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    Inflation Cooled Further in September, PCE Index Shows

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    Overall inflation slowed in September from a year earlier, though some signs of stubbornness lingered under the surface.Inflation has been cooling for two years, and fresh data released on Thursday showed that trend continued in September. Prices climbed just 2.1 percent compared with a year earlier.That is nearly back to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation goal — good news for both the Fed and the White House. It is also slower than the previous reading, which stood at 2.3 percent.Still, the report also shows evidence that price increases remain stickier under the surface.A closely watched inflation measure that strips out volatile food and fuel costs to give a sense of the underlying trend in prices was up 2.7 percent in September compared with a year earlier. That “core” inflation figure was unchanged from the previous reading, a sign that it was proving slow to cool. And on a monthly basis, core inflation actually accelerated slightly.While the figures were largely in line with what economists had expected, the stubbornness in core inflation reinforced that the Fed’s campaign to wrestle price increases back under control was not entirely finished.“All in all, this is a relatively good report,” said Omair Sharif, founder of the firm Inflation Insights. But he added that he thought core inflation could remain too quick for comfort in coming months, before fading more completely early next year.“It’s not a mission accomplished kind of number,” he said.The Fed lifted interest rates sharply in 2022 and early 2023 to try to slow the economy and wrestle inflation under control. But officials slashed them by half a percentage point in September, cutting interest rates for the first time in four years.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Inflation Is Basically Back to Normal. Why Do Voters Still Feel Blah?

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    Consumers still give the economy poor marks, though the job market is strong and price increases have faded for months.Grocery inflation has been cooling sharply, but Tamira Flamer, 27, says she hasn’t noticed. What she knows is that paper plates and meat remain more expensive than they were a few years ago.“I feel like it’s been rough,” said Ms. Flamer, a mother of two who drives for Amazon, while standing outside a Dollar General near her home in Norristown, Pa., on Sunday.Ms. Flamer, an undecided voter who says she is most focused on economic issues, underscores a challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris as the presidential election barrels toward its final days.Voters say that they are very focused on the economy as they head to the polls, yet surveys suggest that they feel relatively glum about its recent track record. That could hurt Ms. Harris while helping her opponent, former President Donald J. Trump.The lingering pessimism is also something of a puzzle. The job market has been chugging along, although more slowly, overall growth has been healthy and even inflation is more or less back to normal. Inflation data released on Thursday showed that prices have increased by a mild 2.1 percent over the past year.Confidence has crept back up as inflation has cooled, but it remains much lower than it was the last time the economy looked as solid as it does today. That is true for both the University of Michigan’s confidence index and a separate measure produced by the Conference Board, an organization that conducts business and economic research.Large Swing in Republican ConfidenceRepublicans were optimistic about the economy when former President Donald J. Trump was in office, and turned more negative as soon as President Biden was elected.

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    Consumer Confidence Index
    Source: University of Michigan By The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Walmart Holiday Shopping Plans Are Laid Months Before Black Friday

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    To prepare for ever-longer shopping season, thousands of employees were assembled for a retail jamboree in Florida’s August heat.It felt like calculated chaos inside the chilly convention center where Walmart had recreated one of its Supercenter stores. It was late August in Orlando, Fla., and the retailer had flown in thousands of workers to have a look. They were zipping around, trying to take it all in.There were dozens of lit-up Christmas trees and poinsettias, rows of Halloween candy, and racks of knit dresses and sweaters. A Minnie Mouse mascot danced around the toy section, while wacky inflatable ghosts and foxes hovered above the inflatable jack-o’-lanterns in a pumpkin patch. Along the way, Walmart workers were chowing down on samples of pulled pork and chips, Oreo cookies and ice cream.A candy cane door frame welcomed people to the North Pole — and into Walmart’s annual business meeting for the holiday shopping season.On that sweltering day, the nation’s largest retailer was trying to set the mood for holidays that were still months off. But foremost on the agenda for the 6,700 attendees was Walmart’s slate of fall and winter events.Beyond the festive mood, the holiday season is full of high stakes. It’s the busiest quarter of the year for most retailers, and Walmart’s preparations offer insights into consumer behavior and the state of the retail industry.Last year, Walmart began to see people starting their holiday shopping in earnest around Halloween.Todd Anderson for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Polls Show Trump’s Edge Shrinking on Voters’ Top Issue: The Economy

