Finance

Warren Buffett poses with Martin, the Geico gecko, ahead of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder’s Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 3rd, 2024.
David A. Grogan | CNBC

Warren Buffett went on bit of a shopping spree in the stock market before Christmas, picking up shares of Occidental Petroleum among others during a swift December sell-off.
Berkshire Hathaway purchased additional 8.9 million shares in the Houston-based energy producer for $405 million through transactions Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, pushing its stake above 28%, according to a regulatory filing late Thursday night.

During the same time frame, the Omaha-based conglomerate also bought about 5 million shares of Sirius XM for around $113 million as well as about 234,000 shares of VeriSign for roughly $45 million. These two stakes are much smaller in size, so these transactions could be made by Buffett’s investing lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler.
All told, Berkshire bought over $560 million worth of stocks over the last three sessions.
The 92-year-old legendary investor appeared to have taken advantage of a broad market pullback that made these stocks much cheaper.
Occidental shares have dropped more than 10% this month, bringing its 2024 losses to 24%. The energy company, once known for being founded by legendary oilman Armand Hammer, is Berkshire’s sixth-biggest equity holding. Buffett has ruled out a full takeover.

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Occidental Petroleum

The sell-off in Sirius XM has been more dramatic. The New York-based satellite radio company is currently in its six-day losing streak, falling 23% this month and 62% this year.

Berkshire started hiking this bet after billionaire John Malone’s Liberty Media completed its deal in early September to combine its tracking stocks with the rest of the audio entertainment company. Now, Berkshire’s stake has risen to about 35%. SiriusXM has been grappling with subscriber losses and unfavorable demographic shifts.
Internet name VeriSign has also had a rough year with its stock down 6% in 2024, significantly underperforming the tech sector. Berkshire first bought the tech stock in 2013 and hasn’t adjusted the stake in years. More

A television station broadcasts the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — spiked by the second biggest percentage in its history on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve jolted the stock market by saying it would dial back its rate-cutting campaign.
The CBOE Volatility Index surged 74% to close at 27.62, up from around 15 earlier in the day. That surge is the second-greatest in history, behind a 115% leap to above the 37 handle back in February 2018 when there was a blow-up in funds tracking the volatility index.

Arrows pointing outwards

Wednesday’s move comes after the central bank said it will likely lower interest rates just twice next year, down from the four cuts it projected back in September, alarming investors who wanted low rates to keep fueling the bull market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled by 1,100 points to its 10th straight loss.
Typically, a value greater than 20 in the VIX indicates a higher level of fear in the market. However, for most of this year, the VIX had been suppressed below that level, worrying investors who believed the market had gotten overly complacent.
The VIX is calculated based on the prices of put and call options on the S&P 500. A spike could indicate a rush by investors to purchase put options for protection in a decline.

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CBOE Volatility Index, 5 days

Still, there have been one other significant surge in the VIX in 2024. The third-biggest surge in the VIX in history occurred in Aug. 5, 2024, when fears of a U.S. recession, and a major unwind in the yen carry trade, spurred a roughly 65% increase in the VIX to close above 38. On an intraday basis, the VIX briefly topped 65 that day.
On Thursday, the VIX was last floating just above the 20 handle, down more than 25% from the prior day. More

WHY IS HOUSING so expensive? Explanations have tended to fall into two camps. One emphasises a gummed-up supply side: a range of restrictions on land use and NIMBY campaigners have stymied housebuilding across the rich world. The other camp focuses on demand: a long-term fall in real interest rates has bid up the prices of all assets. Cheaper credit means more expensive housing. Yet even as interest rates rose across the rich world in the early 2020s, prices barely budged. Why? A range of recent papers suggests that the interaction between fixed supply and changes in demand explains the puzzle. More

THE BRAZILIAN real holds an ignominious title this year: it is the worst-performing major currency, down by more than 20% to a record low of almost 6.3 to the dollar. The situation has grown even uglier over the past week, with the sell-off accelerating despite several interventions by the central bank. More

