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    Retailers hike holiday guidance, but Abercrombie’s growth is slowing

    Lululemon raised its fourth quarter earnings and revenue guidance after striking a cautious tone in the lead up to the holiday shopping season.
    Abercrombie & Fitch also raised its guidance but only slightly, sending shares lower.
    Early reads have shown the holiday shopping season may have been better than expected, but was far from the blowout seen in previous years.

    A shopping bag from Abercrombie & Fitch (L), and the logo of Lululemon (R).

    ORLANDO, Fla. — Lululemon and Abercrombie & Fitch raised their fourth quarter outlooks on Monday after seeing a strong response from shoppers during the all-important holiday season. 
    Lululemon’s new outlook went over well with investors, leading shares to rise about 3% in premarket trading. But Abercrombie shares dropped about 8% as investors wonder if its rapid growth is coming to an end.

    Lululemon now expects sales to grow between 11% and 12% to between $3.56 billion and $3.58 billion, up from a previous range of $3.48 billion and $3.51 billion. 
    Excluding an additional fiscal week the company will have in the fourth quarter of 2024, Lululemon expects sales growth of between 6% and 7%. 
    The company also hiked its profit outlook. Lululemon is now forecasting fourth-quarter earnings per share to be between $5.81 and $5.85, compared to previous guidance of between $5.56 and $5.64. It expects gross margins to grow by 0.3 percentage points after previously forecasting they would decline between 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points. 
    “During the holiday season, our guests responded well to our product offering, enabling us to increase our fourth quarter guidance,” finance chief Meghan Frank said in a statement. 
    Meanwhile, Abercrombie also expects its holiday quarter to be slightly better than anticipated. The apparel company nudged up its net sales growth outlook to a range of between 7% and 8%, compared to previous guidance of between 5% and 7%. 

    Abercrombie now expects full-year sales to grow 15%. It previously expected sales to rise between 14% and 15% for the period.
    The outlook is a far cry from the blockbuster numbers that Abercrombie put out last year, when holiday sales jumped by a staggering 21% compared to the year-ago period. 
    Investors bullish on Abercrombie would say that it makes sense to see the company’s growth start to slow down as it matures and laps tougher comparisons from the year-ago period, but following about two years of explosive stock growth, some could be turning bearish. 
    Still, Abercrombie’s full year-sales guidance is close to what it put out last year, when revenue grew by 16%. 
    In a news release, Abercrombie CEO Fran Horowitz signaled that moving forward, the company will be more focused on boosting profits than sales as it looks to “drive long-term shareholder value.” 
    “Following an expected two years of double-digit top and bottom-line growth, I am as confident as ever in the power of our brands and operating model as we move forward, supported by the outstanding capabilities we’ve built,” said Horowitz. “In 2025, we will look to continue sustainable, profitable growth through the execution of our playbooks to win and retain customers around the world. Our goal is to leverage our healthy margin structure and balance sheet to grow operating income dollars and earnings per share at rates faster than sales.” 
    The retailers released their guidance ahead of the annual ICR conference in Orlando when some of the most prominent U.S. retailers are expected to announce early holiday results and meet with investors and analysts about their performance. The conference brings together Wall Street’s biggest banks, law firms, private equity firms and investors and is known to set the tone for consumer deal making and retailer performance at the start of the year. 
    Macy’s, which is expected to present at the conference, also released early results but didn’t have good news to share like some of its competitors. The department store is now expecting sales to be at, or slightly below, its previously issued range of between $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion. Shares fell more than 3% in premarket trading.
    Urban Outfitters also released early holiday results and said net sales for the two months ended Dec. 31 grew 10% compared to the year-ago period. Comparable retail segment sales rose 6%, driven by strong online sales.
    Urban’s namesake banner saw comparable sales fall 4% as the chain continued to underperform Anthropologie and Free People, where comparable sales grew 10% and 9%, respectively.
    Meanwhile, sales soared 55% at Urban’s rental service Nuuly, driven by a 53% increase in average active subscribers.
    Shares moved slightly higher in premarket trading.
    Overall, the holiday shopping season wasn’t expected to produce the blowout numbers that became common in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. The National Retail Federation said it was expecting sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5%. When inflation is taken into account, real growth was expected to be minimal.
    Still, some early reads have signaled that the holiday season may be a bit better than expected. 
    Retail sales for the holiday season in the U.S., excluding automotive sales, rose 3.8% year over year between Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online sales across payment types. More