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    It remains priority No. 1 for many voters, particularly those who are still undecided, according to Times/Siena polling. But can Kamala Harris translate her gains into votes?The economy is still the No. 1 issue in the presidential election. Voters rated it as their top priority in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, as they have in every Times/Siena poll this year.And while former President Donald J. Trump remains the more trusted candidate in terms of handling the economy, Vice President Kamala Harris has closed much of the gap.Ms. Harris is in an unusual position, running as a sitting vice president alongside an unpopular president. Many voters say President Biden’s policies have hurt them — more than say the same about Mr. Trump’s policies — and economic concerns are a large driver of those feelings, recent polls show.Large majorities of voters rate the economy as only fair or poor, even though inflation has cooled and many other traditional indicators are positive. (Though experts note that concerns about inflation often linger, even as inflation rates lower.)But Ms. Harris has made some gains on the economy. In a September Times/Siena poll, likely voters favored Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy by 13 percentage points; that lead had shrunk to just six percentage points in the latest Times/Siena poll, which was conducted last week. Other pollsters have shown similar gains for the vice president on the issue.

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    Regardless of how you might vote, do you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on the economy?
    Notes: Question wording has been condensed. Margins are calculated using unrounded percentages. Sources: New York Times/Siena College surveys among likely voters conducted Sept. 3 to 6, 2024; Sept. 11 to 16, 2024; and Oct. 20 to 23, 2024. By The New York TimesMost currently view the economy negativelyThinking about the nation’s economy, how would you rate economic conditions today?

    Notes: Among registered voters. Question wording varies slightly by pollster. Sources: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, ABC News, Bloomberg News, Consumer Comfort Index: State of the Economy, SSRS, NORC, Washington Post, New York Times/Siena College.By The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Can Democrats Win Back Voters From Trump on Trade Policy?

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    The Biden administration has pursued a big shift in trade policy, but it’s not clear whether that will be enough to win votes.Since Donald J. Trump won over many working-class voters in 2016 with his vows to impose tariffs and rework “disastrous” trade deals, Democrats have been scrambling to win back supporters by taking a more protectionist trade approach.Over the last four years, the Biden administration spent more time emphasizing the harm trade policy has caused to American communities than the benefits. It hit the brakes on negotiating trade deals with other countries and chose to maintain and even increase Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products. And it pumped billions of dollars into new American factories to make semiconductors and solar panels.It’s a significant shift from the decades that both mainstream Democrats and Republicans spent working to promote trade and lower international barriers.For Vice President Kamala Harris, next week’s election will be a moment of truth for whether the strategy worked.Mr. Trump has helped bring trade to the forefront in presidential elections with his vitriolic criticisms of past policy and his proposals for high tariffs. It is an issue that resonates strongly with voters in Northern swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where manufacturing employment fell steeply in recent decades as factories moved abroad.Biden officials have been trying to persuade more trade-skeptical voters that their policies to encourage manufacturing in the United States are working, pointing to a recent surge in U.S. factory construction.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    GDP Report Shows US Economy Grew at 2.8% Rate

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    In a key economic report released just days before the presidential election, gross economic product rose at a 2.8 percent rate in the third quarter.Consumers are spending. Inflation is cooling. And the U.S. economy looks as strong as ever.Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. That came close to the 3 percent growth rate in the second quarter and was the latest indication that the surprisingly resilient recovery from the pandemic recession remained on solid footing.“The economy right now is firing on nearly all cylinders,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting and consulting firm RSM.The report was the first of three crucial indicators on the nation’s economy scheduled for release this week, just days before the presidential election and the next policymaking meeting of the Federal Reserve.The strength in the third quarter was again driven by robust consumer spending, which grew at a 3.7 percent rate, adjusted for inflation. Rising wages and low unemployment meant that Americans continued to earn more, while inflation continued to ease: Consumer prices rose at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter and were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier.As recently as a few weeks ago, many economists were concerned that spending was about to slow as the job market weakened and household savings dwindled. But revised data released last month showed that incomes and savings were stronger than initially reported, and recent data on the job market has been strong. That suggests that spending could continue to grow — especially because data released by the Conference Board this week showed that consumers were at last feeling more confident in the economy.“Most consumers continue to be working,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist for the Conference Board. “If you’re a consumer and you’re working, then you’re going to spend.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Economy Grew at 2.8% Rate in Third Quarter

