or pursue a different strategy focused more on the long-term direction of the Fed?
While Trump could be tempted to go the shadow-chair route — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in the past has advocated for that course — it might be an unappetizing choice for the nominee.

U.S. President Donald Trump points towards Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holding a document during a tour of the Federal Reserve Board building, which is currently undergoing renovations, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 24, 2025.
Kent Nishimura | Reuters

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler’s surprise resignation last week brought back a scenario that seemed to be fading but could have important ramifications for how the central bank conducts policy.
With the open seat on the influential central bank board, President Donald Trump now has a number of strategic options, including one where he could appoint a so-called shadow chair whose job would be largely to serve as an instigator until a successor to current Chair Jerome Powell could be named.

This in turn raises the tantalizing possibility that an institution historically known for collegiality and an ivory-toweresque approach to policy now will have to deal with a sudden dose of political intrigue.
Will Trump use the position to nominate a gadfly to torment Powell, a frequent target of blistering criticism from the president, or pursue a different strategy focused more on the long-term direction of the Fed?
“The president has two options. One is he can put a stop-gap appointment to fill the Kugler seat for the remaining four months of the unexpired term,” Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said Wednesday on CNBC. “Or he could just decide to compress the entire process and pick the person he wants to be the Fed chair now.”

Kugler’s decision to leave the Fed with little notice would be important under normal circumstances, but the nature of her situation on the board raises the ante.
Former President Joe Biden in 2023 named Kugler to the position, succeeding Lael Brainard, who moved over to the White House to serve as a senior economic advisor. Kugler served less than two years of Brainard’s unexpired term and left with only about six months remaining, accounting for the couple of months it will take for her replacement to be confirmed.

Taking into account the Senate calendar, the new governor would serve at best three or four months, then have to undergo yet another confirmation hearing should Trump decide to reappoint the person.
While Trump could be tempted to go the shadow-chair route — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in the past has advocated for that course — it might be an unappetizing choice for the nominee.
The shadow chair “is still just going to be one person among many, not enjoying the powers of the office of chairman,” Guha said.

‘Apprentice’ Fed-style

For Trump, though, selecting a shadow chair would be in keeping with his affinity for conflict and making people prove themselves, Guha added.
“He likes to run things like ‘Celebrity Apprentice,'” Trump’s former reality show on NBC, Guha said. “He likes to have people trialing, dueling it out with each other. So he might be tempted with the idea of putting somebody in the seat for a few months, see how they do, if they pass the audition, then be given the nod for the next Fed chair. So I suspect he’s probably pulled in both directions here.”
The time span that came with Kugler’s announcement carries added risk. If she had stayed in the seat, the appointment wouldn’t have come at least until her term expired in January and would have been for a full 14-year term on the board. The window between now and then created by the resignation carries both opportunity and peril.
Accepting such an appointment also is a dicey proposition.
Trump has made it clear he will only appoint governors who are in favor of cutting rates. The president has stated that he not only wants reductions, but is looking for dramatic moves, along the lines of 3 percentage points. Former Fed Chair and past Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on CNBC that Trump’s rate demands “should be frightening to markets.”
“A shadow chairman with only four months to go has some risk,” said Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel. “Someone can say something that annoys Trump. Maybe there they have to take a position that Trump doesn’t like. Just the time that we’re talking about increases the chances of that happening so it becomes a more difficult option. That being said, I think the administration thinks it’s an attractive idea, and does give them some flexibility.”

The next chair

The alternative to a shadow chair, at least regarding the Kugler vacancy, is to appoint the actual person who Trump wants to serve as chair, with the understanding that they would be nominated when Powell exits.
In that case, it would present a more conventional approach and not push the new governor into a potentially adversarial relationship with colleagues with whom he or she will serve for potentially the next 14 years.
“Maybe they do this as kind of a backup plan to make sure that they have the person they want in place when the Powell chairmanship ends in in May,” Gardner says.
White House officials did not respond to a request for comment.
Trump told CNBC on Tuesday that he has the choice for Kugler’s seat down to four finalists — former Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett and two unnamed candidates. One of those in contention is thought to be current Governor Christopher Waller. Other names mentioned included economist and former World Bank President David Malpass as well as economist Judy Shelton, whom Trump tried to appoint during his first term but failed to clear Senate approval.
Betting markets are split between Warsh and Hassett as the favorite, with Shelton also drawing some interest. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has taken himself out of contention, Trump told CNBC.
Assuming Powell leaves the board after his tenure as chair ends, Trump has the chance to hold a majority of his appointees on the seven-member group. However, he would not have a majority on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which entails the seven governors plus a rotating cast of five regional presidents. His current appointees are Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, who also is the vice chair in charge of bank supervision.
Trump has promised a decision in the next few days. However, he also said he would name a Powell successor weeks ago and has not done so yet.
Yellen and others have criticized Trump for leaning so hard against the Fed for lower rates, something that previous presidents have done but in a much less public manner.
The concern is that Trump is treading on the Fed’s independence, something officials feel is vital for proper monetary policy free of political influence.
“There is going to be a bit of an institutional pushback from the Fed,” Gardner said, noting that Powell was at the Treasury Department in the early 1990s when President George H.W. Bush was pressuring then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan for lower rates. “I think it’s in a secure enough place for now, but things can change. So I don’t think it’s existential now, but of course, it’s a fluid situation.” More

