Finance

The typical worker will get a 4.1% annual raise for 2025, down from 4.5%, according to a WTW survey.
That growth is still high relative to the recent past.
Company pay increases are largely dictated by supply-and-demand dynamics in the labor market.
The job market has cooled from a scorching level in 2021 and 2022.

Hinterhaus Productions | Stone | Getty Images

Many workers will see their annual raise shrink next year as the job market continues to cool from its torrid pace in the pandemic era.
The typical worker will get a 4.1% pay raise for 2025, down from 4.5% this year, according to a new poll by WTW, a consulting firm.

This is a midyear estimate from 1,888 U.S. organizations that use a fiscal calendar year. Actual raises may change by year-end when the companies finalize their salary budgets.

The size of workers’ salary increases is “driven primarily” by the supply and demand of labor, said Lori Wisper, WTW’s work and rewards global solutions leader. Affordability and industry dynamics play lesser roles, she added.
Companies in the survey would likely pay their annual raises by April 1, 2025, she said.

Job market was ‘unbelievably robust’

Worker pay in 2021 and 2022 grew at its fastest pace in well over a decade amid an “unbelievably robust” job market, Wisper said.
Demand for workers hit records as Covid-19 vaccines rolled out and the U.S. economy reopened broadly. Workers quit their jobs readily for better, higher-paying ones, a trend dubbed the great resignation. More than 50 million people quit in 2022, a record.

Companies had to raise salaries more than usual to compete for scarce talent and retain employees.

The prevalence of incentives like signing bonuses also “grew dramatically,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.
Almost 7% of online job listings offered a signing bonus in 2021, roughly double the pre-pandemic share, according to ZipRecruiter data. The percentage has dropped to 3.8% in 2024.
“I’m not sure I’ll ever see that kind of job market in my lifetime again,” Wisper said of 2021 and 2022.
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Now, the job market has cooled. Hiring, quits and job openings have declined and the unemployment rate has increased.
Companies may feel they don’t need to offer as much money if they’re not getting as many applications and have fewer job openings, Pollak said.

Almost half — 47% — of U.S. organizations expect their salary budgets to be lower for 2025, according to WTW. (Companies set a salary budget and use that pool of money to pay raises to workers.)  
The current environment “feels like we’re seeing more normal circumstances, where demand is back to where it was pre-pandemic in 2018 and 2019, which was still a very healthy job market,” Wisper said.
Additionally, after two years of declining buying power amid high inflation, the lessening of pricing pressures in recent months has boosted workers’ buying power.

Still high relative to recent past

While the typical 4.1% projected raise is smaller than that during the last pay cycle, it’s “still kind of high” relative to recent years, according to Wisper.
For example, the median annual pay raise had largely hovered around 3% in the years after the 2008 financial crisis, she said.

The increase to more than 4% during the pandemic era was notable: Salary growth tends to fall instead of rise, Wisper said. For example, it was around 4.5% to 5% in the years leading up to the financial crisis, and had never fully recovered, she said.
It’s “something that’s never happened before,” Wisper said. “And [the raises] have stuck, to a degree.”

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Four of the world’s largest chip equipment manufacturers have more than doubled the share of their China revenue since late 2022, Bank of America analysts said.
“China accelerated its purchase of semi manufacturing equipment since the U.S. imposed tighter export restrictions in October 2022, aiming to develop its own semi manufacturing capability,” the report said.
The research found the companies’ China revenue more than doubled from 17% of total revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 41% in the first quarter of 2024.

A worker produces chips at a semiconductor manufacturing enterprise in Binzhou, China, on June 4, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — Four of the world’s largest semiconductor equipment manufacturers, including ASML, have seen the share of their China revenue more than double since late 2022, Bank of America analysts said in a report Monday.
“China accelerated its purchase of semi manufacturing equipment since the U.S. imposed tighter export restrictions in October 2022, aiming to develop its own semi manufacturing capability,” the report said.

The BofA analysis looked at Lam Research, ASML, KLA Corp. and Applied Materials.
The research found the companies’ China revenue more than doubled from 17% of their total revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 41% in the first quarter of 2024.
“Tech, especially semi, is at the center stage of trade tensions with China, which could be more at risk if tensions further escalate from here,” the report said.
The U.S. in October 2022 started imposing sweeping export controls on U.S. sales of advanced semiconductors and related manufacturing equipment to China. Last week, Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that the Biden administration was considering broader restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports to China that could affect non-U.S. companies.
Beijing, meanwhile, has sought to bolster its tech self-sufficiency, a goal top leaders reaffirmed at a key policy meeting last week.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which tracks U.S.-listed chip companies, has fallen in the last week but is still holding gains of nearly 46% for the year so far. More

A dog looks out the window from a Tesla electric vehicle charging at a Tesla Supercharger location in Santa Monica, California, on May 15, 2024.
Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines in extended trading:
Alphabet — The tech giant slipped 1% despite a beat on both top and bottom lines in the second quarter. Alphabet earned $1.89 per share on $84.74 billion in revenue. Consensus estimates had called for earnings of $1.84 per share on $84.19 billion in revenue. However, revenue at its YouTube advertising segment missed forecasts.

