Finance

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

Monday – Friday, 5:00 – 6:00 PM ET

Fast Money Podcast
Full Episodes

There’s a 40% chance President Joe Biden will not seek reelection, according to Stifel Washington strategist Brian Gardner.
If Biden stays in the race, Gardner contends the Democratic Party may still see a favorable outcome.
This is a “make or break week” for the president’s campaign as Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess, Gardner said.

There’s a 40% chance President Joe Biden will not seek reelection, according to Stifel.
Brian Gardner, the firm’s chief Washington policy strategist, is out with a research note that calls it a “make or break week” for the president’s campaign as Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess.

“There’s a 60% chance, more likely than not, that he’s going to stay in,” Gardner told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “Biden loves to prove the smart kids in the Democratic Party wrong. So, the more he hears voices from the elites that he needs to get out, the more he digs in his heels.”

Arrows pointing outwards

Gardner, who advises equity analysts on how White House policy could affect their coverage areas, thinks Democrats who are urging Biden to drop out face a considerable obstacle.
“They lack leverage. They can try to persuade Mr. Biden to drop out of the race, but they cannot force him out,” Gardner told clients on Monday. “It is a fantasy to think that at least half of Mr. Biden’s most dedicated supporters will turn on him and not vote to nominate him.”
While concerns about the president’s age have persisted throughout his latest bid for the Oval Office, a poor debate performance in June has changed the tenor of the conversation. Polling data and financial markets are starting to reflect a shift in sentiment that favors former President Donald Trump.
If Biden stays in the race, however, Gardner contends the Democratic Party may still see a favorable outcome.

“There’s a certain level of voter that is just never going to vote for Donald Trump no matter what,” Gardner said.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

Job scams are an emerging threat. They surged 118% in 2023 from 2022, according to the Identity Theft Resource Center.
Scammers may pose as recruiters or post fake job ads in order to get sensitive personal and financial information from job seekers.
Improvements in artificial intelligence and the rise of remote work are big contributors to the growth in employment scams, experts said.

Ridvan_celik | E+ | Getty Images

Employment scams surged last year, as criminals leveraged artificial intelligence to steal money and personal information from unsuspecting job seekers, experts said.
Consumer reports of job scams jumped 118% in 2023 from the prior year, according to a recent report by the Identity Theft Resource Center.

Thieves generally pose as recruiters and post fake job listings to entice applicants, then steal valuable information during the “interview” process.
Often, they put these phony listings on reputable websites like LinkedIn and other job search platforms, ITRC said, making it tough to disentangle truth from fiction.

The typical victim loses about $2,000

A chief danger is divulging information about financial accounts or sensitive personal data (like a Social Security number) that criminals can then use to steal a job seeker’s identity.
Consumers reported losing $367 million to job and business opportunity scams in 2022, up 76% year over year, according to the Federal Trade Commission.
The typical victim lost a “whopping” $2,000, the FTC said.

Job scams aren’t the most prevalent fraud: They accounted for only 9% of total identity scams in 2023, second to Google Voice scams, which totaled 60%, ITRC said. (Google Voice scams trick people into sharing a Google verification code, which scammers can use for nefarious ends. They often target people on Craigslist and Facebook Marketplace.)
However, employment scams are an “emerging” threat, said ITRC president and CEO Eva Velasquez.
“Job scams have been around since there were jobs,” Velasquez said. “[But] they’ll continue to grow because of a number of external factors that are occurring.”

AI and remote work fuel job-scam growth

AI advancements are one of those factors: They allow scammers to generate job listings and recruitment messages that look and feel more legitimate, experts said.
“AI tools help refine the ‘pitch’ to make it more believable as well as compensate for cultural and grammar differences in language usage,” according to the ITRC report.
What’s more, the rise of remote work during the pandemic era have made workers and job seekers more comfortable with digital-only transactions, Velasquez said.

Job seekers may never see a physical person during a phony hiring or interview process: They may interact with a supposed recruiter only via text or WhatsApp message, Velasquez said, which amounts to a “big red flag.”
Recent college grads, immigrants or other people new to the U.S. workforce may think such digital-only hiring normal, especially for fully remote jobs, she said. But hiring generally doesn’t work this way, she added.

How job scams can rip you off

Con artists will “push you for money” during the hiring process, the FTC said.
They may send an invoice for advance payment of on-the-job equipment (like a computer ) or job training. They promise to reimburse you, but won’t, according to the federal agency.
Scammers may also ask for your personal information — like a driver’s license, Social Security number or bank account details — upfront in order to fill out “employment paperwork,” the FTC said.
More from Personal Finance:Why job skills could make or break your next interviewWhy a five-day return to office is unlikelyJob market is still strong but has ‘gotten competitive’
“Scammers will promise you a great job, but what they really want is your money and your personal information,” New York Secretary of State Robert Rodriguez said in a consumer alert this year.
Job seekers should not expect to have to hand over personal information until after they’ve received and accepted a job offer, Velasquez said. (While this is a good screen for legitimacy, it may not provide a safety guarantee in all cases, she said.)