An investor will take on more risk only if they expect higher returns in compensation. The idea is a cornerstone of financial theory. Yet look around today and you have to wonder. Risks to growth—whether from fraught geopolitics or vast government borrowing—are becoming ever-more fearsome. Meanwhile, stockmarkets across much of the world are at or within touching distance of record highs. In America and Europe, the extra yield from buying high-risk corporate bonds instead of government debt is close to its narrowest in over a decade. Speculative manias rage around everything from cryptocurrencies and meme stocks to Pokémon cards. More

WHEN WESTERN countries began boycotting Russian oil in 2022, India saw an opportunity. Some 2.6m barrels a day (b/d) of crude once destined for Europe were available—at a sweet discount. India, which bought next to no oil from Russia in 2021, pounced. It has remained Russia’s biggest customer ever since. Today it imports nearly 2m b/d of Russian “sour”, heavy crude, representing 35-40% of its crude imports. The supply reduces India’s import bill at a time when the world’s fastest-growing big economy burns ever more petroleum. Local refiners make a killing by processing the stuff into fuels that they then export at full cost. More

After a massive rally in July and early August, Opendoor hit a snag on Tuesday with a disappointing outlook.
CEO Carrie Wheeler thanked new investors on the earnings call, and said “We appreciate your enthusiasm for what we’re building, and we’re listening intently to your feedback.”
The company said it expects to face a challenging macro environment for the rest of the year and that it’s reducing marketing spending.

Courtesy: Opendoor

With Opendoor shares up almost fivefold since the beginning of July and trading volumes hitting record levels, CEO Carrie Wheeler thanked investors for their “enthusiasm” on Tuesday’s earnings call.
“I want to acknowledge the great deal of interest in Opendoor lately and that we’re grateful for it,” Wheeler said, even as the stock sank more than 20% after hours. “We appreciate your enthusiasm for what we’re building, and we’re listening intently to your feedback.”

Prior to its recent surge, Opendoor’s stock had been mostly abandoned, falling as low as 51 cents in late June. The situation was so dire that the company was considering a reverse split that could lift the price of each share by as much 50 times as a potential way to keep its Nasdaq listing. Opendoor said last week that it’s back in compliance and canceled the reverse split proposal.
Opendoor’s business is centered around using technology to buy and sell homes, pocketing the gains. The company was founded in 2014 and went public through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) during the Covid-era boom of late 2020. But when interest rates began climbing in 2022, higher borrowing costs reduced demand for homes.
Revenue sank by about two-thirds from $15.6 billion in 2022 to $5.2 billion last year.
Much of the stock’s bounce in the past six weeks was spurred by hedge fund manager Eric Jackson, who announced in July that his firm had taken a position in Opendoor. Jackson said he believes Opendoor’s stock could eventually get to $82. It closed on Tuesday at $2.52, before dropping below $2 in extended trading.
Jackson’s bet is that a return to revenue growth and increased market share will lead to profitability, and that investors will start ascribing a reasonable sales multiple to the business.

The turnaround isn’t yet showing much evidence of working. For the second quarter, Opendoor reported a revenue increase of about 4% to $1.57 billion. Its net loss narrowed to $29 million, or 4 cents a share, from $92 million, or 13 cents, a year earlier.
In the current quarter, Opendoor is projecting just $800 million to $875 million in revenue, which would represent a decline of at least 36% from a year earlier. Opendoor said it expects to acquire just 1,200 homes in the the third quarter, down from 1,757 in the second quarter and 3,504 in the third quarter of 2024. It’s also pulling down marketing spending.
“The housing market has further deteriorated over the course of the last quarter,” finance chief Selim Freiha said on Tuesday’s earnings call. “Persistently high mortgage rates continue to suppress buyer demand, leading to lower clearance and record new listings.”
Wheeler highlighted Opendoor’s effort to expand its business beyond so-called iBuying and into more of a referrals business that’s less capital intensive. She called it “the most important strategic shift in our history.”
Investors, who have been bidding up the stock in waves, were less than enthused with what they heard. But at least there are finally people listening.
“This increased visibility is an opportunity to tell our story to a broader audience,” Wheeler said. “We intend to make the most of it.”
WATCH: Fed locked into September rate cut More

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had all been floated as contenders to lead the central bank.
In a wide-ranging interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Trump spoke highly of Hassett and Warsh.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council (L), and Kevin Warsh, former governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

President Donald Trump’s fresh comments on potential candidates to replace Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve sparked a wave of speculation on prediction markets.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had all been floated as contenders to lead the central bank.