GIVING IS BIG business. In 2023 Americans alone handed $557bn to charities, according to the Giving USA annual report. So identifying which charities are the most efficient in terms of good done per dollar given is important. GiveWell, a charity evaluator, tries to do just this, and currently recommends giving to four worthy organisations. How is this recommendation put together, and how good is it? More

THE LIQUIDITY crunch could not have come at a worse time. Usually, most of Hizbullah’s budget arrives on a plane in Damascus, the Syrian capital, with the country’s Iranian ambassador. The cash is then transported across the Lebanese border to the Shia militia. But on December 8th, just weeks after Hizbullah stopped fighting with Israel in Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president and Iran’s ally, was overthrown. Iran evacuated officials and soldiers in Syria. Already financially emaciated, Hizbullah faces rebuilding deprived of its surest cash flow. More

Chinese autonomous trucking company TuSimple has rebranded to CreateAI, with a focus on video games and animation, the company announced Thursday.
Now, just over two years after CEO Cheng Lu rejoined the company in the role after being pushed out, he expects the business can break even in 2026.
CreateAI expects to lower the cost of top-tier, so-called triple A game production by 70% in the next five to six years, Cheng said.

Workers setting up the TuSimple booth for CES 2022 at the Las Vegas Convention Center on Jan. 3, 2022.
Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Embattled Chinese autonomous trucking company TuSimple has rebranded to CreateAI, focusing on video games and animation, the company announced Thursday.
The news comes as GM folded its Cruise robotaxi business this month, and the once-hot sector of self-driving startups has started to weed out stragglers. TuSimple, which straddled the U.S. and China markets, had its own challenges: concerns over vehicle safety, a $189 million settlement of a securities fraud lawsuit and delisting from the Nasdaq in February.

Now, just over two years after CEO Cheng Lu rejoined the company in the role after being pushed out, he expects the business can break even in 2026.
That’s thanks to a video game based on the hit martial arts novels by Jin Yong that’s slated to release an initial version that year, Cheng said. He anticipates “several hundred million” in revenue in 2027 when the full version is launched.
Before the delisting, TuSimple said it lost $500,000 in the first three quarters of 2023, and spent $164.4 million on research and development during that time.
Company co-founder Mo Chen has a “long history” with the Jin Yong family and started work in 2021 to develop an animated feature based on the stories, Cheng said.

The company claims its artificial intelligence capabilities in developing autonomous driving software give it a base from which to develop generative AI. That’s the next-level tech powering OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which generates human-like responses to user prompts.

Along with the CreateAI rebrand, the company debuted its first major AI model called Ruyi, an open-source model for visual work, available via the Hugging Face platform.
“It’s clear our shareholders see the value in this transformation and want to move forward in this direction,” Cheng said. “Our management team and Board of Directors have received overwhelming support from shareholders at the annual meeting.”
He said the company plans to increase headcount to around 500 next year, up from 300.

Cutting production costs by 70%

While still under the name TuSimple, the company in August announced a partnership with Shanghai Three Body Animation to develop the first animated feature film and video game based on the science fiction novel series “The Three-Body Problem.”
The company said at the time that it was launching a new business segment to develop generative AI applications for video games and animation.
CreateAI expects to lower the cost of top-tier, so-called triple A game production by 70% in the next five to six years, Cheng said. He declined to share whether the company was in talks with gaming giant Tencent.
When asked about the impact of U.S. restrictions, Cheng claimed there were no issues and said the company used a mix of China and non-China cloud computing providers.
The U.S. under the Biden administration has ramped up limits on Chinese businesses’ access to advanced semiconductors used to power generative AI. More

The Federal Open Market Committee cut its overnight borrowing rate to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, back to the level where it was in December 2022.
“Today was a closer call but we decided it was the right call,” Chair Jerome Powell said.
The Fed indicated that it probably would only lower twice more in 2025, according to the closely watched “dot plot” matrix of individual members’ future rate expectations.

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, the third consecutive reduction and one that came with a cautionary tone about additional cuts in coming years. 
In a move widely anticipated by markets, the Federal Open Market Committee cut its overnight borrowing rate to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, back to the level where it was in December 2022 when rates were on the move higher. 

