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    in Economy

    Trump’s Threatened Tariffs Are So Large, 10% Feels Like a Relief

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    As he proposes ever stiffer tariffs, President Trump has normalized his merely big ones.There has been a mantra spreading among weary corporate executives who are becoming resigned to President Trump’s tariffs while still hoping to avoid the worst of their effects: Ten percent is the new zero.The statement refers to the 10 percent tariff that Mr. Trump put in place on most U.S. imports one month ago. Such a significant increase in U.S. tariffs would have been unthinkable a few years ago. But it no longer seems like such a big deal, compared with the truly large tariffs that Mr. Trump has already imposed or threatened elsewhere.Mr. Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2 that he was planning tariffs of 10 percent to 60 percent on dozens of America’s trading partners set off a rout in the bond markets and a flight from the U.S. dollar as investors panicked at the prospect of an economically devastating trade war. Mr. Trump also ratcheted up tariffs on China to a minimum of 145 percent amid a trade spat with Beijing, bringing much of the trade between the countries to a halt.That turmoil appears to have moderated Mr. Trump’s impulses somewhat. The president quickly paused tariffs on most countries, giving them 90 days to negotiate trade deals instead.Mr. Trump also granted a lucrative exemption from China tariffs for makers of electronics and offered some limited relief for automakers. And he has hinted that he could do more, saying he likes to be “flexible.”Investors have lapped up any signs of good news, even insubstantial ones. Stock markets have now regained nearly all of the losses they sustained after April 2, buoyed by comments from Trump administration officials that they are working to close trade deals with allies and planning to meet with Chinese counterparts to discuss their standoff.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares149 Views

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    U.S. and China to Hold First Trade Talks Since Trump’s Tariffs

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    Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, and Jamieson Greer, the United States trade representative, will discuss trade and economic matters with the officials this week.Top officials from the Trump administration will meet with their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland this week, the first formal meeting about trade between the United States and China since President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to triple-digit levels last month.Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, and Jamieson Greer, the United States trade representative, plan to meet with Chinese officials during a trip to Geneva, where they will discuss trade and economic matters, according to separate announcements from the office of the trade representative and the Treasury Department.A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that He Lifeng, the vice premier for economic policy, would visit Switzerland from Friday to Monday and hold talks with Mr. Bessent. Mr. Bessent said on Fox News that the talks would be held on Saturday and Sunday.The meeting could help to defuse an economically damaging trade standoff that has persisted between the world’s largest economies for a month. In early April, Mr. Trump escalated tariffs on Chinese exports to a minimum of 145 percent, to punish Beijing for retaliating against his earlier levies.While both sides appear to be interested in reducing those tariffs, neither has wanted to make the first move. It remains unclear how quickly the United States and China might strike any kind of agreement, or what its contents could be.The Trump administration has criticized China for its role in bringing fentanyl and ingredients to make the drug to the United States, as well as a bevy of unfair trade practices. Mr. Trump and his advisers have also censured China for failing to stick to the terms of a trade deal the president negotiated in his first term. China, in return, has called Mr. Trump’s tariffs “illegal and unreasonable.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    in Economy

    Ford Says Tariffs Will Cost Company $1.5 Billion in 2025

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    Ford Motor also reported a sharp drop in profits in the first three months of the year.Ford Motor said on Monday that the Trump administration’s tariff policies were likely to lower its 2025 profit, before interest and taxes, by about $1.5 billion. The company also dropped its forecast for the year, saying that predicting the future had become too hard.Ford is less affected by President Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on vehicles than other automakers because most of the vehicles it sells in the United States are made in the country. General Motors said last week that the tariffs would increase its costs $4 billion to $5 billion this year.“We believe we are well positioned to adapt to the changes tariffs are driving in our industry,” Ford’s chief financial officer, Sherry House, said in a conference call.The company said the administration’s shifting tariff policies had the potential to disrupt to automotive supply chains, and they could force other nations to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. It also noted further uncertainty in the Trump administration’s tax and emission policies.“We felt it prudent to suspend our full-year guidance,” Ms. House said.Ford previously said it expected earnings for 2025, before interest and taxes, to be $7 billion to $8.5 billion.The Trump administration has levied 25 percent tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts. It has raised tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which are used extensively in cars and trucks.Those and other tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump signify a major shift in U.S. trade policy, especially as it affects trade among the United States, Canada and Mexico. For decades, cars and auto parts have been shipped across North America with little or no tariffs.Ford makes a few vehicles in Mexico, including a key electric model, the Mustang Mach-E, and plans to start making heavy-duty pickup trucks in Canada in 2026. Ms. House said the automaker was not considering changing its heavy-duty truck plans.The company also reported that its profit in the first three months of the year fell to $471 million, from $1.3 billion a year earlier. Ford blamed lower vehicle sales because it had paused production at some factories to prepare for new models and made other changes aimed at reducing inventories of unsold cars and trucks.Its revenue in the quarter declined 5 percent, to $40.7 billion. Ford narrowed its loss on electric vehicles to $849 million from a loss of $1.3 billion a year earlier. Profit from selling mainstream, internal combustion vehicles fell to $96 million from $901 million. Profit from selling commercial trucks and related services declined to $1.3 billion from $3 billion. More

