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    Why the Trump trade might be flawed

    Political risk—the notion that an election might have a meaningful impact on financial markets—used to be something that was the concern of emerging-market investors. Those in rich countries paid attention to central bankers, rather than politicians. Things are a little different today. In the run-up to America’s presidential election on November 5th, asset prices have moved alongside polling averages. Wall Street hums with talk of the “Trump trade”. More

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    Berkshire Hathaway’s cash fortress tops $300 billion as Buffett sells more stock, freezes buybacks

    Warren Buffett walks the floor ahead of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, on May 3, 2024.
    David A. Grogen | CNBC

    Berkshire Hathaway’s monstrous cash pile topped $300 billion in the third quarter as Warren Buffett continued his stock-selling spree and held back from repurchasing shares.
    The Omaha-based conglomerate saw its cash fortress swell to a record $325.2 billion by the end of September, up from $276.9 billion in the second quarter, according to its earnings report released Saturday morning.

    The mountain of cash kept growing as the Oracle of Omaha sold significant portions of his biggest equity holdings, namely Apple and Bank of America. Berkshire dumped about a quarter of its gigantic Apple stake in the third quarter, making the fourth consecutive quarter that it has downsized this bet. Meanwhile, since mid-July, Berkshire has reaped more than $10 billion from offloading its longtime Bank of America investment.
    Overall, the 94-year-old investor continued to be in a selling mood as Berkshire shed $36.1 billion worth of stock in the third quarter.
    No buybacks
    Berkshire didn’t repurchase any company shares during the period amid the selling spree. Repurchase activity had already slowed down earlier in the year as Berkshire shares outperformed the broader market to hit record highs.
    The conglomerate had bought back just $345 million worth of its own stock in the second quarter, significantly lower than the $2 billion repurchased in each of the prior two quarters. The company states that it will buy back stock when Chairman Buffett “believes that the repurchase price is below Berkshire’s intrinsic value, conservatively determined.”

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    Berkshire Hathaway

    Class A shares of Berkshire have gained 25% this year, outpacing the S&P 500’s 20.1% year-to-date return. The conglomerate crossed a $1 trillion market cap milestone in the third quarter when it hit an all-time high.

    For the third quarter, Berkshire’s operating earnings, which encompass profits from the conglomerate’s fully-owned businesses, totaled $10.1 billion, down about 6% from a year prior due to weak insurance underwriting. The figure was a bit less than analysts estimated, according to the FactSet consensus.
    Buffett’s conservative posture comes as the stock market has roared higher this year on expectations for a smooth landing for the economy as inflation comes down and the Federal Reserve keeps cutting interest rates. Interest rates have not quite complied lately, however, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back above 4% last month.
    Notable investors such as Paul Tudor Jones have become worried about the ballooning fiscal deficit and that neither of the two presidential candidates squaring off next week in the election will cut spending to address it. Buffett has hinted this year he was selling some stock holdings on the notion that tax rates on capital gains would have to be raised at some point to plug the growing deficit. More

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    Warren Buffett continued to sell down his Apple stake, cutting about a quarter in the third period

    Warren Buffett speaks during the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, on May 4, 2024.

    Warren Buffett sold another big chuck of his Apple stake, downsizing Berkshire Hathaway’s biggest equity holding for four quarters in a row.
    The Omaha-based conglomerate held $69.9 billion worth of Apple shares at the end of September, according to its third-quarter earnings report released Saturday morning. That implied Buffett offloaded approximately a quarter of his stake with about 300 million shares remaining in the holding. In total, the stake is down 67.2% from the end of the third quarter last year.

    The Oracle of Omaha started trimming his stake in the iPhone maker in the fourth quarter of 2023 and ramped up selling in the second quarter when he surprisingly dumped nearly half of the bet.

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    Apple, YTD

    It’s unclear what exactly motivated the continuous selling in the stock Berkshire first bought more than eight years ago. Analysts and shareholders had speculated it was due to high valuations as well as portfolio management to reduce concentration. Berkshire’s Apple holding was once so big that it took up half of its equity portfolio.
    In May at the Berkshire annual meeting, Buffett hinted that the selling was for tax reasons as he speculated that the tax on capital gains could be raised in the future by a U.S. government wanting to plug a climbing fiscal deficit. However, the magnitude of the sales made many believe it could be more than just a tax-saving move.
    Berkshire began buying the stock in 2016 under the influence of Buffett’s investing lieutenants Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. Before Apple, Buffett largely avoided technology companies for most of his career, saying they were outside of his circle of competence.
    The legendary investor fell in love with Apple for its loyal customer base and the stickiness of the iPhone. Over the years, he raised his Apple holding to Berkshire’s biggest and even once called the tech giant the second-most important business after his cluster of insurers.

