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    The boldest bitcoin predictions for 2025 are in — and most see prices doubling to $200,000

    After a blistering 150% rally in bitcoin this year, crypto investors and industry executives told CNBC they’re expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new all-time highs in 2025.
    Several industry watchers who spoke to CNBC forecast bitcoin will hit $200,000 in 2025.
    The highest call is for bitcoin to surge to $250,000.

    Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are seen in this illustration taken Nov. 25, 2024.
    Dado Ruvic | Reuters

    After a blistering rally in bitcoin this year, crypto investors and industry executives told CNBC they’re expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new all-time highs in 2025.
    In December, the world’s largest cryptocurrency broke the highly-anticipated $100,000, setting a record high price above that. That came after Donald Trump — who ran on a prominently pro-crypto policy platform — secured a historic election win in November.

    Trump’s imminent return to the White House has boosted sentiment surrounding crypto with many industry executives and analysts expecting him to promote a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets.
    During his election campaign, Trump vowed to replace incumbent Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who has taken aggressive legal actions against various crypto firms. Gensler agreed to step down from the SEC in 2025.

    Trump has also indicated the U.S. could establish a strategic bitcoin reserve, by pooling funds obtained through seizures from criminal activity.
    Also in 2024, bitcoin topped 2021’s price milestone of close to $70,000 after the SEC gave the green light to the first U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.
    The ETF approval was widely viewed as a key moment for the cryptocurrency as it broadens its appeal to more mainstream investors.

    The other key moment in 2024 was the halving, an event that takes places every four years and reduces the supply of bitcoin onto the market. This is typically very supportive for bitcoin’s price.
    These developments helped move crypto past the narrative of an industry marred by scandal. That was the dominant theme of 2023 as two of crypto’s most prominent figures — FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance’s Changpeng Zhao — both received prison sentences over criminal charges.
    This year, bitcoin has more than doubled in price. The token is widely expected to see even more positive price momentum in 2025 — with several industry watchers predicting a doubling in value to $200,000.

    CoinShares: $80,000-$150,000

    James Butterfill, head of research for crypto-focused asset manager CoinShares, told CNBC that he sees prices of both $150,000 and $80,000 being on the cards for bitcoin in 2025.
    Butterfill said in the long term it wouldn’t be “unreasonable” to expect bitcoin to become worth about 25% of gold’s market share — up from about 10% currently. That would equate to a price of $250,000.
    But he doesn’t see that happening next year. “Timing of this is very difficult though and I don’t expect this to occur in 2025, but it will head in that direction,” Butterfill told CNBC via email.
    He said that it is “likely” bitcoin could hit both $80,000 and $150,000 during the course of the year.  
    Butterfill’s $80,000 call, if hit, would be a result of Trump’s promised pro-crypto policies not materializing.
    “Disappointment surrounding Trump’s proposed crypto policies and doubts about their enactment could prompt a significant market correction,” Butterfill said.
    Next year, Butterfill expects a favorable U.S. regulatory environment to be the primary driver supporting bitcoin prices.
    In 2023, CoinShares forecast bitcoin at $80,000 in 2024.

    Matrixport: $160,000

    Matrixport, a crypto financial services firm, said bitcoin could hit $160,000 in 2025.
    “This outlook is supported by sustained demand for Bitcoin ETFs, favorable macroeconomic trends, and an expanding global liquidity pool,” Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport told CNBC by email.
    Bitcoin is known to be very volatile with the potential for corrections of between 70% and 80% from all-time highs. Thielen said the drawdowns in 2025 will be “less pronounced.”
    “Bitcoin’s growing base of dip buyers and robust institutional support is expected to mitigate severe corrections,” Thielen said.
    Matrixport predicted in 2023 that bitcoin would hit $125,000 in 2024.

