Finance

Retail sales rose by 2.3% in April from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
Industrial production rose by 6.7% in April from a year ago, beating expectations for 5.5% growth.
But fixed asset investment rose by 4.2% for the first four months of the year, lower than the 4.6% expected increase.
China was also scheduled Friday to kick off a six-month program for issuing decades-long bonds to fund strategic projects.

Pictured here is a BYD factory producing new energy-powered trucks in Huai’an, China, on February 21, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — China reported data Friday that pointed to slower growth on the consumer side while industrial activity remained robust.
Retail sales rose by 2.3% in April from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said. That was less than the 3.8% increase forecast by a Reuters poll, and slower than the 3.1% pace reported in March.

Industrial production rose by 6.7% in April from a year ago, beating expectations for 5.5% growth. That was also a marked pickup from 4.5% in March.
But fixed asset investment rose by 4.2% for the first four months of the year, lower than the 4.6% expected increase.
Real estate investment steepened its pace of decline, and was down 9.8% year-on-year for the first four months of 2024.
Infrastructure and manufacturing investment during that time both slowed their pace slightly from the level reported as of March.
The urban unemployment rate in April was 5%. The bureau has previously said it would publish the breakdown by age in the days following the overall data release.

Retail sales grew by 6.8% year-on-year during a recent holiday period from April 29 to May 3, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce.
The ministry said retail sales of home appliances rose by 7.9% during that time, while that of automobiles climbed by 4.8%, boosted by nationwide trade-in incentives.
“Major indicators of industry, exports, employment and prices improved overall, with new driving forces maintain[ing] rapid growth,” the bureau said.
Some consumers who are uncertain about their future income and other aspects will remain cautious about spending, said Bruce Pang at JLL.
But he noted that improving employment data and growth in services consumption indicated retail sales could improve down the road.
The statistics bureau said in a statement that the April figures were affected by the May 1 Labor Day holiday and last year’s high base. 
A spokeswoman for the bureau, Liu Aihua, pointed out that last year, the multi-day May 1 Labor Day holiday had included two days in April. This year, the holiday didn’t begin until May 1.
She said the real estate sector remains in a period of adjustment.
China was also scheduled Friday to kick off a six-month program for issuing decades-long bonds to fund strategic projects. Oxford Economics expects the bulk of any economic impact won’t be felt until the first half of next year.
Liu noted the issuance of ultra-long bonds could also help boost market confidence.

Mixed picture so far

Other data released for April have pointed to a mixed picture for growth.
Exports grew year-on-year in April, up by 1.5% and in line with expectations, while imports grew far more than expected, up by 8.4%.
In another indication of stabilizing domestic demand, consumer prices ticked up last month.
But a measure of prices at the factory level continued to decline. New loan data for April slumped to levels not seen in at least two decades, due largely to changes in data measurement but also reflecting sluggish demand from businesses and households in borrowing for the future.
A prolonged slump in the real estate sector has yet to show signs of significant turnaround, with many pre-sold apartments still under construction. More cities have eased housing purchase restrictions in the last few weeks in a bid to bolster sales.

Housing policy details expected

Officials from the housing ministry, central bank and financial regulator are scheduled Friday afternoon to hold a press conference about policies to support the delivery of homes.
Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank (China), said in an interview late last month she expected China’s property market to stabilize by the end of next year.
“It actually looks to me the policy succeeded, in a very brutal way because it’s happening too fast, because it’s essentially stopped speculation,” she said.
While the real estate slump has weighed in particular on middle-class wealth, she pointed out the economy overall has held up.
“Data quality aside, it seems like the economy is able to compensate for a big loss in the housing market by industrial investment and manufacturing,” Wang said. “It has showed some strength in the way the Chinese economy is organized and how its industrial policy has been done.”
China’s official GDP grew by 5.3% in the first quarter versus a year ago, better than expectations for a 4.6% increase. The country has set a target of around 5% GDP growth for 2024.
The EU Chamber of Commerce in China told reporters last week that recent economic pressures appear cyclical, and that it’s more important for foreign businesses to see an increase in domestic demand rather than industrial investment.
Retail sales grew by 6.8% year-on-year during a recent holiday period from April 29 to May 3, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce.
The ministry said retail sales of home appliances rose by 7.9% during that time, while that of automobiles climbed by 4.8%, boosted by nationwide trade-in incentives. More

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Higher-income consumers may be creating a frothy situation at Walmart.
Even though affluent shoppers helped drive the retailer’s latest beat on quarterly results, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns they’ll be hard to keep.