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    Why global bond markets are convulsing

    Almost everywhere, government-bond yields are rising fast. Those on ten-year American Treasury bonds are almost 5%. German bunds now offer 2.6%, up from close to 2% in December. Japanese bond yields are climbing. Things are particularly extreme in Britain, where gilt yields recently reached almost 5%, their highest since 2008 (see chart 1). Rising yields are bad news for governments, which must pay more to service debts. They are also painful for all sorts of other borrowers, including many mortgage-holders, whose bills ultimately depend on governments’ borrowing costs. More

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    This ETF provider launches a new way to play Tesla

    An exchange-traded fund provider is helping investors make more bets on Wall Street’s most profitable momentum trades.
    GraniteShares, which debuted its first installment of single-stock ETFs in 2022, now manages 20 of them. It includes the GraniteShares YieldBoost TSLA ETF (TSYY), which launched last month. The fund gives investors exposure to Tesla.

    “This is about more and more people taking charge of their own finances,” GraniteShares CEO William Rhind told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “They want to be able to actively manage that and maybe try and outperform… That’s where we see things like leverage, single stocks really playing.”
    He calls demand “a worldwide phenomenon” because it’s not just an opportunity for U.S. investors.
    “We have investors all around the world that are looking to the U.S. ETF market first because that’s the biggest source of liquidity,” added Rhind. “They’re looking to the names that they know and love – the Teslas of the world [and] the Nvidias of the world. They’re only available here in the U.S., and that’s why people come here to trade them.”
    But the firm acknowledges the strategy isn’t suited for everyone.
    GraniteShares includes a disclosure in bold on its website: “An investment in these ETFs involve significant risks.”
    As of Friday’s close, Tesla stock is nearly $100, or about 19%, off its all-time high – hit on Dec. 18.

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    Bitcoin soared in 2024. How much — if any — should you own?

    Bitcoin was the top-performing asset class in 2024, rising about 125%. By comparison, the S&P 500 grew 23%.
    However, investors should only own a small share of crypto due to its volatility — generally no more than 5% of total holdings, experts said.
    Some think crypto doesn’t have a place in investment portfolios.
    Investors should plan to hold bitcoin for the long term and dollar-cost average into it.

    A bitcoin ATM in Miami. 
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Bitcoin prices soared in 2024. But you may want to tread with caution before euphoria leads you on a hasty buying spree.
    Bitcoin and other crypto should generally account for just a sliver of investor portfolios — generally no more than 5% — due to its extreme volatility, according to financial experts.

    Some investors may be wise to stay away from it altogether, they said.
    “You’re not going to have the same size allocation in bitcoin as you would Nasdaq or the S&P 500,” said Ivory Johnson, a certified financial planner and founder of Delancey Wealth Management, based in Washington, D.C.
    “Whenever you have a real volatile asset class, you need less of it in the portfolio to have the same impact” as traditional assets like stocks and bonds, said Johnson, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

    Why bitcoin prices increased in 2024

    Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, was the top-performing investment of 2024, by a long shot. Prices surged about 125%, ending the year around $94,000 after starting in the $40,000 range.
    By comparison, the S&P 500, a U.S. stock index, rose 23%. The Nasdaq, a tech-heavy stock index, grew 29%.

    Prices popped after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win. His administration is expected to embrace deregulatory policies that would spur crypto demand.