In a wide-ranging interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Trump spoke highly of Hassett and Warsh, while revealing that Bessent, enjoying his current post as Treasury Secretary, has taken himself out of contention.
“He’s very good,” Trump said, referring to Warsh. “Sometimes they’re all very good, until you put them in there, and then they don’t do so good. But … I think he’s a very good guy. I’d say Kevin and Kevin, both Kevins are very good.”

Arrows pointing outwards

Wagers on prediction market Kalshi moved quickly after Trump’s comment, assigning Hassett and Warsh a 35% chance each of being named the next Fed chair. Waller, whom Trump didn’t mention in the interview, has a 15% probability of being his pick and his odds decreased somewhat following the interview.
Both Hassett and Warsh have advocated for lower interest rates. Current Chair Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, has been a frequent target of Trump’s criticism for keeping rates elevated.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced Friday she is resigning effective this week, which Trump said “was a pleasant surprise.” The move allows Trump to install someone to the Fed Board of Governors, and the nominee could move into the chairman role when Powell’s term expires.

Judy Shelton, former economic advisor to Trump in his first term, was assigned a 6% chance to be Powell’s replacement on Kalshi. David Malpass, former government official who served as president of the World Bank Group from 2019 to 2023, currently has a 4% probability on the prediction market.
Trump himself even received a 1% vote to lead the Fed on Kalshi.

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Ilkercelik | Istock | Getty Images

We’re about to witness a regime change in productivity. Prepare for the “RIA of 1”: A single financial advisor supported by a collection of autonomous and augmented AI agents and applications.
This isn’t a whimsical notion; it’s the inevitable outcome of AI fundamentally transforming the advisory space, augmenting advisors and reshaping firm structures through unprecedented efficiency. This efficiency isn’t merely incremental; it represents a paradigm shift, far exceeding the capabilities of even the most sophisticated traditional tools.

AI-powered tools will enable advisory firms to prospect and convert. They will streamline client onboarding and service. AI will enable these firms to design, track, and adjust portfolios, as well as generate personalized proposals, commentaries, and reports. Autonomous AI agents will replace most operational roles, handling tasks like form-filling and data management.
Beyond routine tasks like form-filling and data management, autonomous AI agents will handle complex back-office operations, including regulatory reporting and transaction reconciliation, allowing human advisors to dedicate their time to high-value strategic planning and client empathy. This shift will create lean, AI-centric firms where operational staff that support advisors are largely replaced by technology, paving the way for the “RIA of one” and “wealth enterprises of a few.”

You will benefit

Individual investors stand to gain significantly. They will receive higher quality, more personalized, and more responsive advice. This means an investor could receive hyper-personalized financial plans that dynamically adjust to market shifts and personal life events in real-time, or get immediate answers to complex financial questions, leading to a truly integrated and responsive advisory experience. Some of the improvements in a wealth firm’s advisory margins may be transferred to clients.
Critically, the lower cost of delivering advice will make quality financial advice accessible to many more. This democratization of advice will particularly benefit middle-income families and younger generations, who have historically found quality financial planning cost-prohibitive. AI will make it feasible to offer specialized advice, from tax planning to estate considerations, at a fraction of the traditional cost, reaching a much broader demographic. An advisor will now serve 500 clients instead of 100. As a result, more people will gain access to advice with the same number of advisors.
These changes challenge the consensus view of an impending financial advisor shortage, often citing forecasts like McKinsey’s projection of 100,000 more advisors needed by 2034, or the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 15% growth of financial advisors from 2022 to 2032. Such forecasts account for the advice gap but overlook the non-linear shift happening in productivity.

