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    Fed Under Pressure as Inflation Expectations Surge

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    Federal Reserve officials have had one clear message since President Trump sharply escalated the global trade war this month. Keeping inflation expectations in check as price pressures rise is their No. 1 priority.On Friday, they faced a big setback.A new survey released by the University of Michigan found that as consumer sentiment took another nosedive because of fears associated with Mr. Trump’s tariffs, expectations about inflation — in the year ahead and over a longer time horizon — jumped sharply.Over the next 12 months, respondents now expect inflation to surge to 6.7 percent, the highest reading since 1981 and a significant increase from the March level of 5 percent. In five years’ time, they are bracing for inflation to stay stuck above 4 percent. The Fed’s goal is 2 percent inflation.There are reasons to take this data with a grain of salt. For one, the survey tends to reflect political biases. Since Mr. Trump returned to the White House, Democrats, once optimistic about the outlook, have turned much more downbeat, about not only inflation but also growth and the labor market. Republicans, meanwhile, have flipped from being far more pessimistic during Biden’s presidency to much more positive.On the margins, that political divide may be beginning to narrow, with the decline in sentiment in April “pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation,” according to Joanne W. Hsu, director of the consumer surveys. Independents are also starting to change their opinions in a distinct way, accounting for a large part of the rise in longer-run inflation expectations.What has helped to somewhat alleviate concerns about the survey findings is the fact that market measures of longer-run inflation expectations, which are based on U.S. government bonds, have stayed far more stable. The divergence has been so stark as to prompt Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, to refer to the University of Michigan survey as an “outlier,” as recently as last month.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    What to Know About Who Pays the Higher Costs of Trump’s Tariffs

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    President Trump’s latest tariffs are about to become an unavoidable and expensive reality for American businesses and for people who rely on foreign goods.Shoppers buying clothes from retailers in China may soon pay more than twice as much, now that a special exemption for lower-value imports is disappearing. And companies involved in international trade must now make even more complicated calculations to decide how much they owe in tariffs.“Maybe 3 percent of the people are well prepared,” said Jeremy Page, a founding partner of Page Fura, an international trade law firm, whose clients include large companies. “And that might even be charitable.”Imports from China have been hit with tariffs of 145 percent. That means for every $100 worth of goods a business buys from that country, it has to pay $145 to the federal government. Goods from most other countries have a new 10 percent tax, though that could rise if the countries do not reach trade agreements with the United States by July. And there are separate tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum. Mr. Trump has also said he wants to impose new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and computer chips.Mr. Trump contends that the tariffs will encourage businesses to produce goods in the United States. The tariffs on Chinese goods will almost certainly reduce imports from the country. But American businesses will not be able to quickly get goods from elsewhere — U.S. imports from China totaled $439 billion last year — and they will end up owing huge amounts in tariffs.A garment factory in Guangzhou, China. Imports from China have been hit with tariffs of 145 percent. Qilai Shen for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs Could Impact Apparel Companies That Make Clothing in the U.S.

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    On the open 15th floor of a loft building in Midtown Manhattan, about a dozen skilled workers make their way through piles of pants, stitching each piece together with focus and precision. Some of the items are designed by Outlier, a fashion brand that produces its smaller runs and experimental products with the garment district’s ecosystem of contract manufacturers.It’s the kind of work that should get a boost from the stiff tariffs newly imposed on products entering the United States from nearly every other country. But the storeroom where Outlier keeps its fabric tells a more complicated story.The rolls of cloth and boxes of recycled goose down come from Italy and Switzerland, Thailand and New Zealand, countries with specialized industries developed over generations that are unlikely to be recreated in America. Take the linen, made from flax grown in a coastal region stretching from northern France to the Netherlands.“It would take a decade to get a crop growing,” said Tyler Clemens, Outlier’s co-founder. A linen shipment was headed for the cutting room; Mr. Clemens had just gotten the bill from the Department of Homeland Security with a charge labeled “IEEPA-RECIPROCAL,” after the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, one of the laws used to justify President Trump’s tariff measures.A fabric order for Outlier arriving at a factory in Manhattan. The fabric was made in Japan and dyed in Portugal before being shipped to the United States, where it incurred a tariff.Karsten Moran for The New York TimesOutlier’s material comes from abroad, as do some of its finished products. Karsten Moran for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares119 Views

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    Oil Prices Tumble Further as Trump’s Tariffs Weigh on Economic Outlook

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    U.S. oil prices fell sharply, briefly dipping below $60 a barrel on Sunday — their lowest level in almost four years — as the economic fallout from President Trump’s latest round of tariffs reverberated around the world.The price of crude oil is down more than 15 percent since last Wednesday, just before Mr. Trump revealed his plans to impose stiff new tariffs on imports from most countries. That prices have fallen so far so quickly reflects deepening concern that high tariffs could slow economic growth and perhaps even cause recessions in the United States and the countries it trades with.The cost of U.S. benchmark crude continued to fall on Monday, down more than 2 percent. Cheaper oil is generally good for consumers and businesses that use gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. In fact, Mr. Trump and his aides have pushed for lower energy prices to curb inflation.But if prices remain around these levels or fall further, U.S. oil and gas companies are likely to slow drilling, cut spending and lay off workers. That would be especially painful to oil-rich states like Texas and New Mexico.Another big reason that oil prices have weakened is that the OPEC cartel and its allies announced last week that they would accelerate plans to increase production. That will increase supply of oil at a time when many analysts expect demand to weaken.U.S. energy companies are also getting squeezed by higher costs for essential materials like steel tubing, which is subject to a 25 percent tariff Mr. Trump announced in February.Smaller oil companies — a key constituency for Mr. Trump — are likely to be among the first to slow down, as they tend to be more nimble and have fewer financial resources. Natural gas prices have been more resilient, providing some cushion for producers.Last week, the share price of an exchange-traded fund composed of U.S. oil and gas stocks fell by 20 percent in the two days after Mr. Trump’s tariff announcement. More