    A cartoon image of President-elect Donald Trump holding a bitcoin token in Hong Kong, China, on Dec. 5, 2024, to mark the cryptocurrency reaching over $100,000. 
    Justin Chin/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    Last year, the Securities and Exchange Commission also — for the first time — approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in bitcoin and ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, making crypto easier for retail investors to buy.
    But experts cautioned that lofty profits may belie an underlying danger.
    “With high returns come high risk, and crypto is no exception,” Amy Arnott, a portfolio strategist for Morningstar Research Services, wrote in June.
    Bitcoin has been nearly five times as volatile as U.S. stocks since September 2015, and ether has been nearly 10 times as volatile, Arnott wrote.
    “A portfolio weighting of 5% or less seems prudent, and many investors may want to skip cryptocurrency altogether,” she said.

    1% to 2% is ‘reasonable’ for bitcoin, BlackRock says

    Bitcoin lost 64% and 74% of its value in 2022 and 2018, respectively.
    Mathematically, investors need a 100% return to recover from a 50% loss.
    So far, crypto returns have been high enough to offset its additional risk — but it’s not a given that pattern will continue, Arnott said.

    You’re not going to have the same size allocation in bitcoin as you would Nasdaq or the S&P 500.

    Ivory Johnson
    CFP, founder of Delancey Wealth Management

    There are a few reasons for this: Crypto has become less valuable as a portfolio diversifier as it’s gotten more mainstream, Arnott wrote. Its popularity among speculative buyers also “makes it prone to pricing bubbles that will eventually burst,” she added.
    BlackRock, a money manager, thinks there’s a case for owning bitcoin in a diversified portfolio, for investors who are comfortable with the “risk of potentially rapid price plunges” and who believe it will become more widely adopted, experts at the BlackRock Investment Institute wrote in early December.
    (BlackRock offers a bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT.)
    More from Personal Finance:Why to tweak your investments after lofty stock returnsHow to make the most of crypto in 401(k) plansTarget-date funds don’t work for everyone
    A 1% to 2% allocation to bitcoin is a “reasonable range,” BlackRock experts wrote.
    Going beyond would “sharply increase” bitcoin’s share of a portfolio’s total risk, they said.
    For example, a 2% bitcoin allocation accounts for roughly 5% of the risk of a traditional 60/40 portfolio, BlackRock estimated. But a 4% allocation swells that figure to 14% of total portfolio risk, it said.

    More ‘speculation’ than investment?

    By comparison, Vanguard, another asset manager, doesn’t currently have plans to launch a crypto ETF or offer one on its brokerage platform, officials said.
    “In Vanguard’s view, crypto is more of a speculation than an investment,” Janel Jackson, Vanguard’s former global head of ETF Capital Markets and Broker & Index Relations, wrote in January 2024.

    Stock investors own shares of companies that produce goods or services, and many investors get dividends; bond investors receive regular interest payments; and commodities are real assets that meet consumption needs, Jackson wrote.
    “While crypto has been classified as a commodity, it’s an immature asset class that has little history, no inherent economic value, no cash flow, and can create havoc within a portfolio,” wrote Jackson, now an executive in the firm’s Financial Advisor Services unit.

    Dollar-cost average and hold for the long term

    Ultimately, one’s total crypto allocation is a function of an investor’s appetite for and ability to take risk, according to financial advisors.
    “Younger, more aggressive investors might allocate more [crypto] to their portfolios,” said Douglas Boneparth, a CFP based in New York and member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.
    Investors generally hold about 5% of their classic 80/20 or 60/40 portfolio in crypto, said Boneparth, president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth.

    “I think it could be a good idea to have some exposure to bitcoin in your portfolio, but it’s not for everyone and it will remain volatile,” Boneparth said. “As far as other cryptocurrencies are concerned, it’s difficult to pinpoint which ones are poised to be a good long-term investment. That’s not to say there won’t be winners.”
    Investors who want to buy into crypto should consider using a dollar-cost-averaging strategy, said Johnson, of Delancey Wealth Management.
     “I buy 1% at a time until I get to my target risk,” Johnson said. “And that way I’m not putting 3%, 4%, 5% at one time and then something happens where it drops precipitously.”
    It’d also be prudent for investors interested in crypto to buy and hold it for the long term, as they would with other financial assets, Johnson said.
    Morningstar suggests holding cryptocurrency for at least 10 years, Arnott wrote. More

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    Nordstrom raises sales outlook after holiday season was better than feared

    Nordstrom raised its full-year sales outlook after holiday spending came in better than expected at its website and stores.
    Yet the department store operator stuck by its profit outlook.
    CEO Erik Nordstrom credited the company’s “efforts to remain competitive in the promotional environment and the strength of our offering.”