Tesla — Shares of the electric vehicle maker declined 4.7% after second-quarter earnings missed consensus estimates. Tesla reported adjusted earnings per share at 52 cents, while analysts surveyed by LSEG had called for 62 cents per share. On the other hand, the company posted $25.5 billion in quarterly revenue, which was slightly higher than the $24.77 billion estimated by the Street. 
Visa — Shares slipped more than 2% after the company posted a revenue miss in its fiscal third quarter. Visa reported $8.9 billion in revenue, which came in slightly below the $8.92 billion forecast by analysts polled by LSEG. Meanwhile, payments volume rose 7% in the quarter. 
Seagate — Shares rallied more than 6% after Seagate posted an earnings and revenue beat in the fiscal fourth quarter. Seagate earned $1.05 per share, excluding items, on $1.89 billion in revenue. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had estimated it would earn 75 cents per share on revenue of $1.87 billion. The company cited an improving cloud environment for its stronger performance.
Capital One Financial — Shares of the credit card issuer fell about 1% after its second-quarter profit fell from a year ago as the bank put aside more money to offset potential credit losses. Revenue rose 5% to $9.51 billion from the year-ago period, but was lower than analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected.
Texas Instruments — The chipmaker rallied 5% after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Texas Instruments recorded $1.22 in earnings per share versus the consensus estimate of $1.17 per share, per LSEG. The company’s revenue of $3.82 billion came in line with forecasts.

Mattel — The toymaker advanced more than 1% after announcing its second-quarter results. Its adjusted earnings per share of 19 cents topped analysts’ estimates for 17 cents per share, according to LSEG data. Revenue of $1.08 billion slightly missed forecasts of $1.1 billion. Mattel reiterated its full-year guidance and highlighted its gross margin expansion.
Cal-Maine Foods — Shares of the nation’s largest egg producer fell 1% as the avian flu outbreak continues to pressure its performance. In the fiscal fourth quarter, earnings of $2.32 per share were higher than a year ago, but shy of the $2.41 per share analysts predicted, according to FactSet. Sales of $640.8 million also fell short of the $652.3 million estimate.
Enphase Energy — The solar energy stock added 5% despite weaker-than-expected second-quarter results. Enphase posted earnings of 43 cents per share, after adjustments, which was 5 cents below consensus estimates, according to LSEG. Revenue of $304 million also fell short of the $310 million analysts forecast. However, shares rose on better-than-expected margins and its third-quarter forecast of between $370 million and $410 million in revenue, which was above the $404 million analyst estimate.
Chubb — The insurance company gained nearly 1%. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $5.38 in the second quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $5.14 per share, per FactSet. 
— CNBC’s Christina Cheddar Berk contributed reporting. More

Over the past two decades China has devoured enormous amounts of raw materials. Its population has grown bigger and richer, requiring more dairy, grain and meat. Its giant industries have been ravenous for energy and metals. In recent years, though, the economy has suffered from political mismanagement and a property crisis. Chinese officials are adamant that they want to shift away from resource-intensive industries. Logic dictates that the country’s appetite for commodities should be shrinking, and shrinking fast.In reality, the opposite is happening. Last year China’s imports of many basic resources broke records, and imports of all types of commodities surged by 16% in volume terms. They are still rising, up by 6% in the first five months of this year. Given the country’s economic struggles, this does not reflect growing consumption. Instead, China appears to be stockpiling materials at a rapid pace—and at a time when commodities are expensive. Policymakers in Beijing seem to be worried about new geopolitical threats, not least that a new, hawkish American president could seek to choke crucial supply routes to China. More

Rana Robillard, chief people officer at software startup Tekion, was tricked into sending her life savings to a criminal.
What happened to Robillard, a 25-year veteran of tech companies, speaks to the increasingly sophisticated nature of cybercrime.
Real estate, with its large transaction sizes and frequent use of wire transfers, has proven to be an especially lucrative target for criminals.