Though there was little intrigue over the decision itself, the main question had been over what the Fed would signal about its future intentions as inflation holds steadily above target and economic growth is fairly solid, conditions that don’t normally coincide with policy easing. 
Read what changed in the Fed statement.

In delivering the 25 basis point cut, the Fed indicated that it probably would only lower twice more in 2025, according to the closely watched “dot plot” matrix of individual members’ future rate expectations. The two cuts indicated slice in half the committee’s intentions when the plot was last updated in September. 
Assuming quarter-point increments, officials indicated two more reductions in 2026 and another in 2027. Over the longer term, the committee sees the “neutral” funds rate at 3%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the September update as the level has drifted gradually higher this year. 
“With today’s action, we have lowered our policy rate by a full percentage point from its peak, and our policy stance is now significantly less restrictive,” Chair Jerome Powell said at his post-meeting news conference. “We can therefore be more cautious as we consider further adjustments to our policy rate.”

“Today was a closer call but we decided it was the right call,” he added.
Stocks sold off sharply following the Fed announcement, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down more than 1,100 points while Treasury yields soared. Futures pricing pared back the outlook for cuts in 2025, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.
“We moved pretty quickly to get to here, and I think going forward obviously we’re moving slower,” Powell said.
For the second consecutive meeting, one FOMC member dissented: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanted the Fed to maintain the previous rate. Governor Michelle Bowman voted no in November, the first time a governor voted against a rate decision since 2005. 
The fed funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but also influences a variety of consumer debt such as auto loans, credit cards and mortgages. 
The post-meeting statement changed little except for a tweak regarding the “extent and timing” of further rate changes, a slight language shift from the November meeting. Goldman Sachs said the adjustment was “hinting at a slower pace of rate cuts ahead.”

Change in economic outlook

The cut came even though the committee jacked up its projection for full-year 2024 gross domestic product growth to 2.5%, half a percentage point higher than September. However, in the ensuing years the officials expect GDP to slow down to its long-term projection of 1.8%. 
Other changes to the Summary of Economic Projections saw the committee lower its expected unemployment rate this year to 4.2%, while headline and core inflation according to the Fed’s preferred gauge were pushed higher to respective estimates of 2.4% and 2.8%, slightly higher than the September estimate and above the Fed’s 2% goal. 
The committee’s decision comes with inflation not only holding above the central bank’s target but also while the economy is projected by the Atlanta Fed to grow at a 3.2% rate in the fourth quarter and the unemployment rate has hovered around 4%. 

Though those conditions would be most consistent with the Fed hiking or holding rates in place, officials are wary of keeping rates too high and risking an unnecessary slowdown in the economy. Despite macro data to the contrary, a Fed report earlier this month noted that economic growth had only risen “slightly” in recent weeks, with signs of inflation waning and hiring slowing. 
Moreover, the Fed will have to deal with the impact of fiscal policy under President-elect Donald Trump, who has indicated plans for tariffs, tax cuts and mass deportations that all could be inflationary and complicate the central bank’s job.
“We need to take our time, not rush and make a very careful assessment, but only when we’ve actually seen what the policies are and how they’ve been implemented,” Powell said of the Trump plans. “We’re just not at that stage.”

Normalizing policy

Powell has indicated that the rate cuts are an effort to recalibrate policy as it does not need to be as restrictive under the current conditions. 
“We think the economy is in [a] really good place. We think policy is in a really good place,” he said Wednesday.
With Wednesday’s move, the Fed will have cut benchmark rates by a full percentage point since September, a month during which it took the unusual step of lowering by a half point. The Fed generally likes to move up or down in smaller quarter-point increments as its weighs the impact of its actions. 
Despite the aggressive moves lower, markets have taken the opposite tack. 
Mortgage rates and Treasury yields both have risen sharply during the period, possibly indicating that markets do not believe the Fed will be able to cut much more. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.3%, putting it above the range of the Fed’s rate.
In related action, the Fed adjusted the rate it pays on its overnight repo facility to the bottom end of the fed funds rate. The so-called ON RPP rate is used as a floor for the funds rate, which had been drifting toward the lower end of the target range.

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