How to protect yourself from job scams

Ultimately, “there’s no sure-fire way to detect” job opportunity scams, according to the FTC.
Here’s what you should know and how you can better protect yourself, according to Velasquez and the FTC:  

Don’t have a false sense of security on well-known job search platforms.
Independently verify the company exists and is hiring. Don’t accept a job offer until you’ve done your own research.
Be wary if you didn’t initiate contact with a prospective employer or recruiter. Instead, reach out to the company directly using contact information you know is legit.
Only limited personal information is generally required during the application process: name, phone number, job and education history, and perhaps email and home address, Velasquez said.
Digital-only interactions are a red flag. However, phone calls are also not a guarantee of security.
Honest employers won’t send you a check to buy supplies or anything else, then ask you to send back the leftover money. This is a fake check scam.
Be wary of something that sounds too good to be true. For example, a job ad for 100% remote work that requires few skills and a huge salary “is not realistic,” Velasquez said.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

Tema ETFs has been capitalizing on the risk appetite for weight loss stocks.
It is behind the GLP-1, Obesity & Cardiometabolic ETF (HRTS), which is up 26% since its inception last November.

The firm’s founder and CEO Maurits Pot thinks the winning weight loss trade isn’t based on just hype.
“The companies we track and the companies we invest in are looking not just at a weight loss approach, but also other approaches,” Pot told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” on Monday. “We could see a world where the majority of the world’s population takes a GLP-1, not just for weight loss, but for other diseases.”
His top holdings include Mounjaro manufacturer Eli Lilly and Ozempic and Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk. Eli Lilly is up 57% so far this year, while Novo Nordisk is up 38%.

Arrows pointing outwards

Plus, Pot does not expect the price tag for GLP-1s to discourage new patients. He thinks they will come down significantly in the next two to three years.
“We could see drug pricing come down from $12,000 to maybe $6,000 a year, so maybe $500 a month,” said Pot, who points out insurance coverage often makes the treatments more affordable to patients.

Disclaimer More

A record number of Americans are expected to take a road trip during the July Fourth holiday week, according to AAA.
In certain cases, renting a car may be more financially savvy than using your own vehicle for a road trip.
There are many things to consider: vehicle health, rental and insurance rates, fuel efficiency, depreciation and lease contract details.

Patchareeporn Sakoolchai | Moment | Getty Images

Summer is the season of road trips.
A record 70.9 million Americans are expected to travel by car during the July Fourth holiday week alone, according to AAA.

For some car owners, it might be more financially savvy to rent a vehicle for a road trip than use their own, experts said.
“It’s going to be pretty dependent on a variety of factors,” said Greg Brannon, AAA’s director of automotive engineering research.
Those factors include your current vehicle’s gas mileage, the distance you’ll be driving, how long you’ll be gone, whether you lease or own and how big your vehicle is, among other things, according to Toyota.
Here are some key considerations.

The car’s specs

Vehicle capacity is a “no-brainer” when it comes to choosing whether to rent or not, said Brian Moody, executive editor of Autotrader, a car shopping site.

It’s easiest to say, “I have a five-passenger car and I have eight going on the trip,” Moody said.
Drivers may also need to compare specifications, such as the necessity of a two-wheel-drive versus a four-wheel-drive car, as well as storage space for luggage and gear.

Operating costs

This is where the math gets a bit trickier. There are many financial costs, some obvious and others less so.
Drivers would need to compare total rental costs — the daily rental rate and potential add-ons like insurance — versus those of operating their own car.
“Most people will be shocked at what it actually costs to own and operate their car,” Brannon said.

Fueling costs, such as gasoline or electric charging, are a financial consideration for both renters and car owners.
It may be possible to rent a more fuel-efficient vehicle and save money. For instance, renting a car that gets 40 miles per gallon versus a currently owned one that gets 20 mpg would, all else equal, cut fuel costs in half.
“If you have an old car that’s fuel inefficient, it might make sense to rent something,” Moody said.

Rental costs

The average rental cost $42 a day in the second quarter of 2024, with most travelers looking for four-day rentals, according to travel site Hopper.
The daily rate can be higher or lower based on factors like rental company, car type, and pickup and drop-off location.
The cost of rental car insurance might add $30 to $61 to the daily rate, depending on insurance type, according to Allianz Travel, citing MarketWatch data.
More from Personal Finance:Is inflation Biden’s or Trump’s fault?Romance scams cost consumers $1.14 billion in 2023FAFSA issues force hard choices for students
Renters who want car insurance may not need to buy additional coverage through the rental company.
Car owners may already get full coverage on a rental via their own car insurance policies, or may have some coverage through credit-card benefits, Brannon said.
“Call your insurance agent and double-check your coverage,” he said. “You can save yourself a bunch of money by not double-insuring the vehicle if you don’t need to.”