    Amid the big selling spree, Berkshire’s cash hoard reached $325.2 billion in the third quarter, an all-time high for the conglomerate. The firm paused buybacks completely during the quarter.
    Apple shares are up 16% on the year, trailing the S&P 500’s 20% gain. More

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    Higher taxes will make it harder for Britain to build ‘the next Nvidia,’ tech execs say

    Technology entrepreneurs and investors slammed the U.K. government’s decision to hike capital gains tax, National Insurance contributions and carried interest for VC fund managers.
    U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced a move to raise CGT as part of a far-reaching announcement on the Labour government’s fiscal spending and tax plans.
    Haakon Overli, co-founder of venture capital firm Dawn Capital, said the tax increases could make it harder for the next Nvidia to be built in the U.K.

    UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves makes a speech during the Labour Party Conference that is held at the ACC Liverpool Convention Center in Liverpool, UK on September 23, 2024. 
    Anadolu | Getty Images

    LONDON — British tech bosses and venture capitalists are questioning whether the country can deliver on its bid to become a global artificial intelligence hub after the government set out plans to increase taxes on businesses.
    On Wednesday, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced a move to hike capital gains tax (CGT) — a levy on the profit investors make from the sale of an investment — as part of a far-reaching announcement on the Labour government’s fiscal spending and tax plans.

    The lower capital gains tax rate was increased to 18% from 10%, while the higher rate climbed to 24% from 20%. Reeves said the increases will help bring in £2.5 billion ($3.2 billion) of additional capital to the public purses.
    It was also announced that the lifetime limit for business asset disposal relief (BADR) — which offers entrepreneurs a reduced rate on the level of tax paid on capital gains resulting from the sale of all or part of a company — would sit at £1 million.
    She added that the rate of CGT applied to entrepreneurs using the BADR scheme will increase to 14% in 2025 and to 18% a year later. Still, Reeves said the U.K. would still have the lowest capital gains tax rate of any European G7 economy.

    The hikes were less severe than previously feared — but the push toward a higher tax environment for corporates stoked the concern of several tech executives and investors, with many suggesting the move would lead to higher inflation and a slowdown in hiring.
    On top of increases to CGT, the government also raised the rate of National Insurance (NI) contributions, a tax on earnings. Reeves forecasted the move would raise £25 billion per year — by far the largest revenue raising measure in a raft of pledges that were made Wednesday.

    Paul Taylor, CEO and co-founder of fintech firm Thought Machine, said that hike to NI rates would lead to an additional £800,000 in payroll spending for his business.
    “This is a significant amount for companies like us, which rely on investor capital and already face cost pressures and targets,” he noted.
    “Nearly all emerging tech businesses run on investor capital, and this increase sets them back on their path to profitability,” added Taylor, who sits on the lobbying group Unicorn Council for U.K. FinTech. “The U.S. startup and entrepreneurial environment is a model of where the U.K. needs to be.”

    Chances of building ‘the next Nvidia’ more slim

    Another increase to taxation by way of a rise in the tax rate for carried interest — the level of tax applied to the share of profit a fund manager makes from a private equity investment.

    Reeves announced that the rate of tax on carried interest, which is charged on capital gains, would rise to 32%, up from 28% currently.
    Haakon Overli, co-founder of European venture capital firm Dawn Capital, said that increases to capital gains tax could make it harder for the next Nvidia to be built in the U.K.
    “If we are to have the next NVIDIA built in the UK, it will come from a company born from venture capital investment,” Overli said by email.
    “The tax returns from creating such a company, which is worth more than the FTSE 100 put together, would dwarf any gains from increasing the take from venture capital today.”
    The government is carrying out further consultation with industry stakeholders on plans to up taxes on carried interest. Anne Glover, CEO of Amadeus Capital, an early investor in Arm, said this was a good thing.
     “The Chancellor has clearly listened to some of the concerns of investors and business leaders,” she said, adding that talks on carried interest reforms must be “equally as productive and engaged.”
    Britain also committed to mobilizing £70 billion of investment through the recently formed National Wealth Fund — a state-backed investment platform modelled on sovereign wealth vehicles such as Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.