Rana Robillard, an Oakland-based tech executive, in front of the home in Orinda, CA that she attempted to purchase earlier this year.
Courtesy: Rana Robillard

After a yearlong search, Rana Robillard was elated to learn she’d beaten three other bidders for a house in the leafy California suburb of Orinda, just outside of San Francisco.
So when Robillard, chief people officer at software startup Tekion, received an email in late January from her mortgage broker with directions to wire a $398,359.58 down payment to a JPMorgan Chase account, she wasted no time sending the money.

After all, the email appeared to be a response to one Robillard had sent her broker asking about final steps before the closing, which was rapidly approaching.
But on Jan. 30, the day after she’d sent the wire, Robillard got what looked like a duplicate request for the down payment, and it dawned on her that she had fallen for a scam — one that would throw her life into turmoil for the next six months. To her horror, instead of sending a down payment for her future home to the title company, as she believed she had done, Robillard had been tricked into sending her life savings to a criminal.
“That’s when I went into a full panic,” Robillard, 55, told CNBC, which verified the details of her story with the four banks involved.
What happened to Robillard, a 25-year veteran of tech companies including cybersecurity firm HackerOne, speaks to the increasingly sophisticated nature of cybercrime. Fraudsters are able to penetrate the email systems of mortgage brokers, real estate agents, lawyers or other advisors, waiting for the perfect moment to strike by sending emails or phone calls that appear to be from trusted parties.
Real estate, with its large transaction sizes and frequent use of wire transfers, has proven to be an especially lucrative target for criminals. Wires are faster than other forms of payment, typically closing within 24 hours, can handle far larger sums and are often irreversible, making them ideal for fraud.

Scams involving fake emails in real estate deals have exploded over the last decade, rising from less than $9 million in losses in 2015 to $446.1 million by 2022, according to FBI data.

Once criminals have a victim’s money, they quickly shuffle it to other bank accounts before withdrawing it as cash, converting it into crypto or exploiting mules to launder the funds, according to Naftali Harris, CEO of anti-fraud startup SentiLink. That’s why recovering funds in wire fraud can be so difficult, he added.
“The faster the fraudster moves it out of that first account and the more institutions they move it to, the better for them, because it just gets murkier and harder to track,” Harris said.
That’s what initially happened to Robillard’s funds, which went from a JPMorgan Chase account to ones at Citigroup and Ally Bank, according to people with knowledge of her case who weren’t authorized to speak publicly.
Robillard had alerted her bank, Charles Schwab, of the fraud on Jan. 30; within days, an official working in the cyber branch of the San Francisco division of the FBI had this message:
“Funds have been located and are frozen,” the official said, according to a Feb. 2 email reviewed by CNBC. “That’s all I’m allowed to tell you.”

Waiting for months

After that promising start, Robillard’s frustrations have only mounted.
Robillard says she was initially told that her funds would likely be released after 90 days. But as the weeks and months stretched on, there were few updates from JPMorgan, which has taken the lead on the case, she said.
The FBI told her that once the banks involved had frozen the funds, its role was over, she said. So Robillard became obsessed with advocating for herself, reaching out to elected officials and government agencies including the Federal Trade Commission and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
“Nobody will give you any updates or information,” Robillard said. “I’ve been very assertive trying to get people to help; every week I’m following up with random people on LinkedIn from Chase, I’m filing to the California attorney general, the FTC, the CFPB, but it’s gotten me nowhere.”
In early July, Robillard told CNBC she had no idea whether she would ever see her money again.
And while she’s been in financial limbo, the world has moved on. The home she had envisioned living in with her daughter — a newly renovated four bedroom on nearly half an acre of land — has been relisted by Opendoor for $1.63 million.

Rana Robillard, an Oakland-based tech executive, in front of the home in Orinda, CA that she attempted to purchase earlier this year.
Courtesy: Rana Robillard

Robillard says she decided to publicize her story to boost awareness of real estate wire fraud, besides being a last-ditch attempt at getting her money back.
“This is not what I thought my public representation would look like, which is that I’ve lost all this money,” Robillard said. “If it helps other people, I’m happy to do it, even though it’s obviously not my proudest moment.”

Room for improvement

Robillard acknowledges that she could’ve been more cautious before initiating the wire transfer. For one, she says she should’ve confirmed with OS National, the title company owned by Opendoor, that the wire request sent to her in January was an authentic one.
But Robillard also sees ample room for improvement in all the parties involved: Her real estate agent should’ve explained that wire directions would be coming directly from the title company; the banks should’ve verified that the receiving account was that of a genuine title company and not a fraudster; and her mortgage broker should’ve used a secure portal for document sharing.
In a chain of more than 20 emails seen by CNBC between Robillard and her mortgage processor, Kristy Aichinger of Compass Mortgage Advisors, just one was sent by the cybercriminal. It was indistinguishable from the rest.
While Martinez, California-based Compass Mortgage denies being hacked, it acknowledged that the email with wire directions wasn’t from them, according to Robillard.
When reached by phone last week, Aichinger declined to comment and referred a reporter to the company’s founder and president, Kent Donahue.
Donahue didn’t respond to several detailed messages about this story.