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    U.S. and China Dig In on Trade War, With No Plans for Formal Talks

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    The standoff over terms of negotiations, and whether they are happening, signals that a protracted economic fight lies ahead.As trade tensions flared between the world’s largest economies, communication between the United States and China has been so shaky that the two superpowers cannot even agree on whether they are talking at all.At a White House economic briefing this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent demurred multiple times when pressed about President Trump’s recent claim that President Xi Jinping of China had called him. Although top economic officials might usually be aware of such high-level talks, Mr. Bessent insisted that he was not logging the president’s calls.“I have a lot of jobs around the White House; running the switchboard isn’t one of them,” Mr. Bessent joked.But the apparent silence between the United States and China is a serious matter for the global economy.Markets are fixated on the mystery of whether back-channel discussions are taking place. Although the two countries have not severed all ties, it does seem that they have gone dark when it comes to conversations about tariffs.“China and the U.S. have not held consultations or negotiations on the issue of tariffs,” Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said at a news conference last Friday. “The United States should not confuse the public.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 175 Shares199 Views

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    GM Cuts Profit Forecast by 20% and Says Auto Tariffs Will Cost It Billions

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    General Motors now expects to earn a lot less than it did before President Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on imported cars and auto parts.General Motors cut its profit forecast for 2025 on Thursday by more than 20 percent and said the Trump administration’s tariffs would increase its costs by $4 billion to $5 billion this year.In a conference call with analysts, G.M. executives said the company now expected to make $8.2 billion to $10.1 billion this year, down from a previous forecast of $11.2 billion to $12.5 billion.“G.M.’s business is fundamentally strong as we adapt to the new trade policy environment,” the company’s chief executive, Mary T. Barra, said.In April, President Trump imposed tariffs of 25 percent on imported vehicles and will begin imposing the same duty on imported auto parts on Saturday. On Tuesday, the president modified how the tariffs are applied to give automakers some relief, including partial reimbursement for tariffs on imported parts for two years.Ms. Barra said G.M. hoped to offset about 30 percent of the impact of the tariffs by increasing production in U.S. plants, cutting costs and working with suppliers to raise their domestic production of parts and components.G.M. had previously said it was increasing pickup truck production at a plant near Fort Wayne, Ind., which will reduce the number of vehicles it imports from Canada and Mexico. Ms. Barra said output at the Fort Wayne factory would increase by about 50,000 trucks this year.She also said G.M. now planned to make more battery modules in its U.S. plants to raise the portion of domestic content in its electric vehicles.About $2 billion in tariff-related cost increases will come from vehicles that are made in Canada, Mexico and South Korea and sold in the United States.Analysts have predicted that the tariffs will add thousands of dollars to the cost of new cars and trucks, and that some or all of that will be passed on to consumers. In the call, G.M.’s chief financial officer, Paul Jacobson, said the company now expected new vehicle prices to rise 0.5 percent to 1 percent this year. Previously, the company forecast that pricing would fall by 1 percent to 1.5 percent.Other automakers are also planning to produce more vehicles in the United States. Mercedes-Benz said Thursday that it would build a new vehicle at an Alabama factory as part of what the German carmaker called a “deepening commitment” to manufacturing in the United States.While the company did not mention tariffs, Mercedes and other carmakers have been at pains in recent weeks to emphasize how many cars they already build in the United States and their plans to make more. Mercedes did not provide details about the car, except to say it will be a new design tailored to the U.S. market and begin production in 2027.The company’s factory near Tuscaloosa, Ala., primarily assembles luxury sport utility vehicles, including electric models, for sale in the United States and export to other markets.Jack Ewing More