    Galaxy Digital: $185,000

    Alex Thorn, head of research at crypto-focused asset manager Galaxy Digital, sees bitcoin crossing $150,000 in the first half of the year before reaching $185,000 in the fourth quarter.
    “A combination of institutional, corporate, and nation state adoption will propel Bitcoin to new heights in 2025,” Thorn wrote in a research note shared with CNBC.
    “Throughout its existence, Bitcoin has appreciated faster than all other asset classes, particularly the S&P 500 and gold, and that trend will continue in 2025. Bitcoin will also reach 20% of Gold’s market cap.”
    Galaxy predicts U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded products will collectively cross $250 billion in assets under management in 2025.
    The firm expects next year will also see five Nasdaq 100 companies and five nation states add bitcoin to their balance sheets or sovereign wealth funds.

    Standard Chartered: $200,000

    Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered is calling for a doubling in price for bitcoin. The bank’s head of digital assets research said in a note earlier this month that he expects bitcoin to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025.
    Standard Chartered expects institutional flows into bitcoin to “continue at or above the 2024 pace” next year.
    Bitcoin inflows from institutions have already reached 683,000 BTC since the start of the year, the bank noted, via U.S. spot ETFs that were largely purchased by MicroStrategy, a software firm and effective bitcoin proxy.
    Kendrick said bitcoin purchases by MicroStrategy should “match or exceed its 2024 purchases” next year.
    Pension funds should also start including more bitcoin in their portfolio via U.S. spot ETFs next year thanks to anticipated reforms from the incoming Trump administration to rules on so-called “TradFi” (traditional finance) firms making investments in digital currencies, he added.
    “Even a small allocation of the USD 40tn in US retirement funds would significantly boost BTC prices,” Kendrick noted. “We would turn even more bullish if BTC saw more rapid uptake by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), or a potential US strategic reserve fund.”

    Carol Alexander: $200,000

    Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex, sees $200,000 bitcoin as a possibility next year.
    “I’m more bullish than ever for 2025,” Alexander told CNBC, adding bitcoin’s price “could easily reach $200,000 but there are no signs of volatility reducing.”
    “By the summer I expect that it will be trading around $150,000 plus or minus $50,000.” Alexander clarified she doesn’t actually own any bitcoin herself.
    Explaining her rationale, Alexander said that supportive U.S. regulation will boost bitcoin, however, a lack of regulation on crypto exchanges will continue to drive volatility due to highly-leveraged trades shooting prices up and down.
    Alexander has a history of correctly calling bitcoin’s price. Last year, she told CNBC that bitcoin would hit $100,000 in 2024, which it did.

    Bit Mining: $180,000 – $190,000

    Youwei Yang, chief economist at Bit Mining, is predicting bitcoin will hit a price of between $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025 — but he’s also cautious of potential pullbacks in price.
    “Bitcoin’s price in 2025 is likely to see both significant upward momentum and occasional sharp corrections,” Yang told CNBC. “In moments of market shocks, such as a major stock market downturn, bitcoin could temporarily drop to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain bullish.”
    Factors underlying an anticipated bitcoin rally in 2025 include lower interest rates, support from Trump, and increased institutional adoption.
    “Based on these dynamics, I predict Bitcoin could peak at $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, aligning with historical cycle patterns and the growing mainstream adoption of crypto,” Yang said.
    Nevertheless, Yang also expects next year to bring a number of “corrections” for bitcoins price, too.
    Risks to the downside include U.S.-China tensions, global capital market disruptions, potential unexpected restrictive measures, and possible delays to the Fed rate-cutting cycle.
    Last year, Yang forecast bitcoin would hit $75,000 in 2024.

    Maple Finance: $180,000 – $200,000

    Sid Powell, CEO and co-founder of centralized finance platform Maple Finance, is targeting a price of between $180,000 and $200,000 for bitcoin by the end of 2025.
    “If you look historically when we saw gold ETFs come in, the inflows in the first year increased dramatically in subsequent years — and I think we can expect to see that with the bitcoin ETFs,” Powell told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
    “I think we will see higher inflows in subsequent years as bitcoin and indeed crypto becomes a core asset allocation for institutional asset managers,” Powell added.
    Another factor Powell sees boosting bitcoin’s price is the anticipation of a bitcoin strategic reserve in the U.S.
    Still, Maple Finance’s boss is mindful about market pullbacks. “I think you’ll of course see corrections — crypto remains a cyclical industry,” Powell told CNBC.