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    Bitcoin Is Down 10% Since Trump’s Global Tariff Announcement

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    Virtually everyone in the cryptocurrency world celebrated the second election of President Trump, an enthusiastic booster of the industry who promised to turn the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet.”But now the man nicknamed “the first Bitcoin president” is presiding over a Bitcoin crash.Since Mr. Trump announced his global tariffs last week, the price of Bitcoin has plunged 10 percent, dropping below $78,000 on Sunday night. In January, Bitcoin reached a record price of nearly $110,000 on the day that Mr. Trump was inaugurated.The rapid drop shows that Bitcoin, often pitched as a stable long-term source of value, is still subject to the gyrations of the broader market that has cratered since Mr. Trump announced broad import taxes last week. Many investors treat Bitcoin just like any other tech stock, a risky investment that it makes sense to sell in difficult times.Ever since he won a second term, Mr. Trump has largely made good on his promises to help the crypto industry. He has appointed regulators who support crypto and signed an executive order directing the creation of a government stockpile of Bitcoin.At the same time, Mr. Trump has also broadened his personal investments in the crypto world, marketing a so-called memecoin to his supporters.But the impact of his tariffs on the crypto market has led to some disgruntlement.“Crypto is weird, but it’s mostly correlated to optimism & risk appetite,” Haseeb Quresehi, a venture investor who specializes in crypto, wrote on social media on Sunday. “That optimism is crumbling under Trump’s silence.” More

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    Used Tesla Market Heats Up as Owners Sell to Protest Elon Musk

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    Teslas that have been sold or traded in during the backlash against the company’s chief executive have become bargains on lots.For the last several months, Ken Harvey has been cultivating a budding side business for his Honda and Mazda dealerships in Northern California: selling used Teslas.A few times a month, Mr. Harvey picks up a few pre-owned Teslas at a local automobile auction and offers them for sale, often at surprisingly affordable prices, thanks to a $4,000 federal tax credit that customers get for purchasing used electric vehicles priced under $25,000. Some consumers who qualify for state incentives, he said, end up with used Model 3 sedans for well under $20,000 — less than half the cost of a new one.“We sold three in the last week, maybe 20 since the beginning of the year,” said Mr. Harvey, whose family owns four Honda dealerships and two Mazda franchises in Alameda County, a suburb of San Francisco where Tesla has a car plant.“We have three in stock now, and two are on the way,” he added. “They won’t stay around more than a few days.”Welcome to the flip side of the backlash against Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive and one of President Trump’s closest confidants — a thriving trade in used Teslas.The used Tesla business had been growing for years before Mr. Musk and Mr. Trump became close, but their bonhomie has turbocharged it.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    7 Americans Weigh In on Trump’s Sweeping Tariffs

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    President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs this week on dozens of countries, with some of the steepest tariffs levied on some of America’s biggest trading partners. The move, arguably the most far-reaching of his second term so far, sent stocks into a nosedive and substantially raised the prospect of a recession.Voters were bracing for the effects in their own lives, but some said they were, for now, waiting and watching to see how all of this plays out.— More

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    Trump Officials Warn of Tariff Pain as Price Increases Loom and Stocks Tumble

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    In the weeks leading up to his expansive global tariffs, President Trump and his top aides tried to prime the public for economic pain. They warned that while there would be fallout from their aggressive trade strategy, it would prove short-lived and benefit the economy in the long run.Investors, businesses and others made clear on Thursday that the U.S. economy was not ready to accept that approach. Global markets tumbled, economists warned of a possible recession and consumers braced for price increases on cars, food, clothing and more.The early tumult underscored the high stakes of Mr. Trump’s agenda, which the president has framed as a painful medical procedure to rescue an economy he likened to a “sick patient.” In the eyes of Mr. Trump, the United States is going to “boom” once his tariffs have had time to reset the nation’s trade relationships, raise revenue and boost domestic production.But those tariffs are expected to send prices skyrocketing in the interim, an unwelcome development for Americans already struggling with years of elevated prices. Several economists have increased the odds of a recession in their forecasts as they projected a slowdown in consumer spending, business investment and economic growth.A new analysis from the Yale Budget Lab found that Mr. Trump’s overall tariffs could cause price levels to rise 2.3 percent in the short term. That would translate into an average loss of $3,800 in purchasing power per household based on 2024 dollars.“Prices are going to go up, period,” said Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, adding that companies were going to feel the immediate pinch. “These are really big tariffs. These are not things we can expect companies to just absorb.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More