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    Economists don’t know what’s going on

    The British government has launched an investigation into the Office for National Statistics. Last month the ONS found errors in some numbers that underpin its GDP calculations, and investors no longer trust its monthly jobs report. The episode hints at a wider trend: global economic data have become alarmingly poor. More

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    Not just Trump: Asia has a trade problem of its own making

    Although recent months have seen fewer Asian tourists in America, for a certain type of visitor it is peak season. Trade negotiators from India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam have been rushing to Washington in the hope of signing a trade deal that will avert President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, which are due to be implemented on July 9th. More

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    Trump’s sovereign-wealth fund won’t make America richer

    With $29trn in debt and a widening fiscal deficit, America hardly seems like a candidate for a sovereign-wealth fund. Such enormous, independently managed but state-directed pots of cash are, after all, normally established as a means of investing surpluses. That has not stopped President Donald Trump, however. By May 3rd his cabinet will have unveiled a plan for a fund that ought to, in his words, “promote the long-term financial health” of America. Although details are so far sparse, the rough idea, according to Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, is to “monetise the asset side of the balance-sheet” by creating a fund that can invest in stocks, property and private markets. More

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    What price cool? $31 a month, according to students

    What is the price of cool? About $31 a month, according to new research by Leonardo Bursztyn of the University of Chicago and co-authors. That is how much college students had to be paid to have their iPhone messages appear to others in a (lame) green rather than a (fashionable) blue bubble for four weeks. Introduced to indicate that a message has been sent by services other than Apple’s iMessage, the green bubble has become a marker for those either insufficiently wealthy to afford an iPhone or insufficiently aware of the stigma stemming from their preference for Android, another operating system. Better avoided, unless there is a reward. More

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    Will China’s shoppers cushion the Trumpian blow?

    A real Armani polo shirt might cost 1,400 yuan ($190) if bought from the fashion house’s shop on JD.com, one of China’s biggest e-commerce platforms. But search for “Armani manufacturer” on the same app and similar shirts can be found for just 60 yuan. The cheaper offerings seem to have been made by Armani suppliers and sold directly to local consumers without the brand’s mark-ups—a steal for Chinese shoppers, if true. More

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    China says no ongoing trade talks with the U.S., calls for canceling ‘unilateral’ tariffs

    “At present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,” said Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson He Yadong.
    U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week indicated that there might be an easing in tensions with China.
    “If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem … it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,” He said.

    Steel piled up at Guoyuan Port in Chongqing, China, on April 20, 2025.
    Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

    BEIJING — China on Thursday said that there were no ongoing discussions with the U.S. on tariffs, despite indications from the White House this week that there would be some easing in tensions with Beijing.
    “At present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,” Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson He Yadong told reporters in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He added that “all sayings” regarding progress on bilateral talks should be dismissed.

    “If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem … it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,” He said.
    U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week indicated that there might be an easing in tensions with China. The White House earlier this month added 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, to which Beijing responded with duties of its own and increased restrictions on critical minerals exports to the U.S.
    The commerce ministry’s comments echoed those of Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun, who said on Thursday afternoon that there were no ongoing talks, according to state media.
    Both spokespersons held to the official line that China would be willing to talk to the U.S. subject to Beijing being treated as an equal.

    “China definitely wants to see the trade war deescalate, as it hurts both economies,” said Yue Su principal economist, China, at The Economist Intelligence Institute. “However, due to the inconsistency of Trump’s policies and the lack of clarity around what he actually wants, China’s strategy has shifted from focusing on ‘what you need’ to ‘what I need.’ Their request for the U.S. to cancel ‘unilateral’ tariffs reflects that shift.”

    China earlier this week threatened countermeasures against countries that might make deals with the U.S. at the expense of Beijing’s interests.
    “We also need to recognize that this is a ‘whatever it takes’ moment for China in terms of U.S.-China relations,” Su said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if China adopts a more hawkish stance if the U.S. continues to escalate tensions.”
    Several Wall Street banks have cut their China GDP outlook in the last few weeks in light of the tariffs and escalating tensions with the U.S.
    The Commerce Ministry on Thursday emphasized government and business efforts to help companies sell goods meant for exports to the Chinese market instead.
    “From China’s perspective, any meaningful negotiations will likely require the US to reduce tariffs to the previous 20% or even lower level,” said Jianwei Xu, senior economist for Greater China, at Natixis.
    “But for the Trump administration, however, reducing tariffs too far could raise uncomfortable questions: What was the point of the confrontation if we end up back where we started?”
    The U.S. is China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis. But in the last several years, Southeast Asia has surpassed the European Union to become China’s largest trading partner on a regional basis.

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    Credit a ‘short squeeze’ for the stock market’s big two-day bounce

    A key force at the center of the stock market’s massive two-day rally is the frantic behavior of short sellers covering their losses.
    Short covering was on display Tuesday and Wednesday as stocks shot up on signs of easing tensions on trade even though no concrete deals have been reached yet.
    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday “there is an opportunity for a big deal here” on trade issues between the U.S. and China.

    Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on April 22, 2025.
    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    A key force at the center of the stock market’s massive two-day rally is the frantic behavior of short sellers covering their losses.
    Hedge fund short sellers recently added more bearish wagers in both single stocks and securities tied to macro developments after the whipsaw early April triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout and abrupt 90-day pause, according to Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage data.

    The increased short positions in the market created an environment prone to dramatic upswings due to this artificial buying force. A short seller borrows an asset and quickly sells it. When the security decreases in price, they buy it back more cheaply to profit from the difference.
    It can backfire when the security suddenly rallies and short sellers are forced to buy back their borrowed stocks rapidly to limit their losses, a Wall Street phenomenon known as a short squeeze.
    If the market appeared to be rallying on no real tangible news Tuesday other than some walking back of comments on China and the Federal Reserve by Trump, credit this phenomenon.
    “Squeeze risk is real today,” John Flood, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, said in an early note to clients Wednesday.
    Flood echoed the sentiment of many traders who have said the market appeared coiled for a relief rally because so many hedge funds were caught on the wrong side of this bet.

    Stock chart icon

    Short covering was on display Tuesday and Wednesday as stocks shot up on signs of easing tensions on trade even though no concrete deals have been reached yet. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday “there is an opportunity for a big deal here” on trade issues between the U.S. and China.
    The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average surged another 1,100 points Wednesday at its highs following a 1,000-point gain to end a four-day losing streak. The S&P 500 is up 3.5% week to date after back-to-back winning sessions.
    Trump’s quick reversal on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also fueled the positive sentiment. Trump said he has “no intention” of firing Powell, after saying the central bank chief’s “termination cannot come fast enough” just a few days ago.
    But the rally was quickly fading, with the Dow up just 500 points at midday Wednesday. The fading short squeeze boost evident at the open could be a reason for the pullback off the highs.
    Also, Goldman’s Flood said hedge funds have not gone from short-covering to outright buying on the long side, a sign that the rally doesn’t have high conviction behind it.
    “I am closely monitoring to see if HF covers in macro and singles start to evolve into long buys,” Flood said. “Also want to see longer duration investors step in and buy names they view as fair value. We have not seen any of this type of action, yet.”

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    Should investors spend the trade war in India?

    Fresh-faced financial reporters are swiftly disabused of the idea that there are “safe havens” in financial markets. With one eye on the word count, a grizzled sub-editor will cut the extraneous word and growl “all havens are safe”. Assets that retain their value during a market downturn—gold, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen—should be known by the one-word moniker “havens”. As such, the sub-editor will insist, “safe havens” have no place in newspaper copy. More