    In previous market cycles, bitcoin has risen wildly over the course of a few months before plummeting sharply in value.
    Take the previous cycle, for example: in 2021, bitcoin rallied to nearly $70,000 as more and more investors piled in but the subsequent year, the token plunged to less than $17,000 on the back of a series of major crypto company bankruptcies.
    However, Powell stressed that the 70% to 80% drawdowns bitcoin has seen in cycles past are unlikely in 2025 “because there is more of a buffer from those institutional inflows into the sector.”

    Nexo: $250,000

    Elitsa Taskova, chief product officer of crypto lending platform Nexo, is more bullish on bitcoin’s 2025 prospects than the general consensus.
    “We see bitcoin more than doubling to $250,000 within a year,” Taskova told CNBC, adding that in the longer term — as in, over the next decade — she sees the entire crypto market capitalization surpassing that of gold.
    “These projections align with ongoing trends and social markers: increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, more Bitcoin and crypto-related exchange-traded products (ETPs), and stronger adoption,” Nexo’s product chief said.
    Supportive macroeconomic conditions, such as easing of monetary policy from the world’s major central banks, is likely to boost bitcoin, she added.
    “The Federal Reserve’s balancing act – managing interest rates and inflation while avoiding stagnation – will be pivotal,” she said, cautioning that on the flipside, persistent inflation could also prompt a hawkish pivot.
    “As the U.S. leads in crypto-related capital deployment, rate decisions and inflation dynamics will likely remain key influences on bitcoin’s price in 2025.” More

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    Exchange-traded funds have a ‘tax magic’ that many mutual funds don’t offer

    ETF Strategist

    ETF Street
    ETF Strategist

    Fund managers can generate capital gains taxes for shareholders when they buy and sell securities.
    However, fewer exchange-traded fund investors get such an annual tax bill relative to those holding mutual funds.
    ETFs have these tax benefits due to “in-kind” transactions, experts said.

    Israel Sebastian | Moment | Getty Images

    Investors who hold exchange-traded funds can often escape a tax bill incurred by those with mutual funds, which are generally less tax efficient, according to investment experts.
    ETFs and mutual funds are baskets of stocks, bonds and other financial assets overseen by professional money managers. But they have a different legal structure that bestows ETFs with a “tax magic that’s unrivaled by mutual funds,” Bryan Armour, the director of passive strategies research for North America and editor of the ETFInvestor newsletter at Morningstar, wrote this year.

    That tax savings relates to annual capital gains distributions within the funds.
    Capital gains taxes are owed on investment profits.
    Fund managers can generate such taxes within a fund when they buy and sell securities. The taxes then get passed along to all the fund shareholders, who owe a tax bill even if they reinvest those distributions.
    The ETF tax advantage is by virtue of “in-kind creations and redemptions,” which essentially provides for tax-free trades for many ETFs, experts explain. (The ETF’s in-kind transaction mechanism is somewhat complex. At a high level, it involves large institutional investors called “authorized participants,” which create or redeem ETF shares directly with the ETF provider.)
    The tax advantage is generally most apparent for stock funds, they said.

    For example, more than 60% of stock mutual funds distributed capital gains in 2023, according to Morningstar. That was true for just 4% of ETFs.
    Less than 4% of ETFs are expected to distribute capital gains in 2024, Morningstar estimates. Such data isn’t yet available for mutual funds.

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    Here’s a look at other stories offering insight on ETFs for investors.

    Importantly, this tax advantage is only relevant for investors holding funds in taxable accounts, experts said.
    It’s a moot point for retirement account investors like those with a 401(k) plan or individual retirement account, which already come with tax benefits, experts said.
    The tax advantage “really helps the non-IRA account more than anything,” said Charlie Fitzgerald III, a certified financial planner based in Orlando, Florida, and a founding member of Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo.
    “You’ll have tax efficiency that a standard mutual fund is not going to be able to achieve, hands down,” he said.