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    in Economy

    A Tidal Wave of Change Is Headed for the U.S. Economy

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    When the Covid pandemic hit, factories in China shut down and global shipping traffic slowed. Within a matter of a few weeks, products began disappearing from U.S. store shelves and American firms that depend on foreign materials were going out of business.A similar trend is beginning to play out, but this time the catalyst is President Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to a minimum of 145 percent, an amount so steep that much of the trade between the United States and China has ground to a halt. Fewer massive container ships have been plying the ocean between Chinese and American ports, and in the coming weeks, far fewer Chinese goods will arrive on American shores.While high tariffs on Chinese products have been in place since early April, the availability of Chinese products and the price that consumers pay for them has not changed that much. But some companies are now starting to raise their prices. And experts say that the effects will become more and more obvious in the coming weeks, as a tidal wave of change stemming from canceled orders in Chinese factories works its way around the world to the United States.The number of massive container ships carrying metal boxes of toys, furniture and other products departing China for the United States has plummeted by about a third this month.The reason consumers haven’t felt many of the effects yet is because it takes 20 to 40 days for a container ship to travel across the Pacific Ocean. It then takes another one to 10 days for Chinese goods to make their way by train or truck to various cities around the country, economists at Apollo Global Management wrote in a recent report. That means that the higher tariffs on China that went into effect at the beginning of April are just starting to result in a drop in the number of ships arriving at American ports, a trend that should intensify.By late May or early June, consumers could start to see some empty shelves, and layoffs could occur for retailers and logistics industries. The major effects on the U.S. economy of shutting down trade with China will start to become apparent in the summer of 2025, when the United States might slip into a recession, said Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 175 Shares159 Views

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    Trump, on Tariffs, Says ‘Maybe the Children Will Have 2 Dolls Instead of 30’

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    At the end of a cabinet meeting, the president allowed for the possibility that trade war could disrupt supply chains.President Trump has a message for the nation’s children: Prepare to sacrifice for your country.He was taking questions at the end of one of his marathon cabinet meetings when he finally allowed that, yes, his tariff policies and the trade war he has set off with China may soon result in some emptier-than-usual shelves in stores. Specifically, toy stores.“You know, somebody said, ‘Oh, the shelves are going to be open,’” Mr. Trump said. “Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”This, from the billionaire, crypto-salesman, golf-club-operating, Palm Beach-by-way-of-Fifth Avenue president with the golden office and the golden triplex apartment. There he sat, surrounded by the other billionaires with whom he has filled his cabinet, telling the boys and girls of America they’ll just have to make do with fewer toys this year for the greater good.This grinchy pronouncement by the president had the value of being truthful.Many American toymakers and retailers have started to pause their orders as the effects of Mr. Trump’s tariffs ripple out, threatening to snarl supply chains. It could all have a big impact on this year’s holiday season since it takes months to manufacture, package and ship many products to the United States.Greg Ahearn, chief executive of the Toy Association, a U.S. industry group representing 850 toy manufacturers, told The Times that there is now a “frozen supply chain that is putting Christmas at risk.”“If we don’t start production soon,” Mr. Ahearn said, “there’s a high probability of a toy shortage this holiday season.”You hear that, kids? More

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    Here’s What 7 Americans Think of Trump’s First 100 Days

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    The first 100 days of President Trump’s second term have been a whirlwind of action, with the imposition of steep tariffs worldwide, the detention of immigrants and deep cuts to the federal work force.The New York Times has been talking with a group of voters who all cast their ballots in last November’s election with some trepidation. While they had expressed a range of hopes and concerns about the new administration, they have now seen enough to make some early judgments at the close of the first 100 days. (A recent Times/Siena College poll also found that majorities of voters, even many who approve of the job Mr. Trump is doing, view his first few months as “chaotic” and “scary.”)‘I don’t regret voting for him.’Jaime Escobar Jr., 46, from Roma, TexasAs mayor of the small border town of Roma, Jaime Escobar Jr. was accustomed to assessing whether strategies were working. At this point, Mr. Escobar remained mostly optimistic, but he was still wary.“I’m not saying I’m 100 percent happy with everything, but for the most part, I feel that Trump is tackling the issues that the American voters thought were important,” he said, referring to immigration and the economy. “I don’t regret voting for him.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More