‘We are sorry’

After more than five months in limbo, Robillard finally caught a break.
A few days after CNBC contacted the banks in early July about the Robillard case, she received a $150,000 wire from Chase, funds that had been bounced back from Ally. Then, on Thursday, Robillard got the balance of her down payment that had been at Citi, nearly $250,000.
A JPMorgan spokesman had the following comment:
“We are sorry to hear that Ms. Robillard was tricked into sending funds from her real estate transaction to an imposter,” the spokesman said. “Although she’s not our customer, we were able to recover all of her funds.”
Further, JPMorgan said that consumers should be wary of last-minute changes to payment instructions and to always verify wire recipients before sending money.
Robillard’s bank, Schwab, told CNBC that it urged customers to “remain vigilant in protecting their personal information, and stay skeptical when it comes to financial transactions.”
Robillard still doesn’t know who was behind the scam.
While overjoyed that she can finally begin a new home search, the tech executive struck a pessimistic note.
The real estate industry has gotten used to closing transactions electronically, which is efficient, but leaves buyers open to fraud, she said. Advances in artificial intelligence will give criminals more tools to impersonate those they trust to steal Americans’ money, she warned.
“The banks and real estate companies weren’t even prepared for the old world, how are they going to handle the new one?” Robillard said. “Nobody’s ready for what’s coming.” More

Mortgages used to be a tough sell in Russia. Decades of Soviet propaganda, which denounced credit as an unbearable burden, had an effect. Even after the end of communism, Russians still referred to mortgages as “debt slavery”, preferring to save until they could buy their homes outright. Vladimir Putin, the country’s president, has spent two decades trying to convince his citizens to take a different view. In 2003, during his first term, he explained that mortgages might help solve “the acute problem of housing” facing Russians. His plea fell on deaf ears. More

Immigrants are increasingly unwelcome. Over half of Americans favour “deporting all immigrants living in the US illegally back to their home country”, up from a third in 2016. Just 10% of Australians favour more immigration, a sharp fall from a few years ago. Sir Keir Starmer, Britain’s new centre-left prime minister, wants Britain to be “less reliant on migration by training more UK workers”. Anthony Albanese, Australia’s slightly longer-serving centre-left prime minister, recently said his country’s migration system “wasn’t working properly” and wants to cut net migration in half. And that is before you get to Donald Trump, who pledges mass deportations if he wins America’s presidential election—an example populist parties across Europe hope to follow. More

The money flow into small caps may not be a rotation from winning growth trades.
Dave Nadig, ETF journalist and financial futurist, sees investors “just buying, buying, buying.”

“What we’re seeing is a diversification trade,” he told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “We’re seeing flows into everything, and that to me means people are looking to get a little bit broader in their exposure which is smart in an election year.”
Nadig contends broadening exposure in portfolios helps absorb volatility in the months leading up to presidential elections.
“[Investors] are now, for the first time in ages, buying value, buying some of these defensive sectors, buying small caps. But they haven’t stopped buying the other things as well,” he said. “I think this is money coming in from that giant bucket of money markets that we know is sitting out there.”
When it comes to the small-cap trade, Nadig thinks it’s too early to determine whether the upside is sustainable.
“If we have a sustained rally in small caps, and by sustained, I mean, like we have two or three months where small caps of all varieties are clearly beating the pants off large caps, then I think you’ll see a ton of money chase that performance that always happens,” Nadig said.

“If what we’re seeing instead is just a re-diversification trade, I think you would expect this to sort of bobble along a little bit here for the rest of the year,” he added.
The Russell 2000, which tracks small caps, fell 0.6% on Friday. But it outperformed the Dow Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. Plus, the Russell 2000 squeezed out a gain for the week — up almost 2%. The index is now up almost 8% over the past month. But it’s been largely flat since President Joe Biden took office in January 2021.

‘I don’t suspect this big wave coming out of cash’

Anna Paglia, who develops global ETF strategies for State Street Global Advisors, sees expectations for interest rate cuts as a catalyst for strength in sector laggards.
“Investors are really getting comfortable with risk, and there will be momentum,” said Paglia, the firm’s chief business officer.
However, she doesn’t see investors tapping into their money market accounts because people want cash for a reason.
“Most of it is sticky. I don’t suspect this big wave coming out of cash,” Paglia said. “I don’t think that there will be this huge wave of investors coming out of money market funds and reallocating to the stock market or to ETFs.”

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