“The Walmart experience is better than it used to be, but it’s still not a premium experience. Walmart is built on convenience, cost and assortment. Not on service,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday. “As the economic challenges abate … service will become more important than convenience and price. And, we’ll see a shift back of some of the consumers. That’s the bubble.”
His warning comes with Walmart stock hitting all-time highs going back to August 1972, when it began trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares surged almost 7% on Thursday after the discount retailer’s fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue beat estimates. Walmart reported high-income consumers helped drive profits particularly in its grocery business.
“The challenge is that the tail winds that have come from food inflation that have pushed Walmart along will reverse eventually,” said Simon, who sits on the boards of Darden Restaurants and Hanesbrands.
Last October on “Fast Money,” Simon warned bargains were losing their magic because consumers were starting to buckle for the first time in a decade. His call at the time applied to lower-income consumers.
Now, Simon contends higher-income consumers going to Walmart isn’t good news for the broader economy,

“When money is tight, people react — even high-end consumers react,” he said.
Despite his bubble warning, Simon thinks Walmart is a “great investment” over the next 12 months.
“As long as there’s inflation and those tail winds that come from particularly from food inflation, more traffic will come to the Walmart store,” said Simon.
But he thinks the stock may hit a rough spot in 24 months as inflation comes down and higher-end consumers move away from shopping at discount retailers.
“When inflation abates and service becomes more important than price, some of those tail winds will become headwinds,” Simon said.

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Canada Goose shares soared 16% on Thursday after reporting fiscal fourth-quarter earnings.
The company also announced it was expecting year-over-year sales growth for fiscal year 2025.
Canada Goose announced earlier this year that it was going to cut 17% of its corporate workforce.

Chris So | Toronto Star | Getty Images

Shares of Canada Goose surged 16% on Thursday after the company reported earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter and announced it was expecting year-over-year sales growth for fiscal year 2025.
Here’s how the company did:

Earnings per share: 5 Canadian cents, which may not compare with estimates of 7 Canadian cents
Revenue: CA$358 million (US$263 million), which may not compare with the CA$315.5 million (US$232 million) expected by LSEG.

Revenue increased 22% from the same period a year ago.
Neil Bowden, Canada Goose’s chief financial officer, said on an earnings call with analysts that store comparisons were “relatively flat,” but year-over-year sales growth for the period was led by locations in Greater China — the region comprising Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan — which saw a 29.7% increase. The broader Asia-Pacific region excluding Greater China was up 29.1%, and North American sales saw an increase of 24.5%.
Net income for the fiscal fourth quarter ended March 31 swung to CA$7.6 million, or 5 Canadian cents per share, from a loss of CA$10 million, or 3 Canadian cents per share, in the year-earlier period.
Bowden said the growth was supported by domestic shopping on the Chinese mainland, as well as mainland tourists driving “strong growth” in Hong Kong and Macao.
Online and in-store sales for the period, he added, were “bolstered by the company’s Lunar New Year marketing campaign and complemented by a longer peak selling period, given the later date of the Lunar New Year compared to last year.”

Moving forward, the finance chief said the company is expecting mid-single-digit percentage revenue growth the next fiscal year, which he expects will be guided by advances in the direct-to-consumer business. He also said he expects comparable store sales to grow “somewhere in the low single digits.”
Bowden said Canada Goose’s business increase in China and Asia Pacific over the past three months is in line with the view of mid-single-digit growth for the luxury business. North America, however, has been under “a little bit more pressure,” he said.
This upbeat performance comes after the company announced back in March that it was going to cut 17% of its corporate workforce. Canada Goose reported the layoffs had generated about CA$20 million (US$14.7 million) in productivity improvements and cost savings for the fiscal fourth quarter.