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    In a key economic report released just days before the presidential election, growth was again driven by robust consumer spending.Consumers are spending. Inflation is cooling. And the U.S. economy looks as strong as ever.Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. That came close to the 3 percent growth rate in the second quarter and was the latest indication that the surprisingly resilient recovery from the pandemic recession remained on solid footing.“The economy right now is firing on nearly all cylinders,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting and consulting firm RSM.The report was the first of three crucial indicators on the nation’s economy scheduled for release this week, just days before the presidential election and the next policymaking meeting of the Federal Reserve.The strength in the third quarter was again driven by robust consumer spending, which grew at a 3.7 percent rate, adjusted for inflation. Rising wages and low unemployment meant that Americans continued to earn more, while inflation continued to ease: Consumer prices rose at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter and were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier.As recently as a few weeks ago, many economists were concerned that spending was about to slow as the job market weakened and household savings dwindled. But revised data released last month showed that incomes and savings were stronger than initially reported, and recent data on the job market has been strong. That suggests that spending could continue to grow — especially because data released by the Conference Board this week showed that consumers were at last feeling more confident in the economy.“Most consumers continue to be working,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist for the Conference Board. “If you’re a consumer and you’re working, then you’re going to spend.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Have Paychecks Kept Up With the Cost of Living?

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    On average, pay has risen faster than prices in recent years. But the overall picture is complicated — and it’s not just facts versus “vibes.”Have Americans’ paychecks kept up with the cost of living over the past several years?It is a surprisingly difficult question to answer.According to most Americans, the answer is a clear “no.” In polls and interviews ahead of the presidential election, people of virtually all ideologies and income levels say inflation has made it harder to make ends meet, eclipsing whatever raises they have managed to win from their employers.According to economic data, the answer appears, at least on the surface, to be “yes.” Income and earnings have outpaced inflation since the start of the pandemic, according to a variety of both government and private-sector sources. That is especially true for the lowest earners — a partial reversal of the rising inequality of recent decades.But this is not a simple case of facts versus “vibes.” Economic statistics are based on broad averages. Dig deeper, and the story becomes more complicated. How a given family or individual has fared over the past five years depends on a litany of factors: whether the earners own their home or rent; whether they had to buy a car or send a child to day care; whether they were able to change jobs or demand a raise.“I feel like some people are being very dismissive, saying, ‘Oh, people are wrong — there has been all this real wage growth,’ but that is a simple average,” said Stefanie Stantcheva, a Harvard economist who has studied how people experience inflation. “It’s actually very, very hard to say people are wrong — I would almost never say that.”The bottom line: Most American workers are probably making more money today, adjusted for inflation, than they were in 2019. But not all have seen their pay keep up with their own cost of living, and many — perhaps most — are lagging behind where they would be if prepandemic trends had continued unabated. Those complications may help explain why so many Americans believe they have fallen behind.

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    Change since end of 2019 in various earnings measures
    Notes: After-tax income is per capita and excludes government transfer payments and is adjusted for inflation by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Hourly earnings are for production and nonsupervisory workers and are adjusted for inflation by the CPI-W. Median weekly earnings are for full-time workers and are adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U. Average weekly earnings are for all workers and are also adjusted using the CPI-U. All series are monthly except for median weekly earnings, which are quarterly.Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkBy The New York Times

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    Change in inflation-adjusted weekly earnings by wage level, 2019-2024
    Note: Change is measured in the third quarter of each year, not seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York Times

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    Median weekly earnings vs. prepandemic trend
    Notes: Earnings are shown in 2023 dollars and are for full-time workers. Data is seasonally adjusted. Trend line is based on 2014 to 2019 data.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More