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    Canadian Ministers Meet Trump Aides at Mar-a-Lago to Discuss Border, and Tariffs

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian exports unless the country stops the flow of migrants and fentanyl to the U.S.Two top Canadian ministers met on Friday with members of President-elect Donald J. Trump’s circle in Florida about a border security plan that Canada hopes will ward off Mr. Trump’s threats to impose economically damaging tariffs on imports from the country. But the ministers returned home without any assurances.The meeting was characterized in advance as an attempt to build on a dinner Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had with Mr. Trump at Mar-a-Lago over the Thanksgiving weekend as well as on a recent telephone conversation between members of Mr. Trudeau’s cabinet and Thomas D. Homan, Mr. Trump’s designated border czar.Mélanie Joly, Canada’s foreign minister, and Dominic LeBlanc, its finance minister, arrived in Florida on Thursday evening for the session with Howard Lutnick, Mr. Trump’s choice for commerce secretary, and former Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, the president-elect’s pick to run the Interior Department who would also coordinate energy policy.Mr. Trump has said he will impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada when he takes office in January if the country does not reduce the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the United States. Such a move could be devastating for Canada, whose economy depends heavily on exports to the United States. But on at least one occasion, Mr. Trump has suggested that his tariff plan may have less to do with border security than with his desire to eliminate the $50 billion trade deficit with Canada. Oil and gas exports from Canada account for most of that trade imbalance. Without them, the U.S. generally has a trade surplus with Canada.Jean-Sébastien Comeau, a spokesman for Mr. LeBlanc, described the Mar-a-Lago session as a “positive, productive meeting” and said that the two nominees “agreed to relay information to President Trump.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Takes Aim at China’s Production of Essential Chips

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    The older-style chips are crucial for a wide array of appliances and other machinery, including weaponry.The Biden administration on Monday initiated a trade investigation into China’s production of older types of computer chips that are integral for cars, dishwashers, telecom networks and military weaponry.The probe could ultimately result in tariffs or other measures to block Chinese chips from entering U.S. markets, though the decision of which, if any approach to take would fall to the incoming Trump administration.In industry after industry — from steel and ships to solar panels and electric vehicles — China has pumped money into building world-class manufacturing facilities, creating a surge of low-cost products that ultimately flood global markets. American companies, along with firms in many other countries, finding themselves unable to compete, have shut down, leaving Chinese firms largely in control of the global market.United States officials have been worrying that the semiconductor industry could be next. Chinese companies have been massively ramping up their production of chips, particularly the older types of semiconductors that continue to power a wide array of machinery and appliances. China is building more new semiconductor factories than any other country, a development that American officials argue threatens the viability of chip plants in Europe and the United States.Katherine Tai, the United States Trade Representative, said in a call on Sunday that China’s policies were enabling its companies to rapidly expand and to “offer artificially lower-priced chips that threaten to significantly harm, and potentially eliminate, their market-oriented competition.”That resulted in supply chains that “are more vulnerable and subject to supply chain choke points that can be used to economically coerce other countries,” she said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Economy Is Finally Stable. Is That About to Change?

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump’s proposals on tariffs, immigration, taxes and deregulation may have far-reaching and contradictory effects, adding uncertainty to forecasts.After five years of uncertainty and turmoil, the U.S. economy is ending 2024 in arguably its most stable condition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.Inflation has cooled. Unemployment is low. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. The recession that many forecasters once warned was inevitable hasn’t materialized.Yet the economic outlook for 2025 is as murky as ever, for one major reason: President-elect Donald J. Trump.On the campaign trail and in the weeks since his election, Mr. Trump has proposed sweeping policy changes that could have profound — and complicated — implications for the economy.He has proposed imposing steep new tariffs and deporting potentially millions of undocumented immigrants, which could lead to higher prices, slower growth or both, according to most economic models. At the same time, he has promised policies like tax cuts for individuals and businesses that could lead to faster economic growth but also bigger deficits. And he has pledged to slash regulations, which could lift corporate profits and, possibly, overall productivity. But critics warn that such changes could increase worker injuries, cause environmental damage and make the financial system more prone to crises over the long run.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    High on Hope, Wall St. Hears What It Wants From Trump

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    Investors and executives are often emphasizing what they like in the president-elect’s agenda, while dismissing what they don’t as mere posturing.If you ask many a Wall Street investor, tax cuts are poised for extension, deregulation is all but guaranteed, immigration reform for high-skill workers has real potential and President-elect Donald J. Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) might just cut the deficit.Tariffs, by contrast, are a mere bargaining chip. Immigrant expulsions will probably be limited, and there is no way on earth that the incoming White House would meddle with the independent Federal Reserve.Hope has been riding high in financial markets and corporate boardrooms in the month-and-change since the presidential election. But it is often predicated on a bet: Many of the optimists are choosing to believe that the Trump promises they want to see fulfilled are going to become reality, while dismissing those they think would be bad for the economy as mere posturing.“A lot of people are using deductive reasoning and concluding that he’ll only do things that are good for the market,” said Julia Coronado, founder of the research firm MacroPolicy Perspectives. “They can ride this wave of hope-ium through the end of January,” she said, adding that much of it “feels delusional.”There’s a reason for the hope: Many investors believe that markets themselves will act as a bulwark against extreme proposals.Mr. Trump does care enormously about financial markets, and particularly the stock market. He points to it as a marker of success in a way that few if any presidents have ever done. And during his first term in office, he sometimes backed away from more extreme plans — like an idea to oust the Fed chair — when they caused markets to plummet.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Biden Prepares to Target Chinese Legacy Chips With Trade Investigation