    Shoppers walk into a Nordstrom department store in Austin, Texas, on March 3, 2023.
    Brandon Bell | Getty Images

    Nordstrom on Friday raised its full-year sales outlook, after holiday shopping at its stores and on its website came in stronger than the department store’s cautious expectations.
    The company stuck by its profit guidance despite the higher sales guidance.

    The Seattle-based retailer said it now expects full-year revenue growth of 1.5% to 2.5%, which includes the effect of having one fewer fiscal week. That compares to its previous outlook of flat to up 1%.
    Nordstrom struck a conservative note with its outlook in late November, despite topping Wall Street’s expectations for fiscal third-quarter sales. It had projected full-year revenue to range from flat to up 1%. It said adjusted earnings for the year would range between $1.75 and $2.05 per share. Its revenue includes retail sales and credit card revenue.
    On an earnings call at the time, CEO Erik Nordstrom said the company had seen “a noticeable decline in sales trends towards the end of October” and factored that into its forecast.
    Yet in a news release on Friday, he chalked up better-than-expected holiday sales to the company’s “efforts to remain competitive in the promotional environment and the strength of our offering.”
    Nordstrom said net sales rose 4.9% and comparable sales, a metric that takes out the effect of store openings and closures, increased 5.8% for the nine-week holiday period that ended Jan. 4 compared with the year-ago quarter that ended Dec. 30.

    During the holiday period, net sales at the Nordstrom banner increased 3.7% and comparable sales rose 6.5%. At Nordstrom Rack, the company’s off-price banner, net sales were up 7.4% and comparable sales increased 4.3%.
    The department store operator’s results provide more insights for investors monitoring the health of U.S. consumers and the performance of retailers during the key shopping season. Retailers, including Walmart, Best Buy, Macy’s and others, will report earnings starting in late February.
    So far, early holiday numbers have looked promising. Online spending in the U.S. rose nearly 9% from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 compared to the year-ago period and totaled $241.4 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. Retail sales for the holiday season in the U.S., excluding automotive sales, rose 3.8% year over year for the period from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online sales across payment types.
    Nordstrom’s update comes as the founding family prepares to take the retailer private. Nordstrom announced in late December a roughly $6.25 billion buyout deal with the family and Mexican department store El Puerto de Liverpool. The transaction, which was approved by the company’s board of directors, is expected to close in the first half of 2025.
    Shares of Nordstrom closed at $24.01, down roughly 4% from its 52-week high. The company is scheduled to report its full fourth-quarter and full-year results on March 4.

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    Airlines extend travel waivers due to LA wildfires

    American Airlines, United Airlines, Southwest, JetBlue and other carriers waived change fees and fare differences to the Los Angeles area.
    The wildfires have burned more than 10,000 homes and other structures.
    A Delta Air Lines executive said sales of Los Angeles flights have declined.

    In this aerial view taken from a helicopter, burned homes are seen during the Palisades fire in the Malibu area of Los Angeles county, California, on Jan. 9, 2025.
    Josh Edelson | Afp | Getty Images

    Airlines have extended travel waivers for Los Angeles airports as wildfires continue to burn in the area.
    American Airlines, United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, JetBlue Airways and other carriers that serve the area have waived fees for flight changes for travelers booked to Los Angeles while the city grapples with power outages, water shortages and conservation, as well as the outright damage of more than 10,000 homes and other structures.