The conventional wisdom underlying these forecasts often assumes a linear relationship between client growth and advisor numbers. However, AI introduces a non-linear leap in capacity; a single AI-empowered advisor can effectively manage the needs of hundreds of clients with the same, or even greater, personal attention than a traditional advisor could offer to a fraction of that number. Existing advisors, amplified by AI, will serve vastly more clients, disproving predictions of a shortfall.
The industry faces intriguing questions as AI reshapes its structure. Will larger firms gain an edge over smaller RIA firms through internal tech, potentially consolidating market share by leveraging superior AI development capabilities? Will smaller RIAs transform themselves with AI partners, becoming more lucrative businesses and slowing down ongoing consolidation, perhaps even creating a new wave of highly specialized, tech-driven boutique firms? Will consolidators increase acquisition prices as they see clearer operational value that can be created, recognizing that AI tools will significantly enhance profitability post-acquisition?
Though these are early days of AI applications, the first glimpses of the “Frontier Advisor” using AI and tackling many more clients signals a clear shift. Slow adoption or superficial integration of AI will be fatal for firms in the medium term.Dr. Vinay Nair is the founder and CEO of TIFIN, a fintech platform using AI to build products for the wealth, insurance and asset management industries. Previously, Nair was the founder of 55ip, which was acquired by JPMorgan Chase. More

Changes to the American labor market brought on by the arrival of generative AI are already showing up in employment data, according to a Goldman Sachs economist.
There are signs of a hiring pullback in the technology sector, hitting younger employees there the hardest, according to Joseph Briggs, senior global economist of Goldman’s research division.
Unemployment rates among tech workers between 20 and 30 years old jumped by 3 percentage points since the start of this year, Briggs said.

A screen displays the the company logo for Goldman Sachs on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 7, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Changes to the American labor market brought on by the arrival of generative AI are already showing up in employment data, according to a Goldman Sachs economist.
Most companies have yet to deploy artificial intelligence in production cases, meaning that the overall job market hasn’t yet been significantly impacted by AI, said Joseph Briggs, senior global economist of Goldman’s research division, in a podcast episode shared first with CNBC.

But there are already signs of a hiring pullback in the technology sector, hitting younger employees there the hardest, Briggs said.
“If you look at the tech sector’s employment trends, they’ve been basically growing as a share of overall employment in a remarkably linear manner for the last 20 years,” Briggs said on the episode of “Goldman Sachs Exchanges” to be aired Tuesday.
“Over the last three years, we’ve actually seen a pullback in tech hiring that has led it to undershoot its trend,” he said.
Since its November 2022 release, OpenAI’s ChatGPT has fueled the rise of the world’s most valuable company, Nvidia, and forced entire industries to contend with its implications. Generative AI models are quickly becoming adept at handling many routine tasks, and some experts say they are already on par with human software engineers, for instance.
That has sparked concerns that while automation will make companies more productive and enrich shareholders, swaths of the job market could be impacted in the coming years.

Technology executives have recently become more candid about the impact of AI on employees. Companies including Alphabet and Microsoft have said AI is producing roughly 30% of the code on some projects, and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said in June that AI handles as much as 50% of the work at his company.
Young tech workers, whose jobs are the easiest to automate, are the first concrete signs of displacement, according to Briggs.
Unemployment rates among tech workers between 20 and 30 years old jumped by 3 percentage points since the start of this year, he said. Briggs recently co-authored a report titled “Quantifying the Risks of AI-Related Job Displacement” that cites labor market data from IPUMS and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
“This is a much larger increase than we’ve seen in the tech sector more broadly [and] a larger increase than we’ve seen for other young workers,” he said.

‘Labor substitution’

The approach from tech CEOs has been to hold off on hiring junior employees as they begin to deploy AI, said George Lee, the former technology banker who co-heads the Goldman Sachs Global Institute.
“How do I begin to streamline my enterprise so I can be more flexible and more adaptive… yet without harming our competitive edge?” Lee said in the podcast episode. “Young employees for this period of time are a little bit the casualty of that.”
Over time, roughly 6% to 7% of all workers could lose their jobs because of automation from AI in a baseline scenario, according to Briggs.
The transition could be more painful, both to workers and the U.S. economy, if adoption among companies happens faster than the roughly decade-long period he assumes, Briggs said.
That could either be because of technological advances or an economic slowdown that encourages companies to cut costs, he said.
If AI researchers achieve AGI, or artificial general intelligence, that equals a person’s ability to learn and adapt across domains, instead of being narrowly deployed, the impact on workers would be more profound, the Goldman economist said.
“Our analysis doesn’t factor in the potential for the emergence of AGI,” Briggs said. “It’s hard to even start thinking about the impact on the labor market, but I would guess there probably and undoubtedly is more room for labor substitution and a more disruptive impact in that world.” More

When a woman of child-bearing age in Salt Lake City was growing up, her parents were typically religious, had married before they turned 25 and would go on to stay together. Her life today is similar: Utah is even more religious; more children grow up in two-parent households than anywhere else in America. There is just one difference. Today’s mother would have grown up as one of three siblings, yet she has fewer than two children herself. More