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The 30-stock benchmark broke above 40,000 for the first time.
Investors anticipate artificial intelligence boosting corporate profits and the Federal Reserve possibly cutting rates later this year.
The Dow first closed above 20,000 in early 2017, on the heels of lower corporate taxes in the U.S. under former President Donald Trump.

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a milestone Thursday that seemed unfathomable a year ago.
The 30-stock benchmark broke above 40,000 for the first time. The move comes as investors cheer the prospects of artificial intelligence boosting corporate profits and the Federal Reserve possibly cutting rates later this year as inflation eases further from its pandemic highs.

It’s been a long and winding road for the Dow to climb to these levels. Here’s a look at the Dow’s trajectory over the past 20,000 points.

The Dow first closed above 20,000 in early 2017, as investors began pricing in lower corporate taxes in the U.S. under former President Donald Trump. Those expectations were met toward the end of that year and also drove the Dow above 25,000 by January 2018.
However, the Dow struggled in 2018 after the excitement around lower taxes faded, with trade tensions between China and the U.S. rising and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The Dow finished the year down more than 5%.

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In 2019, the stock market recovered as the Fed pivoted away from raising rates. By early 2020, the Dow was nearing 30,000 — reaching a high of 29,551.42 on Feb. 12, 2020.
Then came the Covid-19 pandemic. The Dow tumbled 38% from its February 2020 intraday peak to a low of 18,213.65 in March 2020.

Over the following months, the benchmark would recover as progress on Covid vaccine development ramped up and the Fed and lawmakers took unprecedented measures to support the economy. By November 2020, the Dow had closed above 30,000 for the first time.
The momentum from the Covid lows carried through to 2021, with the Dow breaking above 35,000. However, the good times wouldn’t last for much longer, as a bear market knocked the Dow all the way down to 28,660.51 before it recovered. Since reaching that low, the Dow has surged 40%.
— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortés contributed reporting. More

Walmart shopping bag is seen in Krakow, Poland on February 9, 2024.
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading.
Under Armour — The sportswear maker’s Class A shares slumped 11% and its Class C stock fell 9% after it issued lower-than-expected full-year earnings guidance. Under Armour now expects earnings in the range of 18 cents to 21 cents while analysts polled by FactSet had forecast 59 cents.

Canada Goose — The coat maker jumped more than 12% after beating Wall Street estimates for sales and earnings in its fiscal fourth quarter. Canada Goose said one key profit margin metric “will expand by approximately 100 basis points compared to fiscal 2024” this year.
Walmart — The big-box retailer popped 4.7% after reporting adjusted first-quarter earnings of 60 cents per sharer, topping the 52 cents expected from analysts polled by LSEG. Revenue was $161.5 billion, beating the $159.5 billion consensus estimate. Walmart said it made big gains in e-commerce and won over more high-income shoppers.
Chubb — Stock in the insurance company climbed more than 8.1% before Thursday’s opening bell after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed Chubb is the secret stock the conglomerate has been accumulating. Berkshire bought nearly 26 million shares for about $6.7 billion making it the second-largest holder in Chubb, according to a regulatory filing.
Cisco Systems – The networking equipment stock gained 3% after posting stronger-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results. Cisco Systems also hiked its 2024 revenue guidance, saying it now expects revenue of $53.7 billion at the midpoint of a range.
Meme stocks — Shares of AMC and GameStop extended losses following the revival of the meme stock movement on Monday and Tuesday. Stock in movie theater chain AMC fell nearly 11% on Thursday, while GameStop pulled back roughly 14%. For the week, however, shares of AMC and GameStop have soared more than 80% and 140%, respectively.