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    The investigation could result in tariffs on older types of chips from China, though the decision would ultimately fall to Trump.The Biden administration is preparing a trade investigation into China’s production of older-model semiconductors, in response to fears that the United States’ growing dependence on these products could pose a national security threat, according to people familiar with the matter and government and industry documents reviewed by The New York Times.The investigation could ultimately result in tariffs, import bans or other actions on certain Chinese chips and the products that contain them. But the decision about what course to take would fall to the incoming Trump administration. The Biden administration may initiate its investigation in the coming weeks, but it would most likely take at least six months to conclude.The U.S. government has already tried to clamp down on China’s access to the most advanced types of semiconductors due to national security concerns. But it has largely left untouched China’s production of older types of chips, which are still vital for powering a huge swath of products including smartphones, cars, dishwashers, refrigerators and weaponry, along with American telecommunications networks.But with Chinese companies and the government now investing heavily in new factories, or fabs, to make those “legacy” or “foundational” chips, U.S. officials are concerned that Chinese production could put chip factories in the United States or allied countries out of business. That could increase U.S. supply chain dependence on China and potentially pose cybersecurity threats as those chips are integrated into American infrastructure or weaponry.“China is subsidizing those chips in these new fabs, dumping them into the global market and tanking the price,” Gina Raimondo, the commerce secretary, said at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, Calif., on Dec. 7. “That isn’t fair. And there may be a case for tariffs on that.”The Biden administration has been weighing whether to proceed with a trade investigation under two different laws. One is Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which focuses on threats to national security and falls to the Commerce Department. The other option is Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which applies to acts that are “unjustifiable” or “unreasonable” and burden U.S. commerce, and is carried out by the Office of the United States Trade Representative.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Threats About the Dollar Could Push Other Countries to Find Alternatives

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that seek to replace the dollar in trade or undermine its global reserve currency status.When Republicans nominated Donald J. Trump to be their presidential candidate over the summer, the party’s platform included a pledge to maintain the role of the United States dollar as the world’s reserve currency.Since winning the election, Mr. Trump has indicated that he wants to deliver on that promise. Over the last week he warned that if the group of nations known as BRICS countries — which include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — tried to create their own currency to rival the dollar, he would punish them with 100 percent tariffs and shut them out of U.S. markets.“There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.The warning was intended to preserve the dollar’s premier status, but economists and analysts suggested that it could have the opposite effect. Although it appears unlikely that the BRICS would be able to create their own currency, the aggressive use of tariffs and sanctions by the United States is the reason that other nations have increasingly been considering alternatives to the dollar. By making such threats, Mr. Trump could end up accelerating that trend.“Threatening retaliation against the unlikely creation of a BRICS currency only reinforces the rest of the world’s concerns about the U.S. willingness to wield dollar dominance as an economic and geopolitical weapon,” said Eswar Prasad, the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “This will intensify other countries’ attempts to diversify away from use of the dollar for international payments and for foreign exchange reserves.”The dollar has been the world’s dominant currency for about a century and has served as the world’s reserve currency since the end of World War II. It makes up the majority of foreign exchange reserves held in global central banks and is widely used in international transactions such as trade and loans.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    PCE, a Key Inflation Measure, Sped Up in October

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    Inflation has been stubborn in recent months. Now, President-elect Donald J. Trump’s tariffs loom as a potential risk.The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure sped up in October, a development that is likely to keep central bankers wary as they contemplate the path ahead for interest rates.The Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed 2.3 percent from a year earlier, quicker than 2.1 percent in September, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.After stripping out volatile food and fuel costs to get a better sense of the underlying trend in prices, a “core” index climbed 2.8 percent from a year earlier. That was up from 2.7 percent previously.And looking at how much prices climbed over just the past month, the overall index rose 0.2 percent from September, and the core index increased 0.3 percent. Both changes were in line with their previous readings and with economist expectations. Policymakers sometimes look at monthly price changes to get an up-to-date sense of how inflation is evolving.The upshot from the report is that inflation is proving sticky after months of steady progress. Price increases remain much cooler than they were at their peak in 2022, which topped out at about 7 percent for the overall index. But they remain slightly faster than the 2 percent pace that the Fed targets.“It emphasizes a reality about the inflation data, which is that inflation progress has stalled,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Selects Jamieson Greer as Trade Representative

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump on Tuesday picked Jamieson Greer, a lawyer and former Trump official, to serve as his top trade negotiator. The position will be crucial to Mr. Trump’s plans of issuing hefty tariffs on foreign products and rewriting the rules of trade in America’s favor.Mr. Greer is a partner in international trade at the law firm King & Spalding. During Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Greer served as chief of staff to Robert E. Lighthizer, the trade representative at the time. He was involved in the Trump administration’s trade negotiations with China, as well as the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico.Before that, Mr. Greer served in the Air Force, where he was a lawyer who prosecuted and defended U.S. airmen in criminal investigations. He was deployed to Iraq.“Jamieson will focus the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on reining in the Country’s massive Trade Deficit, defending American Manufacturing, Agriculture, and Services, and opening up Export Markets everywhere,” Mr. Trump said.The position of trade representative has historically been fairly low profile, but it has taken on greater importance under Mr. Trump. In his first term, the office helped wage a trade war against China, imposed substantial tariffs on its products and negotiated a series of trade deals.In his next term, Mr. Trump has promised to again make aggressive use of the government’s authority over trade. On Monday, he said he would impose tariffs on all products coming into the United States from Canada, Mexico and China on his first day in office.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More