    This, Glover added, “aligns with our belief that investment in technology will ultimately lead to long term growth.”
    She nevertheless urged the government to look seriously at mandating that pension funds diversify their allocation to riskier assets like venture capital — a common ask from VCs to boost the U.K. tech sector.

    Clarity welcomed

    Steve Hare, CEO of accounting software firm Sage, said the budget would mean “significant challenges for UK businesses, especially SMBs, who will face the impact of rising employer National Insurance contributions and minimum wage increases in the months ahead.”
    Even so, he added that many firms would still welcome the “longer-term certainty and clarity provided, allowing them to plan and adapt effectively.”
    Meanwhile, Sean Reddington, founder and CEO of educational technology firm Thrive, said that higher CGT rates mean tech entrepreneurs will face “greater costs when selling assets,” while the rise in employer NI contributions “could impact hiring decisions.”
    “For a sustainable business environment, government support must go beyond these fiscal changes,” Reddington said. “While clearer tax communication is positive, it’s unlikely to offset the pressures of heightened taxation and rising debt on small businesses and the self-employed.”
    He added, “The crucial question is how businesses can maintain profitability with increased costs. Government support is essential to offset these new burdens and ensure the UK’s entrepreneurial spirit continues to thrive.” More

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    BlackRock launches ETF that expands beyond the ‘Magnificent Seven’

     BlackRock’s iShares is trying to appeal to investors who want to diversify beyond from the so-called Magnificent Seven.
    The firm launched the iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT) this month. It doesn’t just hold the Magnificent Seven — Apple, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. It’s made up of the 20 largest U.S. stocks by market capitalization.

    “What the iShares build ETFs are designed to do is to deliver a tool kit of simple solutions for investors to be able to capture the growth of some of the largest companies within the U.S. equity market today, but to do so in a broader and more diversified manner,” BlackRock’s Rachel Aguirre told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” on Monday.
    Aguirre, the firm’s head of U.S. iShares product, noted the ETF’s mission is to deliver an easy and accessible way to tap into the innovation of megacaps – “whether that be in the tech-heavy Nasdaq space or, more broadly, within the S&P [500].”

    Arrows pointing outwards

    The ETF, according to Aguirre, provides a way for investors worried about the concentration of the Magnificent Seven stocks in the S&P 500.
    On Thursday, the Magnificent Seven slid more than 3.5% as a group — losing around $615 billion in market cap. That’s equivalent to the size of JPMorgan Chase.
    However, the Magnificent Seven is still up about 43% so far year while the S&P 500 is up around 20%

    “It’s important for clients and investors to remember that there are split views on this topic. There are many investors who believe that the big will get bigger [and] that the winners will continue to win,” Aguirre said. “There’s also another side to this argument. There are many investors who believe that it’s actually a very worrisome time to continue investing in… mega-cap companies because of just their high valuations.”
    The iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF is down 2% since its Oct. 23 launch.

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    Greenland faces one of history’s great resource rushes—and curses

    A billion years ago, as one tectonic plate ripped apart from another, two chambers of magma were sealed off beneath what would later become Greenland. As thousands of years passed, the magma cooled, each layer crystallising under rarefied conditions. Today the Ilimaussaq intrusion is a giant fold of rock beneath Gardar, in south-west Greenland. By a stroke of luck, it is home to 30 of the world’s most desired raw materials. More

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    Ireland’s government has an unusual problem: too much money

    Across Europe fiscal policy is causing headaches. The governments of Britain and France are both raising tax rates sharply. Germany is hobbled by a self-imposed debt brake. Meanwhile, Italy’s profligate borrowing continues to unsettle investors. Ireland faces a different problem: the government is so flush with cash it does not know quite what to do with it. More

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    American men are getting back to work

    America’s politicians have long worried about the rising share of men out of work. More on the sidelines means slower economic growth, heftier benefit payments and a frailer social fabric. During the election campaign, both candidates have offered policies designed to tackle this long-standing problem. Donald Trump proposes sweeping tariffs and clamping down on illegal immigration. Kamala Harris vows to revive traditional male sectors, not least manufacturing. More