Deere & Company — The agricultural equipment maker slipped nearly 6% after slashing its full-year outlook. Deere now forecasts net income of about $7 billion in 2024, compared to a previous estimate that called for $7.75 billion.
Baidu — Shares of the Chinese tech company were up less than 1% after releasing first-quarter results. Baidu reported CNY 31.51 billion ($4.7 billion) of revenue, topping the CNY 31.34 billion expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.
GoodRX — The healthcare stock climbed about 6% following an upgrade to outperform from Raymond James early Thursday. Analyst John Ransom noted that he views “the growth story here favorably with potential upside to numbers” and that the company’s full-year guidance is relatively conservative.
Coupang — The Seattle-based e-commerce company rose 3.1%. UBS upgraded shares to buy from neutral, citing its “expanding portfolio and strong logistics network.”
Dell — Shares ticked up 2% after Evercore ISI raised its price target thanks to what the firm said is a broadening artificial intelligence opportunity that could include Tesla as a customer.
Meta Platforms — Shares fell 0.5% after the European Union opened a probe into Meta, centering around child safety concerns on social media platforms Facebook and Instagram.
— CNBC’s Michelle Fox, Hakyung Kim, Sarah Min, Samantha Subin and Jesse Pound contributed reporting More

Land in Shenzhen, China’s southern technology hub, is scarce. Plots in years past have grabbed sky-high prices. But when Vanke, one of the country’s largest property firms, puts 19,000 square metres of land up for sale on May 18th, it will do so at a discount of 900m yuan ($125m), or 29%, on the price it paid seven years ago. The sale reeks of desperation. Vanke has been forced to flog its assets to pay its mounting debts. The company’s struggles are another sign of the worsening situation in China’s property industry.Four years into the crisis, the potential collapse of another Chinese real-estate giant may seem unremarkable. Evergrande, the world’s most indebted homebuilder, fell in 2021. Country Garden, once China’s biggest developer, followed suit in 2023. Yet Vanke is different. Shenzhen Metro, a state-owned firm, holds about a quarter of its shares. This has given it greater access to state funds than its purely private peers. Late last year it was also included on a list of “high-quality” developers to which the government encouraged bank lending. And still the firm is short on funds to pay down debts. More

In the early 1990s India abandoned the principles of swadeshi, or self-sufficiency, that had guided its policies since independence. Subsidies were scrapped; import levies tumbled. By 2014 the average tariff had fallen to 13%, from 125% in 1991. Over the same period, exports soared.Yet the country’s exports remain a little lopsided for the tastes of Narendra Modi, who is currently seeking (and likely to obtain) a third term as prime minister. Although India is a services superpower, it plays only a small role in global manufacturing supply-chains, including for generic drugs and phones. Indeed, over the past decade, its share of global goods exports has stagnated at around 1.8%. More

Speaking in 2005, Mervyn King, then governor of the Bank of England, outlined his “Maradona theory of interest rates”. The great Argentine footballer’s performance at a World Cup match against England in 1986, Lord King argued, was the perfect illustration of how central bankers ought to conduct monetary policy. Running 60 yards from inside his own half, Maradona skipped past five opponents, including England’s goalkeeper, before slotting the ball home. Even more astonishing, he mostly ran in a straight line. By duping defenders into thinking he would change direction, he scored while scarcely having to do so. To Lord King, the lesson for central bankers was clear. Guide investors’ expectations of future interest rates deftly enough, and an inflation target can be met without changing the official rate at all.For much of the intervening period, the Maradona theory has reigned supreme. After the global financial crisis of 2007-09, and again during the covid-19 pandemic, central banks’ policy rates spent long spells close to zero, as officials sought to stimulate their economies. Unable to force short-term interest rates much lower, many plumped for a Maradona-esque solution: assuring investors that they had no intention of raising policy rates any time soon. Quantitative easing (QE) programmes, which bought large volumes of bonds with newly created reserves, reinforced this signal by ensuring central banks (or the governments indemnifying them) would take heavy losses if they raised rates. The ball hit the net, and long-term yields dropped to historic lows. More