    However, ETFs don’t always have a tax advantage, experts said.
    For example, certain ETF holdings may not be able to benefit from in-kind transactions, Armour said.
    Examples include physical commodities, as well as derivatives like swaps, futures contracts, currency forwards and certain options contracts, he said.
    Additionally, certain nations like Brazil, China, India, South Korea and Taiwan may treat in-kind redemptions of securities domiciled in those countries as taxable events, he said. More

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    Treasury small business ownership rule on hold as court eyes constitutionality

    Small businesses had been required to report “beneficial ownership information” to the Treasury Department by Jan. 13, 2025, or risk financial penalties.
    The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order late on Dec. 26 that halted enforcement. It comes just days after a previous delay, from Jan. 1.
    Businesses aren’t required to file a BOI report and won’t face liability while that order is in effect.
    It will likely be in force until at least March, one legal expert said.

    Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury secretary, on a tour of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) in Vienna, Virginia, on Jan. 8, 2024.
    Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    An upcoming Treasury Department deadline for millions of small businesses to fulfill a new reporting requirement on “beneficial ownership information” was delayed again, following a court order that suspended enforcement.
    The regulation, which would require small businesses to disclose the identity of people who directly or indirectly own a control a company, is designed to prevent criminals from hiding illicit activity conducted through shell companies or opaque ownership structures, the Treasury said.

    The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order late on Dec. 26 that halted enforcement while the court “considers the parties’ weighty substantive arguments” on the constitutionality of the Corporate Transparency Act, which created the BOI reporting requirement, the order said.
    The new deadline, which had been Jan. 13, is now unclear.
    “While it is not known how long the injunction will remain in effect, the case is calendared for oral argument en banc on March 25, 2025, so we expect that the injunction will be effective at least through March,” Daniel Stipano, a partner at law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, wrote in an email.
    In the interim, businesses aren’t required to file BOI reports to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as FinCEN, which is part of the Treasury.

    Businesses don’t face liability for the time being

    Whiplash for small businesses

    The delay represents a bit of legal whiplash for small business owners.
    On Dec. 3, a federal court in Texas temporarily blocked the Treasury from enforcing BOI reporting rules, which at that time were set to take effect Jan. 1, 2025.

    Then, on Dec. 23, a motions panel of 5th Circuit lifted that enforcement injunction after an appeal from the federal government. On Dec. 26, a different panel of that same appeals court – the merits panel – put the injunction back into place.
    “The bottom line is that no one needs to file a BOI Report – unless and until the injunction is lifted,” Stipano explained in an email.

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    China’s firms are taking flight, worrying its rulers

    FOR DECADES China has put foreign capital to work. Officials encouraged Western firms to trade technology for access to its vast market, helping to build up Chinese competitors that were often better and always cheaper. They began shipping goods westwards. The resulting “China shock” is often blamed for causing economic dislocation and despair in America’s industrial heartlands. Now, however, it is China’s turn to worry about offshoring. Its manufacturers are taking flight. More

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    Manmohan Singh was India’s economic freedom fighter

    IT IS FITTING that Manmohan Singh, who unshackled Indian trade and industry as the country’s finance minister in 1991, was the son of an importer. His father’s firm in Peshawar brought dry fruit and spices to India from Afghanistan. As a schoolboy, Mr Singh would fill his pockets with almonds and raisins that his classmates tried to steal. Even from an early age he appreciated the fruits of international trade. More

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    If interest rates remain ‘higher for longer,’ the winners are those with cash accounts

    The Federal Reserve in December projected fewer interest rate cuts for 2025.
    Yields on high-yield savings accounts, money market funds, certificates of deposit and other cash-like accounts should benefit from this “higher for longer” rate environment.

    Images By Tang Ming Tung | Digitalvision | Getty Images

    Many people, especially those with debt, will be discouraged by the recent Federal Reserve forecast of a slower pace of interest rate cuts than previously forecast.
    However, others with money in high-yield cash accounts will benefit from a “higher for longer” regime, experts say.