Depreciation and mileage caps on leases

Alistair Berg | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Additionally, car owners who lease a vehicle should weigh factors like mileage caps before taking a long road trip. For example, the typical lease imposes financial penalties on drivers who put more than 12,000 miles a year on their vehicle, according to Kelley Blue Book.
The cost for exceeding that cap is usually about 20 to 30 cents per mile, KBB said. (At 30 cents, a driver would pay $300 for every 1,000 miles over the mileage limit.)
There are also depreciation costs to consider.
Depreciation causes a car to lose value over time. Cars famously lose about 10% to 15% of their value once they drive it off the lot, Brannon said.

Depreciation is “the biggest expense of owning a vehicle,” Brannon said. And that’s why it matters for road trips, he says.
“The more miles you put on a vehicle the more it depreciates,” Brannon said.
Every mile puts wear and tear on the engine, tires and other moving parts, according to Allianz.
Depreciation affects all cars differently. The average car depreciates at about 20 cents a mile, according to Toyota.
For shorter road trips — say, 1,000 to 1,500 miles in a given year — depreciation might not be a big deal relative to rental prices, said Autotrader’s Moody.
Depreciation generally only matters for people who plan to sell or trade in their vehicle in the future.

State of the vehicle

Unforeseen repairs can be costly: The average repair order on the road is “well in excess of $500,” excluding towing costs, Brannon said, citing AAA data.
The odds of a breakdown are lower with rental cars, which are generally newer models, Moody said. The average used car on the road is about 12 years old, he explained.

While a mechanical issue would be inconvenient for anyone taking a road trip, renters wouldn’t be financially liable (assuming they’re not at fault), Moody said.
Brannon points out some questions drivers should ask: Have I done a good job maintaining my car? Is it up for long days on the road? Are the tires in good shape? Is it mechanically sound? How old is it? What safety technologies does the vehicle have?

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

The savings and loan (S&L) crisis terrorised America’s banks for years. Starting in the mid-1980s, a mix of aggressive lending growth, poor risk controls and a property downturn contributed to the collapse or consolidation of over 1,000 small lending institutions. China’s smallest banks are now suffering from many of the same ailments. But until recently few have collapsed or merged with others.That is starting to change. In the week ending June 24th, 40 Chinese banks vanished as they were absorbed into bigger ones. Not even at the height of the S&L crisis did lenders disappear at such a clip. More

Starbucks offers endless opportunities for innovation. Parts of social media delight in hacking the chain’s menu to create highly instagrammable drinks. Fancy a “cake batter Frappuccino”? Simply order a “vanilla bean crème Frappuccino”, add a pump of hazelnut syrup and ask the barista to put a cake pop in the blender. How about some “liquid cocaine”? That involves four shots of espresso with four pumps of white-chocolate syrup, served over ice.A new working paper suggests the purveyor of coffee-based milkshakes offers other innovation, too. Choi Jinkyong, Jorge Guzman and Mario Small, all of Columbia University, find that a new Starbucks in an American neighbourhood without a coffee shop leads to the creation of between 1.1 and 3.5 new companies a year over the next seven years. That, the authors argue, owes to the café’s role as a “third place”—somewhere people can gather without a purpose. Branches “help entrepreneurs form and mobilise networks”, they write. More

The world is still, in a sense, swimming in cash. Or at least the electronic equivalent: central-bank reserves. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), a club of central banks, estimates that the balance-sheets of rich-country central banks amount to roughly 50% of collective GDP. That is down from 70% in 2021—a reduction which reflects quantitative tightening (QT), or the offloading of assets acquired while easing—but is still far above the pre-global-financial-crisis norm of around 10%.Qt is intended to enhance the disinflationary effect of raising interest rates. As assets roll off a central bank’s balance-sheet, the corresponding reserves are extinguished. The process should, in the words of Janet Yellen, America’s treasury secretary and a former chair of the Federal Reserve, be as interesting as watching paint dry. Yet if reserves are to return to anything like their earlier 10% level, that may not be the case. Some worry such a reduction would prompt nasty surprises in the financial system. Hawkish types nevertheless argue that central banks ought to ensure reserves once again become “scarce”. They suggest that the “abundant” era created by quantitative easing has been destabilising, since banks no longer need to economise on their holdings or rely on the disciplining effects of money markets. More