    On Friday, the area’s airports were operating normally, according to flight-tracking platform FlightAware, but parts of the city were still in the grip of the wildfires. Power outages were reported across Los Angeles County and local residents in the decimated Pacific Palisades area were told to boil or use bottled water. Parts of the county were also still under evacuation orders as firefighters sought to contain the fires.

    Read more CNBC airline news

    American Airlines on Friday said travelers booked to or from Hollywood Burbank Airport, Los Angeles International Airport, Ontario International Airport and John Wayne Airport, which serves Orange County, can rebook without paying a change fee or fare difference if they can fly as late as Jan. 20.
    Southwest said the wildfires could affect service to those airports and that customers can rebook within 14 days of their original travel dates without additional charges. It said customers could also change their trips to other California cities: Palm Springs, Santa Barbara and San Diego.
    Meanwhile, a Delta Air Lines executive on Friday said sales of flights to Los Angeles, one of the carrier’s busiest hubs and a generator of high-value business and leisure travel, have declined.
    “We monitor sales on a daily basis by geographic region, and we have seen a decline in sales, not a wholesale reduction or an uptick in cancellations, but a decline in sales during this period,” Delta’s president, Glen Hauenstein, said on an earnings call, in which the airline also said it had otherwise strong travel demand across its network. “As soon as the period ends, we can probably put a wrapper around how much we thought that cost us. But I don’t think it’s going to be significant to the quarter, hopefully not.”

    Hauenstein said, however, that there is often an uptick in demand after natural disasters because of rebuilding.
    “Our hearts go out to everybody in Los Angeles affected by this,” he said. “But from a long-term airline perspective, we faced hurricanes, we faced flooding, we faced all that. And usually, the impacts are in the beginning phases, followed by a recovery phase.”

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    Airlines cancel more than 3,000 U.S. flights amid storm, Delta slide evacuation at Atlanta

    Airlines canceled more than 3,000 U.S. flights while more than 3,000 more were delayed.
    A massive winter storm snarled travel across the Southern U.S.
    A Delta flight aborted takeoff and evacuated passengers via slides at Atlanta’s airport, further disrupting operations.

    Snow blankets the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport as a winter storm moves into the area on Jan. 10, 2025.
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    Airlines canceled more than 3,000 flights on Friday as a massive winter storm snarled travel across the Southern U.S., while more than 4,000 others were delayed.
    Operations were further disrupted after a Delta Air Lines Boeing 757-300 halted takeoff because of an engine problem, shortly after 9 a.m. at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, the world’s busiest and Delta’s main hub. The 201 passengers and seven crew members aboard were evacuated on emergency slides.

    Four passengers reported minor injuries, with one transported and three treated on the scene, according to an airport spokesperson.
    The Federal Aviation Administration said it’s investigating the incident.
    “Delta’s flight crew followed established procedures to suspend the takeoff of flight 2668 from Atlanta (ATL) to Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) after an indication of an engine issue,” Delta said. “Nothing is more important than the safety of our people and customers, and we apologize to our customers for their experience. We are working to support our customers and get them to their destinations as safely and quickly as possible.”
    Some 1,100 flights to and from Atlanta, more than half of the day’s schedule, were canceled, while upward of 400 more were delayed, according to flight tracker FlightAware. The airport had a ground stop in place, which halts flights bound for that airport at their origin so the facility isn’t overwhelmed with planes.

    Read more CNBC airline news

    Two of American Airlines’ hubs of Dallas Fort Worth International Airport and Charlotte Douglas International Airport were also heavily affected by the storm, with more than 1,200 flights to and from those two airports canceled. Most of DFW’s flights were also canceled on Thursday as the storm dumped snow in the area.
    Delta, Southwest, American and other carriers waived change fees and fare differences because of the storms and severe weather. More

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    The Los Angeles fires will be extraordinarily expensive

    The fires that are burning through southern California may be shocking, but they are not surprising. Anyone who lived in the Hollywood Hills was aware of the danger. And for anyone who forgot, their annual insurance renewal provided a reminder at considerable expense. Such moments occasionally dampened the mood in the City of Angels. Now the promised catastrophe has arrived. More