    “If you’ve got your money in the right place, 2025 is going to be a good year for savers — much like 2024 was,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

    Why higher for longer is the 2025 ‘mantra’

    Returns on cash holdings are generally correlated with the Fed’s benchmark interest rate. If the Fed raises interest rates, then those for high-yield savings accounts, certificates of deposit, money market funds and other types of cash accounts generally rise, too.
    The Fed increased its benchmark rate aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to rein in high inflation, ultimately bringing borrowing costs from rock-bottom rates to their highest level in more than 22 years.  

    It started throttling them back in September. However, Fed officials projected this month that it would cut rates just twice in 2025 instead of the four it had expected three months earlier.
    “Higher for longer is the mantra headed into 2025,” McBride said. “The big change since September is explained by notable upward revisions to the Fed’s own inflation projections for 2025.”

    The good and bad news for consumers

    The bad news for consumers is that higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, said Marguerita Cheng, a certified financial planner and CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
    “[But] higher interest rates can help individuals of all ages and stages build savings and prepare for any emergencies or opportunities that may arise — that’s the good news,” said Cheng, who is a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
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    High-yield savings accounts that pay an interest rate between 4% and 5% are “still prevalent,” McBride said.
    By comparison, top-yielding accounts paid about 0.5% in 2020 and 2021, he said.
    The story is similar for money market funds, he explained.
    Money market fund interest rates vary by fund and institution, but top-yielding funds are generally in the 4% to 5% range.
    However, not all financial institutions pay these rates.
    The most competitive returns for high-yield savings accounts are from online banks, not the traditional brick-and-mortar shop down the street, which might pay a 0.1% return, for example, McBride said.

    Things to consider for cash

    There are of course some considerations for investors to make.
    People always question which is better, a high-yield savings account or a CD, Cheng said.
    “It depends,” she said. “High-yield savings accounts will provide more liquidity and access, but the interest rate isn’t fixed or guaranteed. The interest rate will fluctuate, nor your principal. A CD will provide a fixed guaranteed interest rate, but you give up liquidity and access.”

    Additionally, some institutions will have minimum deposit requirements to get a certain advertised yield, experts said.
    Further, not all institutions offering a high-yield savings account are necessarily covered by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. protections, said McBride. Deposits up to $250,000 are automatically protected at each FDIC-insured bank in the event of a failure.
    “Make sure you’re sending your money directly to a federally insured bank,” McBride said. “I’d avoid fintech middlemen that rely on third-party partnerships with banks for FDIC insurance.”
    A recent bankruptcy by one fintech company, Synapse, highlights that “unappreciated risk,” McBride said. Many Synapse customers have been unable to access most or all of their savings.

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    Why fine wine and fancy art have slumped this year

    OENOPHILES, ART aficionados, petrolheads and all those who like the finer things in life have, alas, not had the best year. The prices of their luxury assets have tanked. An investor who put their money into art at the beginning of 2024 lost on average 16% by the end of November, according to the All Art index, a measure assembled by Art Market Research, which tracks sales at auction. Those who invested in fine wine lost about 11% over the same period, according to the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 gauge—the closest thing to a global benchmark for the wine industry. The price of diamonds has dropped by almost 20% and those of collectible cars are more or less flat. More

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    10-year Treasury yield back above 4.6% after mixed jobless claims data

    Treasury yields were slightly higher early Friday after a mixed set of data on weekly jobless claims.
    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was 3 basis points higher at 4.607%, slightly down from its peak earlier in the week but back above the 4.6% level it had not breached since May. The 2-year Treasury was fractionally higher at 4.334%.

    One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Yields move inversely to prices.

    After the Christmas break, jobless claims data released Thursday for the week ending Dec. 21 came in 1,000 lower at 219,000, below the 225,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones.
    However, continuing claims rose by 46,000 for the week ending Dec. 14 to the highest level since November 2021.
    The 10-year Treasury yield has risen more than 40 basis points in December as traders anticipate a more hawkish Federal Reserve in 2025. The central bank next meets at the end of January, when a rate hold is expected.
    Monthly data on wholesale inventories is due Friday. More